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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Victims coming out the woodwork.
Nothing but Trump defense from here on out.

Tough call for Trump, who does he attack here?

Options:
The press, the victims, somebody related to Clinton, 1990s era Donald Trump, 1990s era Hillary, 2016 Hillary (he probably won't), Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Milli Vanilli, Neil Young when he tried electronica for a few years oh god please never do that again, Pence or the 1997 Chicago White Sox?
 

shiba5

Member
Tough call for Trump, who does he attack here?

Options:
The press, the victims, somebody related to Clinton, 1990s era Donald Trump, 1990s era Hillary, 2016 Hillary (he probably won't), Paul Ryan, Newt Gingrich, Milli Vanilli, Neil Young when he tried electronica for a few years oh god please never do that again, Pence or the 1997 Chicago White Sox?

You forgot the Jews.
 
She is still a Republican pundit. She just hates Trump with the passion and fire of 100 suns going supernova simultaneously.

Yeah, Hillary has been messaged into being the Republican's Voldemort, yet they managed to nominate someone so vile that many can't even vote for him, despite her candidacy. Doenst necessarily mean they will vote for her, though.
 

thefro

Member
Here's the link to the Monmouth numbers
Trump 45
Clinton 41
Johnson 9
Other (less than 1%)

IN Senate
Bayh (D) 48
Young (R) 42
Brenton (L) 6

IN Gov
Gregg (D) 50
Holcomb (R) 38
Bell (L) 4


Evan Bayh has a lot of name recognition in Indiana. IDK about the governor race, but I assume it's partly a repudiation of Pence. He's not a popular governor.

Yeah, Holcomb doesn't have a lot of campaign money either given the timing, so Gregg has been able to define him as Pence Jr. Also he's kinda awkward in his TV ads, comes off kinda like Jeb in the GOP debates at his worst.
 
I think the Shy Tory effect will go both ways. A lot of brand name Republicans in conservative areas will vote for Clinton but aren't saying they will for fear of being ostracized.



Also I listen to Rush Limbaugh on the radio on my way to and from work at lunch just for laughs and he had a flight attendant on trying to work the story that the armrests don't go up.
 
I suspect a lot of those #NeverTrump/#NeverHillary Republicans will end up voting for Clinton when they're actually in the booth.

Only the politicians. Any other R who legitimately feels that way probably won't vote.

Literally 90% of Congress will vote for Hillary though. I'm lookin' at you, Quantum Superposition Ryan.
 
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 43m43 minutes ago
Situation not improving for Dems in Ohio. As of yesterday, ballot requests down from 2012 17.7% in Cuyahoga, was down 16.1% on Monday

DA FUCK

ADAM WTF ARE YOU DOING


lol Monmouth poll comes out and this one "leaks" (POS (R) poll):
Cuvke9qXYAAQ4S-.jpg:large



Pew Research poll:
Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 21m21 minutes ago
#National @pewresearch (9/27-10/10 RV's)

Clinton 46 (+7)
Trump 39
Johnson 10
Stein 4

H2H
Clinton 53 (+9)
Trump 44

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-co...14103737/10-14-16-election-update-release.pdf
 
Holcomb is also a pretty terrible candidate all around. It's fortunate that the Republicans weren't able to find a better candidate when Pence left the race.
 
The numbers for Monmouth's Indiana polls came out

Trump 45
Clinton 41
Johnson 9

They pointed out that Trump held a 7-point lead (45-38) in their first two nights of polling, Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday night, after the news of accusations of sexual assault against Trump, Clinton held a 46-44 lead.

Bayh (D) 48
Young (R) 42

Good news for Young: he's unknown to 54% of the electorate, implying he has room to grow. Bad news: The election is like, three weeks out. This is like a bizarro Florida where a reasonably decent candidate is floundering after a popular incumbent (former incumbent in Bayh's case) parachuted in at the last minute.

Also the Libertarian candidate is scooping up 6% - if that holds it's going to be impossible for Young to win.

Governor

Gregg (D) 50
Holcomb (R) 38

Gregg at 50 is probably the most encouraging news for Democrats here.

States that are closer than Pennsylvania: Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Utah, Alaska. Am I missing anything?
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Aren't those OH ballot requests merely referring to the county with no party breakdown? Therefore MAYBE indicating it could be down because of disenfranchised republicans? That's how it was reported earlier this week.
 
hi7finwec4gfohznjqdj.gif


Debate 1) Initiate Opposition Dumps, establish modus operandi

Debate 2) Play it safe, make sure Trump survives through the second debate to prevent GOP from completely abandoning him

Intermediate: Anyone who decided to stay with Trump after initial plan will now be tied with Trump when the real bombs start to drop

Debate 3) Finish Trump with a massive volley of obvious bait that he will be forced to eat. Trigger him in massive quantities to make the likelihood of a major meltdown extremely likely

Final Leg: Watch Trump implode, dump opposition the moment a story starts to go cold

ee70fcd0f0f3a361ccd88a9376a9ccb11e74fa969c8a5128820641cd063689b2.jpg
 
Aren't those OH ballot requests merely referring to the county with no party breakdown? Therefore MAYBE indicating it could be down because of disenfranchised republicans? That's how it was reported earlier this week.

