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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
thepotatoman said:
In 2012, OH ended up -1 compared to national vote and NC was -5. There's also plenty reason to believe OH and NV will shift toward trump relative to the national average. They may be "battleground states" but only in the sense that Trump 100% has to win them, and it seems very possible he wont. None of those states are likely to be required for Clinton to win.

If CO, PA, or NH polls start showing a close race, then you can start to worry.
Click to expand...

Correction, if CO PA NH start showing a close race outside of CNN's bullshit polls, then you can start to worry.
 
Z

Zackat

Member
Teggy said:
Is Ringling Bros. endorsing Hillary in this ad?

Cu-68BgWcAEChLk.jpg:large
Click to expand...
Not even a circus will endorse the carnival barker.
 
J

jtb

Banned
House Republicans choosing McMullin over Trump would be even more unforgivable and hilariously undemocratic than a backroom RNC coup. Not going to happen. Still, if he picked up a state or two, it would be a nice statement to make I guess.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
jbug617 said:
I believe that is 2 bad Ohio polls in a row. Trumps absolutely needs PA right?
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He needs PA and Florida, there's no win scenario where he doesn't take those. Has never made gains in either of those states for the entire election. Trump has inherent advantages in Ohio, lower education and diversity.

Even with PA/FL, he still needs to take CO or VA, which have some of the highest rates of bachelor degrees per capita in the country. Neither state is likely to go Red anytime soon outside of some kind of flip in the electorate (think voting rights act, and desegregation flipping southern whites to Republicans).
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Box of Kittens said:
Interesting. Certainly I can be pretty sure they would prefer him, but I'd think they'd be terrified of being punished by Trump voters in 2018 and beyond. But I'll take your word for it.

Oh yeah, it's a total fantasy scenario for sure.
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Thing is that they have enough of a built in advantage in mid-term elections that they can get away with screwing Trump. It's not like they are going to vote for a Democrat in 2018, and typical mid-term democrat voter malaise means that losing a subset of the Trump voters won't hurt nearly as badly.

I think the GOP would see McMullin as a way of staving the GOP civil war off (I think they'd be wrong, but they would think that).
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Teggy said:
He can win without PA but he'll need FL.
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That's still not enough. He would have to take back Colorado or Virginia.

Or

He has to win ME-2, Iowa, Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Georgia, Utah and Arizona to get to 270. And he still barely gets there.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
jbug617 said:
I believe that is 2 bad Ohio polls in a row. Trumps absolutely needs PA right?
Click to expand...
PA is completely out of reach for Trump.

Also this is the first OH poll with Trump leading in about three weeks. It's also a highly, HIGHLY questionable poll as pointed out by several in this thread and even guys like Goodnate and Badnate.
 
E

embalm

Member
Is anyone else really excited for Kander in MO? I think that if this guy wins his Senate race then he is a possible presidential candidate in 12+ years. He checks all the right boxes and seems incredibly capable.

I emailed some friends who moved to Kansas City almost a decade ago(MO side) and they are also really excited about him. He has seemed to stir some democratic voters in MO that have been sleeping for the past half dozen elections. It makes me curious about his ability to do that on the national stage.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
McCain makes it clear that the GOP will never fill Supreme Court vacancies if they get a Senate majority with Hillary as president.

"I promise you that we will be united against any Supreme Court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put up," McCain said. "I promise you. This is where we need the majority and Pat Toomey is probably as articulate and effective on the floor of the Senate as anyone I have encountered."
Click to expand...

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/17/politics/mccain-clinton-trump-supreme-court/index.html
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
embalm said:
Is anyone else really excited for Kander in MO? I think that if this guy whens his Senate race then he is a possible presidential candidate in 12+ years. He checks all the right boxes and seems incredibly capable.

I emailed some friends who moved to Kansas City(MO side) almost a decade ago and they are also really excited about him. He has seemed to stir some democratic voters in MO that have been sleeping for the past half dozen elections. It makes me curious about his ability to do that on the national stage.
Click to expand...
Kander is the most excited I've been for a Missouri politician in ages. I reeeeally hope he wins and I agree with you that he could seriously go places some day. He would be a fantastic moderate option down the road for a presidential primary or VP choice.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Some total joke character on Twitter (like everything he posts is just a joke) posted a one-off tweet that he was an Ohio postal worker and was tearing up Trump ballots and it was picked up by Drudge and Gateway Pundit.
 
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