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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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F

faisal233

Member
johnsmith said:
Silver is an idiot. If there's a polling error it's more likely in Clinton's favor anyway.
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I still don't understand the hate.

It looks like the 538 model has a built in assumption that polling error might exist and they might not be limited to a single state based on historical data. That assumption is giving Trump a ~12% chance that will only go away if Clinton vastly over performs in the polls past any chance of a polling error.

That same assumption is also giving Clinton a 21% chance of a landslide, the highest of any model put there.

If you don't believe there is going to be polling error, subtracting that ~12% bring Nate in line with every other model.

I don't mind the hedge, it gives a Clinton landslide the highest % chance.
 
G

geomon

Member
This Is What Actual Voter Suppression Looks Like, And It’s Appalling

But with early voting now underway in several states, the real-world effects of actual (and very consequential) voter suppression have begun to bubble up.

Exhibit A is North Carolina, where in recent months reporters discovered that state Republican leaders had sent emails directing GOP appointees on local elections boards to “make party line changes” to limit early voting.

In one message, titled “CRITICAL and CONFIDENTIAL,” a Republican district chairman urged election officials to offer only one early voting site for the minimum hours allowed by law, so as not to give Democrats an advantage.
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This is fucking sickening.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Let's not go overboard with the Nate bashing here. I'm as tired as the next person of tweets that say "Clinton is ahead right now, but Trump could win" but his model builds in some uncertainty based on, among other things, the possibility of systematic polling error. It's not really fair to say then that his model sucks if the polls are wrong.
 
I

Iolo

Member
faisal233 said:
I still don't understand the hate.

It looks like the 538 model has a built in assumption that polling error might exist and they might not be limited to a single state based on historical data. That assumption is giving Trump a ~12% chance that will only go away if Clinton vastly over performs in the polls past any chance of a polling error.

That same assumption is also giving Clinton a 21% chance of a landslide, the highest of any model put there.

If you don't believe there is going to be polling error, subtracting that ~12% bring Nate in line with every other model.

I don't mind the hedge, it gives a Clinton landslide the highest % chance.
Click to expand...

It's the undecideds that provide most of the 12% chance. I've never seen him attempt to quantify the probability of systemic polling error, he just handwaves.

Box of Kittens said:
Let's not go overboard with the Nate bashing here. I'm as tired as the next person of tweets that say "Clinton is ahead right now, but Trump could win" but his model builds in some uncertainty based on, among other things, the possibility of systematic polling error. It's not really fair to say then that his model sucks if the polls are wrong.
Click to expand...

Link?
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Blader said:
Does Hannity think Obama is incapable or too cash-strapped to book his own fucking plane?
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Once he loses his job, he's going to be one of those jobless, homeless Blacks that needs to go back to Africa.

He's not even trying to be subtle about his racism. Good.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Why does everyone care about the media or w/e showing the polls tightening? It'll make for way more entertaining fireworks on election day when they lose. it'll be like whitepeoplemourningromney^10.
 
S

subrock

Member
mo60 said:
Some pepple really want this election to end up like that BC election in 2013 were the left wing party was leading by like a mid single digit margin against the incumbent party and the left wing party ended up losing the election by like 4 points.
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Don't bring up Dix, it's still sore.

I should note that up here we have abysmal polling. We get nowhere near the coverage of US elections.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
The federalist lady on CNN is honestly one of the most annoying people to listen to. Literally everything she says is some version of look at how much everyone hates both these candidates!

Not only that she's just plain wrong half the time saying things like Latino turnout hasn't increased like the democrats thought
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
geomon said:
This Is What Actual Voter Suppression Looks Like, And It’s Appalling



This is fucking sickening.
Click to expand...

This is why it's critical to give Clinton the Senate and thus, a straight shot to nominate SCOTUS Justices. The VRA is going to come back before the court, and the GOP in TX and NC are going to make insane arguments that they aren't making law to disenfranchise PoC, which would be illegal, but that they're disenfranchising Democrats—who happen to be largely PoC, coincidentally (*wink wink*)—which is just politics.

This is the seminal Civil Rights battle of the next 10 years.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Jennifer Rubin is ready to take her ball and go home.

