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[ryutaro's mama]

It's so weird this morning all of social media is in mourning it seems.

I wonder how many of those people in mourning actually voted, rather than posted about voting.

 

[SexyFish]

Kurt Eichenwald Verified account
‏@kurteichenwald
Here is one reality from someone who knows Trump: He wants to BE president. He won't want the job of president. Pence will handle a lot.

Welp.

 

[Angry Fork]

Just watched the vid of Podesta telling Clinton's supporters to go home. Clinton not having the decency/guts to address them herself is pretty fucking slimey. They were there for her and supported her with their time and money. Imagine how they felt.

Some people on twitter said they didn't have a concession speech written up which doesn't surprise me.

 

[Ty4on]

Blaming Comey is a convenient way to deny an earthquake. He had no impact on this. He didn't make white women vote for Drumpf, he didn't make parts of the Obama coalition stay home, he didn't convince more Hispanics to vote for Drumpf than had voted for Romney.

It's over. A lot of people were very wrong, from myself to here to Brooklyn to DC. I'm stunned by the electorate. Not even the white turnout, which might end up being 1-2% better than Romney. The base didn't come out where it needed to come out. There was no firewall. Now a decade of progress is exterminated. And another generation gets to learn that no, both sides aren't the same.

It had no effect?

The Trump voters that pushed it over the edge did not have a favorable view of Trump. They voted against Clinton.

 

[thefro]

CNN had some exit polls saying 68% of the people made up their mind before September. If that # is 75% true then no October suprise or debate performance would have ultimately matterd in the end.

Look at the numbers... if Clinton takes 0.5% from Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, PA, she wins. 0.75% would have flipped Florida.

 

[Sanjuro]

I feel bad for the LGBT community across the country today.

I feel bad for a lot of people today actually.

I wouldn't go that far...yet. I feel like there are several states where there will be some general shenanigans. I don't believe there will be a mass change. Plenty of time to be wrong though!

 

[sphagnum]

Which states did the AA vote matter in? Let's be absolutely blunt here: neither Clinton nor Sanders was going to do as well as Obama in the black vote. Sanders might have done moderately worse, but let's look at the critical states needed to win: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. How important is the black vote in any of these states, Pennsylvania perhaps aside? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote - a vote Sanders has connected with really well, time and time again? Alternatively, let's look at the states Clinton only just won: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada. How important is the black vote in these states? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote?

If you're Obama, it's a workable coalition. If you're not, you need to look for a different coalition. In this one, it was the rural working class. Who appeals to them better - Sanders or Clinton?

And it is really important to learn from this, or 2020 will be another loss.

A+ post.

 

[Black Mamba]

Those voters turned up in 2008 and voted Obama. In 2012, they stayed at home. In 2016, the voted Trump. That tells you something about the Democratic party over the last 8 years.

EDIT: Like, from back of the paper workings out there were more white, working class voters in 2008 than 2016. This isn't some unprecedented surge. A lot of these are people who used to be Democrats, especially in the Rust Belt.

Did they show up in 2008? I'm looking at 2008 data and some did, but not nearly as many.

In PA, at least, it looks like Trump got about what McCain got accounting for 8 years of population growth in red counties. But Hillary waaaaay down.

It seems some type of voter stayed home, here. white working class? White upper class? I don't know.

But in some of the softer blue, looks like white working class voters switched.

So it seems to only tell part of the story?

 

[soundscream]

Which states did the AA vote matter in? Let's be absolutely blunt here: neither Clinton nor Sanders was going to do as well as Obama in the black vote. Sanders might have done moderately worse, but let's look at the critical states needed to win: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. How important is the black vote in any of these states, Pennsylvania perhaps aside? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote - a vote Sanders has connected with really well, time and time again? Alternatively, let's look at the states Clinton only just won: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Nevada. How important is the black vote in these states? Comparatively, how important is the rural vote?

If you're Obama, it's a workable coalition. If you're not, you need to look for a different coalition. In this one, it was the rural working class. Who appeals to them better - Sanders or Clinton?

And it is really important to learn from this, or 2020 will be another loss.

The Clinton campain specifically said that the votes in Detroit were nowhere near what they were expecting. The same reason they gave that they lost MI to Bernie. The fact that they didnt put that as a huge priority for their get out the vote effort was a massive blunder.

 

[The Technomancer]

So... we want someone who is super authentic at lying to everyone.

This is the crisis in which the Democratic party now finds itself. This is the actual crisis. Not "how do you win", but "how do you win without running a more unethical campaign than Trump"

 

[RustyNails]

I cant even bring myself to watch the news or read the headlines. I'm still traumatized by last night.

