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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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C

Carpe Carnim

Member
royalan said:
Why do people even invite Giuliani on if they're not going to push back against his constant lies. He bulies them all. This interview is disgraceful.
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Despite the selection bias of GAF, who do you think makes up the demographic for CableTV news shows?
HINT: People who don't know how to use adblockers and want to see commenters who look like them
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
sazzy said:
jR7Ydm.png
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The fact that the republican ticket has to waste time in Utah of all places is absolutely hilarious to me.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Zeke said:
So I've heard about this Hilary sold Russia 20% of American uranium a few times. Can anyone point me to some good articles on this or give me a run down on this allegation.
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Russian firm who won the contract to process the stuff, only for domestic consumption.

For another, Russia doesn’t have the licenses to export uranium outside the United States, Oilprice.org pointed out, "so it’s somewhat disingenuous to say this uranium is now Russia’s, to do with what it pleases." The Kremlin was likely more interested in Uranium One’s assets in Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer.

Trump is also wrong that Clinton alone allowed the transfer.
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http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...-trump-inaccurately-suggests-clinton-got-pai/
 
N

newshinycd

Member
Loudninja said:
Lol trump and his Vp thats it.
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Actually, Ivanka and Tiffany are going to be in Marietta, Georgia this afternoon in order to target women voters. Which is fucking hilarious considering that Georgia, and Cobb itself, are supposed to be deep red.

Dunno if any group has organized to go protest. If there is I might join them, although the wife wasn't feeling good this morning so I'm not sure. Damn kids at school where she works are spreading strep and whatever else they are contagious with.
 
T

tedtropy

$50/hour, but no kissing on the lips and colors must be pre-separated
Bummed to see Florida get even a margin of error lead for Trump in some recent state polls. I know she doesn't ultimately need the state, but would love for it to stay blue.
 
W

wumster3000

Member
BSsBrolly said:
If she wins OH, FL, or NC. It's over. She needs only one to call it early. Even without those, she still wins (as you mentioned). It's looking pretty good for her.
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StoOgE said:
No one has ever come back from a 3 point national deficit with a month go to.

She has a 7-9 point deficit with less than 2 weeks to go.

On top of all of that, she only needs states that she has a greater than 90% chance of winning to hit 270. Which means she doesn't need a single swing state or even state that leans slightly her way to vote for her to become president.
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Joe Shlabotnik said:
No, they can't. Almost 10% of the votes are already in. Early voting looks terrible everywhere for the GOP except Ohio. She has literally been leading all year.
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Thanks for responding. I would like more chastising about my doubts Gaf.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
tedtropy said:
Bummed to see Florida get even a margin of error lead for Trump in some recent state polls. I know she doesn't ultimately need the state, but would love for it to stay blue.
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There is absolutely no way Trump is winning Florida.

Your bigger concern should be whether or not Murphy can somehow win.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
tedtropy said:
Bummed to see Florida get even a margin of error lead for Trump in some recent state polls. I know she doesn't ultimately need the state, but would love for it to stay blue.
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That poll is screwy. Not because Trump is possibly leading in it, but because their sample is not accurate. They have it as way, way too old. They have Hispanic numbers DOWN for 2012 (which we have actual evidence to prove that's not true!) They have Dems with a 2 point party advantage. None of these things they'll address because they don't like to overweight the sample to maintain it's purity or some shit.

Early voting is telling us the story, and it's not that Trump is going to overperform in Florida.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
I don't really pay attention to PoliGaf during non-election times

Does this place just kind of die for a few years in between elections?
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There's a lot more to politics than elections. Policy is also politics! So, I'm assuming it slows down, but people that like politics still have stuff to chew on...especially when we're going to get a new administration.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Adam Smith ‏@adamsmithtimes 4m4 minutes ago
FAU FL Poll: Clinton 46%, Trump 43%, has her +26 w ppl alrdy voted; Rubio 46%, Murphy 42%
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Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
Latest statewide numbers in NV are tallied for early voting, showing Democrats have built a 24,500 raw vote lead.
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.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I can enjoy the policy talk just as much as election season, provided we win. I'm most looking forward to the discussion over Scalia's seat to be commenced in two weeks.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
adam387 said:
That poll is screwy. Not because Trump is possibly leading in it, but because their sample is not accurate. They have it as way, way too old. They have Hispanic numbers DOWN for 2012 (which we have actual evidence to prove that's not true!) They have Dems with a 2 point party advantage. None of these things they'll address because they don't like to overweight the sample to maintain it's purity or some shit.

Early voting is telling us the story, and it's not that Trump is going to overperform in Florida.
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It's laughable. I posted a story last night about highly granular data in FL showing that over 26% of all new registrations since 2012 have been Hispanic. These numpties are assuming a net-nuetral amount of those voters are going to show up. WRONG!

Hispanics make up 26.6% of all new registrations, far above their 17% share of the 2012 election turnout. Whites comprised 47.7% of new registrations, almost 20 points below their share of 2012’s turnout.
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W

whyamihere

Banned
Today there's going to be 253 early voting sites in NC. Tomorrow? 394. Hopefully we'll see a recover of early voting numbers, because Dems are now 9% off their 2012 numbers versus 7.2% for the GOP.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
NeoXChaos said:
Hillary is looking likely to win. Your bigger concern is downballot House and Senate.
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The next concern is how much she wins by. A lot can happen in four years but 2020 is assured to be more challenging than this election, so looking at trends will create expectations for 2020.

Then again maybe she won't be dogged down by criticisms like Benghazi, the emails and perception she's a liar. Who am I kidding, I'm sure the GOP will find something to keep that liar persona intact.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
adam387 said:
That poll is screwy. Not because Trump is possibly leading in it, but because their sample is not accurate. They have it as way, way too old. They have Hispanic numbers DOWN for 2012 (which we have actual evidence to prove that's not true!) They have Dems with a 2 point party advantage. None of these things they'll address because they don't like to overweight the sample to maintain it's purity or some shit.

