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[newshinycd]

The problem was when they lost Dean the follow up wasn't there, the DNC hasn't worked well in the 8 years Obama's been there.

I just had an idea. Could Obama become the chair person of the DNC? Could he run it as good or better than Dean?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

We have no way of doing this in a way they want. Democrats propose legislation all the time that would help them immensely

They ignore it because it might help some black people

We need to lock up the minority vote. 2012 AA turnout and Hillary is president. We need that demographic to become more reliable voters

 

[shinra-bansho]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

Go on. How?

And yes, people turn up when you give them something to vote for.

What were they voting for?

and this is the key point that i wanna stress, because god damn it, i been saying that for a long god damn time: regardless of feasibility.

What does this even mean?

 

[Voror]

He promised some things that he can do almost unilaterally:

Overturn Obama executive orders relating to climate change, and I think he can get us out of the Paris and Iran deals without congress, but somebody correct me if I'm wrong on that.

Other things he promised (repealing Obamacare) need the help of congress, but now that they control everything, it's very likely.

He can also nominate SCOTUS justices that will be strongly anti-abortion and anti-any-gun-laws-whatsoever. The democrats can filibuster the nominations, but Republicans can also nuke the filibuster to get them appointed. And it's very likely that Trump could be appointing two justices, and shift the power back to conservatives dramatically.

Other things (build the wall, deport millions of undocumented immigrants) need congress, and are still going to be difficult without large republican support (the same republicans who avoided supporting Trump). But if they fall in line, he could literally sign a bill that says we're going to build a wall and divert massive resources to locating and deporting immigrants. Guess what would be the check on some of those laws? The fucking SCOTUS. Dammit.

Seriously, people think if someone was running around talking about nothing but Dodd-Frank and Glass-Steagall, Citizen's United and Wall Street rural white people would suddenly be all aboard...

Maybe "disastrous trade policies" I guess.Off the top of my head.

Mexican border wall paid for by Mexico.
A Muslim ban "until we know what's going on."
Supreme Court Justices that will overturn Roe v Wade, gay marriage etc.
Renegotiate and cancel trade deals.
Lock her up.
Oh repeal Obamacare.

The GOP owes control of the Senate to Trump. He owes them nothing.
He can make Reince Priebus go up to the mic and perform for him like a jester on live TV.

Thanks. So that all sounds awful. I guess the only thing I can do is just move forward.

I suppose now the question is what can we do now and what can we learn from this.

 

[kirblar]

I just had an idea. Could Obama become the chair person of the DNC? Could he run it as good or better than Dean?

Obama's been part of the problem here.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

As a Black man in America, the idea of a Guilani AG, who will no doubt champion the national Stop And Frisk, as well as expanded police powers...terrifies me. It terrifies me for the safety of my brother. Neither of us have even so much been handcuffed, much less arrested before.

I have zero doubt that at some point, they will declare the need for body and dash cams, unconstitutional. Hell, they may even push for cellphone cam footage, no matter how damning, to be inadmissible in court. I don't feel like this is hyperbole at all either. It is how I feel.

The Central Park 5 persecution by Trump was only the beginning.

 

[Black Republican]

Wisconsin being a swing state now is pretty amazing

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Also, a lot of this is Clinton's fault even in the long-run. DWS only became the DNC chair because Obama wanted to appease Clinton during the 2008 reunification, so we ended up with a talentless hack running the most important political machine in the country, because Clinton as a person values loyalty over ability. The Democratic Party ossified; we lost state houses, gubernatorial positions, house seats, you name it; all because of nepotism - the exact same nepotism that got so firmly excoriated just now.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't think timing had anything to do with it. I think when Silver's model was showing 90% Clinton, that was when there was a very large portion of undecideds. When it showed 70%, there was a smaller portion. When Trump won, there were obviously none left. Wang's model literally just ignores undecided voters. They basically don't exist in his model. So no, it was not lucky timing. Silver's model picked up on the break for Trump about as well as any model could given the inputs it was being given.

And yes, people turn up when you give them something to vote for.

Again, I agree with that assessment but my point is Silver's model would have been just as wrong as NYT and the others had the election ran at that time (unless there was a real shift in the electorate) and instead we'd only be talking about how the polls fucked all the models and wouldn't even be discussing one model versus another.

I'm going to agree that all the other models relied too much on the point differential and ignored the undecideds.

I stand by my argument that Silver's model was too volatile...it should be much more stable. But in some ways, it obviously handled aspect better than the other models.


