The exit polls are useless until Washington, Oregon and California report in and that takes days,
PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
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The exit polls are useless until Washington, Oregon and California report in and that takes days,
No argument from me there. Hopefully the eight is repealed soon(I doubt it but still...)
Would love an age breakdown on those groups.
Coriolanus
Banned
nyt data
218
Hillary Clinton
58,879,687 votes (47.6%)
279
Donald J. Trump
58,844,144 votes (47.6%)
yarp, its 2000 again.
218
Hillary Clinton
58,879,687 votes (47.6%)
279
Donald J. Trump
58,844,144 votes (47.6%)
yarp, its 2000 again.
The problem with 'demographics are destiny' is that we were supposed to lose the rust belt in a decades time, at worse. Not 2016. They suddenly gained the blue firewall states we relied on, and we didn't flip a single one of these 'future democratic states'.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Over 95% of the vote is in nationally at this point; the shifts aren't going to be that large. Either way, none of those are important states, so to put it another way: Trump's largest gains in states that mattered, racially, actually came from non-whites.
This doesn't fit what a lot of people in this thread have been saying.
No sleep. Well, I laid down... I can't remember the last time I was so scared for this country. 9/11 I guess.
Really starting to think someone like Jeb or Marco would have been better to run against. They wouldn't appeal to the worst of US society therefore not enthusing voters who are typically unreliable. But even if they somehow did win through other means, we'd still be better off.
I feel like I'm gonna puke.
Really starting to think someone like Jeb or Marco would have been better to run against. They wouldn't appeal to the worst of US society therefore not enthusing voters who are typically unreliable. But even if they somehow did win through other means, we'd still be better off.
I feel like I'm gonna puke.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
Somewhere Al Gore is screaming. Like we all are.
Honesty I don't even believe that. Polls were so fucking off there's nothing to indicate that those are correct.
A Serious Man
Member
If there is a silver lining, it's that Trump brought every single deplorable out of the woodwork and he still got less votes than Romney. They absolutely can be beaten, it'll just require the other side to show up.
shinra-bansho
Member
Because she had gains from Whites with college degrees.
Her margins with minorities weren't as good. True. Although, I don't know whether Presidential exit polls of Latinos are just as bad, as regular polls. And Hispanic/Latino is ambiguous (assuming though they separate White Hispanics some how).
But.
Men. +5
White without college degree. +14
Self-hating minorities, sexism, and Barack Obama being awesome, but not awesome enough to convince people that his legacy needed saving against Trump.
More to it than that, but it's definitely not as simple as saying Bernie woulda won it, when he wasn't courting the AA vote at all during the Primaries.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Exit polls are much more reliable than ordinary polls because with exit polls you don't need a turnout filter - you're asking people who actually did vote, for definite.
But honestly, if we go the hardcore skeptic route and insist we can't trust any of the data, we're even more fucked, because how do we work out how to go forward?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Right, but I'm saying that Trump's win isn't reducible to just white-lash. Trump may have been +14 in whites without college degrees, but overall, he was only +1 white voters, because educated white voters veered sharply away from him. This was a class reorientation, not one of race, and to the extent voting trends can be spotted along racial lines, they're actually minorities becoming more Republican (or alternatively Democratic minorities not turning up while Republican minorities continued to do so).
shinra-bansho
Member
Wouldn't you still get nonresponse bias. I.e. MAGA Fuck yeh, Trump. Take back our country. I ain't answering your stupid poll, I gotta go get loaded and my wife better have made dinner or she'll get it.
I think the white percentage was even higher basically. The rural vote shattered records and broke for trump big time. Plus does exit pollling take into account early voters?
In addition does the exit polling conduct it in Spanish for the Latino vote? Because the Spanish speaking only is where Clinton did best.
nature boy
Member
Folks, slight %s in minority support doesn't matter.
Comparing 2016 to 2012 is pretty depressing, because she's down everywhere that matters.
Comparing 2016 to 2012 is pretty depressing, because she's down everywhere that matters.
Black Mamba
Member
The numbers are so close on minorities, and latino vote is notoriously difficult to gauge, that there could be no change, there. Or very very slight.
And as pointed out, college educated whites moved towards Hillary.
The key is looking at the districts. The rural districts increased turnout massively. So while a lot of urban white educated people moved towards Clinton in far blue states (Cali, NY), it was offset by a massive influx of non-voters in rural America, especially in swing states and the rust belt.
Looking at overall margins doesn't tell the tale.
To repeat, in Florida...Clinton won Miami-Dade by 100k more than 2012 Obama. 100k! That should have been enough, alone, to win it. White rural voters popped up out of nowhere in that state and numerous others.
That's the biggest takeaway for me and why the polls missed it. These people probably haven't voted since Reagan or haven't ever voted and are the children of Reagan voters who never left their small towns and never had a reason to vote prior.
Basic assumptions. What did Trump do that was different? Who did he bring out based on what the media and campaigns were saying?
Racists.
Misogynists.
Low-skilled/jobless (the Rust Belt and Rural voters).
Anti-abortion voters (who should be ashamed of themselves for absolving Trump of assaulting women).
People who hate fatties (file with Misogynists).
