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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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R

Rockin' Ranger

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
Are any of you planning your post-election conversations with your Trump-supporting family members who were or still are 100% certain of a landslide victory for their favorite fascist?
Click to expand...

An uncle if mine called my dad panicked by the fact that their sister is voting for Hillary. I asked my mom why he even cared since they're voting in Minnesota it's not like it will really matter. She responded, "well they're taking about voting for president."

"But they're voting for president in Minnesota. Trump is not going to win Minnesota."

"Oh, he might. You don't know that." Was the reply I got.

I considered going into if how no one is even bothering to poll Minnesota because there's basically no way Hillary doesn't win the state, or the fact that if Trumo was even competitive in Minnesota then it wouldn't matter either because he'd be doing well enough to have won enough other states to win the presidency but figured at that point it really wasn't worth talking about anymore.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Rockin' Ranger said:
An uncle if mine called my dad panicked by the fact that their sister is voting for Hillary. I asked my mom why he even cared since they're voting in Minnesota it's not like it will really matter. She responded, "well they're taking about voting for president."

"But they're voting for president in Minnesota. Trump is not going to win Minnesota."

"Oh, he might. You don't know that." Was the reply I got.

I considered going into if how no one is even bothering to poll Minnesota because there's basically no way Hillary doesn't win the state, or the fact that if Trumo was even competitive in Minnesota then it wouldn't matter either because he'd be doing well enough to have won enough other states to win the presidency but figured at that point it really wasn't worth talking about anymore.
Click to expand...

facts are pointless when talking to people who make decisions based on "gut feeling", which is where just about all Trump voters are right now.

just smile and nod and enjoy the Landslide on november 8th.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Rockin' Ranger said:
I considered going into if how no one is even bothering to poll Minnesota because there's basically no way Hillary doesn't win the state, or the fact that if Trumo was even competitive in Minnesota then it wouldn't matter either because he'd be doing well enough to have won enough other states to win the presidency but figured at that point it really wasn't worth talking about anymore.
Click to expand...

Minnesota is a toss up at RCP.
lol
 
N

nature boy

Member
Manmademan said:
There's going to be a LOT of people surprised when these rarely polled red states start falling like dominoes.

Indiana had the same RCP margin as TEXAS.

The GOP is Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper fucked
Click to expand...

Yep, Indiana might be the Secret State that no one talks about. But we're not going to get a lot of polls from Indiana, but it might make sense to pump some resources there.

Gotta wait tomorrow for Texas.
 
R

Rockin' Ranger

Member
Hopfrog said:
Please proceed former governor.

Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer: Hispanic Dems ‘Don’t Get Out And Vote’

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jan-brewer-says-hispanic-democrats-dont-vote
Click to expand...

tumblr_nkepckpeJb1silxrio1_500.gif


Iolo said:
Minnesota is a toss up at RCP.
lol
Click to expand...

Decided to check and sure enough no October polling, 2 local and one national polls in September. People seem dying to know how things look in this toss up state.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Rockin' Ranger said:
Decided to check and sure enough no October polling, 2 local and one national polls in September. People seem dying to know how things look in this toss up state.
Click to expand...

No polling in clinton heavy states is whatever.

No polling in states that were assumed to go Trump is going to bite a lot of people in the ass.
 
P

Paskil

Member
Hurray, local news!

Peanut butter vandal mistakes gathering for Trump rally
http://www.nbc15.com/content/news/P...akes-gathering-for-Trump-rally-397892331.html
WSAW-TV reports (http://bit.ly/2ed1plv ) that investigators say the Monday night conservation group meeting in Amherst had nothing to do with politics.

Authorities say the 32-year-old woman was drunk when she entered the meeting and began yelling about how she hates Trump. She departed when asked to leave, but authorities say she then used peanut butter to draw phallic symbols and write profanities on vehicles outside. An incident report said the woman's blood-alcohol content was 0.218, about 2 1/2 times the state's legal limit for driving.
Click to expand...
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Manmademan said:
There's going to be a LOT of people surprised when these rarely polled red states start falling like dominoes.

