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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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shiba5

Member
Hillary Clinton, in the second debate, looked legitimately pissed. I hadn't seen her that frustrated since the "Artful smearing" debate with Bernie. She would then on on to rip him a new asshole in subsequent debates.

Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment. But I really feel like Hillary is going to be on the attack on Wednesday.

7 hours of debate prep for the final debate? Shit's going down...

She definitely held back because of the town hall format. Imagine that oaf huffing and puffing and stalking you around the stage... but gotta appear Presidential and be above it all. I couldn't do it.
Also, his mouth reminded me of Beeker from The Muppets so I couldn't see anything else after I made the connection.
 
I don't think most things could be filibustered expect for Supreme Court appointments and amnesty.

They'll surely nuke it for Supreme Court appointments since they already did that for the lower courts.

I mean, most big progressive things (expanded child credit, expanded EITC, carbon taxation, Obamacare stuff, higher taxes on the rich) could be done through reconciliation.
 

TyrantII

Member
Schumer is going to be the Majority Leader, if the Dems win, and he's not going to get rid of the filibuster. It's not about balls, it's about if the GOP ever winds Congress and the Presidency at the same time again.

Yes. Let's look at all the precedent they haven't broken, like appointing SCOTUS nominees, shutting down government, and coming dangerously close to not raising the debt ceiling.

Anyone that thinks the GOP will appreciate long term consequences over fucking up federal government as bad as they can, is a fool.

Dems would be wise to nix it and fix as much as they can. You can run on success and its easier to ask for forgiveness than permission.
 

shiba5

Member
Is there an audience at this last debate? I expect him to say "lock her up" and whatever else plays to his base if there is one.
 

royalan

Member
I think it is probably more of a, "Trump could do anything, so we need to be prepared for everything" deal.

I don't think so. Trump's own psychology telegraphed his strategy. He get applause for his zingers last debate. He's going to double down on that.
 

TheFatOne

Member
Hillary Clinton, in the second debate, looked legitimately pissed. I hadn't seen her that frustrated since the "Artful smearing" debate with Bernie. She would then on on to rip him a new asshole in subsequent debates.

Maybe I'm setting myself up for disappointment. But I really feel like Hillary is going to be on the attack on Wednesday.

7 hours of debate prep for the final debate? Shit's going down...

I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment here. She's most likely just going to continue to do what she did in the last debate. I don't see a real need to change up her strategy here.
 

shiba5

Member
I don't think so. Trump's own psychology telegraphed his strategy. He get applause for his zingers last debate. He's going to double down on that.

I actually thought he was contemplating hitting her at one point - like he was weighing the pros and cons when he was looming behind her. I expect that would go over like gang busters to the craziest of his base.
 

Holmes

Member
I have a secret hope that Hillary reaches about 51-52% in the popular vote because that's what Obama got in 2012 (not taking into consideration the margin of victory). It'd signal to me that despite all else, Democrats are in a consistently strong place electorally when it comes to the presidency, not to mention reaching over 330 EVs for three elections in a row.
 

Teggy

Member
Have to expect Trump to go full "rigged" and Hillary will have to knock it out of the park with a response. Preferably something that includes the 50,000 voter registrations that were seized in Florida and voter ID laws.
 
Is there an audience at this last debate? I expect him to say "lock her up" and whatever else plays to his base if there is one.

Trump reverted to his stump speech in debate 2 because he wouldn't prepare and that way at least had said the lines enough to put the words together into coherent thoughts. It doesn't help him win the debate, but it's better than what he rolled out in the first one.
 

shiba5

Member
Trump reverted to his stump speech in debate 2 because he wouldn't prepare and that way at least had said the lines enough to put the words together into coherent thoughts. It doesn't help him win the debate, but it's better than what he rolled out in the first one.

Maybe he'll start knocking shit over too.
 
Dems had a chance to nuke the filibuster years ago, and didn't do anything.

I wouldn't hold your breath.

Dems were still under the illusion the GOP would negotiate years ago. That's no longer true.

Since obama's first term, the GOP has gone balls to the wall on denying supreme court appointments, shutting down the government, and obstructing literally anything democrats oppose just because they can.

There is no benefit to hanging on to the filibuster or even trying to use the threat of nuking it as a bargaining chip, because the modern GOP doesn't believe in bargaining or compromise.

this is why we got "executive order" obama as late as we did, because its finally become obvious that the GOP doesn't believe democrats can or should govern anything.
 
Look where his right hand is...

And I just vomited a little in my mouth.

This is straight up the type of shit my uncle did in public around young girls. Every one assumed it was him being awkward. It all made sense when my cousin finally came out that he'd been molesting her for years.

Trump really is a disgusting vile piece of shit human.
 

Teggy

Member
Eek

Betsy Woodruff
Betsy Woodruff‏ @woodruffbets

Apprentice employee says Gary Busey sexually assaulted her on the show, Trump knew about it, and didn't do anything

One guess what he did to her
Grabbed her by the pussy
 

pigeon

Banned
It's a big risk unless you can guarantee that the GOP will never win majorities in Congress and the Presidency at the same time again. They could do a lot of damage in two years, let alone four.

Once again, it's really unclear to me why you would imagine the GOP wouldn't immediately nuke the filibuster if this happened.
 
