Trump's probably not leading by much in the South if he's getting crushed in Virginia, losing florida, is down slightly in NC, and the gap between him and hilary is under 10 points in Texas, SC and GA. Racking up huge leads in OK, AL,LA and etc won't help him win the south by a ton.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country
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Trump's probably not leading by much in the South if he's getting crushed in Virginia, losing florida, is down slightly in NC, and the gap between him and hilary is under 10 points in Texas, SC and GA. Racking up huge leads in OK, AL,LA and etc won't help him win the south by a ton.
eBay Huckster
Member
nature boy
Member
That.was.fast.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Maybe Trump was right about CNN all along.
It could help in 2020 where a legitimate third party candidate is, again, pealing points away from the Republican party. Either keeping those electoral votes away from the Republicans, or giving the Democrats the win.
There's a possible, but highly unlikely scenario where McMullin wins Utah, neither Hillary/Trump get 270, Dems make enough house gains to flip a few state delegations, McMullin wins over a state delegation or two outside Utah, and then Trump can't get a majority of state delegations to support him in the House.
Basileus777
Member
Utah won't be competitive in 2020, this is a one cycle freak event.
HanShotFirst
Member
I'd like to point out that Obama won about 45% of the vote in GA in 2012, and Carter and Nunn also got about 45% in 2014, a midterm. Id guess Clinton's lowest possible performance will be 47%- 48%
Some of that is convenient for clicks/views/horse race but it is genuinely hard to sample young voters and avoid system gaming.
The polls aren't rigged, just the press and the voting. Keep with the program.
eBay Huckster
Member
yes, i agree, people
pull out of ohio, where clinton was leading in the huffpost aggregate by 2.2% before this poll
pull out of ohio, where clinton was leading in the huffpost aggregate by 2.2% before this poll
Basileus777
Member
This is impossible. Any scenario where Dems make those House gains is one where Hillary wins in a landslide.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Yep. It's time to pull out of Ohio while there is still time.
It depends on who the republicans nominate. If it's another trump like candidate that is as awful as trump is Utah may be competitive again. McMullin or Hilary winning Utah may force the GOP to prevent a candidate that is unappealing to people in Utah from winning the republican nomination again.
sunshine and gasoline
Banned
Clearly Trump's truthful statements made CNN ashamed and change their ways.
nature boy
Member
Masto +7 LV. Wow
Burr +1. Dead heat.
Edit: "Leaning towards", not voting.
Burr +1. Dead heat.
Edit: "Leaning towards", not voting.
eBay Huckster
Member
lol wait a minute, that CNN Ohio poll has Clinton only up 3 among women
that seems... wonky
that seems... wonky
CaptainSchwann
Member
How long is CNN going to push these wikileaks stories? I mean christ, my kids will be hearing about Clinton's damn emails.
whyamihere
Banned
Just a bit!
RastaMentality
Banned
catherine cortez masto is gonna be senator!!
whyamihere
Banned
CNN has Cortez Masto up 7.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It does.
I mean, it's Ohio. I wouldn't be surprised by anything there, but even so. That seems very, very low.
Hell yes Masto.
Still looks like our path in the Senate is IL+IN+WI+NV+(NH or PA or NC).
Finale Fireworker
Member
You actually kind of look like your avatar. Must be the smile.
MO feels possible, too.
Ohio will go blue.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
As for Ohio, Michael McDonald is pointing this out (and has been for a week or two):
Early voting for democrats this time around is well below what it was at this time in 2012--especially in democratic strongholds. May not just be an early voting trend--it might be an Ohio-as-a-whole trend.
Early voting for democrats this time around is well below what it was at this time in 2012--especially in democratic strongholds. May not just be an early voting trend--it might be an Ohio-as-a-whole trend.
Box of Kittens
Banned
My expectation would be that if McMuffin won Utah and no one hit 270, the House would pick Trump. Remember, the GOP is terrified of Trump's base. Of course this is all academic, since Clinton will easily surpass 270.
They would pick McMuffin.
This scenario won't happen. McMullin winning Utah won't decide this election, him winning it only guarantees a more embarrassing Trump loss, which is what I'm hoping for.
Basileus777
Member
Why is Masto surging? Is Heck being punished for betraying the Don?
Yep, Trump wins if it goes to the House. McMuffin is a silly dream.
User 463088
Banned
I am not unskewing anything.
However, that CNN Ohio poll is absolutely bullshit.
Franklin county is responsible for 10% of the entire vote total that comes out of the state. (That's Columbus). It is second only to Cuyahoga county in the number of votes it gives to each candidate.
CNN is unable to get a representative sample in that area. That's simply not possible. Their regional breakdowns make zero sense. Their gender splits make no sense.
However, that CNN Ohio poll is absolutely bullshit.
Franklin county is responsible for 10% of the entire vote total that comes out of the state. (That's Columbus). It is second only to Cuyahoga county in the number of votes it gives to each candidate.
CNN is unable to get a representative sample in that area. That's simply not possible. Their regional breakdowns make zero sense. Their gender splits make no sense.
Yes. Heck is being punished most likely for ditching trump.
Fragamemnon
Member
Heck's getting murdered for the Trump kneejerk reaction.
Ross/Burr is just so close. Needs Hillary's help (+4 win IMO) to get across the finish line.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Interesting. Certainly I can be pretty sure they would prefer him, but I'd think they'd be terrified of being punished by Trump voters in 2018 and beyond. But I'll take your word for it.
Oh yeah, it's a total fantasy scenario for sure.
whyamihere
Banned
Ross also leads Burr by 3 in the RVs.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Can't wait.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
In 2012, OH ended up -1 compared to national vote and NC was -5. There's also plenty reason to believe OH and NV will shift toward trump relative to the national average. They may be "battleground states" but only in the sense that Trump 100% has to win them, and it seems very possible he wont. None of those states are likely to be required for Clinton to win.
If CO, PA, or NH polls start showing a close race, then you can start to worry.
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