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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Tal Shiar Agent

Tal Shiar Agent

Banned
tedtropy said:
Why is Richie Rich on CNN assuring us that Trump is smart and compassionate?

9CvxmVq.jpg
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Looks kind of like Draco Malfoy.
 
M

Makai

Member
ShironRedshift said:
Maybe not in terms of who actually becomes the winner, but it sure means a fuck ton to me personally regardless:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=223312859&postcount=929

And NC isn't the only viable pickup. Arizona's definitely also still doable and maybe Georgia if we're super-lucky though that one's less likely. In addition, while we won't actually win states like Texas or Alaska in all likeliness, it's going to be super close this year and while that won't matter in terms of the winner, that will show up in the popular vote and while that doesn't effect the winner that nonetheless means a lot to me personally, re: the above linked post of mine.
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The last 16 years are more or less proof that "sending a message" isn't real. Dubya won with -0.5% of the popular vote and he thought he had political capital. Obama won by 7% and got blocked at every turn.
 
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Barzul

Member
The black millenial called those two guys on their shit. Didn't sugar coat her responses at all. "Whenever people say traditional values, I hear racism of the past...I wanna move and look forward to the future, that's what being progressive means". Or something like that.
 
S

silvon

Member
538 has Dem's chance of having majority in the Senate at 49something percent, whereas PEC has it at 79%. Why the big difference?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
silvon said:
538 has Dem's chance of having majority in the Senate at 49something percent, whereas PEC has it at 79%. Why the big difference?
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Senate polling is a mess this year. You can get reasonably get either outcome. I just hope this last burst of Clinton-mentum pushes us over the top in a couple of races.
 
T

Tall4Life

Member
Effect said:
The very fact that Weld would say these things goes into why he's a Libertarian and not a Republican. That being said I think Hillary should fill her cabinet with Dems to not take any risk regardless if they seem sane.

Another topic. Has there been any indication in the early voting that there is a secret Trump vote out there that some were claiming? People that wanted to support him or would but won't admit it? We know the flip side of that is different and happening for Hillary as there are a LOT more Hispanic/Latino voters out there voting then anyone thought would show up.
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No, there's no "silent majority" that was excluded from the polls.
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Effect said:
The very fact that Weld would say these things goes into why he's a Libertarian and not a Republican. That being said I think Hillary should fill her cabinet with Dems to not take any risk regardless if they seem sane.

Another topic. Has there been any indication in the early voting that there is a secret Trump vote out there that some were claiming? People that wanted to support him or would but won't admit it? We know the flip side of that is different and happening for Hillary as there are a LOT more Hispanic/Latino voters out there voting then anyone thought would show up.
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There's no evidence of a secret Trump vote.

However, there might be evidence of a secret Hillary vote that wasn't represented in polls, given the huge increase in Hispanic turnout, and African American turnout matching or exceeding 2012 (polls generally thought AA would decrease since 2012 and they barely even polled Hispanics at all).
 
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BiggNife

Member
silvon said:
538 has Dem's chance of having majority in the Senate at 49something percent, whereas PEC has it at 79%. Why the big difference?
Click to expand...

PEC is an outlier in this case. Everyone else seems to agree that the Senate race is a dead heat that could easily go either way.

Worth noting that PEC ignores the potential for polling error more than 538, Upshot and other models, which probably accounts for why it seems more confident.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
It's kind of amazing to me that people still fear the "Silent Majority" coming out for Republicans en mass when so many elections have shown that it doesn't exist.
 
C

Captain Pants

Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I was wide awake at 5:30 this morning just full blown anxious about everything in the world. I've been calm ever since the first debate, and even now that I know we're going to win this thing, the anxiety is here full force. It doesn't help that my dad is leaving the family business for a paying job and that I'm going to have to fill his shoes starting today. All kinds of nerves, even though I think we carry NV, FL, NC and OH. I just want it to be over with so that I can go back to just being worried about my day to day life.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Man, NC is gonna be tight. Really comes down to what college educated whites do and how much they break either way, and also what share of the electorate is Hispanic.

Also, if Trump can get his voters to the polls. Which.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I just read this article between John Harwood and the chair of the Freedom Caucus:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/on-e...ir-talks-about-misperceptions-of-the-gop.html

I am now dumber as a result of it. What an insane bunch of answers. "Hey, we can't reach millennials when it comes to gay marriage, but we sure can when it comes to the 2nd amendment!"

Sure thing, guy.