Indiana had the same RCP margin as TEXAS.

The GOP is Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuper fucked
Click to expand...

Its really had for me to see how the GOP House survives a scenario where Trump loses by 10 points, Indiana an MO go blue, and Texas is within 5. Given the turnout gap, Trump's weakness in suburbia, and the types of margins we're looking at, that's all still on the table.
 
C

Chase17

Member
Just mailed out my vote. Feels good to have that done with.

Don't let me down NH!
I couldn't convince my siblings to fill out an absentee ballot. If the worst happens blame me.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Pyrokai said:
If Texas went blue......Omg I'm hard just thinking about it.
Click to expand...

would be a tough pickup.

Polling there is abysmal- it's all over the place. everywhere from Trump +2 to Trump +25 in the last month or so. We're probably not going to get anything resembling legitimate polling out of there before the election hits.

Trump has been weaker than Romney pretty much everywhere, and Texas has been getting bluer gradually. I think McCain's 2008 number is probably his high mark there and that's being optimistic.

McCain won texas by 12 points in 2008. Romney won it by 15.

If Clinton has over a 10 point margin nationally, that would put Texas in play, due to demographic shifts.

Gruco said:
Its really had for me to see how the GOP House survives a scenario where Trump loses by 10 points, Indiana an MO go blue, and Texas is within 5. Given the turnout gap, Trump's weakness in suburbia, and the types of margins we're looking at, that's all still on the table.
Click to expand...

It can't. I've been saying the house is GONE for weeks now- this has been obvious since the first debate polls started rolling in.

Gerrymandering has absolutely destroyed the GOP and they never saw this coming. They have right now 55 districts that lean R+4 or less. None of those are going to survive a scenario where clinton is +9, +10, +11 nationally.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Manmademan said:
would be a tough pickup.

Polling there is abysmal- it's all over the place. everywhere from Trump +2 to Trump +25 in the last month or so. We're probably not going to get anything resembling legitimate polling out of there before the election hits.
Click to expand...

You're getting a CBS/YouGov Texas poll tomorrow.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
nature boy said:
You're getting a CBS/YouGov Texas poll tomorrow.
Click to expand...

that's only one poll, no matter who is doing it.

we'd need consistent polling from a number of legitimate pollsters before I'd say "ok, yeah this is where texas is."

there simply isn't time to get that kind of investment in texas going before november 8th.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Grief.exe said:
So Jill Stein wants to dissolve NATO as well? The question specifically asked if Russia used the same justification for Ukraine to invade Estonia, a NATO country. Jill dodged the question and then made the argument that NATO needs to be dissolved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBi3f8mL3zo
Click to expand...

this is new in American politics but not so new in fringe parties in Europe.

Putin has managed to extend his Chaos of funding fringe parties/ candidates (doesn't matter if they are Left or Right, as long as they are EU skeptic and anti-NATO) across the Atlantic into USA (Trump + Stein)
 
T

Third Strike

Member
Manmademan said:
would be a tough pickup.

Polling there is abysmal- it's all over the place. everywhere from Trump +2 to Trump +25 in the last month or so. We're probably not going to get anything resembling legitimate polling out of there before the election hits.

Trump has been weaker than Romney pretty much everywhere, and Texas has been getting bluer gradually. I think McCain's 2008 number is probably his high mark there and that's being optimistic.

McCain won texas by 12 points in 2008. Romney won it by 15.

If Clinton has over a 10 point margin nationally, that would put Texas in play, due to demographic shifts.



It can't. I've been saying the house is GONE for weeks now- this has been obvious since the first debate polls started rolling in.
Click to expand...

It'll also be interesting to see how states that had their maps changed through federal litigation will fare out. They're still gerrymandered, but not on the basis of race like they were previously. NC's infamous snake district is now defunct, and the districts don't look as bad as they previously did.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Manmademan said:
that's only one poll, no matter who is doing it.

we'd need consistent polling from a number of legitimate pollsters before I'd say "ok, yeah this is where texas is."

there simply isn't time to get that kind of investment in texas going before november 8th.
Click to expand...

