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[Isaac Otherworld]

no, the red flags were Trump doing as well as he did in the primaries...

Bernie's loss was routine. This Bernie stuff doesn't make sense to me at all.

Then again, this election came from seemingly nowhere so I'm not the best judge, obviously. None of us are, I suppose.

Bernie went from someone only political junkies like us were aware of to someone who got 46% of the primary vote against one of the most well known politicians in our lifetime who had the party apparatus actively helping her by leaking her debate questions. That doesn't even cover the media and how it framed the democratic primaries. I remember one debate / townhall where Coumo was screaming, redfaced at Bernie crying "WHY DO YOU WANT TO PUNISH THE RICH" for four questions straight. While Hillary got four questions in a row about how many endorsements she's recently gotten and why does Obama love her so much more than Bernie.

I'm only being slightly hyperbolic.

People are angry and have been for some time, left and right. The wounds of the 2008 financial crash never healed. People hate all the billionaires that profited off it while they languished. People hate the donor class directly shaping policy and the politicians left and right that kiss up to these people. They hate the cocktail parties where people hang around saying "Indubitably" at each other for hours on end and they hate everyone in it. Of course the person most tied to that was going to lose.

 

[Pixieking]

A reminder that RBG laid some groundwork to keep abortion rights in June.

She dismisses Texas’s argument about its interest in protecting “the health of women who experience complications from abortions,” by countering that “complications from an abortion are both rare and rarely dangerous.” She recites a laundry list of studies of how safe abortion is, and then she delivers the message: “So long as this Court adheres to Roe v. Wade, 410 U. S. 113 (1973), and Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pa. v. Casey, 505 U. S. 833 (1992), Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers laws like H. B. 2 that ‘do little or nothing for health, but rather strew impediments to abortion,’ Planned Parenthood of Wis., 806 F. 3d, at 921, cannot survive judicial inspection.” [Emphasis added.]

She is writing into law the factual finding that abortion is safe, full stop. When the court turns to the Alabama law, with its “finding” that women need abortion to be restricted, she wants that future court to be able to cite to her opinion that they do not.

 

[nature boy]

David Rothschild ‏@DavMicRot 8m8 minutes ago
Current vote difference for Trump in Clinton firewall: MI 15,611 / WI 26,788 / PA 67,902. Clinton currently +135,671 votes total. Wow.

Double wow

 

[Good Job Bob]

The Democrats are about as limp and useless as the UK Labour party now

 

[shinra-bansho]

Cohn is the darling of this thread.

Also, the GOP has four years to ingrain this. To suppress voting rights for groups that break Democratic.

------

Meanwhile, yes, it must fucking suck to be Hillary Clinton. I'm aware a lot of people don't like her. But you're a smart, studious woman born into a poor family who has worked hard her entire life, who had taken repeated losses, and endured endless public humiliation, and bullshit "scandals", who has had an entire industry trying to bring you down. And kept on going, to try and reach this moment and become the first woman President. You've been working towards this for 30 years and it's nearly in your reach.

And some rich fuck comes out of nowhere and wins it away. And not any rich fuck. But a rich misogynist who appeals to the worst in people. On the back of the votes of white men.

 

[Poodlestrike]

You know what I think happened?

I really think Comey won this thing for Trump. He galvanized softer Republicans who might have stayed home, and depressed soft Democrats who were going to come out just to vote for the "winner." Considering how small the margin is in the relevant states, that's the ball game right there. She still woulda lost FL and NC to the rural turnout, but the firewall would've held.

 

[Nelo Ice]

Well I made all my social media private, legitimately scared of being harassed by his supporters. And for that matter I almost don't want to leave the house anymore since they're free and legitimized. This result has fundamentally broken me. I don't even care about teaching myself coding or lifting anymore. It feels like life is over.

 

[SquashMatch]

People were talking about the permanent Republican majority in 2004. That didn't last.

Lots of stuff can change quick. Republicans have to govern now and it's all on them.

Trump isn't getting 80% of the rural county vote if he is a bad President. Dems will nominate someone with less baggage this time who's a fresh face.

