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[illiniguy05]

What would the legal argument for the Supreme Court being able to declare gerrymandering unconstitutional?

Its already been declared unconstitutional

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davis_v._Bandemer

Huh? This case does not come to that conclusion.

 

[FireAndBlood]

Is this the election to fix the Republican gerrymandering? The census is done in 2020, so I'm wondering if it is the people being elected now that will draw the district lines.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Turns out my wife actually knows Derek Black (former white supremacist kid). Unsurprisingly he goes by a different name, but he's really cool.

 

[User 463088]

I guess I'm just salty at how Republicans keep trotting that Hilary insulted women of Bill's infidelities (as opposed to what being lovey dovey??), I almost want to hold Melania to their standard.

That's the bad thing about being the bigger people in an argument. We don't go for easy points. We'll win by going high, not by going low like Trump and his ilk.

 

[Barzul]

Since this is a thread about politics and during an election season.
Can we talk about how the US influence politics in the rest of the world too?
Like in France, apparently to try to get a more legitimate mandate when presenting a candidate the Republicans (yes the Right is called that now here) they go through the primary process.
This year is special because even people who are not part of the party can vote in the primary.
They even held a debate with the 8 candidates (and dear god was that BS on sticks I didn't expect to hear everyone going all trickle down on me during the debate but here we are).
I lost 2 hours yesterday watching the replay of this shit and I feel like venting since Clinton is already nearly elected and all.

Guessing anti-immigrant sentiment dominated the discourse?

 

[Mael]

Observation that gets lost in Hillary's historic candidacy: a pretty decent number of Democratic senate candidates are women and if most of the close races are won by Democratic women, significantly closer to half of the Democratic senators will be women.

That's actually great news if they're not shoved in unwinnable districts...
In France (again), a party must pay a hefty fine if they don't field as many men as women in a given election (presidential excepted).
So the way it works is that the parties take the women and shove them in races they can't win, that way they're sure the pesky women can't hold that many seats.

 

[Anoregon]

Is anyone starting to get legitimately worried about post-election violence, given Hillary's pretty much a lock? The combination of an inflamed alt-right, talk of a rigged election, and just generally irresponsible conservative rhetoric definitely has the potential to cause some lunatics to boil over and do something stupid.

 

[thebloo]

That's the bad thing about being the bigger people in an argument. We don't go for easy points. We'll win by going high, not by going low like Trump and his ilk.

Now drop that fucking oppo tape!!!

Spoiler

That's actually great news if they're not shoved in unwinnable districts...
In France (again), a party must pay a hefty fine if they don't field as many men as women in a given election (presidential excepted).
So the way it works is that the parties take the women and shove them in races they can't win, that way they're sure the pesky women can't hold that many seats.

So they're...sexymandering?

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

Limbaugh was all in with the 'rigged' spin, whining that Trump simply meant that the media is biased against him. Trump literally says over and over that there is widespread voter fraud and calls for his supporters to 'watch' polling places because of it. Just after that he goes on a little rant about how he does not spread false optimism, then immediately talks about how it's a dead heat because Clinton's lead falls in the margin of error in a single poll. Limbaugh is struggling.

 

[CygnusXS]

They are not going to change for a number a reasons, but mainly because their base is filled with the most deplorable individuals in this country.

My fear is that they will come up with a candidate for the presidency with all the same ideas that orange clown has except with a working brain. We must be prepared for that eventuality, the republican establishment will in no way denounce nationalistic populism.

It'll be Peter Thiel. I'm convinced of this.

 

[Ecotic]

Is anyone starting to get legitimately worried about post-election violence, given Hillary's pretty much a lock? The combination of an inflamed alt-right, talk of a rigged election, and just generally irresponsible conservative rhetoric definitely has the potential to cause some lunatics to boil over and do something stupid.

I envision there could be some in the first week after the election but then reality will set in that Trump lost big, Republicans will call to move on from Trump, and the rawest feelings will pass.

 

[Third Strike]

Is this the election to fix the Republican gerrymandering? The census is done in 2020, so I'm wondering if it is the people being elected now that will draw the district lines.

Nope. 2018 is the most important election for most states. 2020 in a few others (North Carolina is one of them). 2017 and 2019 for a few gubernatorial races.

 

[B-Dubs]

It'll be Peter Thiel. I'm convinced of this.

It'll be October for the press every month of the campaign if he runs.

 

[PantherLotus]

Anyone who simultaneously wants Anderson to go hard on Melania for Trump's actions but also thinks Trump bringing up Bill's accusers is wrong needs to evaluate a few priorities, I think.

She is not responsible for the actions of her husband. Spouses are off limits (with the exception of Bill for obvious reasons). It's a sign of how dire the situation is that the campaign is even putting her out there, but there is no reason to want or expect them to drag her.

When they go low, we go high.

I mean, yeah. But she's clearly going on the show to shore up his bleeding sexual-assault flank.

