Well, he probably would have about the same, but that's beside the point. The question is whether or not he would have taken away the rust-belt vote that ended up turning out in high numbers for Trump.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
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Well, he probably would have about the same, but that's beside the point. The question is whether or not he would have taken away the rust-belt vote that ended up turning out in high numbers for Trump.
No. Those voters vote based on race and not class.
Coriolanus
Banned
Easy. Hills as veep. Bam, all bases covered. #dreamteam. (dont wake me up)
Black Mamba
Member
It is clear that in some places turnout for Dems was down that mattered.
So the problem is while there's still a lot of white resentment with power...
soft Democrat voters need a charismatic person to follow. Bill Clinton. Barack Obama. Charismatic.
Gore. Kerry. hillary. Not charismatic.
It sucks, but it really is somewhat a reality TV show. People don't vote on policies. At all. They look at the state of the economy (from their current perspective) and how likable the candidate is.
That is it. Obama retained enough in 2012 because Dems really liked him. He's cool.
Oh god, this is so depressing to think about. Democrats can no longer not nominate someone who isn't charismatic...
So the problem is while there's still a lot of white resentment with power...
soft Democrat voters need a charismatic person to follow. Bill Clinton. Barack Obama. Charismatic.
Gore. Kerry. hillary. Not charismatic.
It sucks, but it really is somewhat a reality TV show. People don't vote on policies. At all. They look at the state of the economy (from their current perspective) and how likable the candidate is.
That is it. Obama retained enough in 2012 because Dems really liked him. He's cool.
Oh god, this is so depressing to think about. Democrats can no longer not nominate someone who isn't charismatic...
Goes back further to the '80s too.
Black Mamba
Member
Honestly, the best choice for the Dems would have been Ted Cruz.
Donald was going to grab the new rural voters.
No Dem was charismatic enough to do this. And no, not Bernie.
But Ted Cruz was scummy to everyone. Kasich would have won, too.
Donald was going to grab the new rural voters.
No Dem was charismatic enough to do this. And no, not Bernie.
But Ted Cruz was scummy to everyone. Kasich would have won, too.
shinra-bansho
Member
I mean, this idea that Trump was somehow the bastion of the working class. With his policy, or lack thereof. Some of which actively hurt them. He's a listener. When he doesn't actually even bother with meeting with voters. And has zero attention span.
Whereas Clinton actually had policies aimed at helping them. Is kind of bizarre.
I mean it makes sense, if you simply accept these people don't care about policies that will help them, and are racist idiots. He told them what they wanted to hear. Namely the browns are why your lives are bad.
But I don't see how it makes sense in saying it's because no one cared about their issues, except Donald. Unless you mean their issues are the browns.
Whereas Clinton actually had policies aimed at helping them. Is kind of bizarre.
I mean it makes sense, if you simply accept these people don't care about policies that will help them, and are racist idiots. He told them what they wanted to hear. Namely the browns are why your lives are bad.
But I don't see how it makes sense in saying it's because no one cared about their issues, except Donald. Unless you mean their issues are the browns.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
Yup, looks like we need someone charismatic to get out the vote. Hillary just wasn't doing it, she was too toxic. Sad but true.
Poodlestrike
Banned
I don't see how they can, at this point. Unless you're willing to jettison women and minorities, the Trump Base can apparently carry the day in a national-scale election.
Dominican Power
Member
Trump's cabinet is gonna be a shit show.
aspiegamer
Member
I'm not sure if the term "massive populist movement" in the nymag piece is entirely accurate for this situation given how low voter turnout was and that any Trump win in the PV will be tiny. The advertised Trump strategy was to suppress the vote via discouraging minorities and being so negative that people ran away from it all. And it worked. It's a populist movement among white people that scare the shit out of everyone else and that's the only reasonable conclusion you can draw right now.
Edit: Serious talk, Obama might want to "pre-pardon" Hillary on his last day to avoid a third-world style dictator revenge situation.
It would be shocking if he didn't do this stuff. He hinged his campaign on promising petty, vindictive assholeish revenge. His base supporters are going to be furious if he doesn't immediately go after the media, expand libel, jail Hillary, deport, ban Muslims, etc.
Edit: Serious talk, Obama might want to "pre-pardon" Hillary on his last day to avoid a third-world style dictator revenge situation.
