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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
"I'm not saying it but I want people to think it" is so chickenshit. We all can hear you so own up to your garbage.
 

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
Ooh. Nebraska numbers.

@davesund: VBM Requests:
D 30,910 46%
R 23,408 35%
I 11,881 18%
Total 66,768

@davesund: vs. 2012 Requests:
D 26,019 118.8%
R 23,560 99.4%
I 10,070 118.0%
Total 59,980 111.3%

EDIT: This seems just to be NE-2
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Texas also has a lot of educated suburban voters that typically trend heavily Republican, Trump is weak there where a different candidate won't be. There's also the part where a 2020 race is almost certainly going to be more competitive overall and not have Hillary up by these margins these large nationally.
That may be a bigger factor: according to exit polls (which have problems) Obama only had a slight advantage in the suburbs both times he was elected. Whether Hillary can hold her larger margin with college educated voters in 2020 is also suspect.

There's little doubt in my mind 2020 will be a difficult race simply because a party holding the presidency for four terms hasn't happened over fifty years. Of course, the Republicans could fuck up horribly again with another terrible candidate (Paul LePage for example), but that would require an even greater level of incompetent leadership than what got them in this mess.
 

Holmes

Member
Ooh. Nebraska numbers.

@davesund: VBM Requests:
D 30,910 46%
R 23,408 35%
I 11,881 18%
Total 66,768

@davesund: vs. 2012 Requests:
D 26,019 118.8%
R 23,560 99.4%
I 10,070 118.0%
Total 59,980 111.3%
Lack of enthusiasm from Republicans + more enthusiasm from Democrats in Omaha and Lincoln.
 
Hilarious that they're calling it Trump International Hotel on his schedule, though it's going to be changed to Scion, isn't it?

And the media learned their lesson, they won't go near this.


They're going to change the name, but they don't want to name it after a Toyota brand lol.

The media has no choice, he's the R nominee, they have to tag along
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Oh man, yesterday was so awesome.

I went to Vegas over the weekend and Obama was having a rally. So we wait in line for several hours and with about 20-30 people still ahead of us, and the event organizers told us that the stadium was full so we couldn't go in but could watch Obama speak from the outside area on the big screen. Naturally pissed off, I wanted to leave, but we decided to stay just on the off chance we would still be able to get into the stadium.

So we go inside the school, but outside the stadium in the quad, and we're watching a bunch of random Nevadans give speeches. As I'm heading off to the bathroom, I notice that the crowd suddenly starts cheering wildly, and I'm thinking there could only be one reason for that. Obama decided to make a quick appearance outside before he went into the stadium! It was a token gesture since we weren't able to go inside and he felt bad about it (typical Obama...). I didn't get to meet with him personally, but I was about ten feet away from him!

Made the whole trip to Vegas totally worth it. :D
 

witness

Member
Well +2 for Hillary and Murphy today in Florida as my wife and I voted after work. It was actually a very nice experience. No line, volunteers were super nice, easy process, it was in a beautiful park, and it was fed into the machine and immediately counted. Couldn't have been easier.

For Queen and Country
 

Grief.exe

Member
In 2020 Texas will be more Republican than this year, probably by a good margin.

I saw it trending the other way with increased Latino population and more educated people moving to the metro areas.

I see Ohio trending more Republican in subsequent years.

2020 sees a small number of next generation voters, who are more diverse, and likely even more educated, than millennials.

It's remarkable that the existence of Fox News is not hardcore enough to satisfy people's desire of a 100% pure echo chamber so things like Breitbart and Trump TV now exist.

When you're worldview is so broken and untenable you have to keep fleeing to increasingly friendly media to enforce it.
 
Can we ban the word oppo

Let's just replace it with Gabbo

Gabbo-is-coming.jpg
 
What exactly are poll-watching attorneys going to do anyways? What can they do?

They can troll heavily Black/Latinx areas, questioning as many voters as possible, slowing the process, and possibly extending the wait time.

PA is especially susceptible to this since their laws allow poll watchers to request an affidavit from someone the voter knows to verify their identity.

On that day in 2004, students who were challenged by the GOP lawyers were told they needed to find a friend who could sign an affidavit proving their identity and residence. Other battleground states, concerned that their voter-challenge laws could be misused, have limited or even abolished them in the past decade. But Pennsylvania hasn’t modified its rules. That worries election experts, who fear Donald Trump’s persistent calls for supporters to monitor the polls to prevent cheating could create conflicts and chaos inside and outside of precincts across the state.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ennsylvania-polls-voters-trump-clinton-214297
 
Man the thought of McCain, Issa, and Mia Love losing is too much, I'm getting too excited. Yea yea McCain will win...but even if just Issa and Love lose I'll be satisfied as hell.
 
