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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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R

Rayme

Member
Dominican Power said:
Just saw Ana Navarro on The Daily Show. Says she's gonna write in her mother. All that shit she's talking about Trump and she can't even vote for Hillary Clinton. What a fucking joke. I'm probably gonna hate her after the election is over.
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Grief.exe said:
Would not have expected that.
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That's not quite accurate.

She said that if Clinton is clearly winning Florida (where she'll be voting), and is up by +6, then she'll write her mother in, but if it's a close race...

I don't think she said the exact words (because why get caught in the soundbyte), but she described a scenario that 100% implies a Clinton vote.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Huh? Ohio is way more valuable. I get that we've made gains elsewhere because of the South Atlantic but Arizona for Ohio isn't a nice trade.

Also that Bayh poll gives me life.
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Actually it is. It's not just about the state but the demographics of the state. We are broadening the map which helps us offset loses elsewhere. The GOP may hold on to a swing states, but we making new swing states that they have to defend. We're now in a position where we do not need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina or Iowa to win the presidency. I'd take the L in Ohio for the win in AZ easily.
 
H

Hindl

Member
Man I hope my mail in ballot gets here in time. Still over 3 weeks to go so it shouldn't be a problem but still.
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Huh? Ohio is way more valuable. I get that we've made gains elsewhere because of the South Atlantic but Arizona for Ohio isn't a nice trade.

Also that Bayh poll gives me life.
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He may mean in a more symbolic sense. Arizona's always been considered a deep red state whereas Ohio has recently been "the" swing state.

It may not be worth the trade in terms of electoral votes, but a scenario where Arizona gets flipped would show how fractured the conservative vote was, as well as possibly highlighting the importance of the Latino/Hispanic vote.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
House GOP super PAC logs its largest fundraising haul ever
The super PAC working to protect the Republican House majority is ballooning with money from mega-donors determined to keep Paul Ryan as speaker, scooping up a record $31.3 million last quarter, officials told The Washington Post.

The Congressional Leadership Fund's staggering haul — more than nine times greater than what the group raised during the same period two years ago — was thanks mostly to Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson and his wife Miriam, who together gave the group $20 million. But several other first-time donors to the super PAC this cycle also stepped up with seven-figure checks. They include Arkansas-based poultry company owner Ronald M. Cameron ($2 million), Chicago hedge fund manager Kenneth C. Griffin ($1 million) and Houston Texans chief executive Robert C. McNair ($1 million), according to officials. The super PAC must file its latest finance report with the Federal Election Commission by Saturday.

The surge of cash was driven largely by donors who have a relationship with Ryan and see the group as one of the best ways to assist him, said Mike Shields, president of Congressional Leadership Fund.
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I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Atomic Playboy said:
Good on you. Next step: wait for someone to invent a technology that allows everyone who can prove they'ave already voted to not be shown any political advertisements on TV or the Internet after their vote has been cast. Early voting would go through the roof.
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That's a genius idea. I've had a similar, if more sinister thought: would it it constitutional to tax eligible, registered voters who don't vote? Not that I think it's a good idea; I just wonder why it's never happened. It seems like an easy way to raise money, and from a constituency that by definition wouldn't oppose it.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
adam387 said:
Actually it is. It's not just about the state but the demographics of the state. We are broadening the map which helps us offset loses elsewhere. The GOP may hold on to a swing states, but we making new swing states that they have to defend. We're now in a position where we do not need Ohio, Florida, North Carolina or Iowa to win the presidency. I'd take the L in Ohio for the win in AZ easily.
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Isn't trading a red state going purple for a larger purple state going red a bad deal though? I get that other places on the map have opened up, but we have yet to see if NC or AZ will turn as solid as Virginia did. Celebrating CO as a Virginia esque pull also seems premature since it's a bad state for Trump in a way it wasn't for Romney. I imagine it would definitely be competitive for a Republican that isn't bleeding college white voters.

Larger demographic shifts are definitely good for us, though, so maybe I'm just underestimating how solid the pickups will be in 4-8 years.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump is really going to say that the allegations are false because they were published in a newspaper partially owned by a man of Mexican and Arab heritage.

How well will this speech be received.
 
E

Eusis

Member
Overhearing in class people talking about how Trump "just said bad things" and how some of them said worse (though at least one of them recognized it was reprehensible), putting this as between choosing that or someone "who needs no explanation", Reddit being mentioned, going third party, going down the rabbit hole of information, how no one was talking about Wikileaks...

