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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
- Start date
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Ignatz Mouse
Banned
So Nate Silver was right, there was a significant chance of systematic issues with the polls.
I really wish he'd just have been wrong.
I really wish he'd just have been wrong.
If it's any consolation, I don't think the pre-existing condition of statute will be removed from future bills.
Yeah. Now I'll never get food nights sleep again. Hell I still haven't slept. This is a nightmare that will never end. I've lost the will to do anything with my life. America voted and I'm never going to amount to anything as a minority. And now people will be legitimized to discriminate against me and other people of color. While the government, police etc turn their backs on us.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
I had the worst dream last night.
Already Torn
Banned
I don't think he's a fluke necessarily, but he was definitely our one chance and we blew it. Now our kids will think the pyramids were built to store grain and that all Muslims are evil and that chance will be lost.
Basileus777
Member
This was basically John Edwards' campaign message.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
You were actually able to sleep last night?
Considering how many Trump voters supported him because they hated Hillary, I fail to see how Bernie couldn't have done better there with the white vote.
Coriolanus
Banned
god damn son, i shudder to think of what you'd have written if you wanted to.
CitizenVectron
Member
Assuming that Trump is reigned in by the GOP somehow on extreme matters, and that Congress manages to be at least a sane check on him, if not a good one, we can at least assuming the following:
- Climate change efforts are done. The largest issue facing the world (which received 0 election coverage) is done.
- Voter suppression will begin on large scales again, likely supported by extreme-right judges appointed.
- Wealth disparity will increase.
- Russia will be unopposed in Eastern Europe.
- Climate change efforts are done. The largest issue facing the world (which received 0 election coverage) is done.
- Voter suppression will begin on large scales again, likely supported by extreme-right judges appointed.
- Wealth disparity will increase.
- Russia will be unopposed in Eastern Europe.
Clinton scaremongering turned to communism scaremongering. Among that crowd, it'd work.
Also the alt-right would easily mobilize against Sanders in the same way.
CrimzonSamurai
Member
Such an opportunity sacrificed on the altar of sexual escapades and just terrible humanship.
What call?
shinra-bansho
Member
I don't think anyone should be gleeful at the idea of restrictions on the free press...
At the same time, I hope the media realises the part they played in creating this monster.
At the same time, I hope the media realises the part they played in creating this monster.
I had something of an ominous feeling when I read his article the other day about how large the uneducated white vote was, and how they don't tend to turnout.
nature boy
Member
Democratic base seems ok with Trump president and R control of the Congress.
Ugh. I hate seeing this and I hope he (I know he had a twitter. Can anyone PM it to me if you have it?) and others are okay. I'm not but nothing I can do.
I took off sick from work today which isn't a lie. I'm just going to try and avoid a lot of things the next few days and weeks and process.How shitty is your media to not cover that, it's insane
Black Mamba
Member
uh, there is no doubt that I was 100%, unequivocally wrong about this election.
I know 538 gave a higher liklihood to Trump, but they were still very wrong. And it should be noted that 538 only gave like what, a 3% chance to Hillary pop vote win and election loss, which is what happened. And I still think his model is wrong unless I see his model re-ran with an incumbant rather than one that isn't (my guess is it would be about the same as the other models). Regardless, you're kind of arguing they're a bit less wrong. They still have basically 3:1 odds on Hillary winning. Of course, the issue was the polling itself. No model could survive state polling being this wrong.
I am most certainly reconsidering my beliefs. I have to. I said at the beginning I am shocked and am trying to figure out what happened.
I don't believe Bernie would have won. Why? Because my beliefs have already changed. But yes, I will admit more than ever I am less certain of that position because I have to be less certain of every position I've had regarding elections. This loss makes that obvious.
Did I really say Bernie would only win Vermont? I must have said that before Biden got out, I imagine. Fuck man, I don't know. I don't know shit about this shit, anymore.
Before Poli-Gaf I didn't talk much about these things. I talked about actual policy and actual results of policies. Maybe I should go back to that.
