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[whyamihere]

From Sam Wang:

The yellow is above the red line now. It's really happening, isn't it.

I feel like it's really hard to break through this numbers just because the next likely-Republican states would require a much bigger popular vote win.

 

[newjeruse]

I had a eureka moment while reading Scott Adams' most recent awful blog post.

The people voting for Trump not only know how unhinged, under-prepared, and unstable he is. That's exactly what they want him to be. They have such contempt for government, they want to completely blow it up from the inside. They want to wind Trump up and set him off. Not as a change-agent, but as a complete chaos candidate. Every time he says something hateful, uninformed, or provocative, he emboldens that plan.

 

[whyamihere]

Yup. There was a sense of entitlement on the part of Republicans back then - they deserved the White House. How dare this yokel from Arkansas glitch his way into the office?! He couldn't have done it without the help of that goofball Texan billionaire siphoning votes!

Or, at least, that's the message I heard from them back in '93. And as part of the "blame Perot" phenomenon, I saw these on cars all over the place:

I think that's a lot of it. Bill was this trashy grifter who took out a Bush! How dare he.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The WSJ with a strong Politico take.

New: Clinton ally gave $500K in campaign cash to wife of an FBI official working on Clinton email probe

https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790364877751783429

Wow, sounds bad, I wonder--

The political organization of Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, an influential Democrat with longstanding ties to Bill and Hillary Clinton, gave nearly $500,000 to the election campaign of the wife of an official at the Federal Bureau of Investigation who later helped oversee the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email use.

Campaign finance records show Mr. McAuliffe’s political-action committee donated $467,500 to the 2015 state Senate campaign of Dr. Jill McCabe, who is married to Andrew McCabe, now the deputy director of the FBI.

......

............................................................

This.... This is the most nothing nothing I've ever read.

The governor could recall only one meeting with Mr. McCabe—when he and other state Democrats met with the couple on March 7, 2015, to urge Dr. McCabe to run, according to the spokesman.

The FBI said in a statement that during his wife’s campaign Mr. McCabe “played no role, attended no events, and did not participate in fundraising or support of any kind. Months after the completion of her campaign, then-Associate Deputy Director McCabe was promoted to Deputy, where, in that position, he assumed for the first time, an oversight role in the investigation into Secretary Clinton’s emails.”

FBI officials said that after that meeting with the governor in Richmond on March 7, Mr. McCabe sought ethics advice from the bureau and followed it, avoiding involvement with public corruption cases in Virginia, and avoiding any campaign activity or events.

Mr. McCabe’s supervision of the Clinton email case in 2016 wasn’t seen as a conflict or an ethics issue because his wife’s campaign was over by then and Mr. McAuliffe wasn’t part of the email probe, officials said.

tl;dr

A spokesman for the governor said he “supported Jill McCabe because he believed she would be a good state senator. This is a customary practice for Virginia governors… Any insinuation that his support was tied to anything other than his desire to elect candidates who would help pass his agenda is ridiculous.”

 

[titiklabingapat]

Yup.

What is about the Clintons that just incites seething rage from Republicans elites? I mean, I know the answer, but it's going to be their undoing.

I think it was the beginning of the end of Reagan worship from the rest of the country that did them in.

 

[Wilsongt]

With how you all have gone on about oppo, I am surprised Kev hasn't changed the title to Kirby Give Oppo

 

[Suikoguy]

With how you all have gone on about oppo, I am surprised Kev hasn't changed the title to Kirby Give Oppo

If nothing drops by Wed, might as well not expect it.

 

[Teggy]

This will be your next CHECKMATE HILLARY! (Except it's nothing)

https://t.co/qSxVnuhKZk

Summary: A Terry Mcauliffe super PAC gave to a Virginia senate candidate. (SHOCKING!). The candidate's husband wound up involved in the email investigation, but this was prior to the investigation and he was promoted to that role after the donation was made so they didn't even know he would be involved.

EDIT: and of course someone posted about it while I was writing this...

 

[Cesare Borgia]

The Clintons were a conservative culture warrior's worst nightmare in the 90s. A pro choice hippie president who dodged the draft, married to an uppity woman who initially didn't take her husband's last name. That's the perception of the right. The Clintons represented an anti-American, anti God, anti family movement to them. Clinton winning his first term without a majority of the popular vote amplified the anger, and far right media quickly delegitimized him.