Nah, we will just blame Obama for the next few years for any problem that comes down the road. Pretty effective strategy as proven by the Democrats.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The Democrats are about as limp and useless as the UK Labour party now

I have faith Obama is going to spend the next few years making sure the DNC gets its act together

A poor institution has been coasting for too long. We should have seen the warning signs when we literally cannot win anything but the presidency. And even that, we only win with top tier candidates that you don't come across often

 

[Plinko]

I feel so bad for the Hillary campaign. They worked so damn hard, they did everything right, and they still lost. It's heart breaking for Mook, for Podesta, for Hillary, and for Huma. They went through so much these last months and still came up short. Life isn't fair at all.

LOL this is ridiculous. She lost. They clearly did not do "everything right."

She disappeared for weeks at a time. She had horrid answers at the debates for her issues and never did a good job of explaining the email issue, allowing republicans to effectively attack her for months on the issue. She had horrible baggage that was exposed and preyed upon by the Trump campaign.

She was a flawed candidate. I wasn't a Bernie fan, but he was a much better choice for the GE.

 

[nature boy]

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini 5m5 minutes ago
It looks like African American turnout may have been way down. This was probably not factored in to most turnout models.

.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Didn't realize it creeped up that high. Okay, question, relating to my last post.

If the election was held two weeks ago but the results are the same, then that means Nate's model and he himself were as wrong as everyone else. His model was better only because the inaccurate polling was more accurate in the recent term. If you flip it, the results change.

That is, 2 weeks ago Nate would have been arguing about the polling error and before the election would have claimed it was a done deal. So does this actually mean he was more accurate or lucky? I can't tell.

Now, in fairness, maybe it's not all response rates and maybe something changed. I don't know, no one knows.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Look at the decided how to vote section. Looks to me like the undecided voters were Republicans all along who broke for Trump in the last few days. If you made your mind up in the last week, you voted 50% Trump and 38% Clinton. No model can really predict that well how undecideds break, on account of them being undecided - you can do a bit by looking at party registration and the overall economic situation and how much they approve of the president and so on, but ultimately you just have to increase the uncertainty associated with the election. This is *exactly* what Nate Silver did. Moreover, he explained this to everyone a very long time before hand: the election was volatile because of the high degree of uncertainty induced by undecided voters. And apparently this was ESPN induced clickbait. An awful lot of people in this thread need to eat their words over that.

It should have been an enormous warning signal that Clinton struggled to break 48% in the polling.

 

[bplewis24]

Every dem presidency lost in the modern era was due to an uncharismatic candidate. Every win was with someone dripping with charisma.

So, who does that bring into play? I continue to think that Gavin Newsome is the only charismatic figure we have. Can he win over the rust belt? Maybe Cory Booker? But I don't think he has quite the same charm and cachet of Obama (who does?). I think he will be seen more as bluster than cool to some undecided/casual voters.

So, who else is there that has charm, charisma, a populist message, AND seems down-home enough to win over the rust belt and enough of the vote south of the Mason-Dixon?

 

[kirblar]

You know what I think happened?

I really think Comey won this thing for Trump. He galvanized softer Republicans who might have stayed home, and depressed soft Democrats who were going to come out just to vote for the "winner." Considering how small the margin is in the relevant states, that's the ball game right there. She still woulda lost FL and NC to the rural turnout, but the firewall would've held.

Yes.

 

[Fox318]

This all started with democrats not showing up at the polls in 2010.

It gerrymandered the map and led the way for a Tea Party revolt that culminated with Trumps victory.

DNC needs to reach out to white voters and reaffirm its hold on college educated women.

They need to build a coalition around people who will actually show up at the polls.

 

[Plinko]

.

And AA reps and politicians were screaming about this for months and yet were ignored. Another huge mistake by the Clinton campaign.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

So, who does that bring into play? I continue to think that Gavin Newsome is the only charismatic figure we have. Can he win over the rust belt? Maybe Cory Booker? But I don't think he has quite the same charm and cachet of Obama (who does?). I think he will be seen more as bluster than cool to some undecided/casual voters.