Well shit, I'm actually witnessing in person the kind of young people that buy into this crap.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Isn't trading a red state going purple for a larger purple state going red a bad deal though? I get that other places on the map have opened up, but we have yet to see if NC or AZ will turn as solid as Virginia did. Celebrating CO as a Virginia esque pull also seems premature since it's a bad state for Trump in a way it wasn't for Romney. I imagine it would definitely be competitive for a Republican that isn't bleeding college white voters.

Larger demographic shifts are definitely good for us, though, so maybe I'm just underestimating how solid the pickups will be in 4-8 years.
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I'm on my phone so forgive any typos. If we lose Ohio it won't be by a lot. It'll be a swing of a point or two at most. A pickup in AZ is bigger, at least OPTICALLY because it's a larger swing. It's also indicative of us consolidating western support which is more important, to me at least, than holding onto a tiny Marcin in the mid west. Ohio is a bad fit for Hillary for a few reasons, least if which is we haven't kept up with dev demographic shifts.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Diablos said:
AZ instead of OH is a nice trade
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0606dc9e03f7bd8f603e121d2d8f9bb36b98fb7a8a2540ff35757bd10a91d8c0.jpg
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump is really going to say that the allegations are false because they were published in a newspaper partially owned by a man of Mexican and Arab heritage.

How well will this speech be received.
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That is so unbelievably racist...

Trump really is just the personification of everything that's wrong with America
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Eusis said:
Overhearing in class people talking about how Trump "just said bad things" and how some of them said worse (though at least one of them recognized it was reprehensible), putting this as between choosing that or someone "who needs no explanation", Reddit being mentioned, going third party, going down the rabbit hole of information, how no one was talking about Wikileaks...

Well shit, I'm actually witnessing in person the kind of young people that buy into this crap.
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Trump: Sexually assaulted dozens of women according to dozens of women and according to Trump himself

Hillary: Deleted emails

This is the contrast that everyone needs to bring up.
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
Syncytia said:
As much as I'm exciting for Arizona going blue, our 11 electoral votes don't quite match Ohio's 18. But the fact that we're talking about Arizona going blue is pretty huge itself.
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The other nice thing about AZ going blue, and Florida going solid blue, is that it demonstrates that the Latino vote is increasingly more important than the white vote, and you can't afford to continue hemorrhaging Latino support or you're going to see Texas become a swing state, which wipes out any gains Republican's could hope to see in Ohio or the corn belt. Anything that convinces Republicans that they can't take a hardline "everyone but white people is suspicious and probably a terrorist" stance going forward is going to help. Screaming "ban them all" doesn't curry favor with minorities who are already here, and this election is demonstrating that very clearly.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
adam387 said:
I'm on my phone so forgive any typos. If we lose Ohio it won't be by a lot. It'll be a swing of a point or two at most. A pickup in AZ is bigger, at least OPTICALLY because it's a larger swing. It's also indicative of us consolidating western support which is more important, to me at least, than holding onto a tiny Marcin in the mid west. Ohio is a bad fit for Hillary for a few reasons, least if which is we haven't kept up with dev demographic shifts.
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If I'm reading this correctly, Ohio isn't turning red so much as Hillary is a bad candidate for the state, so presumably a future Democrat with a different coalition (say Amy Klobuchar or another union-y Midwest Democrat) will still keep it competitive? That makes more sense if I'm reading this right.
 
E

Eusis

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump: Sexually assaulted dozens of women according to dozens of women and according to Trump himself

Hillary: Deleted emails

This is the contrast that everyone needs to bring up.
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They probably buy into his flat denials. Last time that happened we had Cosby, and he straight up denied something that was pointed out had been outright recorded (supporting Iraq War.) It really is baffling people keep acting this way (never mind whatever conspiracy crap they're lapping up.)

I'm really not a confrontational person though, and I'd rather be confidently equipped with knowledge to destroy them rather than going "well, uhh, you're wrong and fuck you."

EDIT: There was also talk of wanting to vote 3rd party, so at least that shows some dislike to Trump too.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Bartels and Achen don’t have Trump in mind in their book (recall that despite its May 2016 publication date, the research is much too old to address him explicitly) and are concerned primarily with academic theory rather than practical reform.

Their message, however, is loud and clear: It is simply much less likely than one would hope that the voters, in their wisdom, will prevent flagrantly unqualified candidates or people with terrible ideas from obtaining high office. Partisan loyalties are largely built up from fundamental group identities rather than based on profound ideological commitments, and swing voters swing in large part for no good reason at all — maybe because of a recession, but maybe because of a swing in global oil prices or because the Steelers lost or almost anything else.

