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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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M

Manmademan

Member
Blader said:
Or Trump himself. How often did he outperform his polling in the primary?
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BSsBrolly said:
He underperformed almost every time, if I remember correctly.
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Not exactly. this is where Trump ended up, per politico.

poll%20performance_zpstvgpvudk.png


Trump ended up overperforming his polls- but generally this was only in northeastern states where he has no actual shot of winning in a general election, and arizona, for some reason- possibly because white republican voters there are more receptive to the "build a wall" immigration narrative..

States with strong conservative populations and swing states he either underperformed or was on par.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Garland knew this was a part of the game. His feelings won't be hurt. If Hillary wins I would hope that Obama withdraws his name. The temptation of having three SC judges appointed during his presidency will be great, and obviously it's Obama's right to appoint this judge...but I prefer the "fuck you" message it would send by withdrawing him. Especially since democrats will take the senate.

Voters have not punished republicans for their obstruction and this WH didn't either (when it had the chance). There should be consequences, and in this case it should be a liberal judge in his/her 40s or 50s.
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Is there even any evidence that Hillary wants to expend political capital on an SC nom in her first 100 days of office? I doubt she does. She will get her shot at nominations and my guess filling scallops seat with Garland in the meantime won't bother her in the least.


Edit: lol Scalia's seat. I'm leaving it scallops is more fun.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
Plinko said:
Am I the only one who finds these videos beyond pointless? I watch them and no matter how hard I try I cannot for the life of me figure out why they're made. Are they supposed to be funny? Critical?
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I think they're literally the funniest things this election cycle.

This one is less funny than horrifying but Vic and @darth are 2016's Nate Silver.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
sc0la said:
Is there even any evidence that Hillary wants to expend political capital on an SC nom in her first 100 days of office? I doubt she does. She will get her shot at nominations and my guess filling scallops seat with Garland in the meantime won't bother her in the least.


Edit: lol Scalia's seat. I'm leaving it scallops is more fun.
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That's what i'm calling him from now on.
 
A

ArkhamFantasy

Member
sc0la said:
Is there even any evidence that Hillary wants to expend political capital on an SC nom in her first 100 days of office? I doubt she does. She will get her shot at nominations and my guess filling scallops seat with Garland in the meantime won't bother her in the least.


Edit: lol Scalia's seat. I'm leaving it scallops is more fun.
Click to expand...

So she is most likely going to nominate Garland?
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
sc0la said:
Is there even any evidence that Hillary wants to expend political capital on an SC nom in her first 100 days of office? I doubt she does. She will get her shot at nominations and my guess filling scallops seat with Garland in the meantime won't bother her in the least.


Edit: lol Scalia's seat. I'm leaving it scallops is more fun.
Click to expand...

I don't think a SC nomination expends a whole lot of political capitol. It's a normal process of government that everyone forgets about like a week after it finishes.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Political capital isn't a real thing.
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More or less, Except for something major like getting Obamacare passed. The drawn out process really dampened the Dems' support in 2010.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
sc0la said:
Is there even any evidence that Hillary wants to expend political capital on an SC nom in her first 100 days of office? I doubt she does. She will get her shot at nominations and my guess filling scallops seat with Garland in the meantime won't bother her in the least.


Edit: lol Scalia's seat. I'm leaving it scallops is more fun.
Click to expand...

This is the main reason why I see Garland remaining her pick, and that he won't be confirmed in the lame duck session. If the GOP is going to eventually cave on the vote, why wouldn't the GOP Senate extract some effort and political capital to get it? It also gives the GOP more time to turn the nomination process into a carnival, throwing red meat to the base, and slowing down any policy proposals Clinton would rather be working on.
 
S

shiba5

Member
kevin1025 said:
CNN just played part, where he mentioned that Michelle said, "if you can't take care of your home, right? You can't take care of the White House." Something to that effect.
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More sexism! I bet the GOP never thought they'd have to win back white women after this election.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
China has to know it's a bad look that the Philippines only became friends with them after they started being ruled by a psychotic killer who hates the idea of human rights, right?