So, who else is there that has charm, charisma, a populist message, AND seems down-home enough to win over the rust belt and enough of the vote south of the Mason-Dixon?

Someone who has yet to be elected

In 2000, Obama was a nobody.

 

[Pixieking]

You know what I think happened?

I really think Comey won this thing for Trump. He galvanized softer Republicans who might have stayed home, and depressed soft Democrats who were going to come out just to vote for the "winner." Considering how small the margin is in the relevant states, that's the ball game right there. She still woulda lost FL and NC to the rural turnout, but the firewall would've held.

Comey won it all right... But not by galvanizing voters. There's a NYT article about the last two weeks of Trumps campaign which basically had his advisers saying "We can use Comey and the emails as a focus point, as long as Trump stays on point." Without Comey, Trump would've had nothing to focus on.

 

[shinra-bansho]

A reminder that RBG laid some groundwork to keep abortion rights in June.

The problem is when a case is appealed all the way up to the 6-3 court that Trump stacks during his 8 years.

 

[Diablos]

You know if we're talking about 1% margins in crucial firewall states then I honestly wonder if we'd be looking at a narrow Clinton victory if Comey would have just never sent that letter.

 

[Plinko]

A reminder that RBG laid some groundwork to keep abortion rights in June.

This won't matter. They'll define it as murder.

And people need to stop blaming Comey. These voters were going to turn out regardless of that letter.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The Democrats are about as limp and useless as the UK Labour party now

Hillary Clinton is a good at look at what would have happened to Yvette Cooper, I think.

 

[newshinycd]

So I wrote this in another thread:

They "want" to repeal it, but they would have to come up with their own plan that won't have the same issues as ACA. If their plan causes the same amount of issues or more than the ACA, then that's free ammunition for the Democrats. Right now ACA is their war drum against Obama and the Democrats, and they'll probably "keep it" (read: let the democrats filibuster the bill) for that reason alone.

I look at this election like this: GOP is stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They actually have to govern now rather than just say "no" to everything. They can't sit around and do nothing because the base that voted them in will want them to keep their promises. And any new laws passed that cause more issues than solves means Democrats can capitalize and beat them over the head with it.

 

[Cheesewheel]

fmd how do western countries seem to find the person with the most batshit insane view on climate change and elect them leader.

Europe is going to run with open arms straight into the anti-immigration promises of the right wing and get saddled with their climate change denial agenda too.

 

[Plinko]

So I wrote this in another thread:

They "want" to repeal it, but they would have to come up with their own plan that won't have the same issues as ACA. If their plan causes the same amount of issues or more than the ACA, then that's free ammunition for the Democrats. Right now ACA is their war drum against Obama and the Democrats, and they'll probably "keep it" (read: let the democrats filibuster the bill) for that reason alone.

I look at this election like this: GOP is stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They actually have to govern now rather than just say "no" to everything. They can't sit around and do nothing because the base that voted them in will want them to keep their promises. And any new laws passed that cause more issues than solves means Democrats can capitalize and beat them over the head with it.

Wrong. It's gone day one.

 

[Black Mamba]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Look at the decided how to vote section. Looks to me like the undecided voters were Republicans all along who broke for Trump in the last few days. If you made your mind up in the last week, you voted 50% Trump and 38% Clinton. No model can really predict that well how undecideds break, on account of them being undecided - you can do a bit by looking at party registration and the overall economic situation and how much they approve of the president and so on, but ultimately you just have to increase the uncertainty associated with the election. This is *exactly* what Nate Silver did. Moreover, he explained this to everyone a very long time before hand: the election was volatile because of the high degree of uncertainty induced by undecided voters. And apparently this was ESPN induced clickbait. An awful lot of people in this thread need to eat their words over that.

It should have been an enormous warning signal that Clinton struggled to break 48% in the polling.

Yes, I realize this now and don't disagree.

But you didn't really address the issue of the model's timing. How much was Silver being less wrong due to lucky timing rather than a better model?