 

[RustyNails]

oops wrong thread

 

[whyamihere]

Florida:

@electionsmith
Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks. Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:
76% W
12% H
8% B

 

[Iolo]

And now conservatives are supporting a thrice married, serial sexual predator.

 

[TestOfTide]

The WSJ with a strong Politico take.



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790364877751783429

Wow, sounds bad, I wonder--




......

............................................................

This.... This is the most nothing nothing I've ever read.



tl;dr

I think I have the perfect name for this kind of bullshit:

"Six Degrees from Hillary Clinton".

It's like the one with Kevin Bacon, but involves money and conspiracies.

 

[Zackat]

best part about hurricane matthew was the few days when all the people came to pick up their signs from stoplights and corners

 

[Boke1879]

I think I have the perfect name for this kind of bullshit:

"Six Degrees from Hillary Clinton".

It's like the one with Kevin Bacon, but involves money and conspiracies.

"Someone not named Hillary Clinton donated to someone's wife"

Really reaching.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Where is George Soros in this story though, WSJ?

 

[Box of Kittens]

I was too young to really be politically aware in 1992 (I supported Bush because my parents did*), but I've read a lot about it. The mentality at the time was that the Republicans basically owned the White House and would continue to do so into the forseeable future. They had won 5 of the previous 6 presidential elections. Four of those wins were landslides, two of historic proportions. The one loss was a narrow one in the wake of a major scandal and a weak economy. Republicans were said to have an Electoral College "lock" based on states like Illinois, California, and New Jersey just being hopeless for the Democrats.

Bush's sky high approvals throughout much of 1991 did little to make anyone think this would change. Even as his approvals dipped below 50% heading into 1992, the prospect of a Democrat actually winning the presidential election was the subject of jokes. When Perot first started gaining traction there were serious predictions that the election would end up being a close race between Bush and Perot with Clinton an irrelevant third. Republicans were completely blindsided by the 1992 election. It was a major turning point in a lot of ways, as it was really the first Democratic presidential win that was powered by the coalition that largely defines the party to this day. Carter had more or less stitched together just enough of the old New Deal map to win. Clinton's map is substantially similar to Obama's (the main difference being a few Southern/Appalachian states that hadn't yet moved out of reach and which were superfluous to the outcome anyway).

*Years later I found out my dad had actually voted for Clinton.

 

[mo60]

I feel like it's really hard to break through this numbers just because the next likely-Republican states would require a much bigger popular vote win.

I don't think hilary will end up with 400 EV's because that would require a 12-14+ popular vote margin for her, but I wouldn't be surprised if a surprise state no one expected to go to her went to her if she won by a double digit margin. Like I wouldn't be surprised if a state like SD and AK went to her if she was crushing trump in the west and/or the midwest.

 

[Teggy]

And now conservatives are supporting a thrice married, serial sexual predator.

He found god recently, and they are all lying. Don't know what you mean.

 

[RustyNails]

That WSJ piece is playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Sloppy journalism.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Seriously.

That's going to be the party line for the next four years as they proceed to not make any of the changes necessary to be competitive in 2020.

Yeah, it's a clearly bogus line too. With the current demographic makeup of the country, it's really not likely that any current Republican could win without a Watergate scandal hanging over the sitting POTUS.

I always say this, but remember that Romney was the version of a Republican that everybody was scared would run this year, and Romney lost by over 100 EVs. You have to moderate more than Mitt Romney to win.

I'll get nervous about the White House when the GOP finds that candidate.

Yup.

What is about the Clintons that just incites seething rage from Republicans elites? I mean, I know the answer, but it's going to be their undoing.

The Clintons brought the Dems back from nothingness and heralded the end of the Reagan Years, which they still covet.

Yeah, it's because Bill was essentially the left-wing Reagan, and they're also a bit peeved that he didn't have Alzheimer's like Reagan did. I'd actually be a bit more worried about the GOP if they still had Ronny running around campaigning for them. But with his health benching him almost immediately after his term, they lost their shepherd and had to go it blind.

The Clintons wouldn't nearly be as hated by the GOP had they just backed off and left politics in 2000. Their long careers and standing popularity (keep bringing up Hillary's favorables, but she keeps winning elections!) are a constant thorn in the GOP's side, nationwide.