HARWOOD: What you hear anti-Trump Republicans saying is that we need to follow the autopsy of 2012. We've got a party that is too insular, that is speaking to too few people and is not reaching out to African-Americans, Hispanics. It is it not adapting to the way the culture is changing on issues like gay marriage.

JORDAN: I disagree. I was at a Trump event just last week. You saw all kinds of folks there — African-Americans, Hispanics-Americans, 8,000 people crammed into this fairground arena.

HARWOOD: If you look at the polls, he is doing very poorly among African-Americans.

JORDAN: I'm telling you what I saw there. You saw people in camo[uflage]. You don't always see people in camo at a Republican event.
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What does that even mean?

HARWOOD: What do you make of the idea that millennial voters think the Republican Party and its way of thinking, especially on cultural issues, is just stuck in the past?

JORDAN: Folks in the House Freedom Caucus understand civil liberties need to be protected from the government. That is the way we can appeal to millennials. We have some people in the House Freedom Caucus who have been champions of defending your Fourth Amendment rights, defending your First Amendment liberties, defending your Second Amendment. That is where you can connect as well.

HARWOOD: Gay marriage?

JORDAN: Well, I'm just on the other side of that. I think marriage should be what it has always been. I think it serves Western culture well.

But that doesn't mean we can't connect with all voters when we talk about your fundamental liberties, your right under the First Amendment to speak out in a political nature and not be harassed by the IRS. I think that should apply to conservatives, I think it should also apply to liberals. They shouldn't be harassed by anyone for speaking out about their liberal policies and their liberal ideas, just like tea party groups and conservative groups should not have been harassed and targeted by the Internal Revenue Service like they were.
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So you can connect with more liberal millennials by referencing Tea Party and conservative groups. These guys are clueless.
 
B

BiggNife

Member
Lord Frieza said:
It's kind of amazing to me that people still fear the "Silent Majority" coming out for Republicans en mass when so many elections have shown that it doesn't exist.
Click to expand...

Because of two things

1) It's a plausible theory that sounds entirely possible if you don't put any research into it, especially considering how polarizing of a candidate Trump is, and

2) People looking at Brexit and fearing the same thing will happen here even though they're not comparable.
 
O

Owzers

Member
whyamihere said:
You always watch the loser on election night.

So, Fox News.
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They won't be fun losers, they'll declare victory even if they only hold the house, have a party if they keep the senate, or talk about their deep conservative bench and how Trump was really a liberal anyways.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Maxim726X said:
Always seem to be.

You'd think that pollsters would try to address this at some point, but apparently they have not.
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Bilingual polling seems to be the only appropriate fix. Certain pollsters aren't going to want to do that.

But I guess at a point it's going to need to happen whether people want to hear what it reveals or not.
 
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balladofwindfishes

Member
Maxim726X said:
Always seem to be.

You'd think that pollsters would try to address this at some point, but apparently they have not.
Click to expand...

Can they address it? Just having a Spanish option isn't going to necessarily increase response rates enough to accurately poll them.

Presidential polling is going to have to have some sort of new innovation very soon, because it's getting less and less reliable as time goes on.

Zukkoyaki said:
Her firm has Clinton +3 as of today so probably not
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Oh well. That's probably close enough to the margin, and it's the same as everyone else, so if she's wrong, everyone is wrong.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Plinko said:
I just read this article between John Harwood and the chair of the Freedom Caucus:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/on-e...ir-talks-about-misperceptions-of-the-gop.html

I am now dumber as a result of it. What an insane bunch of answers. "Hey, we can't reach millennials when it comes to gay marriage, but we sure can when it comes to the 2nd amendment!"

Sure thing, guy.



What does that even mean?



So you can connect with more liberal millennials by referencing Tea Party and conservative groups. These guys are clueless.
Click to expand...

Do young people care about gun ownership?
 
W

WiiredShawn

Member
Plinko said:
I just read this article between John Harwood and the chair of the Freedom Caucus:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/on-e...ir-talks-about-misperceptions-of-the-gop.html

I am now dumber as a result of it. What an insane bunch of answers. "Hey, we can't reach millennials when it comes to gay marriage, but we sure can when it comes to the 2nd amendment!"

Sure thing, guy.



What does that even mean?



So you can connect with more liberal millennials by referencing Tea Party and conservative groups. These guys are clueless.
Click to expand...

Republicans: "People are sick of sending candidates to Washington who get nothing done!"

Obama: "Hey, would you guys work with me to get something done?"

Republicans: "No!!"

Their inability to reflect is truly astounding.
 
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