Trump gave them something to vote for, I suppose. What that was will be discussed for a long time.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Obama's been part of the problem here.

How so?

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Clinton lost (and Trump won) 75 EV due to 250.000 votes.

Infuriating

If you want to get even more depressed, Clinton lost MI, WI, and PA (a total of 46 EVS and enough to win) by ~110k votes.

 

[Averon]

The problem was when they lost Dean the follow up wasn't there, the DNC hasn't worked well in the 8 years Obama's been there.

The DNC really needs to boot the Clinton loyalists. They have a consistently losing record. Is the any wonder Obama and his team kept them at arms' length? Change won't happen until the DNC gets a complete reworking from the inside out.

Thankfully, this loss by Hilary gives those in the party looking for a new start a great excuse to do just that.

 

[kirblar]

How so?

The DNC falling into ruin happened under his watch.

 

[Nelo Ice]

Which is why the DNC and Hillary and Bernie and Obama and whoever else they have should energise people for the mid-terms.

It'd take a good two years for a new abortion case to come before SCOTUS. Run a presidential campaign for the mid-terms - clean out the DNC, replicate Reid's (I think?) style of operations across the board. No more fucking lazy-ass local DNC offices, and motivate the Democrats and minorities on the basis of gaining the Senate and protecting rights. Get the Senate, get a liberal SCOTUS in. As long as Roe doesn't come up before the mid-terms, or a SCOTUS dies, it's all good.

If they can, get some money from individuals and companies, and start looking for the next young thing in politics.

In short, motivate their base and the minorities.



The media needs to go all in on the Delporables. Shame the fuck out of their hypocrisy, their bigotry, their willingness to be selfish. And not just the WaPo or NYT, but every fucking paper. Have celebrities give interviews to TVGuide saying how awful the bigotry is.

This is all I can believe in right now. If there's any chance of recovery this would be a nice start. I'll gladly volunteer all the time I can to make it happen.

 

[Plinko]

It's not feasible to do that. It would shock the system too much, it's too ingrained. It needs a replacement plan before they can just rip it out.

That's his point. They'll have to actually govern now. No more bluster or big promises that can never be realistically implemented

They will have to come up with some replacement first. Some elements are popular enough that they would do damage if just removed (like pre-existing coverage).

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc.

The only way Trump reached out to these people was by getting the endorsement of the KKK.

How do you propose we reach out to these people?

We can't! THEY'RE RACISTS

We have no way of doing this in a way they want. Democrats propose legislation all the time that would help them immensely

They ignore it because it might help some black people

We need to lock up the minority vote. 2012 AA turnout and Hillary is president. We need that demographic to become more reliable voters

And this is the kind of elitist attitude that costs democrats elections.

 

[Kusagari]

The problem was when they lost Dean the follow up wasn't there, the DNC hasn't worked well in the 8 years Obama's been there.

Obama is the one that nominated fucking Debbie to head the DNC.

It's time to blame Obama. The people he put into positions of power have fucked us over and over again. From Debbie to Comey.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

The only way Trump reached out to these people was by getting the endorsement of the KKK.

How do you propose we reach out to these people?

We can't! THEY'RE RACISTS

I think that we can afford a little objectivity here. Any racists who vote would have already voted Republican anyway. You don't pull 10 million people who didn't show up to vote against a black man if racism is all their vote was based on. It's a general anti-establishment sentiment and a collapse in trust of institutions - fueled in part by a response to perceived right and left wing elitism from the Washington circle.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@AlbertSamaha 37m37 minutes ago
"Clinton Won More Philadelphia Votes Than Obama In 2012, But Still Lost Pennsylvania"

There we have it.

I think that we can afford a little objectivity here. Any racists who vote would have already voted Republican anyway. You don't pull 10 million people who didn't show up to vote against a black man if racism is all their vote was based on. It's a general anti-establishment sentiment and a collapse in trust of institutions - fueled in part by a response to perceived right and left wing elitism from the Washington circle.

Trump made it reasonable to express your racism and bigotry. It was fine to want white back in white house and say it out aloud with Trump.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The DNC falling into ruin happened under his watch.

Ultimately, Debbie appears to have been a huge misstep.

 

[SexyFish]

Hillary to speak at 9:30 according to CNN

 

[Y2Kev]

Those voters turned up in 2008 and voted Obama. In 2012, they stayed at home. In 2016, the voted Trump. That tells you something about the Democratic party over the last 8 years.