To the extent that democratic political systems work — and they mostly do work — it’s because these electoral impulses intersect with important aspects of elite control. A given state or congressional district may choose to be represented by someone unsuitable for office, but to make a big difference as a legislator you need to be able to collaborate effectively with others.
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http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/14/12663318/bartels-achen-democracy-for-realists

I'd argue that people can find political loyalty and identity in other forms besides political parties. Conservative radio and media is a good example. The far right who listen to that crap identify with those people politically more than their representatives. That is why they push back on attempts at immigration reform by Republicans because conservative talk radio is telling them that is a disaster.

I think it would also be interesting to look more closely at protest politics and more left political believes at colleges. There you can find a group and a space where you can form an identity around that, that isn't limited to political party identification.

People simply might grow out of that as they grow older not because they 'grew up' 'became more cynical' or whatever, but that they simply lost a significant of that identity forming mechanism. Sure, there is far left leaning news out there, but it is a lot less saturated than conservative news media.
 
S

Syncytia

Member
Atomic Playboy said:
The other nice thing about AZ going blue, and Florida going solid blue, is that it demonstrates that the Latino vote is increasingly more important than the white vote, and you can't afford to continue hemorrhaging Latino support or you're going to see Texas become a swing state, which wipes out any gains Republican's could hope to see in Ohio or the corn belt. Anything that convinces Republicans that they can't take a hardline "everyone but white people is suspicious and probably a terrorist" stance going forward is going to help. Screaming "ban them all" doesn't curry favor with minorities who are already here, and this election is demonstrating that very clearly.
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If Texas is close I think that will be a bigger deal than AZ blue. 2008 and 2012 went red by about 10 points, and 1996 went to Clinton. Texas has had a much larger margin towards republicans, hovering around 20+ points, except for 2008.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Atomic Playboy said:
The other nice thing about AZ going blue, and Florida going solid blue, is that it demonstrates that the Latino vote is increasingly more important than the white vote
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This is a really poor way to phrase this as the Latino vote is noway even a threat of becoming more important than the white vote that is ~70% of the electorate.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Even if some states like OH are shifting more red, states like FL and NC completely offset it.

CO and VA look like they could be about as "swing statey" as the fools gold Republicans usually go after at this point. If FL and NC keep shifting as well, those four states create an incredible firewall.

Trump could win WI, MI, PA, IA and OH(states people all act like will eventually shift red even with no real proof) and still lose with the NC, FL, VA and CO firewall.
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
Protein said:
Just a heads up, I've been constructing a huge list of every horrible policy, scandal, and offensive statement Trump has stated or proposed. The list will be properly sourced. I will post a draft when I feel it's ready then possibly a polished version in OT.
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God's work, etc etc
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Off to a blistering start on the seventeen accusers before the end of this topic bet. Trump is goddamn disgusting. Vile.
 
G

glaut

Neo Member
Zukkoyaki said:
True and yes they are. I do know that Romney still got an excellent chunk of his vote from that region so it may not be bad for Dems... Certainly not good though. Ohio is shaping up to be the closest state of the election.
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Romney didn't do well. Obama did the best in Cuyahoga for any presidential candidate since LBJ according to the election results despite low turnout.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Grexeno said:
No. It's only this close because Trump is the nominee.
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but consider all of the new voter registrants this year who will vote again in 4 years. I think Trump pushes Texas from an R 12-16 to R 5-10. Further campaigning and GOTV can push it further towards Democrats as demographics shift.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
glaut said:
Romney didn't do well. Obama did the best in Cuyahoga for any presidential candidate since LBJ according to the election results despite low turnout.
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You're looking at percentages and not raw vote total. These blue counties are the most heavily populated parts of the state so even Romney drew a large chunk of his vote from them.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
HanShotFirst said:
but consider all of the new voter registrants this year who will vote again in 4 years. I think Trump pushes Texas from an R 12-16 to R 5-10. Further campaigning and GOTV can push it further towards Democrats as demographics shift.
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Think of all the new voter registrants this year who are only voting because Trump is the nominee.
 
M

mo60

Member
Grexeno said:
No. It's only this close because Trump is the nominee.
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I don't think we are going to see the next republican candidate do like 10 percent better in texas than trump does in this election. More like 5 or less. It's possible texas changes from a solid republican state to a likely/lean republican state in future elections to.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
Trump: "They say she's doing debate prep, but she's just resting, she's just resting."
Crowd: "LOCK HER UP, LOCK HER UP!"

How dare she rest!!
 
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