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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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M

mo60

Member
VanMardigan said:
Yeah. I think the map linked above is their last stand and probably their only half realistic chance. The biggest flip in that map would be Nevada, which is tough but not impossible like VA and PA.
Click to expand...

Trump would literally have to rack up crazy landslide wins in some of the more rural parts of NV in order to win it unless less hispanics or other democratic leaning voters decided to not vote. Nevermind it looks like it would be impossible for republicans to win NV without Clark or Washoe county and I don't see that happening in this election unless hisoanic turnout is godly low.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Pizoxuat said:
Well, the first polling place we went to this morning had a small gaggle of mid-twenties white guys in red shirts clustered together to observe the polling place. We didn't stop there because the line was really long.

So we headed over to the Disability Rights place that was also serving as a polling location and voted there. No observers, but one likely Trump voter who blew a gasket after finding out that you have to vote in the county you are registered for. He declared that to be "BS!!" and the poor poll worker just asked "... why?" He stormed out before we could hear about how county lines are rigging the election or whatever magic he could have come up with.

+1 for Hillary in Austin.
Click to expand...

I wonder how many non educated whites are going to be incapable of voting because they actually dont know how and where to go
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Wilsongt said:
Surprising. I thought millenials hated Hillary. Most of the ones I went to school with are now either apolitical, Trump, or Bernie supporters. A lot of ones I play ff14 with are Trump supporters...
Click to expand...

Sounds like you need better friends and acquaintances. Probably a lot of unregistered Trump fans who are too lazy to vote, but enjoy the mainstreaming of ethnic hate.

Hillary Clinton is matching Barack Obama with young voters
Click to expand...
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/25/13382964/hillary-clinton-millennial
 
B

BravesCountry

Banned
Another one for GA.

SzyXK7e.jpg


FINALLY
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Carpe Carnim said:
MARTA could be great, but White neighborhoods and suburbs keep screaming like children that they don't want stops anywhere near them.

Worst boat-shoe wearing asshole I met in grad-school, who couldn't get into GA Tech used to refer to it as M.A.R.T.A = Moving Africans Rapidly Through Atlanta.

I fucking hate that guy to this day
Click to expand...

I just cannot understand this sentiment or similar cases like Marin County, CA not wanting BART to extend to them. In most major cities, proximity to a rapid transit stop is seen as highly desirable. When we moved to Chicago we only considered places that were within walking distance of the El.
 
S

subrock

Member
Wilsongt said:
Surprising. I thought millenials hated Hillary. Most of the ones I went to school with are now either apolitical, Trump, or Bernie supporters. A lot of ones I play ff14 with are Trump supporters...
Click to expand...
I was just assuming there were only 1-3 votes cast in each state.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Cheryl Mills isn't going to get through a senate confirmation without a nuke the GOP will dig a bunch through the wikileaks emails. COS is possible.

And no to bloomberg anywhere nears this administration unless its on one of those useless "presidential advisory commissions"

and IDK if I see Huma as COS she seems far more to take Valerie Jarrett role as a senior advisor. I've never read much about Huma as a manager, more like a confidant.
Click to expand...

Agreed on both counts, but I also think republicans would attempt to block Huma too. Huma was deputy CoS for Clinton at State, so she kind of has some experience...but not enough to be the first CoS for a Clinton admin (in my view). I'm guessing Clinton will want someone with deep DC ties and experience who can quickly get shit in line. Podesta makes sense to me.

I think Huma will be deputy CoS again and move into the top spot eventually.
 
C

clevbrowns94

Member
Honestly, Trump should just pick a state that could be the tipping point state (PA, NH, CO, or WI for examples) and just spend the next two weeks there and hope for the best. There is no point in spending time in Florida, Ohio, NC, or other states that are very unlikely to decide the election even if Trump does better than polling indicates. That's like playing a prevent defense when you are losing.
 
O

Oceanwind

Neo Member
Just put my ballot in the mail here in Colorado. The presidential and Senate races aren't competitive in Colorado this year, but my congressional district is (CO-6). Hope Morgan Carroll wins!
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
SexyFish said:
Conway: 'It's not for me to take away a grown man's Twitter account'
This campaign, man.
Click to expand...

They basically should have done what Ryan did to Creed on "The Office" when Creed wanted to start writing a blog. He just opened up Microsoft Word and told him it was a blog. Trump wouldn't have known the difference.