EDIT: Like, from back of the paper workings out there were more white, working class voters in 2008 than 2016. This isn't some unprecedented surge. A lot of these are people who used to be Democrats, especially in the Rust Belt.

I don't think there's any real allowance here for the GOP candidate. Why did they vote for Obama or stay home? What did he say that appealed to them?

I think it's that Trump was a lot more effective in capitalizing on them when McCain (and certainly Romney) could not. Minority turnout under Obama was obviously a strong point.

 

[neoemonk]

I feel bad for the LGBT community across the country today.

I feel bad for a lot of people today actually.

 

[Already Torn]

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc.

And this is the kind of elitist attitude that costs democrats elections.

I'm serious though. These people never voted like this before until they had a candidate that started a campaign on hating brown people. They didn't come out for Romney or McCain or any liberal candidate. What do you honestly think they were mobilizing for?

 

[nature boy]

If you want to get even more depressed, Clinton lost MI, WI, and PA (a total of 46 EVS and enough to win) by ~110k votes.

Yeah, I posted that tweet.

110k votes, FFS. GOTV failed miserably, hate to say it

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Again, I agree with that assessment but my point is Silver's model would have been just as wrong as NYT and the others had the election ran at that time (unless there was a real shift in the electorate) and instead we'd only be talking about how the polls fucked all the models and wouldn't even be discussing one model versus another.

I think the whole point is that there was a shift in the electorate - a lot of Republicans who didn't like Trump stayed undecided until the final week or two when they decided that as bad as he was, Trump was at least better than Clinton. Probably because Clinton had spent a reasonable amount of campaign time insulting them.

 

[soundscream]

.

Which is why people claiming Bernie would have won are false. He would have gained more white vote but his AA numbers would have been worse. They really fucked up chasing the electoral blowout rather then getting out the vote in Michigan, NC, and PA.

 

[akinkcl]

We can't! THEY'RE RACISTS

Yes, a large number are racists.. but you still need their vote! Look, I am a black guy(not american tho..I am British) and I saw first hand how the white working class here in Britain voted due to fears about immigrants.. the exact same thing that happened to labour here in Britain is happening to the democrats...and it is not only because of racism..support of free trade and loss of manufacturing jobs has a lot to do with it..the left NEEDS to go back to its populist roots, otherwise they will continue to lose and lose badly

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I feel bad for the LGBT community across the country today.

I feel bad for a lot of people today actually.

Gay marriage is very popular across the country. I'm concerned, but not as much as I am for other things

 

[Spider from Mars]

I'm trying to have a stiff upper lip, but I can't bring myself to watch Trump speak, Hillary speak, the news, nothing.

Elections have consequences and I can only hope that Trump isn't what I think he is.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Blaming Comey is a convenient way to deny an earthquake. He had no impact on this. He didn't make white women vote for Trump, he didn't make parts of the Obama coalition stay home, he didn't convince more Hispanics to vote for Trump than had voted for Romney.

It's over. A lot of people were very wrong, from myself to here to Brooklyn to DC. I'm stunned by the electorate. Not even the white turnout, which might end up being 1-2% better than Romney. The base didn't come out where it needed to come out. There was no firewall. Now a decade of progress is exterminated. And another generation gets to learn that no, both sides aren't the same.

 

[Abinash117]

Looks like some people were right the white electorate still dropped it is 70%. Basically it was decided by a few votes in some states and turnout still down from 2012.

 

[Wilsongt]

I guess the apple didn't fall far from our GB tree.

 

[Coriolanus]

What does this even mean?

Say whatever it takes to get people excited and voting.

 

[Nelo Ice]

As a Black man in America, the idea of a Guilani AG, who will no doubt champion the national Stop And Frisk, as well as expanded police powers...terrifies me. It terrifies me for the safety of my brother. Neither of us have even so much been handcuffed, much less arrested before.

I have zero doubt that at some point, they will declare the need for body and dash cams, unconstitutional. Hell, they may even push for cellphone cam footage, no matter how damning, to be inadmissible in court. I don't feel like this is hyperbole at all either. It is how I feel.

The Central Park 5 persecution by Trump was only the beginning.

Yep. I was in tears calling all my minority and lgbt friends to stay safe. I am scared of what will happen to them or really any of us. One wrong move or hell even living could get us killed or jailed. While no justice will be served.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't think there's any real allowance here for the GOP candidate. Why did they vote for Obama or stay home? What did he say that appealed to them?

I think it's that Trump was a lot more effective in capitalizing on them when McCain (and certainly Romney) could not. Minority turnout under Obama was obviously a strong point.

