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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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T

Tarydax

Banned
Cerium said:
An interesting exercise in alternate history: When Hillary left the White House she considered running for senate in Illinois, her birth state, rather than New York, a state she had no connection to until Bill started up the foundation. She chose New York for various reasons, one being that there was a vacancy in 2000 whereas she would have had to wait until 2004 in Illinois.

Of course the man who eventually took that Illinois seat in 2004 was Barack Obama.

What if she had waited?
Click to expand...

Woah.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
CoffeeJanitor said:
That would be about a .4-.5% increase in D votes, correct?
Click to expand...
This is back of envelope math, just so we're aware.

According to Pew, in 2012, 17% of Florida voters were Hispanic. That means there were 1.4 million Hispanic voters in 2012. Obama won 60% (864k) and Romney won 39% (545k). There's no way Trump gets 39% of the Latino vote, but let's say he does. If Hispanic turnout would mirror early voting absentee throughout the election (and it may not, this is just talking!) Hispanic turnout would be somewhere around 1.7 million.

BUT, look at this:

According to this new poll that just came out today, Trump is only getting 23% of the Hispanic vote in Florida. That would give him a total of around 391k votes and Hillary would end up with 1.19 million.

Meaning, Obama's margin was plus 319k
Hillary's margin may be around 800k.

Meaning, just among Hispanic voters, she may increase her raw vote total by 480k over Obama.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
adam387 said:
This is back of envelope math, just so we're aware.

According to Pew, in 2012, 17% of Florida voters were Hispanic. That means there were 1.4 million Hispanic voters in 2012. Obama won 60% (864k) and Romney won 39% (545k). There's no way Trump gets 39% of the Latino vote, but let's say he does. If Hispanic turnout would mirror early voting absentee throughout the election (and it may not, this is just talking!) Hispanic turnout would be somewhere around 1.7 million.

BUT, look at this:

According to this new poll that just came out today, Trump is only getting 23% of the Hispanic vote in Florida. That would give him a total of around 391k votes and Hillary would end up with 1.19 million.

Meaning, Obama's margin was plus 319k
Hillary's margin may be around 800k.

Meaning, just among Hispanic voters, she may increase her raw vote total by 480k over Obama.
Click to expand...

I'm still baffled it's not lower than his black vote. Seriously, what gives? Why is his hispanic vote not his lowest? He started this whole thing by saying their all murderers and rapists.
 
Y

YaBish

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Oklahoma is worse.
Click to expand...
I'd argue strongly for Kansas being worse, only because it's boring as sin, there's only country and Christian radio stations, and both times I've driven all the way across the state, I've gotten pulled over for random bs that didn't stick.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Veelk said:
I'm still baffled it's not lower than his black vote. Seriously, what gives? Why is his hispanic vote not his lowest? He started this whole thing by saying their all murderers and rapists.
Click to expand...
I had a teacher once who became and voted republican because someone told him "Mexicans vote democrat" and he wanted to buck expectations/stereotypes. Seriously that was the reason he gave.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I've had the good fortune not to have had to drive through any of the Plains states. Every account makes them sound like dreadful drives. As a kid my least favorite was New York. It takes forever and the Thruway is so boring (at least until you hit Utica or so and the terrain starts to become a bit more interesting).
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump really wants to eliminate the first amendment just because media outlets write negative stories about him, lol.

CvgUWR_WAAAR6hc.jpg


https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/790404291546738688
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Veelk said:
I'm still baffled it's not lower than his black vote. Seriously, what gives? Why is his hispanic vote not his lowest? He started this whole thing by saying their all murderers and rapists.
Click to expand...
Older Cuban voters are very Conservative and very Republican. He's doing really badly with them, but he's winning enough to get around 20-25% of the vote overall.
 
L

LotusHD

Banned
Veelk said:
I'm still baffled it's not lower than his black vote. Seriously, what gives? Why is his hispanic vote not his lowest? He started this whole thing by saying their all murderers and rapists.
Click to expand...

Lol, personally I always felt like the black community is the best at calling out BS in politics, i.e. Trump and the Republican party in general this time around. Dude pissed us off the minute he started that birther nonsense with Obama.
 
M

mo60

Member
adam387 said:
Older Cuban voters are very Conservative and very Republican. He's doing really badly with them, but he's winning enough to get around 20-25% of the vote overall.
Click to expand...

I still expect him to get below 20% of the hispanic vote nation wide. In some states like florida he will definitely got over 20% hisapnic support.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
Posted? Obama and Issa are "friends."



CvgOYugXgAAQwLs.jpg:large
Click to expand...

Lol, I saw this earlier and it is delicious. I feel like the next two weeks are going to be Obama getting payback, Senate race by Senate race, district by district for all of the shit he's had to put up with from the GOP for the past 8 years. I love the President's willingness to call out each individual Republican who is trying to weasel their way to victory in a moderate state or district.
 
T

Teggy

Member
If this many people are voting early it just shows how broken a system that has expected every person to vote on a single regular work day is.
 
M

Makai

Member
"I've been doing this a long, long time and these races go up and down and up and down," Zogby said. "We still have 18 days to go, that means 18, maybe 36 news cycles as well.

"You see still a very passionate Donald Trump support, I see three credible polls that are out there that show Donald Trump getting 85, 89 percent of Republican support, winning among whites, winning by double digits among men, leading in two of those polls tied in another.

"For the umpteenth time, it's way too early and we don't know who's going to vote."
Click to expand...
Funny coming from the guy who kept predicting Trump's doom in the primary.
 
C

CCS

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump really wants to eliminate the first amendment just because media outlets write negative stories about him, lol.

CvgUWR_WAAAR6hc.jpg


https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/790404291546738688
Click to expand...

Spoilers: You do not want our system.

A science writer (Simon Singh) was sued for libel by group of chiropractors because he said that many chiropractic treatments were not effective and based off shitty science. A court recognised that was he said was true, but ruled against him anyway.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
I still remember Zogby appearing on The Daily Show shortly before Election Day 2004 saying Kerry was going to win.
Click to expand...
To be fair to Zogby, that was a close election.

Still they are fucking dumb here. This race is beyond over. Everyone knows it. And early votes in battleground states is very promising as well.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I could be off given that we're talking about 12 years ago, but my memory was Stewart asking Zogby who was going to win in a way that really sounded like he expected an evasive answer and then looking surprised to get a confident reply of "Kerry." Sadly I bought into the unskewing of that cycle, namely the notion that you couldn't take polls at face value because the undecideds were going to break for Kerry.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
My wife and I dropped off our ballots today, here in Oregon. So +2 Hillary, not that she was worried about it.

Filling out the ballot from your living room sofa, with a big voter information packet and googling stuff you want to know more about is a pleasant voting experience. As was going for a short walk and dropping the ballots into the ballot drop box. On a Sunday! It's fucking criminal that the rest of the country doesn't vote this way.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Cold open from SNL was the weakest of the three debate ones IMO but this part was a highlight

https://youtu.be/-kjyltrKZSY?t=313

If it does't load up at the time go to 5:12

McKinnon is so good at capturing a version of Clinton that I think is a heightened version of Clinton if she was actually allowed to let loose more.
 
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