Also, how fucking worthless would it be to have a wave election that carried the House and Senate only to have nothing get done because the GOP filibusters every major piece of legislation because we didn't win a super majority? It'd be so 2009.


FTFY

I share everyone's enthusiasm and hope it's nuked, I just haven't been talked into everyone's optimism yet.
 

Emarv

Member
I truly don't understand the point of having a live audience at the debates.
There is no good reason other than "that's how it's always been" and "these big donors paid big money to get to be here".

Audiences are dumb and should be removed.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Strategically, having a liberal SCOTUS will be a permanent firewall against any crazy future GOP government.

This is key in my calculation on this topic.

If it's inevitable that the nuclear option is going to be deployed, I want the Dems to be the ones pulling the trigger, giving us the Supreme Court for the next 20-30 years. The Senate is likely to go heavily red in 2018, and we don't know if Hillary will luck-up with a weak opponent in 2020 (never mind what the economy will be doing by then).

This is our window for change. Grab the court for the next generation, and trust that it will keep the GOP's excesses in-check if they get too egregious with the policies they enact. In the meantime, over those 2-3 decades, the demographic time bomb will continue to tick.. forcing the GOP to either adapt or die.

With that said - I do wonder if Schumer will try a "talking filibusters only" rule at first.
 
Am I reading the chart wrong? '72 looks to be similar in male/female split. The biggest divergence looks like '96-'98

What am I screwing up here?

The title is referencing the overall margin, not the gender gap. Women went for Nixon by an over 20-point margin and haven't favored one candidate by such a margin since.
 

sazzy

Member
KWTtDk.png


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/15/i...ginalia&src=me&version=section&pgtype=article
 
People really act like if the Rs win the election, they aren't going to absolutely ram everything they've dreamed of through like hell. they don't give a shit about bipartisanship. the filibuster would get nuked the day they get in office.
 
Dems were still under the illusion the GOP would negotiate years ago. That's no longer true.

There is no benefit to hanging on to the filibuster or even trying to use the threat of nuking it as a bargaining chip, because the modern GOP doesn't believe in bargaining or compromise.

What we're saying here is that the GOP cannot EVER be reformed. Once we cross that bridge, blown it to Hell, and then moon the other side, we forstall all possible debate and leave center-right with no other options but to go along with the most intransigent voices. Basically, you've invited Civil War and neutered any voice that could possibly speak against it.

We can re-work the filibuster and the screwed up cloture system. Even bat guano Bible-tossing Conservatives have argued for relatively thoughtful tweaks.

Breaking the institution without having the muscle in the states to offer Constitutional amendments to fix them, only compounds the idiocy the GOP has exhibited. The answer to radical assholes isn't to become a louder radical asshole, even if it's sooooo fucking cathartic
 

Cyanity

Banned
hmm, maybe we should nuke the filibuster and ram so much awesome Dem agenda through that the economy explodes so violently that every human being on earth dies from sheer ecstasy, and the GOP never gets to do anything ever again for the rest of time, Amen.
 
What we're saying here is that the GOP cannot EVER be reformed.

yes, that's exactly what we're saying. That party has screwed itself into a situation where it's been hijacked by racists, evangelicals, and tea party lunatics driving it farther to the right every year. Try to backtrack and moderates get "primaried" for not being conservative enough.

moderate republicans are scared to fucking death of this, which is why all of them are in lockstep on completely insane things like the debt ceiling.

The GOP isn't salvageable. It has no interest in governance, only dismantling what democrats have built and preventing them from building anything else.
 

Bowdz

Member
How anyone on the side of the Democrats can be in favor of keeping the filibuster because of fear of Republican reprisal is beyond me.

This is the party that has refused to even hold a hearing, which is historic, for the president's SCOTUS nominee for 216 days, one of the longest vacancies in modern history. This is the party that has held up more judicial nominations than any other period purely for political reasons. This is the party that has left diplomatic posts vacant for years. This is the party that made the debt ceiling a political negotiating tool and has threatened to do so again. This is the party that has shut down the government twice because they didn't get what they wanted. This is the party that has bemoaned reconciliation and then turned around and used it.

They do not care about political convention, tradition, or even good governance. They are playing to win and yet we still have people ignoring the fact that the GOP will nuke the filibuster the first day they take all three branches of government. They are not interested in negotiating. That much should be abundantly clear to anyone who has been paying attention for the past 8 years. Lets remember that we lost the Cap and Trade bill, the Public option in the ACA, and countless compromises purely because of the 60 vote cloture threshold.

It's crazy considering the virtual filibuster and 60 vote cloture rules don't really have much historical precedent. They emerged in 1975 through filibuster reform. The filibuster doesn't appear in the Constitution and for the majority of the history of our country, we have survived with a commonsense filibuster rule in place, not this 60 vote nonsense.

It needs to be nuked by either party and frankly, it should be the Democrats. We need to play offense instead of assuming the GOP is still a rational party.
 

Grief.exe

Member
We need to play offense instead of assuming the GOP is still a rational party.

Agreed. The Democrats are operating as if the Republicans are still attempting to run the country in the people's best interest.

Nuke the filibuster, get as much rammed through as possible, and get reelected in 2020. Let the Republicans reform if they want to win an election, not keep power by depressing votes.
 
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