You'll see more polling if she's under 5.

Although I agree it's too late to setup a decent infrastructure.

CoffeeJanitor said:
He said non left leaninh
Click to expand...
Wapo is not left leaning
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Hopfrog said:
These people...

Pennsylvania GOP Files Federal Lawsuit To Allow Out-Of-County Poll Watchers

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/pennsylvania-gop-federal-lawsuit-out-of-county-poll-watchers
Click to expand...

this is a brilliant idea. Let's send racist white "poll watchers" into west philadelphia to harass black people on election day.

If those people come out of there with their skins intact I'd be amazed. There is absolutely NO tolerance for conservative bullshit around here.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
nature boy said:
You'll see more polling if she's under 5.

Although I agree it's too late to setup a decent infrastructure.
Click to expand...

I doubt we'll see much polling. We have almost no polling of Iowa, and the quality of the polls we do have in traditional swing states are non-existent. Mainly because, like, this is pretty much over. I can't imagine a lot of people want to waste the money.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If the BLACKS are really living in Hell, then I'd love to see white people go into HELL and "watch" them vote. No one is signing up because they're afraid.
 
N

nature boy

Member
adam387 said:
I doubt we'll see much polling. We have almost no polling of Iowa, and the quality of the polls we do have in traditional swing states are non-existent. Mainly because, like, this is pretty much over. I can't imagine a lot of people want to waste the money.
Click to expand...

Because it's 6 EV. Texas is 38. If it's close, you'll see more polls.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
adam387 said:
I doubt we'll see much polling. We have almost no polling of Iowa, and the quality of the polls we do have in traditional swing states are non-existent. Mainly because, like, this is pretty much over. I can't imagine a lot of people want to waste the money.
Click to expand...

the presidential is, but you may see a lot more discussion about where the house is going to end up if hillary's margin is high enough.

up to this point the narrative has been "democrats can't win that, it's out of play" but that isn't true, and the MSM will catch on to this eventually.

state by state polling will give you the best idea of who is actually vulnerable in the house and who isn't- house races virtually always track within the national margin by a couple of points- ticket splitting for house races largely doesn't exist.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
haha we've actually done 94 polls in the last week but that just doesn't leave a lot of time for public polling...

And, according to them, these 94 polls would be a 7-8 on the Dem Happiness Scale
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
adam387 said:
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
haha we've actually done 94 polls in the last week but that just doesn't leave a lot of time for public polling...

And, according to them, these 94 polls would be a 7-8 on the Dem Happiness Scale
Click to expand...

what does that tweet mean :\
 
U

User 463088

Banned
sazzy said:
what does that tweet mean :\
Click to expand...
They've been paid by campaigns/organizations to do polls. That means they won't release results, only the campaigns or groups they did the polls for. They've done 94 of them over the last few weeks, so they haven't had time to do public polls to just release for the lols. And, if we could see these polls, they'd be a 7-8 out of 10 on the Dem Happiness Scale
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Hey guys.

I got my 'Fuck That Orange Baboon' ballot in the mail today up in Washington.

My state is solid blue but I am pulling the by mail lever for Hillary, regardless.

It's actually a vote for Diamond Joe/ Elizabeth Warren in my heart.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
johnsmith said:
They're doing internals. And the results are good for us.
Click to expand...

adam387 said:
They've been paid by campaigns/organizations to do polls. That means they won't release results, only the campaigns or groups they did the polls for. They've done 94 of them over the last few weeks, so they haven't had time to do public polls to just release for the lols. And, if we could see these polls, they'd be a 7-8 out of 10 on the Dem Happiness Scale
Click to expand...

thanks!
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
If Trump supporters are watching the polls, then they aren't voting.
Click to expand...

they probably voted already (like very early in the morning) or plan to late in the day. Rural polling places are rarely busy and very much in-and-out.

it's probably more accurate to say if they're poll watching, they aren't engaged in any useful GOTV efforts that might drive participation, in favor of trying to depress democratic turnout using methods that will get them a punch in the gut, at best.
 
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