The nuance being that one candidate is being accused of and has bragged about sexual assault. The other candidate's husband was caught cheating.

So yeah while Melania isn't responsible for her husband's actions, she is being put out there as a surrogate because her husband is running for president. Hillary's husband isn't running for president.

 

[Hopfrog]

Is anyone starting to get legitimately worried about post-election violence, given Hillary's pretty much a lock? The combination of an inflamed alt-right, talk of a rigged election, and just generally irresponsible conservative rhetoric definitely has the potential to cause some lunatics to boil over and do something stupid.

Speaking of:

Trump Supporter Tells Reporters: "Hillary Needs to be Taken Out"

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/dan-bowman-trump-supporter-take-clinton-out

Here is a charming excerpt:

The Trump supporter, Dan Bowman, told the Wall Street Journal Thursday at Trump's Cincinnati, Ohio rally that “I feel like Hillary needs to be taken out. If she gets in the government, I’ll do everything in my power to take her out of power."

“If I have to be a patriot, I will,” he added, before avoiding questions about whether he was threatening Clinton directly.

“I don’t know. Is it?” Bowman, a 50-year old contractor, responded when asked if his comment represented a real threat to Clinton's life.

Say hello to the Secret Service you asshole.

 

[Cybit]

The new 538 article on Trump and the economy is aggressively stupid.

Eh, the general point about how the president generally can't really do that much to influence an economy (outside of trying to mitigate massive events that are caused by exterior forces) is one that has to be made every 4 years. It's a valid point - generally there are much bigger forces at play that determine the outcome of the economy during a president's term.

 

[Plinko]

I shouldn't really care that much, but the debate Wednesday is so intriguing to me, even more so than the first two.

Trump is way behind in polls, and last debate didn't help him at all--how will he modify his debate tactics (if at all)?

Trump is constantly hitting the "rigged polls, media, and voting" soundbites--will he continue to do this at one moderated by a Fox News anchor, especially if he wants his own media network? And, if so, how will Chris Wallace react?

Trump is at his last gasp for a turnaround and this is his last televised debate--how much more over the top will he be than last time? What new accusations will he make?

 

[HanShotFirst]

Observation that gets lost in Hillary's historic candidacy: a pretty decent number of Democratic senate candidates are women and if most of the close races are won by Democratic women, significantly closer to half of the Democratic senators will be women.

Duckworth/Hassan/Cortez-Masto/Ross/McGinty bring the count up to 19/52ish

I'm looking at the percentages of women in each Congress on wikipedia and Democratic years are usually the ones with the largest increases, so this is great news.

 

[jmdajr]

Is Fox handling the last debate?

 

[Mael]

Guessing anti-immigrant sentiment dominated the discourse?

Actually that side of the debate was alright with a pretty great proposition to make sure muslims can get their mosque financed and stuffs (of course Sarkozy and Copé were unbelievably shitty for this and the rest of the debate).
But while terrorism played a part in the debate, the biggest part was probably taxes, spending and unemployment.
We had something like 4 candidates out of the 8 that said they absolutely wanted to not make exceptions and treat muslims like shit, keep Jus Soli and have everything go through normal judicial process.
Alain Juppé (former prime minister, current mayor of Bordeaux, my home town), Poisson (don't even know the 1rst name), Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (sole woman there, high level official in the Paris region I think) were the ones who made the most positive impression to me.

Sarkozy is going to take a kick in the butt.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

That's actually great news if they're not shoved in unwinnable districts...
In France (again), a party must pay a hefty fine if they don't field as many men as women in a given election (presidential excepted).
So the way it works is that the parties take the women and shove them in races they can't win, that way they're sure the pesky women can't hold that many seats.

Senate seats can't be gerrymandered and more women are in winnable races than men (though I suppose Strickland and Murphy were supposed to be winnable)

 

[SexyFish]

I shouldn't really care that much, but the debate Wednesday is so intriguing to me, even more so than the first two.

Trump is way behind in polls, and last debate didn't help him at all--how will he modify his debate tactics (if at all)?

Trump is constantly hitting the "rigged polls, media, and voting" soundbites--will he continue to do this at one moderated by a Fox News anchor, especially if he wants his own media network? And, if so, how will Chris Wallace react?

Trump is at his last gasp for a turnaround and this is his last televised debate--how much more over the top will he be than last time? What new accusations will he make?

We're going to get Vince Foster, Clinton Cartel hit squads, and Illuminati mentions I bet.

 

[nature boy]

Is Fox handling the last debate?

No.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

It'll be Peter Thiel. I'm convinced of this.

I think they'll at least pick a government official. My bet is someone like Sessions.

 

[B-Dubs]

We're going to get Vince Foster, Clinton Cartel hit squads, and Illuminati mentions I bet.

Clinton Cartel hit squads? That's a new one for me.