BTW, just read Nate Cohn's piece he released.

White Working Class voters over 45 were 10 million larger than estimated. THAT'S NUTS.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

So I wrote this in another thread:

They "want" to repeal it, but they would have to come up with their own plan that won't have the same issues as ACA. If their plan causes the same amount of issues or more than the ACA, then that's free ammunition for the Democrats. Right now ACA is their war drum against Obama and the Democrats, and they'll probably "keep it" (read: let the democrats filibuster the bill) for that reason alone.

I look at this election like this: GOP is stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They actually have to govern now rather than just say "no" to everything. They can't sit around and do nothing because the base that voted them in will want them to keep their promises. And any new laws passed that cause more issues than solves means Democrats can capitalize and beat them over the head with it.

Yep

It's easy to talk about all the things that you could do if only you had power, versus the things you actually can do when you do get power

 

[Averon]

I'm beginning to think the Democrats were never fully "healthy". Obama is an aberration. His rock star status and strong victories in 2008 and 2012 masked a lot of the problems the Democratic Party has.

2010 and 2014 were signs of that, but nobody at the DNC picked up on it.

The Democrats are a sick and ineffectual party propped up by a rock star of a politician (Obama) that comes once in a generation.

 

[Plinko]

Yes, I realize this now and don't disagree.

But you didn't really address the issue of the model's timing. How much was Silver being less wrong due to lucky timing rather than a better model?

BTW, just read Nate Cohn's piece he released.

White Working Class voters were 10 million larger than expected. THAT'S NUTS.

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

 

[Goodstyle]

I was just thinking about those 80-100 year old women who turned out to vote, who wanted to see a woman become president before they died, and I just got so sad. Almost cried, this rarely happens to me over things as cheesy as that, but here we are.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Hum

 

[Wilsongt]

The world just seems depressed today... Yet it keeps spinning, as does Kellyanne.

At least we have four years of Ana destroying fools.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Yes, I realize this now and don't disagree.

But you didn't really address the issue of the model's timing. How much was Silver being less wrong due to lucky timing rather than a better model?

BTW, just read Nate Cohn's piece he released.

White Working Class voters were 10 million larger than expected. THAT'S NUTS.

That is what made Trump possible. Polling wasn't wrong per say, models weren't wrong either. Clinton camp's overall strategy wasn't wrong.

Trump's candidacy just made a lot more WWC voters show up than have historically. Partly, it made a lot of them feel comfortable with expressing their bigotry too. If same people show up in 2012 Obama loses to Romney too.

 

[kess]

Bothered by the self censotship occuring here and in the media.

The massive dossier on Trump by various reporters isnt going to go away despite the election results.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yes, I realize this now and don't disagree.

But you didn't really address the issue of the model's timing. How much was Silver being less wrong due to lucky timing rather than a better model?

BTW, just read Nate Cohn's piece he released.

White Working Class voters were 10 million larger than expected. THAT'S NUTS.

I don't think timing had anything to do with it. I think when Silver's model was showing 90% Clinton, that was when there was a very large portion of undecideds. When it showed 70%, there was a smaller portion. When Trump won, there were obviously none left. Wang's model literally just ignores undecided voters. They basically don't exist in his model. So no, it was not lucky timing. Silver's model picked up on the break for Trump about as well as any model could given the inputs it was being given.

And yes, people turn up when you give them something to vote for.

 

[kirblar]

I'm beginning to think the Democrats were never fully "healthy". Obama is an aberration. His rock star status and strong victories in 2008 and 2012 masked a lot of the problems the Democratic Party has.

2010 and 2014 were signs of that, but nobody at the DNC picked up on it.

The Democrats are a sick and ineffectual party propped up by a rock star of a politician (Obama) that comes once in a generation.

The problem was when they lost Dean the follow up wasn't there, the DNC hasn't worked well in the 8 years Obama's been there.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Wrong. It's gone day one.

It's not feasible to do that. It would shock the system too much, it's too ingrained. It needs a replacement plan before they can just rip it out.

