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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
here's hoping half of those red voters are clinton's...

gtwvZy.png
This seems good. We were behind in 2012 and now we are at worst tied.
 
Random related note: I found another person who thought Obama lost the popular vote in 2012. Where does this come from?

I have to think it's from the same place as Trump's election day Twitter meltdown in 2012, when the race was called for Obama Romney was up in the popular vote with west coast vote totals uncounted and not included at the time.
 

Bowdz

Member
Selzer's entire claim to fame is her deep understanding of the Iowa caucus electorate. Why anyone thinks this automatically translates to dead-on accuracy in places she's never polled before is beyond me.

edit: And she has been off in Iowa!

Seriously.

She hasn't exactly been spot on this year in the primaries, but for whatever reason, some people are happy to ignore that.
 
here's hoping half of those red voters are clinton's...

gtwvZy.png
There is nothing about this map that isn't good for us!
The super yellow county in the middle of the state? That's Hardee. Small, but super Republican. Orange county in the panhandle? Franklin County. Super extra Republican (also very few voters, but whatever). Glades county is down too. We know we're winning the I-4 Corridor. There is no way one wins the 1-4 Corridor and does not win the state.

@ElectProject 2h2 hours ago
FL Dems are up 55.3% over 2012 early voting (mail & in-person) and Reps up 49.0%; hard to know what baseline should be due to law changes

GOP had a slight lead in absentee voting. This is bad for them! They usually win it by 5% or so. Was less than 2% this year. It's the 2nd day of early voting, and we've already erased that lead. We're good.
 

Teggy

Member
lolz

Dan Scavino Jr.Verified account
‏@DanScavino
Probably the most accurate poll* I've seen coming out of Florida:
@realDonaldTrump 50%
Hillary Clinton 36%
*Florida Atlantic University
 
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"
Not even GOP pollsters!

When every Selzer poll this year has been an "outlier," maybe it's time to say that her polls just have a huge R lean. Either Trump overperforms or her polls were as good as Ras'.
Not by design, but as Rotschlid said, too focused on her dataset.

Trump is literally opening a hotel. Why the media continues to indulge this is amazing.

He's the Republican nominee, they have to cover him.
 
Yes. The suffering will end with her election. The Republicans will finally break their fever and we'll have two sane political parties again.

...*sob*

I think they'll settle back into "normal" within the decade. These re-alignments usually take about that long.

I still don't think we'll see a GOP president for awhile, though, even after the GOP fixes itself. The GOP has done permanent damage to their party to young people and minorities that's going to last a very long time. And the Democrats are rapidly expanding their "safe" map.
 

Kusagari

Member
Polls show Hillary winning:

"Don't trust the polls. They're all rigged. Media bias."

Single poll shows Trump winning:

"Look at this amazing poll. I have all the momentum. Thank you!"
 
So this is an event paid for by Trump International. This is the opening of his hotel. But, he's is 100% campaigning right now. He's talking about Obamacare. And now he just praised Newt for his "amazing" interview. "We don't play"

Is this legal? If his business paid for that microphone, and he is campaigning, he better do the required paperwork!
 
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538
People spend **way** too much time litigating individual polls, when they should be thinking about the risk of systemic polling error.
Glass houses here.

But I'm not sure why we're supposed to be thinking about hypotheticals of all the polls being way off when there's no reason to do so.
 

Iolo

Member
Yes. The suffering will end with her election. The Republicans will finally break their fever and we'll have two sane political parties again.

...*sob*

The suffering I am experiencing is the unsettling feeling that Trump could still become president, a basso continuo in the background that underlies every waking moment. No matter how good the polls are now, there will be a collective outpouring of relief when the possibility is finally choked off forever.
 
CNN already picked up Trumps response to the interview. Why the fuck would you even mention it? It was going to be a few hour story that didn't even make the nightly news
 
Texas:

👀 Compared to '12 2nd day early voting, Travis County more than doubled votes and Dallas County up ~65%. Obama won Dallas by 16 points and won Travis by 24 points 👀
 
Polls show Hillary winning:

"Don't trust the polls. They're all rigged. Media bias."

Single poll shows Trump winning:

"Look at this amazing poll. I have all the momentum. Thank you!"

Trump in the primary: Can you believe how wonderful all these polls are? They love me. I could read these all day

Trump in the general: All polls are phony
 

mclem

Member
Trump trying out the positive thing: "The United States is Great."

Wait, what?

Job done; America is Great Again! He can go away now.


Edit: Wait, maybe he was talking about South America all along? Perhaps his whole campaign has been about bigging up Venezuela?
 

Teggy

Member
Have you noticed Bad Nate last couple of days: "the polls look really good for Hillary right now, but what if there is a systemic polling problem? Not saying there is, but what if? Just asking?"
 
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