People who hate Muslims and Others (including those minorities who take the "Fuck you, I got mine" stance).
Most importantly, though, and this is a cross-section of the above:
People who don't care about facts. It's all about the feelings - "I can get jobs back", without people caring how. No willingness to look beyond the veil, and educate them selves on the issues.
Way to try and fix that? Early voting with booklets describing every measure, policy and candidate.
Poker Face
Member
id say something about third party voters but most of them are probably just closet trump supports
clevbrowns94
Member
That's just fucking shocking given all his comments about minorities.
Looking at state by state changes. Clinton outperformed Obama in Florida, but Trump wayyy outperformed Romney. In Pennsylvania, 1m and some Obama voters became Trump voters. In Wisconsin... the same amount of voters as last time voted Republican, but Clinton lost over 200k Obama voters. In Ohio, it's even worse: Trump barely improved on Romney, but Clinton lost over 500k Obama voters.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I think we're arguing at cross-purposes? I'm not saying that no white votes mattered, I'm saying that: white votes as a collective didn't matter. White people didn't vote on the basis of race consciousness, as pigeon was arguing earlier, because white people didn't actually vote together at all. White people voted along class - the working class swung towards Trump, the middle class towards Clinton. And that right there should be a key signal this actually is economic at stem - that's why we're talking about the urban-rural divide at all.
Dominican Power
Member
I can give two shits about this country anymore.
The idea that more Americans probably want Hillary Clinton to be President than Donald Trump, but we will be shackled to the the dead hooker that is middle america/donald trump because of the founding fathers is beyond gruesome. Like, pretty much no one would be innocent here, including people who have been dead for over 200 years.
nature boy
Member
I REALLY want to know what demographics stayed at home.
His "what do you have to lose" comments may have been more effective than widely believed to have been taken by those groups.
shinra-bansho
Member
Except even if you take it as a class divide, this "economic anxiety" driving this class divide has been harnessed through animosity towards minorities, immigrants, (((globalists))).
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
The "both sides" people that stayed at home are the people to blame here from what I can see. Absolutely dreadful. I'm just praying for our future now. It's all i can do.
banefirelord
Banned
I feel oddly calm after having gotten some sleep. Strange feeling.
It's that feeling of warmth you get when you freeze to death.
Black Mamba
Member
Okay, i mostly agree. But.
white working class voters voted based on race, not economics IMO. The divide in class but really it's education. Education leads to changes in class, after all.
Less educated people are more likely to be bigoted.
Why would any poor working class person vote Republican to begin with? It's mostly nonsensical without race involved.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes. There's no denying that. So we need to figure out how to either address the base economic anxiety or figure out how to explain that minorities and immigrants didn't cause it, instead of the status quo Democratic approach which is just ignoring the rural world and waiting for it to die.
Poker Face
Member
Officially up for 24 hours and don't feel tired..at all. Called out sick from work though, don't want to fall asleep on the job.
In a few days reality sets in but people will go about their routine. I think people are glad it's over but also fucking depressed as well if that makes any sense.
Black Mamba
Member
Honestly, I'm unconvinced there is a solution here that doesn't involve abandoning minorities.
Poodlestrike
Banned
CreepingFear
Member
That's called shock.
Yes, and?
The two are linked in these white racists' minds. They DO feel economically anxious, but they blame it on minorities because that's who they've been conditioned to believe is the source of the problem. If the Dems had campaigned hard on anti Wall Street populism they probably could have stunted that narrative somewhat.
Exactly. You can't argue it on simple economics, because rather than do what Clinton did and say your jobs are gone, but we'll retrain you, Trump implicitly and explicitly gave reasons for those jobs being gone - minorities, the Mexicans, the Chinese, the Jews.
And it's for this reason why sexism and racism can't be discounted, either - ingrained into personalities and communities is the belief that woman and minorities are lesser, which feeds into the anger of "Why do these people have my job?"
djplaeskool
Member
lol
Now Iran is like, "Yeah, congrats Trump...So....about that Nuclear Deal..."
Now Iran is like, "Yeah, congrats Trump...So....about that Nuclear Deal..."
Poodlestrike
Banned
Sez you. Then it becomes a battle between two different scapegoats (anti-minority and anti-wall street). Which do you think would be stronger?
nature boy
Member
TBH, there's only one Dem candidate that can win in 2020:
Michelle Obama
But yeah, not gonna happen.
Michelle Obama
But yeah, not gonna happen.
Coriolanus
Banned
Fwiw, he also said/lied that he'd bring them back. Wouldn't discount that.
Black Mamba
Member
you can't tell these white people it's not because of other people. Facts don't matter. They "feel" it.
I do not see any solution. Todd Akin would have been elected 4 years ago if the GOP stood by him. That, now, shows me the only reason he lost is they didn't waive away what he said as nothing. GOP brass stood by Trump and it worked.
I'd love to hear a real solution to this problem.
I do not see any solution. Todd Akin would have been elected 4 years ago if the GOP stood by him. That, now, shows me the only reason he lost is they didn't waive away what he said as nothing. GOP brass stood by Trump and it worked.
I'd love to hear a real solution to this problem.
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