 

[PeteZaTheHutt]

Duke/Nugent 2020!

Campaign slogan:

"It's time to kick ass and chew bubble gum... and they're aaallllll out of gum!"

 

[j_k_redtail]

The Clintons were a conservative culture warrior's worst nightmare in the 90s. A pro choice hippie president who dodged the draft, married to an uppity woman who initially didn't take her husband's last name. That's the perception of the right. The Clintons represented an anti-American, anti God, anti family movement to them. Clinton winning his first term without a majority of the popular vote amplified the anger, and far right media quickly delegitimized him.

I think people often forget how different this country was in the early 1990s, especially with regard to gender.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I love how these insane conspiracies have to involve James Comey being a secret Democrat and a secret hardcore Democrat at that (to want to get involved with a major conspiracy that would end his career if found out just to protect Hillary... Whom he then harshly criticized....).

James Comey was appointed U.S. Deputy Attorney General by George W. Bush and then immediately investigated Bill Clinton's pardons.

 

[Wilsongt]

That WSJ piece is playing six degrees of Kevin Bacon. Sloppy journalism.

Can't be caught showing bias. Need to hit both candidates hard on the hard hitting hard issues, hardly.

 

[whyamihere]

1. Hillary finds out from Barack HUSSEIN Obama that McCabe is up for a promotion and would be on her email case.

2. Hillary knows she can't donate directly to McCabe, so uses her Clinton Foundation slush fund to pay-to-play-off her puppet, "Governor" McAuliffe.

3. In the middle of the night, the "governor" donates these formerly Qatari funds into McCabe's wife's account. The donation is labeled "Benjamin G. Hazi". She understands.

4. McCabe's wife then tells her husband that he is about to be promoted and that for her safety, he has to let Hillary off for her crimes. This is tearful, because she is obviously guilty and a monster and evil, but they have no choice.

 

[Debirudog]

Wall Street Journal sucks

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

If the Republican dominated FBI thought that there was no conflict of interest, what is the story?

 

[metalslimer]

I literally can't even at that WSJ story. At least there was some direct links with the Clinton Foundation story that one could maybe make a conclusion if they hate Clinton, but this is Reddit level conspiracy nonsense. The most obvious being that somehow paying off some employee of the FBI somehow managed to influence everyone else at the FBI including the director to think the case was worth it. James Comey must realize how how full of idiots his party is right?

 

[Boke1879]

If the Republican dominated FBI thought that there was no conflict of interest, what is the story?

There is none.

 

[sc0la]

Yup. I can't help but think he'd have better commercials if he asked her for some help. His commercials basically amount to: "I'm Chuck Schumer, I'm running for reelection, have a nice day."

Naw then they'd just call him a "try hard."

jk he has a penis! (I assume)

 

[Gruco]

I was too young to really be politically aware in 1992 (I supported Bush because my parents did*), but I've read a lot about it. The mentality at the time was that the Republicans basically owned the White House and would continue to do so into the forseeable future. They had won 5 of the previous 6 presidential elections. Four of those wins were landslides, two of historic proportions. The one loss was a narrow one in the wake of a major scandal and a weak economy. Republicans were said to have an Electoral College "lock" based on states like Illinois, California, and New Jersey just being hopeless for the Democrats.

Bush's sky high approvals throughout much of 1991 did little to make anyone think this would change. Even as his approvals dipped below 50% heading into 1992, the prospect of a Democrat actually winning the presidential election was the subject of jokes. When Perot first started gaining traction there were serious predictions that the election would end up being a close race between Bush and Perot with Clinton an irrelevant third. Republicans were completely blindsided by the 1992 election.

*Years later I found out my dad had actually voted for Clinton.

I was too young to follow politics at the time too, but one thing sticks out in my mind after reading that - an old SNL skit on the Dem Primary, which was premised as "the race to avoid being the guy who loses to Bush."

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hillary knows McAuliffe who donated to Jill McCabe who is married to Andrew McCabe who works with James Comey who pardoned Hillary.

It's obvious, wake up, sheeple.

