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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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P

Pyrokai

Member
Manmademan said:
It can't. I've been saying the house is GONE for weeks now- this has been obvious since the first debate polls started rolling in.

Gerrymandering has absolutely destroyed the GOP and they never saw this coming. They have right now 55 districts that lean R+4 or less. None of those are going to survive a scenario where clinton is +9, +10, +11 nationally.
Click to expand...

Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.
 
X

Xis

Member
Pyrokai said:
Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.
Click to expand...

Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Pyrokai said:
Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.
Click to expand...

That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
yDLDdu.png


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ig-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/
 
P

Pyrokai

Member
Xis said:
Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.
Click to expand...

sazzy said:
That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.
Click to expand...

Gotcha.... Interesting. I haven't followed for a couple days..... Is she up by 10 points right now???
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances
 
R

Revolver

Member
I hope after this election I don't have to hear the term "counterpuncher" ever again. There's a difference between defending yourself and being a thin-skinned crybaby that gets baited at the drop of a hat.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Started to watch and Trump immediately launched into voter fraud conspiracies.

Now onto conspiracies that James Comey (R) covered up Hillary Clinton's crimes.
Click to expand...



yep... it'll take a while for him to get through this

its same speech over and over and over again....

if the breitbart headline is any indication, he might launch into paul ryan again as well
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Chezzymann said:
Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances
Click to expand...
That's because of the lack of polling and insistence on including bullshit daily polls like Rass and LA Times
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Chezzymann said:
Over the past 5 days Hillary's lead has gone from 7.2 on RCP to 6.1, hopefully this trend wont continue, she's obviously gonna win but if this ends up being a closer win than we think that could hurt down ballot chances
Click to expand...

that IBD/TIPP poll started publishing its daily tracker this week.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Pyrokai said:
Wait....gone for whom? The GOP? I am operating under the assumption that the Democrats can't win the House BECAUSE it's gerrymandered.
Click to expand...

Xis said:
Gerrymandering spreads a large lead in one area into a small lead in several areas. It can backfire if things are lopsided enough.
Click to expand...

sazzy said:
That's likely to work only if Hillary wins by a low popular margin.

If she wins by 10 points nationally, then it won't.

Gerrymandering sacrifices high margins/less seats with low margins/high seats.
Click to expand...

Exactly. A simple explanation here is that republicans when gerrymandering didn't just pack democrats into small, high democratic districts, they also spread out their OWN highly republican districts to turn areas that were "even" or "leaning democratic" into republican areas.

a very simplistic example would be taking a district that leans republican by 10 points, and a district that's evenly split, and redrawing lines so you have two republican districts that are +5. Again, it's a simplistic example but this is exactly what the GOP ended up doing- sacrificing a lot of areas with heavily republican "lean" to create a lot of districts that are marginally republican:

. The chart below shows PVI ratings for all of the GOP’s House seats. Republicans hold 37 districts rated R+2 or lower and 18 at R+3 or R+4, for a total of 55 marginal districts. Democrats, by contrast, hold half as many.
Click to expand...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ig-gerrymander-could-backfire-in-a-major-way/

normally, a 4 or 5 point lean is VERY difficult for democrats to overcome, especially when you consider incumbents tend to have an advantage. Even in a presidential year the national margin is usually only about 3 or 4 points or so. Obama 08 was only 7 points, and that kind of candidate and the record breaking turnout that came with him doesn't show up all that often.

unfortunately, what seems to be happening here is that the republican party ended up running a candidate that was SO bad that they're looking at a historic loss of reagan/mondale proportions. Hillary has several polls in the 9, 10, and 11 point range and there is an argument (based on ground game, and unlikely voters showing up in record numbers) that these estimates are all lowballs. They're losing not only "contestable" districts, but they're losing districts that would have been safe if they had never gerrymandered in the first place.

it's absolutely a disaster.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump at Gettysburg complaining that the media won't cover the Ras poll feels sacrilegious.

Trump has become very anti-trust now that he thinks that corporations are against him.

edit: Trump fans are cheering wildly at Trump saying he will sue his accusers WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after he loses where he sues everyone.
 
O

Owzers

Member
kevin1025 said:
So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after where he sues everyone.
Click to expand...
There has to be a retaliation period folks, these are important issues we can't ignore.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Chezzymann said:
Oh is that why its changing every time I look at it? I was wondering why
Click to expand...
There have been no live phone polls. RCP isn't your best bet. I'd stick with Pollster. I believe RCP treats each daily tracker as a separate poll. This isn't a great policy. Plus, they include that stupid LA Times thing. God help me, but if you want a look at the polls, go with 538 or Pollster.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
I thought this was supposed to be a "serious" policy, "what I would do if I was elected" speech. I'm not listening to the speech (fuck Trump's voice) but looking at the chryons, this seems like a standard rally speech.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Jesus. At this point how can you watch Trump and feel anything but fear? This man is scary. I am watching this and am scared. He would attempt to kill democracy and is deranged with his conspiracies.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I'm sorry but "Mexico gets the cash, we get the drugs." is one of the worst parts of Trump's stump speech. The U.S.'s drug consumption leads to massive amounts of violence in Mexico!

I wish one person would call out this fucker on this.
 
T

thebloo

Member
Now he just dumped the (ok written) script and went on a rant on Mexico and China.
It's cool that it's easy to see when he's off prompter because he's so bad at reading.

He's starting to lay out the plan.
 
S

shiba5

Member
kevin1025 said:
So this Trump speech is a nightmare. He first sounded like he's dropping out, and now he's essentially laying out not the first 100 days in office, but the 100 days after he loses where he sues everyone.
Click to expand...

This sounds insane. How long before he says he will jail all his accusers? We can't be that far off.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
So he's going to do a constitutional amendment on his first day, then make term limits, and ban officials becoming lobbyists for five years. Sounds like a busy day, I guess.
 
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