I think racism played a big part in this election, but I seriously feel like everyone underestimated the hate for the Clinton family and in turn "the establishment". Having lived in the south most of my life I constantly heard people I thought were above racist bullshit and whom I considered friends say they were willing to look past everything to keep Clinton out of office and to hurt the establishment. The hate for them to me in some ways was greater than people's hate for minorities, gays, pro choice, etc. It's infuriating and depressing as fuck, but those reactions are out there and they have been yelled constantly this election. We just chose to ignore them because we assumed people were decent enough as human beings that there was no way they'd shit on their fellow man/woman to see it through.
It's going to be amateur hour. I pray to God he doesn't seriously consider using nukes.
D
Deleted member 30609
Unconfirmed Member
I hope Hilary is resting. A brutal campaign handled with dignity.
Poodlestrike
Banned
I mean, we're basically looking at a total lockout of Democrats from national politics for at least 10 years. The Senate is clearly gone, barring a massive backlash election, the House is gerrymandered to hell (and is going to stay that way until at least 2030 now), and apparently all you need for the Presidency is someone willing to be hateful enough to turn out the Trump Base.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
I don't know what stage of grief this is; but I'm morbidly curious to see what of his platform was bullshit and what he intends to propose.
On the other hand, congress should vote to remove the war powers act during the lame duck session
On the other hand, congress should vote to remove the war powers act during the lame duck session
If they don't have someone charismatic and relatively unsullied in 2 years I could definitely see an attempt to recruit Michelle take place.
They're going to come down so hard on states with legal weed.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Here's one prediction: he is not going to do one fucking thing to Hillary Clinton and no one will give a shit. He respects her and liked her in another life and everyone who voted for him stopped giving a shit or even believing she should be "locked up" the minute he won.
Maybe it's just a fool's hope but I think there are a lot of things he can or will just go back on or ignore and it won't matter because people voted him in just for the hell of it, basically.
aspiegamer
Member
Ooh, that's a good one. You'd think even a majority of Republicans would want in on that in an effort to cover their asses for responsibility from the wars they'd inevitably be tied to in the years to come.
Scorched earth on this, perhaps literally.
I think President Trump *shudders* said he would let the states decide?
Ether_Snake
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It's pretty much certain Trump stays for eight years. People will give him all the benefit of the doubt in the world, they don't expect change overnight, he'll be able to claim that the "great America" is coming any minute. The only thing that can make him lose is a really really big prolonged economic crisis starting early on, and even that would be blame on past policies.
I can even see Democrats voting for Rubio, McCain, Ryan, any Republican needed "to keep Trump in check", if they don't fall in line.
People prefer to vote for someone they think will win regardless of party lines.
I can even see Democrats voting for Rubio, McCain, Ryan, any Republican needed "to keep Trump in check", if they don't fall in line.
People prefer to vote for someone they think will win regardless of party lines.
Isn't is possible that, save some huge catastrophe before 2018 that creates some mid-term backlash, the GOP can have a filibuster proof majority in the senate after the mid-terms? This of course assumes there is a filibuster.
balladofwindfishes
Member
I don't think Trump cares that much about weed
If the economy crashes it'll end his presidency.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I am skeptical that would make any difference. If the Wall Street narrative mattered at all, it doesn't make sense that white working class voters would continue to vote for and prioritize a party that opposed and now wants to strip away the financial protections that were put in place in the wake of the financial crisis. You can't argue that the Democrats should have tried harder, because a major reason the Dodd-Frank Act wasn't even stronger is Republican intransigence. They could have tried to attack the financial industry in their rhetoric, but not even Sanders's message showed much signs of resonating with the typical Trump supporters. Inasmuch as the far right cares about Wall Street, it's probably conflated in their minds with "globalism", and it's not like Trump has much of a plan to deal with it anyway. As far as I know, he wants to strip away regulations. Of course, the factors driving the far right populism are complex and numerous and obviously economic anxiety played a role, but not to the degree that the white working class can be won over by actual leftist economic policies; I think that's a mere leftist dream. They will reject almost anything put forward by the left.
I don't either, but Pence does. If Pence truly is the one making most of the decisions, I can see him vigorously trying to shut it down.
djplaeskool
Member
I don't know if they want to set off a states-rights challenge so soon out of the gate.