Center-right Americans committed to a strong national security policy, free markets with a humane safety net and corrupt-free politics can just leave the GOP and start something new. No furrowed brows and sweating over whether to fire Reince Priebus would be needed. No need to figure out how to expel the evangelical charlatans who believe in nothing but their own power. No need to figure out how to keep talk-radio hecklers and fake Fox News figures from spreading nonsense and making the party dumber by the year. No need to wrest control of early primaries from states that favor fringe candidates.

Plant a flag, announce your principles and then decide whom you want to invite. Save all the energy that otherwise would be wasted on another useless autopsy report and arguing with people who threw away every conviction to support Trump.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...477500166384&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.e8d98060d820
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I mean ultimately 538's model is proprietary so we don't know all the inner workings, just what Nate chooses to share. I've certainly had criticisms of his model, I just don't think that the possibility of systematic polling error invalidates a model that's built from polling if it builds in uncertainty.

On a tangential note, it pains me the way Nate repeatedly abuses the term "sample size" in that article about why his model is giving better odds to Trump than other models.
 
I

Iolo

Member
faisal233 said:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...r-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/
Click to expand...

Oh okay, I read this earlier. It seems to boil down to:
- There were late polling errors in 1980, so we calibrate our model with data going back to 1972
- Polling is harder now
- If there are polling errors, all states will move in tandem

It doesn't seem to explain exactly how systemic polling errors could arise this year or given any way of quantifying them, it just says they could exist. And only part of the uncertainty is due to possible systemic polling errors. It's all very unsatisfying.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Monmouth NH LV

Hillary: 46
Trump: 42
Gary Johnson: 7

Hassan (D): 46
Ayotte (R): 46

Gov:

Van Ostern (D): 48
Sununu (R): 43

Improvement for gov and senate races, tightening in POTUS race.

PPP national

Hillary: 46
Trump: 40
Johnson: I forget

EDIT: GAF moving slow, these were already posted by the time it loaded...
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Y2Kev said:
Monmouth is weird. They were super Hillary and now are not!
Click to expand...

Eh, Monmouth state polls have small samples sizes (400, which is basically the cut-off point of being acceptable) and high margins of error for such a renown pollster. They're good for sure but a bit prone to error. Not saying they're wrong, but they will get some odd ones here and there. Like that +8 Trump in Iowa back in September.

Edit: NH is 100% Hillary. Trump has NEVER led in a real NH poll and Hillary's lowest margins ever were +2 or +3
 
J

jtb

Banned
I don't understand the Upshot's vote forecaster. Why do they project Hillary to win NC by 6 points, but their forecast model (based on polls, I guess?) doesn't?
 
G

geomon

Member
Indiana officials are trying to block almost 45,000 black citizens from voting

The IVRP is still unsure whether the 45,000 people it registered will be permitted to vote this year, or how the state will handle their applications while the police investigation is ongoing. Bill Bursten, chief public information officer for the Indiana State Police, told ThinkProgress that law enforcement is investigating whether IVRP violating fraud and forgery laws.

“It will be up to each prosecutor to review the completed investigation and take whatever action they, as the local prosecuting authority, deem appropriate,” Bursten said. “Investigations of this nature are complicated and can take an extended period of time to complete.”

Secretary of State Connie Lawson (R)’s office declined to comment, and Buck said IVRP is still unclear what law it violated or why it’s being aggressively targeted by election officials and police.
Click to expand...

Wow, just wow.
 
S

Skatterd

Member
Libertarian VP Candidate Bill Weld- "“In the final days of this very close race, every citizen must be aware of the power and responsibility of each individual vote. This is not the time to cast a jocular or feel-good vote for a man whom you may have briefly found entertaining. Donald Trump should not, cannot, and must not be elected President of the United States.”

https://www.johnsonweld.com/statement_by_gov_bill_weld_regarding_the_final_weeks_election
 
I

Iolo

Member
jtb said:
I don't understand the Upshot's vote forecaster. Why do they project Hillary to win NC by 6 points, but their forecast model (based on polls, I guess?) doesn't?
Click to expand...