TumblingHippo said:
So Republicans are hoping for a 1980 election, are they?

http://www.snopes.com/carter-reagan-polls/
Click to expand...

To be fair, this is why I get a little hesitant when I see so many people on here saying "It's over!" Odds of Trump winning are incredibly low, but still...chance is there something catastrophic could occur.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
The kids are alright

What if only Millenials voted?

IMG_20161025_122007.jpg
Click to expand...

This is actually kind of a relief. I was kind of worried that the alt righters on /r/the_donald and /pol/ made up a significant chunk of the milennial vote.

I guess I technically qualify as a milennial (26) and most of my friends are voting Clinton but I do know one person who will probably vote Trump because he hates Hillary and thinks Trump is "hilarious," which is infuriating to me.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
adam387 said:
Bobby Bowden introduced Trump last night. I always made excuses for Bowden. But fuck off man. Fuck allll the way off, and take FSU with you.
Click to expand...
Can Miami be great again and be the assholes that we all know and love? I would like that very much. Mark, Make yourselves the Raiders of College Football again.. you can do it.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
clevbrowns94 said:
Honestly, Trump should just pick a state that could be the tipping point state (PA, NH, CO, or WI for examples) and just spend the next two weeks there and hope for the best. There is no point in spending time in Florida, Ohio, NC, or other states that are very unlikely to decide the election even if Trump does better than polling indicates. That's like playing a prevent defense when you are losing.
Click to expand...

There is no realistic scenario where Trump wins the election now.

Early vote results have been coming in, showing overwhelming, record breaking democratic support and republican participation that's depressed and below average.

His only chance at a win is to hope polls weren't picking up a silent majority that would show up to vote for him, but if that was happening we would already be seeing it.

Instead, we have red counties in Texas and FL going blue in a wave.

Trump and the GOP should be deploying him where he's strongest to try to save house and Senate seats. Anything else is lunacy.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Even though we're only two weeks away from election day and probably a few days after that from having the final vote tally, I think there are some stray observations in polling worth keeping in mind for the future:


  • Alaska, the only state that Obama's significantly improved upon in 2012 (margin loss of 21.54% to 13.99%) despite having a smaller margin of victory than 2008, is once again looking to be voting closer to the nation as a whole. I don't think this means Alaska will become a swing state anytime soon, but it's not actually that conservative for a state that's reliably Republican. The number of Republicans and those who lean Republican is high, which to me indicates many moderates that are more willing to vote Democrat and third-party, the latter polls indicate. LBJ is the only Democrat to ever win Alaska.
  • Colorado is polling slightly more Democrat than the nation as a whole, almost by exactly the same margins as 2008 and 2012. Minnesota and New Hampshire are as well but less consistently. Colorado and New Hampshire right now look to have the smallest fluctuations between 2008-2016.
  • In the last two elections Virginia voted closest to how the rest of the country did (only .01% more for Obama in 2012), but this year it's looking to be Pennsylvania. This is likely because Kaine is Veep.
  • After Utah, the second state most likely to have the biggest change in margin compared to the nation as a whole is Idaho, a state from what I can gather has the second highest percentage of Mormons. There's a smaller percentage of very religious people than Utah and more who are nonreligious. D.C. could be second but the few polls available are not very good like Idaho and the demographics make less sense for the sharp decline. After that is Hawaii, another state with poor polling.
  • Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Lousiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and South Carolina look to have their same margins of victory vs the nation as a whole as they did in 2012 (meaning they shifted about the same as the country overall).
  • Hillary looks to have margins >3% closer than Obama did the previous election in twenty-one states, fourteen of which she's definitely going to lose. Nine states she's guaranteed to win are looking to have margins >3% worse than Obama in 2012. Virginia appears to be the only state Obama won she'll see a >3% margin improvement, again likely because of Kaine.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
FloydtheFathead said:
Can Miami be great again and be the assholes that we all know and love? I would like that very much. Mark, Make yourselves the Raiders of College Football again.. you can do it.
Click to expand...

True. The U fans are some of the worst in CFB. Seriously, so many angry, drunk, ignant MoFos that could never get into, or afford UM cheer for them. Stay losin' Canes
 
A

Alcander

Member
SciencePilot said:
Did y'all see the 538 article about silicon valley donating overwhelmingly to Clinton? It's something like 95% of donation money went to her.