 

[mo60]

Speaking of the seething hatred of the Clintons by the alt-right and other republicans I'm noticing the same thing with the left wing party(the Alberta NDP) in Canada. Some conservatives went insane when the Alberta NDP won the 2015 province election in a landslide.Some of the people on the right have been kinda nasty to the premier in the last year or so.The NDP having to deal with the poor ecnomic conditions in Alberta right now is helping to fuel the right wing's hatred of them. Some of the people on the right in Alberta are wishing for one of Harper's former cabinet ministers to win the nomination of the main center right wing party in Alberta and merge it some rural right wing party so the right can rule Alberta again. The good thing is that guy is so unpopular in Alberta that he probably won't be leading any party anytime soon and people within the center right wing party recognize that.

 

[8 X 11 Printer Paper]

Hillary knows McAuliffe who donated to Jill McCabe who is married to Andrew McCabe who works with James Comey who pardoned Hillary.

It's obvious, wake up, sheeple.

But where does Huma and Dr. Ben Gahzi fit into this?

 

[Box of Kittens]

I was too young to follow politics at the time too, but one thing sticks out in my mind after reading that - an old SNL skit on the Dem Primary, which was premised as "the race to avoid being the guy who loses to Bush."

I think some of the myth of Perot as spoiler was a cynical attempt to delegitimize Clinton's presidency, but some of it was really that they couldn't understand how they could lose the presidency and that was the only explanation that made sense to them, because everyone assumed the Democrats had no chance.

 

[leroidys]

Did you miss the subtle symbolism of putting the Jewish guy on a sign that says "GLOBALISM."



In case you didn't, here's Trump smashing the New World Order of Soros and Rothschild.

I also like how Obama gets to be a horrific half human chimera. That's what happens when you mix the races, right Mr. Garrison?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well when Hillary wins it's going to be 5 of the last 7 in wins and 6 out of 7 in popular vote

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Can I just say that driving through Arkansas is the worst.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Getting flashback vibes to 2008 today watching TV. Seeing the same kind of brutally negative ads against Clinton by PACs as I was seeing against Obama.

 

[sc0la]

I liked pepe.

Yeah. Racists ruined him. Shame really. He just wanted to pee with his pants down in peace.

 

[Barzul]

Got my girlfriend to register in FL and she'll be voting tomo. It'll be +1 for Hillary.

 

[mo60]

I think some of the myth of Perot as spoiler was a cynical attempt to delegitimize Clinton's presidency, but some of it was really that they couldn't understand how they could lose the presidency and that was the only explanation that made sense to them, because everyone assumed the Democrats had no chance.

No political party has held the presidency for more than 30 years straight if I recall in the US so eventually the GOP was going to lose an election without Perot being a candidate. It 's easier for a political party to govern a place for more than 30 years in the Western world if it's smaller like a province in Canada for example(Albertas and Ontario are the biggest example of one party/one ideology rule for an insanely long time in Canada).

 

[User 463088]

Florida:

If that would hold through election, that would be an increase of about 200k among Hispanic voters.

 

[Boke1879]

If that would hold through election, that would be an increase of about 200k among Hispanic voters.

Hope it does hold. I assume FL goes to us if that's the case.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

If that would hold through election, that would be an increase of about 200k among Hispanic voters.

That would be about a .4-.5% increase in D votes, correct?

 

[Boke1879]

Don't know if this was posted.

Jon Ralston
@RalstonReports
30,220 people had voted in Clark by 6 PM today. Was 26,000 on second day in 2012.

 

[Box of Kittens]

No political party has held the presidency for more than 30 years straight if I recall in the US so eventually the GOP was going to lose an election without Perot being a candidate. It 's easier for a political party to govern a place for more than 30 years in the Western world if it's smaller like a province in Canada for example(Albertas and Ontario are the biggest example of one party/one ideology rule for an insanely long time in Canada).

The longest streak was held by the Democratic-Republicans, who controlled the White House for 28 years. They were in a sense victims of their own success. By the end they had reduced their opponents, the Federalists, to a small regional party. The result was the splitting of the party into factions which would form the basis of the Democrats and National Republicans (later Whigs) who would be the main parties of the Second Party System.

The Republicans won six straight presidential elections beginning in 1860, which would be good for 24 straight years had Abraham Lincoln not run with a Democratic running mate, Andrew Johnson.

Democrats took five straight between FDR and Truman.

 

[Loudninja]

Don't know if this was posted.

Yeah it was posted.

Looking good so far.

 

[Makai]

Alaska lean R on 538 :u