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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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I think you're taking this far too personally here. There is no shade being thrown at Bernie or his supporters.

The conventional wisdom was that Hillary had a strong base of support among white working class voters in the 2008 primary. And, while she did very well with them, it wasn't because they really liked her policies. It was because she was white. That is why she did so well in West Virginia and Oklahoma as opposed to this year. She benefited from being white in 2008, because, as much as we hate to admit it, there are racists in the Democratic party.

In 2016, Bernie benefited from what I would argue is a similar dynamic, but based more on gender than race. (Although, because Hillary did argue that she was a continuation of the Obama presidency, there may have been a small racial component as well.) He also benefited from being "not Hillary," in the same way Obama did in 2008. That's not to say Bernie's voters were racist or sexist. There were some racists and sexists in his coalition, just as there were in Hillary's.

The argument that the article was putting forward was what we were talking about. Hillary didn't have some huge advantage with white working class voters. (Neither would Bernie, to be honest once we get to the general.) A lot of his voters in West Virginia, for example, always intended to vote for Trump. Hillary's 2008 advantage with white, working class voters wasn't entirely based on her platform, just as Bernie's advantage with them in 2016 wasn't entire based on his platform. (Unless, we want to argue that conservative Democrats have suddenly turned into socialists.)

Hot take: While Bernie might still be winning, I think his position in the polls versus Trump would be worse than Hillary's.
 

Fladam

Member
Texas local news lead stories include the Fort Worth Star-Telegram editorial board "saying NO to Trump".

I'll be turning Texas blue personally next week.
 

Teggy

Member
James O'Keefe
‏@JamesOKeefeIII
Anything happens to me, there's a deadman's switch on Part III, which will be released Monday. @HillaryClinton and @donnabrazile implicated.

I guess we're getting more. And lol that someone is trying to kill O'Keefe. Sure, dude.
 

thebloo

Member
Hot take: While Bernie might still be winning, I think his position in the polls versus Trump would be worse than Hillary's.

I agree with this.

Also, a bonus from reddit.

eNq8Dk5.jpg
 

mo60

Member
I guess we're getting more. And lol that someone is trying to kill O'Keefe. Sure, dude.

I wouldn't be surprised if the guy gets sued heavily by someone eventually. There will be a point when he does something stupid to someone way more powerful then him and gets sued heavily by that person. Youtube(I think) and other sites willl probably get rid of the video when he posts it.
 
Let's compare Senate models:

The Upshot: 65% (tied for highest Democrat chances they've had)
538: 70.3%
DailyKos: 58%
PEC: 79% (believe this is the highest in quite some time)

Feels like we're hitting a bit of a consensus. Should be a deluge of polling starting this weekend.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Anyone who thinks Clinton is stupid enough to do something to get herself directly implicated in obvious fraud is an idiot.
 
Hot take: While Bernie might still be winning, I think his position in the polls versus Trump would be worse than Hillary's.
Agreed. We would not be talking about Georgia, Arizona or (LOLOLOLOLOL) Texas. I also think NC would be a loss at the end of the day. Maybe we'd be doing a bit better in Iowa, but that's the only state I can really say would be trending our way more with Bernie. A lot of the Trump stuff would have been neutered with Bernie as the nominee. As nothing as his letter about women fantasizing about rape was, the right would have spun that like no one's business. The gender gap may have been narrower, and I highly doubt we'd have people like Meg and other moderate Republicans on our side.
 

Boke1879

Member
Yea man. Scream from the rooftops like someone is actually trying to kill you and announce what you're doing on Monday.

If it's something juicy. You release it now. He just wants eyes on it. He's trying to be like Assange.


and what the fuck at that Trump quote?
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
I think you're taking this far too personally here. There is no shade being thrown at Bernie or his supporters.

The conventional wisdom was that Hillary had a strong base of support among white working class voters in the 2008 primary. And, while she did very well with them, it wasn't because they really liked her policies. It was because she was white. That is why she did so well in West Virginia and Oklahoma as opposed to this year. She benefited from being white in 2008, because, as much as we hate to admit it, there are racists in the Democratic party.

In 2016, Bernie benefited from what I would argue is a similar dynamic, but based more on gender than race. (Although, because Hillary did argue that she was a continuation of the Obama presidency, there may have been a small racial component as well.) He also benefited from being "not Hillary," in the same way Obama did in 2008. That's not to say Bernie's voters were racist or sexist. There were some racists and sexists in his coalition, just as there were in Hillary's.

The argument that the article was putting forward was what we were talking about. Hillary didn't have some huge advantage with white working class voters. (Neither would Bernie, to be honest once we get to the general.) A lot of his voters in West Virginia, for example, always intended to vote for Trump. Hillary's 2008 advantage with white, working class voters wasn't entirely based on her platform, just as Bernie's advantage with them in 2016 wasn't entire based on his platform. (Unless, we want to argue that conservative Democrats have suddenly turned into socialists.)

Some context.

<- White guy from Oklahoma

So yeah, I might be just a little offended when somebody says that ultimately what drives the vote of the Dem WWC is racism.