Of course he does. It's great to keep incarceration high. "Law and Order"
Black Mamba
Member
Depressing, Not enough middle class Dems showed up in many places, that's for sure.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think Michelle Obama is brilliant, an amazing orator, and she's highly popular (right now).
And I'm still not convinced that against the GOP, which will now be all aboard this shit train, united against her and stoking these rural whites... she would win in 2020.
I think it's probably comforting to think this is a one-off. It was the candidate and otherwise it would be all good.
I think this is a bigger (darker) shift. But maybe I'm a cynic.
And I'm still not convinced that against the GOP, which will now be all aboard this shit train, united against her and stoking these rural whites... she would win in 2020.
I think it's probably comforting to think this is a one-off. It was the candidate and otherwise it would be all good.
I think this is a bigger (darker) shift. But maybe I'm a cynic.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
Given exit polling, I'm beginning to think that the main thing driving Trump's win was an anti-establishment sentiment. It explains why Bernie shared a big portion of his base and why dem turnout was low - even dems are sick of their establishment class and that's all that Hillary represented to them. Trump picked up too much minority support for his racism to have been a deciding factor in many people's minds. It may not have been as successful of a hitting point for many voters compared to people whose number one concern is systemic or direct racism.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Well at least the millenials will turn out in 2020 then.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
I guess we Dems have to look for our outsider savior that's also charismatic. I cannot understate charismatic aspect since Americans only seem to give a crap about charisma when choosing a leader.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
I wouldn't believe any of the direct numbers but they've been consistent within a point or two.
aspiegamer
Member
Hah, so it wasn't even the root of the "suffering" working-class that went for Trump? Why am I not surprised. They have the most to lose, unfortunately. The return of #FYGM and tax cuts!
Someone in the chat said r/the_donald was laughing at us, like, specifically? I'm not sure why that place thinks we're particularly noteworthy or "important." Dear anyone not a white male reading this thread for salt: Good. Luck.
Someone in the chat said r/the_donald was laughing at us, like, specifically? I'm not sure why that place thinks we're particularly noteworthy or "important." Dear anyone not a white male reading this thread for salt: Good. Luck.
Exit polling showing minority support abive Romney is likely not accurate. It was a reduction in minority voting and a massive white turnout.
It doesn't really matter as much in a parliamentary system.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes. And now that we can expect immigration to come down, and diversification to reduce we can be sure that states like TX which Dems will need now won't turn blue anytime soon.
Colbert 2020 everybody! I can't believe I'm not even joking either....
Ether_Snake
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Pence won't take the decisions, Trump will, Pence will just work a lot of hours. But there is no way in hell that Pence will direct the country while Trump is president. Trump is probably actively trying to figure out how to get rid of him.
Christie, Rudy? They'll have a lot of weight on Trump, same with Icahn and to a lesser extent Thiel and other dangerous outsiders.
It's the Bush years all over again but with some crazier people and no Cheney.
She has charisma, but a black woman for president? How's that going to go over in the Panhandle? It'll either be a genuine blue-wave, or a blow out like this was, and you've got to think that now Breitbart are in the White House, there's will be a massive ripple effect against strong independent women that'll get the GG'ers and Deplorables out.
I'm still saying Kander is the best bet for a 2020 Dem President. He's got charisma all day long, and he's a fucking white guy. No upset sensibilities there.
He promised some things that he can do almost unilaterally:
Overturn Obama executive orders relating to climate change, and I think he can get us out of the Paris and Iran deals without congress, but somebody correct me if I'm wrong on that.
Other things he promised (repealing Obamacare) need the help of congress, but now that they control everything, it's very likely.
He can also nominate SCOTUS justices that will be strongly anti-abortion and anti-any-gun-laws-whatsoever. The democrats can filibuster the nominations, but Republicans can also nuke the filibuster to get them appointed. And it's very likely that Trump could be appointing two justices, and shift the power back to conservatives dramatically.
Other things (build the wall, deport millions of undocumented immigrants) need congress, and are still going to be difficult without large republican support (the same republicans who avoided supporting Trump). But if they fall in line, he could literally sign a bill that says we're going to build a wall and divert massive resources to locating and deporting immigrants. Guess what would be the check on some of those laws? The fucking SCOTUS. Dammit.
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