No wonder I've had this strange feeling of quietness.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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shinra-bansho
Member
Selzer and TrashNate making a trash baby.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Happy birthday president elect!
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
So Selzer is bad because they got the Iowa percentage wrong, even though they use a mix of landline and cellphone numbers, which seems to be the best polling methodology today?
Carpe Carnim
Member
Selzer only drinks rainwater and grain alcohol while polling. Fluoridation corrupts the sample
cartoon_soldier
Member
nice
I just checked out RCP's website for the first time ever. God damn, that's an awful site layout. Horrendous.
Bleurgh.
So much fraud ;_;
Good Lord that's a lot of fraud.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
You can criticize FiveThirtyEight for many things, but layout is not one of them. It admittedly influences why I'm easier on them than people here.
RCP and Sam Wang could use an update.
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
trump got a good poll in georgai
Carpe Carnim
Member
I account for at least 10,000 of those FL votes. Has everyone else been using the Soros Protocols as instructed?
(Hail Hydra)
Hillary for prison! Duck for dinner!
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
What truly baffles me about the people who vote for Trump is how they could stand to watch and listen to him for 4 years as the president. Forget the issues and ideology, just on a human level, how they could tolerate having him in an even bigger spotlight for 4 fucking years. It's almost as hard to relate to them for this reason as much as anything else. What the fuck could be so wrong with a human being that they willingly want to watch and listen to someone like Donald Trump as the leader of the free world for 4 years?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I'm confused about what polls Sam Wang uses in his model. In the FAQ it says this:
In the sidebar he links to scraped polls. Doesn't scraped usually mean removed? Or is that using scraped as collected?
Sam Wang said:
In the sidebar he links to scraped polls. Doesn't scraped usually mean removed? Or is that using scraped as collected?
Duck her up! Duck her up!
Carpe Carnim
Member
Scraped as in collected. When you use a media-scraper it's searching defined sites for content and collating it in a single place.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
holy shit Khan is actually going out and doing stuff for her?
What a dude
What a dude
wumster3000
Member
Seriously, why is everyone so sure of a Hillary win? I look at the national polls and sure she's up, but things could swing pretty hard. I hope not. FL and NC are the ones I worry about. If she takes either, that will be great! I realize that she can win without those states, but other things could fall in place for him.
banefirelord
Banned
Boy howdy am I ever excited to see another neck-and-neck horse race narrative kick into gear in the next few days. Make the last week and change real exciting.
If she wins OH, FL, or NC. It's over. She needs only one to call it early. Even without those, she still wins (as you mentioned). It's looking pretty good for her.
No one has ever come back from a 3 point national deficit with a month go to.
She has a 7-9 point deficit with less than 2 weeks to go.
On top of all of that, she only needs states that she has a greater than 90% chance of winning to hit 270. Which means she doesn't need a single swing state or even state that leans slightly her way to vote for her to become president.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Like clockwork, now Joe Scarborough gets to brag about how he was right about the The Tightening by bringing up that poll.
CNN is already going with that FL poll as a frontpage article.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
No, they can't. Almost 10% of the votes are already in. Early voting looks terrible everywhere for the GOP except Ohio. She has literally been leading all year.
Thaedolus
Member
Yeah but did you see the Seahawks and Cardinals game?
Roland_Gunner
Member
It looks like Trump is getting a slight bump from Republicans falling back in line. Basically when he's less in the news and not getting accused of sexual assault on a daily basis Republicans revert to preferring him to Killary. Whether they come out to vote is another question. Trump's approval with GOP voters in gallup reflects this:
metalslimer
Member
It would take some cataclysmic at this point against Clinton for her to lose. And even then she would probably still win when a large amount of people will vote early. I would also be a lot more nervous if Trump had a ground game to make up some of the deficit we see in the polls.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Pretty sure thats a typo and should be 64
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Alright then. I think that significantly weakens the criticism here of what polls FiveThirtyEight uses, at least for individual states. Back in 2012 Sam Wang wrote a piece about how he factors in pollsters that tend to lean toward one party, using Rasmussen as an example.
That said, he does mention his distinction from other aggregators:
That could very well be the case, but I'm no expert. I don't know how many other people in forecasting believing using medians is the correct approach. I just see them as different, but I do value his opinion more than 538. That still makes them far from trash.
Carpe Carnim
Member
It looks like Trump is getting a slight bump from Republicans falling back in line. Basically when he's less in the news and not getting accused of sexual assault on a daily basis Republicans revert to preferring him to Killary. Whether they come out to vote is another question. Trump's approval with GOP voters reflects this:
Trash voters love trash candidate, so long as they aren't constantly confronted by the trashiness of it all.
'Mericuh
banefirelord
Banned
Textbook abusive relationship.
Probably someone who remembered the death of Benjamin Ghazi.
Veritigo_X
Member
Women secretly fantasizing about Trump, polls oversampling D's, liberal men still stuck in their parent's basement because all the single women only want to fuck Trump, Hillary halloween mask sales are way down...
Not looking good folks.
Not looking good folks.
newshinycd
Member
True, but I'd rather see voters completely disseminate Trump. Not really to teach the GOP a lesson (because they aren't going to learn anything from this election), but to watch Trump and his base tear apart the RINO liberal GOP because it was all their fault Trump lost.
Finale Fireworker
Member
A modern Taxi Driver monologue?
Finale Fireworker
Member
They're probably fantasizing about having sex with him.
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