That's his point. They'll have to actually govern now. No more bluster or big promises that can never be realistically implemented

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Wrong. It's gone day one.

They will have to come up with some replacement first. Some elements are popular enough that they would do damage if just removed (like pre-existing coverage).

 

[bplewis24]

Also, the GOP has four years to ingrain this. To suppress voting rights for groups that break Democratic.

This. And guess what? May not have any SCOTUS to stop it. Obama's legacy of judicial appointments at the circuit court level will bear some fruit for a few more years, but if stuff gets to the SCOTUS level, it might be a wrap.

 

[KingBroly]

Yes, I realize this now and don't disagree.

But you didn't really address the issue of the model's timing. How much was Silver being less wrong due to lucky timing rather than a better model?

BTW, just read Nate Cohn's piece he released.

White Working Class voters over 45 were 10 million larger than estimated. THAT'S NUTS.

And that's the people Trump appealed to, particularly in the last month, by going to states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and (the surprise of the night, IMO) Wisconsin.

Silver's model assumes every poll is accurate and correct. The instant a poll is not correct, it's less valid.

 

[Already Torn]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

The only way Trump reached out to these people was by getting the endorsement of the KKK.

How do you propose we reach out to these people?

 

[Grexeno]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

We can't! THEY'RE RACISTS

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That is what made Trump possible. Polling wasn't wrong per say, models weren't wrong either. Clinton camp's overall strategy wasn't wrong.

Trump's candidacy just made a lot more WWC voters show up than have historically. If same people show up in 2012 Obama loses to Romney too.

Those voters turned up in 2008 and voted Obama. In 2012, they stayed at home. In 2016, the voted Trump. That tells you something about the Democratic party over the last 8 years.

EDIT: Like, from back of the paper workings out there were more white, working class voters in 2008 than 2016. This isn't some unprecedented surge. A lot of these are people who used to be Democrats, especially in the Rust Belt.

 

[Dierce]

I will never respect trump for what he has said and for what he has done. I also expect the media to hold him accountable, at least I can hope so.

 

[Pixieking]

The problem is when a case is appealed all the way up to the 6-3 court that Trump stacks during his 8 years.

Which is why the DNC and Hillary and Bernie and Obama and whoever else they have should energise people for the mid-terms.

It'd take a good two years for a new abortion case to come before SCOTUS. Run a presidential campaign for the mid-terms - clean out the DNC, replicate Reid's (I think?) style of operations across the board. No more fucking lazy-ass local DNC offices, and motivate the Democrats and minorities on the basis of gaining the Senate and protecting rights. Get the Senate, get a liberal SCOTUS in. As long as Roe doesn't come up before the mid-terms, or a SCOTUS dies, it's all good.

If they can, get some money from individuals and companies, and start looking for the next young thing in politics.

In short, motivate their base and the minorities.

That is what made Trump possible. Polling wasn't wrong per say, models weren't wrong either. Clinton camp's overall strategy wasn't wrong.

Trump's candidacy just made a lot more WWC voters show up than have historically. Partly, it made a lot of them feel comfortable with expressing their bigotry too. If same people show up in 2012 Obama loses to Romney too.

The media needs to go all in on the Delporables. Shame the fuck out of their hypocrisy, their bigotry, their willingness to be selfish. And not just the WaPo or NYT, but every fucking paper. Have celebrities give interviews to TVGuide saying how awful the bigotry is.

 

[nature boy]

Clinton lost (and Trump won) 75 EV due to 250.000 votes.

Infuriating

 

[Coriolanus]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

And yes, people turn up when you give them something to vote for.

and this is the key point that i wanna stress, because god damn it, i been saying that for a long god damn time: regardless of feasibility.

 

[Fox318]

I honestly wonder what's going to happen with healthcare enrollment right now.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Clinton should have taken the L last night. Lame she waited till morning.

 

[Dierce]

I honestly wonder what's going to happen with healthcare enrollment right now.

A lot of people are probably not going to enroll is my guess.