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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Slayven

Member
Billy Bush gets $10 million settlement to leave NBC.

So Billy Bush gets a $10 million parachute. Cool. cool coolcool
It is what it is. That is a small fraction of what he would have made if he had continued on his career path. Dude is radioactive now
All these Podesta emails are damaging in that they are broadcasting to Republicans about the Dem's strategy.
Imagine if Karl Rove and his crew was running shit
As shitty as his behavior was don't feel bad for NBC. Don't sign shitty contracts and police your talent.
Yeah NBC new talent is going to have sign contracts that are tight as fuck
 

Iolo

Member
What will you do after 4-5 hours, when you become bored with VR?

YxpQY3k.gif
 
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Aaron Burnside, 23, a first-year law student at Ohio State, supported Gov. John Kasich during the Republican primaries but said he might not vote next month
The Kasich demographic, 20 year olds who look like 40 year olds.
 

Slayven

Member
Who else looked at that picture and expected the caption to say that this photo was taken in 1963

*raises hand*

He looks like he is looking for a payphone to plug a dime in and yell to his editor "Stop the presses"

Oddly enough he could get away with a fedora
 

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
USC/LATimes poll director basically admits the 19-year old black is responsible for the increase in AA Trump support that Nate Cohn figured out:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-daybreak-poll-questions-20161013-snap-story.html

What a shitstorm.

Headline: No, one 19-year-old Trump supporter probably isn't distorting polling averages all by himself.

Body: Basically confirming everything the NYT story said, a 19-year-old black Trump supporter is totally distorting their model for African-Americans. But they pretend that 10% jumps in the AA vote is actually statistical noise. Then use margin-of-error as a smokescreen to handwave away the problems in this poll's methodology and sample.

Here's the truth. There's two major problems in their poll's methodology.

1. They perform extreme weighting on groups that they don't have a statistically significant number respondents in. It sounds like they have only TWO young black men in their entire sample. Which is not enough to create a representative sample of ANYTHING. If you're going to perform weighting, you need to have a statistically significant sample of respondents in that sample so that you are weighting a number that is representative of the entire population. The young black vote is not going to be 50/50 or 100/0 and so it makes no sense to do extreme weighting on those numbers, because you're not going to get a representative result.

2. They have a fixed sample. I think having a fixed sample is probably going to alter the behavior of some of their respondents, as their population becomes biased towards respondents who are willing to be part of such a fixed sample. Which could skew the results one way or the other.
 
Masto seems like a good politician, Joe Heck looks so nervous... Heck keeps doing all these weird nervous ticks, keeps rolling his pen around in his fingers, blinking a lot.
 

Joeytj

Banned
I know nothing about polling methodology. Would polling be able to account for potential depressed R turnout?

In theory, that's what likely voter models are for, to make sure the people you are polling are actually going to vote, and not just registered to vote.

If suddenly, there's a whole bunch of registered Republicans thinking of sitting out the election, then they will no longer become likely voters and their preferences won't show up in polls, meaning HIllary will take a larger lead in likely voter models.

But, there's a lot of if's and's or but's there.
 
I don't know where to post this with so many Trump threads...

But wow is Trump in full meltdown mode. He's handling the wave of accusers in the absolute worst way. Just from a political standpoint, he has zero discipline. Instead of keeping a calm demeanor and refuting the allegations with some kind of facts or counter-testimony, he's bashing these women's appearances. If that's his best defense then he's basically just confirming his guilt. I bet his hired campaign staff is on suicide watch right now.

Trump has lost the election. He's basically waving the white flag himself. It's now just a matter of how much it'll affect other GOP down-ballot races. Personally I think the effect will be minimal because Trump is such an anomaly. But I do think any Congressman who is in a purple state/district and still strongly endorses Trump will be in big trouble now. But due to gerrymandering I just don't think there are that many districts that fall into that category, which are in play.
 
So here's a fun problem that Trump couldn't have fixed post-convention. Even if he pivoted and went super presidential, and planned to actually try at the debates and whatnot, he'd still be super fucked thanks to his complete lack of good surrogates.

All of the ones he has are washouts. Giuliani, Christie, Pence, etc... all have no political future left to them, and that's why they don't mind shacking up at Trump Tower to squeeze what they can out of this. If Trump actually wanted to drop back for a week and do debate prep, who the hell is going to stand in his place for a week? Who could give speeches and hold rallies like Michelle and Obama? Who could go on the talk shows and light up the anchors and the Clinton surrogates with sharp campaigning?

They've got no bench, and even if Trump fixed himself, he'd still be one guy trying to win a game of football by himself. This election is going to be a great case study for a lot of different strategies that most campaigns just do as a habit. We've talked a lot about ground game, but this total lack of campaign surrogates is another serious problem. You simply can't be everywhere at once, and if you piss off the party of established (elected) officials, then you're just hurting yourself for no reason.
 
So the Nevada senate debate is on now and it's been about 22 minutes of Catherine Cortez Masto biting into Joe Heck'a jugular. Everything from Trump to him denying he voted to shut down the government. Just brutal.
 

Cerium

Member
Masto seems like a good politician, Joe Heck looks so nervous... Heck keeps doing all these weird nervous ticks, keeps rolling his pen around in his fingers, blinking a lot.

Good, we need more talented Latino Democrats on the national stage.

If she's a good politician she can be VP or even top of the ticket in 2024.

Does she speak Spanish?
 
Trumps campaign advisor just said on CNN that hes very bothered by the tape and thinks you should take these accusations seriously and take them for their word, and that trump should reel it in and let people like him deal with it

I bet hes holding back so much rage right now
 

Boke1879

Member
Trumps campaign advisor just said on CNN that hes very bothered by the tape and thinks you should take these accusations seriously and take them for their word, and that trump should reel it in and let people like him deal with it

I bet hes holding back so much rage right now

What's the name of the advisor?
 

HylianTom

Banned
With so many pivotal Senate races taking place within contested states, imagine how horrible the GOP is going to feel if Trump's refusal to build a ground machine costs them just enough Senate seats to lose the chamber.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Apparently Trump tore apart a teleprompter after it broke on him? What? Anyone know anything about this?

I would love to hear more on this.

Trumps campaign advisor just said on CNN that hes very bothered by the tape and thinks you should take these accusations seriously and take them for their word, and that trump should reel it in and let people like him deal with it

I bet hes holding back so much rage right now

We're gonna need the name of this surrogate.
 
Okay, I'm going to chuckle a bit at Masto calling out others for being "Washington politicians."

You are replacing Harry Reid and have his machine behind you, lol.
 
Ooof. CCM didn't take pay when she was furloughed and Heck took pay during the shutdown.

She murdered him. That's an ad.

RIP Joe Heck. Why did we doubt Harry Reid?
 
The nightly news cast all played Trump making fun of the accusers' and Hillary's appearance and that's a wrap for this week. This week has been about Trump's relentless misogyny in over drive, Jesus.

Three and a half weeks to go.
 
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