I feel like GAF likes to shit on silicon valley and no one believes me when I claim that aside from a few bad apples it's one of the most progressive areas in the country. Finally I have the numbers I need to back me up.

I too am a silicon valley employee that donated to Clinton!
Click to expand...

Wait who doesnt think silicon valley is progressive? I live/work here too. Its a progressive bastion minus a few people like Thiel
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Correct me if I'm wrong but I am like 90% sure that the "These are the 5 headlines you might see on election day" article that is on the front page of 538 right now is almost identical to an article they did a week ago where they said "there's 5 ways for the election to go and only one of them has trump winning." Like, it's the exact same outcomes in both articles. It feels like they're recycling stories because you can't argue this is a tight race anymore like you could in early September.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
BiggNife said:
Correct me if I'm wrong but I am like 90% sure that the "These are the 5 headlines you might see on election day" article that is on the front page of 538 right now is almost identical to an article they did a week ago where they said there's 5 ways for the election goes and only one of them has trump winning. Like, it's the exact same outcomes in both articles. It feels like they're recycling stories because you can't argue this is a tight race anymore like you could in early September.
Click to expand...
It's just a more fleshed out article without focusing on likelihood.
 
M

mo60

Member
A Human Becoming said:
Even though we're only two weeks away from election day and probably a few days after that from having the final vote tally, I think there are some stray observations in polling worth keeping in mind for the future:


  • Alaska, the only state that Obama's significantly improved upon in 2012 (margin loss of 21.54% to 13.99%) despite having a smaller margin of victory than 2008, is once again looking to be voting closer to the nation as a whole. I don't think this means Alaska will become a swing state anytime soon, but it's not actually that conservative for a state that's reliably Republican. The number of Republicans and those who lean Republican is high, which to me indicates many moderates that are more willing to vote Democrat and third-party, the latter polls indicate. LBJ is the only Democrat to ever win Alaska.
  • Colorado is polling slightly more Democrat than the nation as a whole, almost by exactly the same margins as 2008 and 2012. Minnesota and New Hampshire are as well but less consistently. Colorado and New Hampshire right now look to have the smallest fluctuations between 2008-2016.
  • In the last two elections Virginia voted closest to how the rest of the country did (only .01% more for Obama in 2012), but this year it's looking to be Pennsylvania. This is likely because Kaine is Veep.
  • After Utah, the second state most likely to have the biggest change in margin compared to the nation as a whole is Idaho, a state from what I can gather has the second highest percentage of Mormons. Idaho has a smaller percentage of very religious people than Utah and more who are nonreligious. D.C. could be second but the few polls available are not very good like Idaho and the demographics make less sense for the sharp decline. After that is Hawaii, another state with poor polling.
  • Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Lousiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and South Carolina look to have their same margins of victory vs the nation as a whole as they did in 2012 (meaning they shifted about the same as the country overall).
  • Hillary looks to have margins >3% closer than Obama did the previous election in twenty-one states, fourteen of which she's definitely going to lose. Nine states she's guaranteed to win are looking to have margins >3% worse than Obama in 2012. Virginia appears to be the only state Obama won she'll see a >3% margin improvement, again likely because of Kaine.
Click to expand...

South Carolina is looking to be a lot closer this time based on the small amount of polling conducted. It's looking to be a few more points less republican than 08 at this time. Maryland also looks to be way better for hilary then Obama in 08 and 12 despite her polling around what Obama got in 08 nationally right now. Maryland is looking more like a D+35 state in polls this time compared to 08 and 12.
 
B

bigwinnerx

Member
Someone posted about Trump starting to do events at his properties in the last few days of the race. Not limited to just him. This is down the street from me.

"Republican Presidential candidate Donald J. Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, is in Loudoun County today, hosting campaign events in Leesburg and at Trump National Golf Club DC in Potomac Falls."
 
B

Breads

Banned
djplaeskool said:
Psshaw
Unless you're going to the Airport or Dome/Philips/GWCC, Marta is ASS.
Click to expand...

As a person who doesn't live there I find that Airport, Sandy Springs, whatever the Roswell stops are called, and the stop in the middle of the city that leads to the foodcourt/ hotel without ever stepping foot outside to be all that I needed.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
FOX just can't quit Trump. They're putting in work to tamp down DEM excitement of good early voting stats

However, Trump has throughout the campaign appeared to have the support of some potential crossover voters, including Latino immigrants who back his tough message on illegal immigration.