I agree, it is definitely a two-sided story - Trump played to the heartbreak of rural pain incredibly well. I am just desperate that Democrats don't fall into the trap of supposing that these voters were somehow unreachable. A reasonable segment of them probably voted Obama. Certainly, enough that if they'd been persuaded to vote Clinton, she'd have won.

 

[Goodstyle]

Hillary appealed more to traditional hardcore democrats than Obama did, but anyone who was even a little bit moderate outright rejected her.

 

[Wilsongt]

People saying Bernie would have won are ignorinf the fact that he did abysmal with AAs. Sure, he may have energized young people, but would that have been enough to counter general base apathy?

 

[Mgoblue201]

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc.

That's not a plan. That's a fig leaf to cover for the fact that they don't have a plan, which they've been peddling for years. They will probably still succeed, but dismantling the current Obamacare system will not be painless.

 

[thefro]

Blaming Comey is a convenient way to deny an earthquake. He had no impact on this. He didn't make white women vote for Trump, he didn't make parts of the Obama coalition stay home, he didn't convince more Hispanics to vote for Trump than had voted for Romney.

When it's 110k votes total, you can blame all sorts of thing. A point swing would have made Clinton the winner.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@ForecasterEnten 4m4 minutes ago
Polling errors were highest in states where white non-college grads made up most white voters.

This was all about polls/data missing higher turnout of white non-college grads.

And Trump's Presidency isn't going to solve one shit for them.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

It's so weird this morning all of social media is in mourning it seems.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Which is why I keep slamming democrats for ignoring these people. Stop being elitist. Reach out to these people!!!

WE DO!

We offer retraining, social safety nets, better schools, safer streets, but because we ALSO offer those things to brown people, THEY DON'T WANT ANY OF IT.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Which is why people claiming Bernie would have won are false. He would have gained more white vote but his AA numbers would have been worse. They really fucked up chasing the electoral blowout rather then getting out the vote in Michigan, NC, and PA.

Which states did the AA vote matter in? Let's be absolutely blunt here: neither Clinton nor Sanders was going to do as well as Obama in the black vote. Sanders might have done moderately worse, but let's look at the critical states needed to win: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. How important is the black vote in any of these states, Pennsylvania perhaps aside? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote - a vote Sanders has connected with really well, time and time again? Alternatively, let's look at the states Clinton only just won: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada. How important is the black vote in these states? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote?

If you're Obama, it's a workable coalition. If you're not, you need to look for a different coalition. In this one, it was the rural working class. Who appeals to them better - Sanders or Clinton?

And it is really important to learn from this, or 2020 will be another loss.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

There we have it.



Trump made it reasonable to express your racism and bigotry. It was fine to want white back in white house and say it out aloud with Trump.

I'm serious though. These people never voted like this before until they had a candidate that started a campaign on hating brown people. They didn't come out for Romney or McCain or any liberal candidate. What do you honestly think they were mobilizing for?

Populism. If they're racist enough to turn out to vote for Trump then they were racist enough to turn out to vote against Obama. Most of these people were probably just disaffected and didn't believe in either party and Trump's populism touched a cord. You guys focus on the racist aspects of the Trump campaign because it's what you find most abhorrent, but none of that probably even registered with these people because all they heard was "jobs with colorful language attached" and turned out for that message.

 

[Barzul]

Will Republicans really be as vicious with their agenda as we think? I can't be 100% certain, they wanted to win, they wanted to win bad. But now they have to govern. It's a whole different ballgame.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Say whatever it takes to get people excited and voting.

So... we want someone who is super authentic at lying to everyone.

 

[soundscream]

CNN had some exit polls saying 68% of the people made up their mind before September. If that # is 75% true then no October suprise or debate performance would have ultimately matterd in the end.

 

[Already Torn]

This was all about polls/data missing higher turnout of white non-college grads.

And Trump's Presidency isn't going to solve one shit for them.

I mean, it'll allow them to more easily bully people they imagine they're superior to. Sometimes that all you need.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc

This isn't policy. This doesn't answer how exactly do you gut Obamacare.

This is the same as Social Security. They can talk about removing it all the want, but when it comes down to it, the actual policy to remove it is difficult to pass.

Social Security was a huge target last time the GOP controlled everything. And nothing changed.

 

[Loudninja]

When it's 110k votes total, you can blame all sorts of thing. A point swing would have made Clinton the winner.

Yep,third party vote or people not taking the time to vote going to be alot of what ifs from people and regret.