 

[Mael]

So they're...sexymandering?

I'll remind you that I'm talking about the country that gave the world DSK, where is behavior wasn't considered inappropriate and where multiple currently sitting ministers are accused of Sexual assault.

Senate seats can't be gerrymandered and more women are in winnable races than men (though I suppose Strickland and Murphy were supposed to be winnable)

Again, this is why the US is awesome like that.
I can tell you that without touching how districts are cut there's way to make sure women are not elected.
That the Dems don't do that is fantastic.

 

[AnotherNils]

Pointless now, but I'd love it if Anderson asked about that conference on her immigration that never materialized

 

[StopMakingSense]

Is Fox handling the last debate?

Fox moderator, but the presidential debates are all produced by the debate commission.

 

[OmniOne]

538's Senate model really seems to be on the move now. Projecting 52D - 48R, NC now blue.

 

[HanShotFirst]

538's Senate model really seems to be on the move now. Projecting 52D - 48R, NC now blue.

Lmao , I checked like 30 minutes ago and NC was still lean R. Whatever, its good news.

 

[HylianTom]

538's Senate model really seems to be on the move now. Projecting 52D - 48R, NC now blue.

I hope that this is the oft-predicted late movement with the Presidential winner. It'd make sense.

 

[User 463088]

COLORADO: Clinton 45 - Trump 37, Johnson 10
FLORIDA: Clinton 48 - Trump 44, Johnson 4
OHIO: Trump 45 - Clinton 45, Johnson 6
PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 47 - Trump 41, Johnson 6

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/...ing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2388

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@kylegriffin1
New @QuinnipiacPoll swing state polls:

CO
Clinton 45
Trump 37

FL
Clinton 48
Trump 44

OH
Clinton 45
Trump 45

PA
Clinton 47
Trump 41

Ohio

Edit: Damn you Adam.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Observation that gets lost in Hillary's historic candidacy: a pretty decent number of Democratic senate candidates are women and if most of the close races are won by Democratic women, significantly closer to half of the Democratic senators will be women.

Check my math: If Democrats win the close races (North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Wisconsin), that would be seven women winning for a total of 18 women Democratic senators out of 54 Democratic senators.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I'll remind you that I'm talking about the country that gave the world DSK, where is behavior wasn't considered inappropriate and where multiple currently sitting ministers are accused of Sexual assault.


Again, this is why the US is awesome like that.
I can tell you that without touching how districts are cut there's way to make sure women are not elected.
That the Dems don't do that is fantastic.

Not that awesome when currently only 20% of our congress are women

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Friend found not guilty. This will probably turn into a national story.

What's this about?

 

[Syncytia]

I'm going to see Michelle in Phoenix on Thursday. I think I'm going to cry.

 

[B-Dubs]

What's this about?

Apparently a friend is on trial for murder or some such and just got off. Other than that we have 0 details. I want details, don't make me hunt them down.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If Q is showing Ohio as a tie that's good for us, really.

 

[OmniOne]

I hope that this is the oft-predicted late movement with the Presidential winner. It'd make sense.

I really think we're going to land at a 53 or 54 seat majority, depeding on of Hilldawg can drag Murphy across the line or more likely, Kander pulls it out in MO.

 

[jiggle]

Let me guess... "When the go low, I go high."

Fixed

 

[cartoon_soldier]

If Q is showing Ohio as a tie that's good for us, really.

But now Clinton hasn't led in last 3 polls.

 

[RastaMentality]

I'm going to see Michelle in Phoenix on Thursday. I think I'm going to cry.

come to reno pls michelle (everywhere else is too far from norcal) ;(

 

[Emarv]

Okay, okay. I forgive you, Ohio.


For now.

 

[jmdajr]

Fox moderator, but the presidential debates are all produced by the debate commission.

I see.

 

[User 463088]

If Q is showing Ohio as a tie that's good for us, really.

And I agree. Quinn has had a great ability to find a bunch of white people.

But now Clinton hasn't led in last 3 polls.

That's not how this works.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Check my math: If Democrats win the close races (North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Wisconsin), that would be seven women winning for a total of 18 women Democratic senators out of 54 Democratic senators.

You're forgetting Duckworth picking up Kirk's seat.

 

[jtb]

Interesting that 538's Senate forecast seems to be significantly more optimistic about D chances than the Upshot's, especially considering their Presidential forecast had the reverse.

 

[ZealousD]

Fox moderator, but the presidential debates are all produced by the debate commission.

I think Chris Wallace is right-leaning but him and Shep Smith are the relative voices of reason on that channel. I don't think it's in Chris's interest to go too hard on Hillary relative to Trump.

 

[thebloo]

But now Clinton hasn't led in last 3 polls.

She lead 7 consecutive polls from the start of the month. And she's more than 2% up in Huff Pollster. If she continues to be up by 5-7 nationally, no way she doesn't take it.