Aren't those Democratic strongholds? Hard to put all the blame mostly on Rs.
 
Yea. She may be passionate about arguing with idiot Trump surrogates, but when it comes time to act and vote she's full of shit. Really irritating

She's been great at Trump bashing, but exclude that and she's a fucking nut. Just check out her multiple appearances on Bill Maher. So annoying and derpy.
 

Gotchaye

Member
On privacy:

Clearly there could be something in hacked emails that the media could reasonably make a big deal out of as a scandal. If there's an exchange where Podesta is talking about having to figure out how to pay the people that Clinton hired to attack the embassy in Benghazi, that should be covered and should be covered as evidence of a big problem with Clinton. Suspicion that this is in his emails doesn't justify hacking, but if the hacking has already happened it's often going to be reasonable to talk about what's already been made public.

I think the problem with the media coverage is less about Podesta's right to privacy and more about a failure to contextualize. Like, it's stupid to make a thing out of the reference to Catholicism having "severely backward gender relations". Basically everyone would agree that there is a perfectly respectable opinion along the lines of "Catholicism should ordain women and put a lot more focus on things other than abortion", and in private conversations people just aren't going to go as far out of their way to be respectful. This shouldn't be talked about just because there's no news value here at all, and people like Bill Donahue should be shamed for their overwrought statements in response. Basically, this is "locker room talk". Almost everyone sometimes talks this way about ideologies they disagree with when speaking to people they're familiar with and agree with.

Still the media should spend some time talking about the hacking itself too. Clearly a much bigger story than anything in Podesta's emails is that this seems likely to be a continuation of Russia's campaign to interfere in US elections. You can simultaneously think that we should be talking about interesting stuff in the hacked emails and that we should be very mad about the hacking. What we should be mad about is not really the violation of Podesta's privacy - that's not that big a deal - but the reason that Podesta's privacy was violated. Watergate wouldn't have been such a big thing if the burglars had just been regular burglars, who'd happened to steal something politically useful. It was a big thing because Nixon was behind it, and he did it to try to influence an election.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
Aren't those Democratic strongholds? Hard to put all the blame mostly on Rs.
True and yes they are. I do know that Romney still got an excellent chunk of his vote from that region so it may not be bad for Dems... Certainly not good though. Ohio is shaping up to be the closest state of the election.
 

Grief.exe

Member
hi7finwec4gfohznjqdj.gif


Debate 1) Initiate Opposition Dumps, establish modus operandi

Debate 2) Play it safe, make sure Trump survives through the second debate to prevent GOP from completely abandoning him

Intermediate: Anyone who decided to stay with Trump after initial plan will now be tied with Trump when the real bombs start to drop

Debate 3) Finish Trump with a massive volley of obvious bait that he will be forced to eat. Trigger him in massive quantities to make the likelihood of a major meltdown extremely likely

Final Leg: Watch Trump implode, dump opposition the moment a story starts to go cold

Podesta playing 12D chess while eating creamy Risotto.
 

rjinaz

Member
Ryan trying to make his best case for why people shouldn't let the Republican party fall crumble around them.

Good luck with that, party currently being led by a serial sexual assaulter.
 
Clinton's camp has to have picked up on the fact that voters have zero attention span and are quick to forget whatever the latest Trump fuck up is. I think oppo here and there to make sure early voters are reminded of how awful he is, then the big one Monday the 7th. It seems like when Trump's stank is fresh in the air, voters reject him willingly, but as soon as they get a few calm days, they slide right back into GOP apathy.

Edit: His bounce backs have become slower and smaller though, so that is good. The bus tapes surely pushed many firmly into the never Trump camp and won't ever come back.
 
Just cast my ballot for the Dem ticket here in Albuquerque. First time early voting, and it was 11 minutes well spent. Feels really good to have that out of the way.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Wonder if Scalia were still alive if the GOP would be more willing to take the L.
I wonder this every day.

It's one thing for a SCOTUS seat to be theoretically possible. But here, with that seat sitting empty, with the very real chance that the court flips and thus ends much of their social legislative agenda.. that has to weigh differently on their minds.

..

I've been busy, but I can't express how happy I am with Bayh hanging tough in Indiana. Our Senate chances look sooo much better with his race looking probable.
 
Just cast my ballot for the Dem ticket here in Albuquerque. First time early voting, and it was 11 minutes well spent. Feels really good to have that out of the way.

Good on you. Next step: wait for someone to invent a technology that allows everyone who can prove they'ave already voted to not be shown any political advertisements on TV or the Internet after their vote has been cast. Early voting would go through the roof.
 
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