I was wrong. Very wrong. And I want to know why.
aspiegamer
Member
The press is mentioned in the Constitution as the only non-federal occupation protected from anything. They have a goddamn duty to make sure stuff like this doesn't happen and they failed miserably. Either the broader media grows a pair or it collapses and needs to be rebuilt from scratch. Can I pox them on those grounds? I don't even mean ill will toward any specific persons there. And there are journalists that did fantastic work I hope are rewarded for it and continue, of course.
The old avatar is back! Unfortunately circumstances.
His entirely life to date has been scandal after scandal and it didn't stop him from being elected.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Just the thought of people like Steve Bannon and Corey lewendowski roaming the white house makes me sick.
The only thing giving me hope is that no way Trump lasts 4 years without a huge scandal or causing lots of harm. So he will be out of there in 2020...i hope.
BTW how soon do terrorist groups try to bait Trump into a conflict in the Middle East?
The only thing giving me hope is that no way Trump lasts 4 years without a huge scandal or causing lots of harm. So he will be out of there in 2020...i hope.
BTW how soon do terrorist groups try to bait Trump into a conflict in the Middle East?
CitizenVectron
Member
To be fair to 538, they were actually right for the exact reason they stated: their model gave Trump a higher chance due to uncertainty that a large polling error was hidden...and that's what happened. But it was even bigger than they thought (they thought max of 3%, it was 4%).
Already Torn
Banned
Yeah we're screwed for sure. Even if the last three don't happen and we have Kanye in office in 2020 it's over.
It was covered at one of the debates. It was clarified that Trump's official position is no longer that global warming is a Chinese hoax.
Mr. Lemming
Member
I hope we at least get that $1 trillion in infrastructure out of this.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Bright side.....
Things will get so bad that real estate prices will come down!
Yep we're fucked
Things will get so bad that real estate prices will come down!
Yep we're fucked
I was considering avoiding work also due in part to a lack of sleep, but decided against it. I figured getting out of the house and solving problems at work would be better for my frame of mind. But I am going to try to avoid the news for awhile.Ugh. I hate seeing this and I hope he and others are okay. I'm not but nothing I can do.
aspiegamer
Member
I thought he just (wrongfully) denied that he ever said that, not that he thinks any differently of the situation? At best, that perhaps it may not be a Chinese hoax, but that it's still bullshit.
Aaaaaaaahahahaha. Maybe if it's conveniently attached to tax cuts.
Already Torn
Banned
nature boy
Member
It begins
Can't imagine how much Estonia is shitting themselves
Can't imagine how much Estonia is shitting themselves
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I think I slept for one hour. I live in nyc, so we're sorta shielded from emboldened racists but I feel those in middle America who aren't white.
Black Mamba
Member
my problem with that is two things.
1. I didn't feel like there was enough baked in for a polling error the other way. But maybe they increased the error one way to go against the incumbent party (in which case, this might be correct)
2. dos this mean there was a shift in the state of the race when 538 was at 90%+ or was it due to response rates? If it's the latter, the 538 model was just as wrong as every other model, only was lucky regarding the timing of the polling. That is, if the election was held 2 weeks ago, they would have been very fucking wrong like everyone else.
If it's the former, I want to know what changed the race.
But hey, Silver was right to worry about a big polling error. And Hillary not being near 50% enough was the justification for it and I learned a lesson there. As did everyone else.