Side note: Sean Braddy is an independent running for senate in Oklahoma, is black, and our local BoBers love him.
 
A lot of the Trump stuff would have been neutered with Bernie as the nominee. As nothing as his letter about women fantasizing about rape was, the right would have spun that like no one's business.

Trump clearly had problems dealing with a woman attacking him the way Clinton did during the debates and it feels like that performance was pivotal to where we're at now (cruising to an easy win). Carly also dealt him some killer blows he had a problem responding to.

In comparison, he shredded the other Republican men in the primary.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at that guy from SUNY saying Trump has an 87% chance of winning and that every other poll is garbage. Sure thing.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
LOL at that guy from SUNY saying Trump has an 87% chance of winning and that every other poll is garbage. Sure thing.
Remember during the primaries when some college that had gotten the presidency correct for like a century predicted Bernie would be president?
 
Trump clearly had problems dealing with a woman attacking him the way Clinton did during the debates and it feels like that performance was pivotal to where we're at now (cruising to an easy win). Carly also dealt him some killer blows he had a problem responding to.

In comparison, he shredded the other Republican men in the primary.

As a man you can't really "go after" women as viciously as you would another man, it comes off as threatening/bullying/etc. You have to moderate your responses, and most men do this whether they know it or not.

Think back to the biden/palin debate. No one had any illusions that biden could have torn her to pieces (as he ABSOLUTELY did to Ryan 4 years later) but being TOO mean would have backfired on him. The challenge there was defending against insane statements without looking like a bully. With Ryan? didn't matter. gloves came off.
 
Dems in Iowa under 35k ballots requested behind, 85% of where they were at this point in 2012

Republicans have barely been budging for the past few days.
 
Some context.

<- White guy from Oklahoma

So yeah, I might be just a little offended when somebody says that ultimately what drives the vote of the Dem WWC is racism.

Side note: Sean Braddy is an independent running for senate in Oklahoma, is black, and our local BoBers love him.

Again, that's not what anyone said. No one said the sole factor for a white working class person to vote is racism or sexism. But, to pretend that there wasn't a subset of Hillary '08 supporters and Bernie '16 supporters who were slightly biased is just not factually accurate. No one said that was the ultimate drive.

Bernie's coalition is incredibly interesting, especially in what we would consider more conservative states. The most conservative voters in Oklahoma voted for Bernie. Of the 22% of people that said Hillary was too liberal, 69% of them voted for Bernie...who, you know, is a lot more liberal.

So to sum up:

No one is saying the main reason white working class Democrats vote is for racist reasons. However, we have evidence, based on previous voting patterns, that illustrate that some (SOME) people may have voted on racial or gender bias. And, the idea that Hillary had an advantage over Obama with white working class voters isn't something that new data confirms.
 

SexyFish

Banned
LOL at that guy from SUNY saying Trump has an 87% chance of winning and that every other poll is garbage. Sure thing.

Everyone wants to be the "everyone else was wrong but we were right" guy that appears on all the news programs and talk shows to make some cash.
 

Boke1879

Member
This election really is trying to be taken by conspiracy theorists.

17 more days. 17 more days.

Next two weeks are going to be rigorous IMO. Tons of campaigning from both and I think Trump will ramp up his attacks because he really has no other options.
 

Clefargle

Member
Uhm Trump what the fuck?

Remember, the current republicans hate ANY regulation. (Except against gay marriage) And since they already believe that all regulation is bad,cutting the total number of them every time you introduce a new one sounds like a good idea. Until you take it to its logical conclusion that is. Besides the fact that what makes regulation good or bad hinges on a number of complex factors that differ between people. There is a finite number of them. So if you went on and on cutting two for every new one you add, you would eventually run out. And republicans either like that idea because of inane libertarian notions of a teensy weensy government, or they never thought that far ahead.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Remember during the primaries when some college that had gotten the presidency correct for like a century predicted Bernie would be president?
They were probably right, but they hadn't factored Clinton Fraud™ into their calculations.
 
Dems in Iowa under 35k ballots requested behind, 85% of where they were at this point in 2012

Republicans have barely been budging for the past few days.

I read an article, and I'll see if I can find it later, that said the Dems started working on the absentee ballots later this year intentionally. I'm not sure if that's true, but I saw it on a diary on Kos. It linked to a story. I'll check later.
 

rjinaz

Member
Next two weeks are going to be rigorous IMO. Tons of campaigning from both and I think Trump will ramp up his attacks because he really has no other options.

Yeah I think so too. Even if an oppo doesn't drop, really the only play Trump has is to go nasty. Too late to turn it around even if he wanted to try. So he'll finish this thing playing to his base.

Him catering to the 'no government" loons today shows that.
 

Iolo

Member
I read an article, and I'll see if I can find it later, that said the Dems started working on the absentee ballots later this year intentionally. I'm not sure if that's true, but I saw it on a diary on Kos. It linked to a story. I'll check later.

It's true. It was a gamble and we'll see if it worked very soon.

Remember during the primaries when some college that had gotten the presidency correct for like a century predicted Bernie would be president?

We got Scholastic on our side tho
 
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