A recent CNN/ORC poll, for example, found 33 percent of registered Latino voters in Nevada support Trump, compared to 54 percent for Clinton.
Click to expand...

Trump getting 33% of Latinx voters in NV?

5kl_DZ7.gif

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...in-key-states-despite-clinton-camp-boast.html
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
Wilsongt said:
Surprising. I thought millenials hated Hillary. Most of the ones I went to school with are now either apolitical, Trump, or Bernie supporters. A lot of ones I play ff14 with are Trump supporters...
Click to expand...

Isn't there some correlation between jrpg/anime lovers and the alt-right or am I making that up?

God damn all those alt-right anime avatars on twitter.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
A Human Becoming said:
Even though we're only two weeks away from election day and probably a few days after that from having the final vote tally, I think there are some stray observations in polling worth keeping in mind for the future:


  • Alaska, the only state that Obama's significantly improved upon in 2012 (margin loss of 21.54% to 13.99%) despite having a smaller margin of victory than 2008, is once again looking to be voting closer to the nation as a whole. I don't think this means Alaska will become a swing state anytime soon, but it's not actually that conservative for a state that's reliably Republican. The number of Republicans and those who lean Republican is high, which to me indicates many moderates that are more willing to vote Democrat and third-party, the latter polls indicate. LBJ is the only Democrat to ever win Alaska.
  • Colorado is polling slightly more Democrat than the nation as a whole, almost by exactly the same margins as 2008 and 2012. Minnesota and New Hampshire are as well but less consistently. Colorado and New Hampshire right now look to have the smallest fluctuations between 2008-2016.
  • In the last two elections Virginia voted closest to how the rest of the country did (only .01% more for Obama in 2012), but this year it's looking to be Pennsylvania. This is likely because Kaine is Veep.
  • After Utah, the second state most likely to have the biggest change in margin compared to the nation as a whole is Idaho, a state from what I can gather has the second highest percentage of Mormons. Idaho has a smaller percentage of very religious people than Utah and more who are nonreligious. D.C. could be second but the few polls available are not very good like Idaho and the demographics make less sense for the sharp decline. After that is Hawaii, another state with poor polling.
  • Alabama, California, Colorado, Florida, Lousiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and South Carolina look to have their same margins of victory vs the nation as a whole as they did in 2012 (meaning they shifted about the same as the country overall).
  • Hillary looks to have margins >3% closer than Obama did the previous election in twenty-one states, fourteen of which she's definitely going to lose. Nine states she's guaranteed to win are looking to have margins >3% worse than Obama in 2012. Virginia appears to be the only state Obama won she'll see a >3% margin improvement, again likely because of Kaine.
Click to expand...
Idaho is going to be weirder than normal this time for sure. We voted for Cruz and Bernie, and I get the sense that most people here don't like either nominee. I don't personally know any Trump voters, even though my family and their entire friend circle are Republicans, all the signs I see around town are for Gary Johnson and McMuffin. Obama got 36% in 2008 and 32% in 2012. I imagine Hillary could do a little better, and I do think that McMullin and Johnson will actually damage Trump here a bit.

All that said, the state was 72% for Bernie, and there are a fuckton of jilted salty crybabies here that haven't gotten over it. She doesn't win, but it'll be an oddball year without a doubt.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
mo60 said:
South Carolina is looking to be a lot closer this time based on the small amount of polling conducted. Polls in the past have shown trump leading anywere between 2 and 6 points in that state. Maryland also looks to be way better for hilary then Obama in 08 and 12 despite her polling around what Obama got in 08 nationally right now. Maryland is looking more like a D+30 or D+35 state in polls this time compared to 08 and 12.
Click to expand...
It depends on what polls you count. Trump has been >10% in some South Carolina polls, albeit ones I wouldn't consider having the best methods. Maryland is the same situation: a 2-3% increase is a conservative estimate.
 
J

Jeels

Member
BiggNife said:
This is actually kind of a relief. I was kind of worried that the alt righters on /r/the_donald and /pol/ made up a significant chunk of the milennial vote.
.
Click to expand...

Trolls on the internet are just really, really loud. They are insignificant in reality.
 
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