Man the thought of McCain, Issa, and Mia Love losing is too much, I'm getting too excited. Yea yea McCain will win...but even if just Issa and Love lose I'll be satisfied as hell.

I'm seeing comments from Trump supporters on media outlets' (think Columbus Dispatch) posts about the election where they write "I voted for Trump, not for Portman".

While I say Portman is safe it's encouraging to see the mentality and it makes me optimistic about the closer Senate races. Let them fight.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
They're saving the gabbo in the event the real damaging Clinton emails come out where she murders a goat.
 
By the way, if you kept Romney NE-2 numbers similarly (as those request suggest) and increase Dem. numbers by 18% (as in the requests so far), Hillary wins about 52% of the vote.

Obviously this could change/the independent number is a big ?, but that's the % increase she needs to be hitting.
 

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
I actually want to see McMuffin win Utah more than I want to see Hillary win it:

  • She doesn't need it
  • Trump losing a super-red state to a nobody would be an embarrassment to the GOP
  • A no-name third party candidate with nearly zero budget getting electoral votes instead of Gary Johnson or Jill Stein would be icing on the cake
Go McMuffin go!

Would probably be a nice counterpoint to the "rigged" rhetoric as well.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Suspended Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore says he did not respond to the acting chief justice’s request to clean out his office on or before Tuesday.

Acting Chief Justice Lyn Stuart sent a letter to Moore last week asking him to clean out his personal items and turn over his keys to the state judicial building in the wake of his recent conviction by the Court of the Judiciary on judicial ethics charges.

Moore, true to form, has said he intends to ignore the acting chief justice’s request because, as he sees it, she doesn’t have any authority in the matter. And so, Moore’s holding onto his keys and keeping his stuff in the office he’s supposed to vacate.

Insubordination is a true hard-right characteristic, it seems.
 
I saw it trending the other way with increased Latino population and more educated people moving to the metro areas.

I see Ohio trending more Republican in subsequent years.

2020 sees a small number of next generation voters, who are more diverse, and likely even more educated, than millennials.



When you're worldview is so broken and untenable you have to keep fleeing to increasingly friendly media to enforce it.

I think Texas will be more blue this year than in 2020 just because of the Trump factor being an anomaly this election. Overall it will continue to become more blue, but it could shift back a bit next time around before it totally becomes purple.
 

mo60

Member
In 2020 Texas will be more Republican than this year, probably by a good margin.

I think texas may only by 4 or 5 points more republican in 2020 then this year. Texas was only about 4 points more republican in 2012 compared to 2008.So if trump loses texas by 4 the max I would expect the next republican to win it by is like 9 or 10 points.
 
I think Texas will be more blue this year than in 2020 just because of the Trump factor being an anomaly this election. Overall it will continue to become more blue, but it could shift back a bit next time around before it totally becomes purple.

What I wonder is, How much of the Trump effect will last in 2020 and future elections. ie: people who have given up entirely on the Republicans in the near future as well as newly Registered Democrats continuing to voter as such.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
538 bot ‏@538_update_bot 34m34 minutes ago
Latest Senate poll from @FiveThirtyEight: Auto Alliance has @KatieMcGintyPA (D) +3 in a PA poll taken from Oct. 16-23

538 bot
‏@538_update_bot
CORRECTION: A new Senate poll from @FiveThirtyEight: Abt SRBI has @JohnnyIsakson (R) +15 in a GA poll taken from Oct. 17-20 #Election2016

538 bot ‏@538_update_bot 32m32 minutes ago
Latest Senate poll from @FiveThirtyEight: Victory Research has @TammyforIL (D) +11 in a IL poll taken from Oct. 16-18 #Election2016

Did not know 538 did polling.
 

Emarv

Member
You know if you spell oppo backwards, you get oppo? Coincidence?

You know if you rearrange the word oppo, you get poop? Coincidence?!


Yeah but Blaze is still tanking, popular doesn't always translate into money

Totally, but it's why Tomi's gonna get a huge contract from TrumpTV and lead the web network. Tomi back to back with Hannity. DREAM
 
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