Early voting is telling us the story, and it's not that Trump is going to overperform in Florida.
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Agreed.

Selzer has been on WADR to explain her LV screen a couple times in the past and it largely based on enthusiasm and past voting history. As mademan explained yesterday, a lot of the voting populace in Florida (that is voting right now!) are recent immigrants who would fail the LV screen on the second point. It is becoming a theme with her polls that her LV screen ends up making the electorate look a lot more like the 2004 electorate when we known from early voting that this is not the case.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
whyamihere said:
Today there's going to be 253 early voting sites in NC. Tomorrow? 394. Hopefully we'll see a recover of early voting numbers, because Dems are now 9% off their 2012 numbers versus 7.2% for the GOP.
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This is really disappointing. We probably won't win Nc now due to the globalists.

Make me feel better whyamihere
 
N

nature boy

Member
Hillary Clinton still maintains a slight advantage as support for the major third party candidates appears to be slipping away in Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch survey.

The new national telephone and online survey shows Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump 44% to 43% among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns a new low of four percent (4%) support, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to one percent (1%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton edged ahead yesterday 43% to 42%.
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.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
whyamihere said:
Today there's going to be 253 early voting sites in NC. Tomorrow? 394. Hopefully we'll see a recover of early voting numbers, because Dems are now 9% off their 2012 numbers versus 7.2% for the GOP.
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The assholes in the GOP have rigged the early voting schedule so that there is only one Sunday when the full slate of polling stations is open, and they end early voting on a Saturday to avoid a second possibility of Souls to the Polls.

These fucks need to be crushed. Get on it TarheelGAF
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Y2Kev said:
This is really disappointing. We probably won't win Nc now due to the globalists.

Make me feel better whyamihere
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Well, independent voting has shot up, and it seems like those are younger voters who are voting early.

He hasn't lead a poll here since the first debate, and we should be happy that there are going to be 400+ early voting places next week when some states (NY!) make almost everyone vote on Election Day.

But it does worry me.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Hillsborough County -- the only county in Florida to vote for Obama twice and Bush twice, saw over 18,000 in person votes for the second straight day, and Democrats increase their early vote lead to more than 4,000 votes, and their total early/VBM lead to over 10,000 votes. Democratic share of total early/VBM votes is about 7.3%.

I-4 Corridor: Democrats won every county that is on I-4, except Seminole County (we can't expect to win a county so Republican that you have to go back to Truman to find a Democrat who carried it every day). Overall for the day, Democrats won 45-35.

Base Democratic Counties:

The five major Democratic counties, Broward, Dade, Palm Beach, Osceola and Orange all basically matched their day one turnout. Robust remains the best way to describe turnout

Here are a few counties:

Broward: (60D-21R), +11,987 for day 2.

Dade: (48D-29R) +6,600 for day 2.

Orange: (50D-29R) +3,665 for day 2

And lastly, my favorite place right now, Republican Duval County. Over the last two elections, Barack Obama was able to keep the Duval margins manageable, averaging losses of about 10,000 votes. By comparison, Bush won the county by 61,000 in 2004, a number that Trump would need to get closer to if he was going to win Florida.

Well right now, Republicans are doing about as well in Duval as the Jaguars. Democrats won the second consecutive day of in person early voting, and now only trail Republicans in total VBM/EV by about 440 votes. Even more ominous: it only took two days for total in person early voting to overtake two weeks of vote by mail returns.
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Hngggggg
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
adam387 said:
Hngggggg
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My wife's family is from Du-val. Southern Baptist, retired military. They can't stand Trump. I'm pretty sure her dad won't vote for him, but I can't say whether he'll vote FOR Clinton. Her mom is a-political, so who knows. Only one Trump sign on their block in a gated community in W. Jacksonville
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Caja 117 said:
Can someone tell me how accurate CNN poll of FL is, it shows trump leading by 2 points.
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Never, ever, ever get worried about one poll. Like, ever. Even if that poll shows your candidate winning bigly. There are several issues with that poll, that wasn't done by CNN. Their sample is weird. It's too white. It's way too old. It's too Republican. The issue is Seltzer's Likely Voter screen. We have evidence, actual on the ground evidence, that shows the assumptions she has made are simply wrong. We're turning out our less likely voters, while Trump is getting the people who we knew were going to show up.

Another poll just dropped showing her ahead by 3 in FL. But, we all know which one the media will talk about. But, heck, let's give him Florida. And Ohio. And Georgia. And Iowa. And Arizona. And Nevada. And North Carolina. Guess what? He still loses.
Carpe Carnim said:
My wife's family is from Du-val. Southern Baptist, retired military. They can't stand Trump. I'm pretty sure her dad won't vote for him, but I can't say whether he'll vote FOR Clinton. Her mom is a-political, so who knows. Only one Trump sign on their block in a gated community in W. Jacksonville
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I'm still shocked about the Polk County numbers. I'll need to see more, but I'm really really happy with the EV in Florida at the moment.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Oh man!

Bloomberg has breathed new life into Trump-Twitter. They're hopped-up on hopium something fierce!

Keep banking those votes Dems, then let's dash those inflated hopes in 13 days!
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Reminder that Hillary has won over a larger percentage of Bernie supporters than Obama ever won of Hillary supporters (a huge chunk of which voted McCain).

Who has the most disagreeable, whiney fans now? ;)
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
why is twitter filled with reporters saying "trump is using free media for his hotel ribbon cutting..."

if that's the case... stop covering it and being there??

edit- he's only getting free publicity because they're giving him free publicity
 
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