I feel so bad for the Hillary campaign. They worked so damn hard, they did everything right, and they still lost. It's heart breaking for Mook, for Podesta, for Hillary, and for Huma. They went through so much these last months and still came up short. Life isn't fair at all.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Nate actually had:
His model definitely accounted for that outcome. Like obviously his model didn't produce it as the most likely outcome, but what model would have given the polling inputs? Nate correctly made the assumption that polling is not always accurate, and accordingly simulated a range of alternative options according to different possible polling errors. That's about as good as you can do. If polling errors were predictable, they'd be correctable, and hence wouldn't exist, so in the long-run they have mean 0 but a reasonably wide standard deviation. That standard deviation introduces uncertainty, hence why despite Clinton finishing on average nearly 4 points ahead in the polls, he still only had her at 70% to win. Now, obviously the model's most likely outcome didn't happen, but it did allow for the outcome we saw. Comparatively, for Wang, the absolute darling of this thread, we can now say his model was definitely wrong, because it didn't allow for this outcome at all.
His model definitely accounted for that outcome. Like obviously his model didn't produce it as the most likely outcome, but what model would have given the polling inputs? Nate correctly made the assumption that polling is not always accurate, and accordingly simulated a range of alternative options according to different possible polling errors. That's about as good as you can do. If polling errors were predictable, they'd be correctable, and hence wouldn't exist, so in the long-run they have mean 0 but a reasonably wide standard deviation. That standard deviation introduces uncertainty, hence why despite Clinton finishing on average nearly 4 points ahead in the polls, he still only had her at 70% to win. Now, obviously the model's most likely outcome didn't happen, but it did allow for the outcome we saw. Comparatively, for Wang, the absolute darling of this thread, we can now say his model was definitely wrong, because it didn't allow for this outcome at all.
People were talking about the permanent Republican majority in 2004. That didn't last.
Lots of stuff can change quick. Republicans have to govern now and it's all on them.
Trump isn't getting 80% of the rural county vote if he is a bad President. Dems will nominate someone with less baggage this time who's a fresh face.
The only bit of good I can see coming out of the next four years is an infrastructure bill that actually does set about rebuilding roads, tunnels, bridges and creates tons of new jobs. I'm not hopeful that, filtered through a Republican congress, it will in any way be what we need or want. But it's the only thing he's touted on the stump that I think may hold some glimmer of hope.
Gerrymandering has made the House of Representatives very different from what it was 10 years ago. The kinds of southern blue dog seats that the Dems relied on to win a majority in the '06 wave don't exist anymore.
QuiteWhittle
Member
The SCOTUS won't ever have a liberal majority in our lifetimes...
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Almost certainly, votecastr is DOA.
Frank the Great
Banned
The world is about to get a whole lot more violent.
Tough time to be a member of the world.
Tough time to be a member of the world.
Already Torn
Banned
You can provide stats for movies about how we're all dead
Black Mamba
Member
Didn't realize it creeped up that high. Okay, question, relating to my last post.
If the election was held two weeks ago but the results are the same, then that means Nate's model and he himself were as wrong as everyone else. His model was better only because the inaccurate polling was more accurate in the recent term. If you flip it, the results change.
That is, 2 weeks ago Nate would have been arguing about the polling error and before the election would have claimed it was a done deal. So does this actually mean he was more accurate or lucky? I can't tell.
Now, in fairness, maybe it's not all response rates and maybe something changed. I don't know, no one knows.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Ten years is pretty optimistic. It took us 70 years to get universal health care. The New Deal and great society, voting rights, EPA all took massive congressional majorities. All that stands to be undone. Not to mention their Supreme Court majority.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This means these states are not out of reach forever
Along with Trump not doing great in a bunch of blue trending red states paints a more positive outlook for 2020
With the right candidate we can rebuild the blue wall. We just assumed voters wanted someone qualified for the job. When charisma is really what they want
Every dem presidency lost in the modern era was due to an uncharismatic candidate. Every win was with someone dripping with charisma.
I didn't see Hassan winning this, and I expected it to be close...just not this close.
Well, now isn't the best time, but some of us who voted for Bernie in the primary and Hillary in the general were warning of this a while ago. But we were shouted down, and things were rationalized. http://static.currentaffairs.org/20...s-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency
Now, this only matters because we now have to learn from this and figure a path forward. But a lot of the arguments that I argued against (in vain) back in late 2015 early 2016 will have to be re-litigated.
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