That's just their own poll combined with early vote data. The forecast model is an aggregator.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
AkYMXf3.jpg


House District 6 is the most contested Congressional election in Colorado, with the Koch Brothers funneling in millions in campaign funds to protect the Republican incumbent.

Interesting to see how the Republicans have gerrymandered Aurora, a largely minority city in Colorado, with rural areas to the North and East as well as suburban whites to the South.

Where this is going to hurt them this election is white women and college educated whites flipping Democrat and the potential for suppressed Republican turnout overall. This Gerrymandering will come back to bite them in this situation, despite the funding advantage the Republicans currently hold.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Guaging interest: Would you play a turn-based combat game incorporating Pheonix Wright-type visual novel aspects that revolves around modern American political campaigns?

Dungeon Crawling looking for Oppo to construct devastating Oppo-Bombs

Extreme Vetting of team members

Determining how to place resources to maximize villager's disposition towards your "campaign team"

Process-based decisions that may provide scandal fodder against you

Constructing narratives for NPC Media figures that can hurt, or help your cause

Fighting powerful beasts based on famous political figures

Online aspects where you must join forces with other players' campaign teams to solidify down-ballot support, and incubate (unlock) team-members

I got ideas, folks!
 
T

Toxi

Banned
Skatterd said:
Libertarian VP Candidate Bill Weld- "“In the final days of this very close race, every citizen must be aware of the power and responsibility of each individual vote. This is not the time to cast a jocular or feel-good vote for a man whom you may have briefly found entertaining. Donald Trump should not, cannot, and must not be elected President of the United States.”

https://www.johnsonweld.com/statement_by_gov_bill_weld_regarding_the_final_weeks_election
Click to expand...
Uh, wow. I know the "briefly entertaining" person he's referring to is Trump, but he has to know how that statement reads.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Skatterd said:
Libertarian VP Candidate Bill Weld- "“In the final days of this very close race, every citizen must be aware of the power and responsibility of each individual vote. This is not the time to cast a jocular or feel-good vote for a man whom you may have briefly found entertaining. Donald Trump should not, cannot, and must not be elected President of the United States.”

https://www.johnsonweld.com/statement_by_gov_bill_weld_regarding_the_final_weeks_election
Click to expand...


I saw that this morning. Artfully written so that people can decide on their own who the "entertaining" man is.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
Guaging interest: Would you play a turn-based combat game incorporating Pheonix Wright-type visual novel aspects that revolves around modern American political campaigns?

Dungeon Crawling looking for Oppo to construct devastating Oppo-Bombs

Extreme Vetting of team members

Determining how to place resources to maximize villager's disposition towards your "campaign team"

Process-based decisions that may provide scandal fodder against you

Constructing narratives for NPC Media figures that can hurt, or help your cause

Fighting powerful beasts based on famous political figures

Online aspects where you must join forces with other players' campaign teams to solidify down-ballot support, and incubate (unlock) team-members

I got ideas, folks!
Click to expand...

I always thought a politician simulator similar to that Devolver Digital mobile game, Reigns, would be a nifty game. Here's a quick summary of my ideas:

- Create a politician: Gender, party, personal beliefs (abortion and such)
- Have various demographics represented by little meters. How you build your character affects their starting point (Female = Higher female approval, Republican = Higher approval from big corporations)
- Vote yes or no on an assortment of various legislation. How you vote affects all of the demographics differently
- After a set amount of votes, the game aggregates your approval ratings with everything and will determine if you win reelection or not. Point of the game is to stay in Congress.
- If you don't get reelected, you "lose" and have to start a new character
 
Z

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Cons: I work in a building that has early voting and election day voting. So parking is always hard getting in at work.

Pros: Easy to go vote and can wait until line reduces....my wait continues.
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Plinko said:
I'm fairly certain there were articles this past week that said they had proof of forged registrations.

Not saying that it's right to deny 45000 new voters their rights, but the article states they didn't have proof, which I believe is false.
Click to expand...

Actual proof or just messed up registration forms that were never sent but that they are legally required not to throw out?

Because the latter was the kind of bullshit that was used to attack ACORN.
 
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