The Philippines were our allies forever, guys :(.

Obama has been so impressively patient in not assassinating Duterte and hanging "drug dealer" from his neck afterward.
 
R

Revolver

Member
Plinko said:
Am I the only one who finds these videos beyond pointless? I watch them and no matter how hard I try I cannot for the life of me figure out why they're made. Are they supposed to be funny? Critical?
Click to expand...

I was beginning to think I was the only one. I feel like an old man yelling "get off my lawn!" but I don't get it. People get enjoyment out them so oh well.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Why are Republicans like "look at Obama leading from behind, he's cost us an ally in the Philippines!"

Motherfucking cumstains, Duterte is a mass-murderer with no connection to reality. I don't think "leading from behind" is the reason this psychopath has decided to break up with us over us criticizing his pro-rape, pro-murder stances.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
The thing about Duerte is that he says this crap and then walks it back like a day later.

edit: the cyber, which we are terrible at, so far behind, will dominate the news today. I don't recall an attack this widespread in a very long time.
 
Wiz

Wiz

Member
The tweet:

Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton‏ @HillaryClinton
Where was this kind of comedy last night?
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
The results are in on the final debate and it is almost unanimous, I WON! Thank you, these are very exciting times.
Oct 21, 2016, 1:51 PM
 
L

Loxley

Member
studyguy said:
SECRET DEMOCRATS FAM
They're hiding in the bushes, under cars, under your desk, in your wives and daughters!
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Wisconsin voter here, I'll be going with my mom this afternoon to vote early. My dad is a red-blooded Republican all the way and is begrudgingly supporting Trump, whereas my mom is a moderate who tends to lean to the right. I have no idea who she's voting for, but I know she doesn't like either candidate much at all.

I'm crossing my fingers she'll secretly vote for Hillary though.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Political capital isn't a real thing.
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Energy, time, bandwidth, media cycles. whatever you want to call it.

To be clear I mean if the senate decides to confirm in the lame duck. Why wish Obama to rescind nom then?new nom in first 100 days is a distraction. If they continue to stall, sure retract it.
 
S

Snake

Member
Catching up on the last few pages, and it's always the same fantasies from too many posters in need of a reality check.

Seriously:

1. Garland will not be pulled after Hillary wins. He's going to be the next justice on the Supreme Court and that's a good thing. The ONLY chance he isn't appointed is if Republicans refuse to move forward in the lame-duck session and Garland himself decides Hillary should get her own pick and withdraws his name. And that's not likely.
2. Obama will not be on the Supreme Court. It's a bad idea and people really need to get past the notion.
3. There is no killer oppo and there never was. Do not believe insiders, be they on twitter or this very forum. Even people with access are just as prone to believing rumors and being strung along by others on the inside.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Oh.

CvS4skwXgAEengh.jpg:large


Oh.

@electionsmith
Update by @Mdixon55 indicates that more than 72k new voters have registered during FL's extended deadline
http://politi.co/2eOtzVY
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Turns out it might not be so bad for Dems in NC as it seemed:

@gercohen
NC early voting backloaded this year. (first 7 days added per 4th Circuit) Total site hours will be up 13% from 2012 for whole 17-day run.
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@gercohen
day 1 early vote subject to adjustment up tomorrow morning due to late reporting counties and later evening hours. 2012 totals were finals
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J

Joeytj

Banned
whyamihere said:
Oh.

CvS4skwXgAEengh.jpg:large


Oh.



Turns out it might not be so bad for Dems in NC as it seemed:
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Awesome.

There has literally been no evidence of "secret" Trump voters, and there's actually more evidence now of higher Hillary voter turnout.

Just checked out FiveThirtyEight's poll updates, and there has only been shitty quality polls since the debate, ugh. No movement either way, but I wish good pollster would hurry up. We should be looking at the first full effects of Wednesday's debate by tomorrow in higher quality polling.
 
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