What
The
Fuck
Happened
Poligaf

 

[ryutaro's mama]

When it's 110k votes total, you can blame all sorts of thing. A point swing would have made Clinton the winner.

Yep.

I can see a week of ComeyGate, unchallenged in news stories, riling up at least 110k people to vote that may have been depressed out of voting without it.

She was looking really good coming out of debate 3 and then shit cratered after the letter.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Populism. If they're racist enough to turn out to vote for Trump then they were racist enough to turn out to vote against Obama. Most of these people were probably just disaffected and didn't believe in either party and Trump's populism touched a cord. You guys focus on the racist aspects of the Trump campaign because it's what you find most abhorrent, but none of that probably even registered with these people because all they heard was "jobs with colorful language attached" and turned out for that message.

No, we are saying that Trump's racism/bigotry specifically appealed to many of these people. Republicans who ran against Obama didn't very explicitly do these appeals. Trump told them that shit's changing and he will stop those changes. Trump told them that Black Lives don't matter. Trump told them that immigrants were rapists and criminals. Trump told them that Muslims will be banned. Trump told them that immigrants (including Muslims) are to blame for what is happening to America.

Neither Romney or McCain did that.

I mean, it'll allow them to more easily bully people they imagine they're superior to. Sometimes that all you need.

Yup, this.

 

[Wilsongt]

I cant even bring myself to watch the news or read the headlines. I'm still traumatized by last night.

What
The
Fuck
Happened
Poligaf

Depressed dem turn out, energized low education, poorer, blue collar white voters.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

CNN had some exit polls saying 68% of the people made up their mind before September. If that # is 75% true then no October suprise or debate performance would have ultimately matterd in the end.

This is why is shocking so many people. Bernie was right people wanted change no matter what they wanted to rock the establishment. What did we do? We ran one of the longest running career politicians in forever.


We called the wrong play guys

 

[tmarg]

Meanwhile, yes, it must fucking suck to be Hillary Clinton. I'm aware a lot of people don't like her. But you're a smart, studious woman born into a poor family who has worked hard her entire life, who had taken repeated losses, and endured endless public humiliation, and bullshit "scandals", who has had an entire industry trying to bring you down. And kept on going, to try and reach this moment and become the first woman President. You've been working towards this for 30 years and it's nearly in your reach.

But being smart, hard working, etc, has never guaranteed anyone the presidency. It really felt at times that Democrats felt as though Hillary was somehow owed the presidency, from the way that the entire party lined up behind her long before the primary even started, to the DNC leaks that showed that they were putting their thumbs on the scales a bit.

And despite all that, she consistently underperformed. She should have destroyed Bernie, he was a completely non-viable candidate who only ever really talked about one issue. The entire campaign felt like Democrats were trying to force children to eat their vegetables.

 

[Dierce]

I cant even bring myself to watch the news or read the headlines. I'm still traumatized by last night.

What
The
Fuck
Happened
Poligaf

Same here I will try to avoid the news for at least a few weeks. Then again around the week of January 20 next year.

 

[Crocodile]

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc.

And this is the kind of elitist attitude that costs democrats elections.

*We need to better appeal to the WWC*
*Ok, how?*
*Stop being elitist!*

Plinko, you need to lay down some actual ideas man. You can't just say "do this!" if you won't offer any suggestions onto how to do it

 

[RustyNails]

Yep.

I can see a week of ComeyGate, unchallenged in news stories, riling up at least 110k people to vote that may have been depressed out of voting without it.

She was looking really good coming out of debate 3 and then shit cratered after the letter.

Comey letter doesnt explain wisconsin. We have bigger problems and we dont know where to even begin addressing them.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Donald Trump was, on paper, the worst candidate imaginable, yet rural white turnout was WAY up, and overall votes are down almost eight million compared to 2012.

You can say that this was driven by backlash towards Obama, but Trump, right now, looks like he got fewer total votes than Romney did, while Hillary failed to get about five million people to the polls that Obama DID get to the polls where it counted. You can go county by county and point toward specific places where turnout was up, but the giant lump number that results from all those breakdowns doesn't lie. You can foolishly blame third parties, like you did in 2000, despite them being on the ballot every year and baked into the vote totals to at least some extent, but those same candidates were on the ballot in 2012, as well, and they weren't enough to knock down Barack Obama.

Clinton was just a bad candidate, straight up, and there's no way to whitewash or get away from that. It does not matter how much she knows about policy, how much she's representative of this or that woman's experience of working in corporate America, how happy you were that she was #woke or whatever the phrase is. The ultimate mark of a good candidate is their ability to enthuse people enough to get out and vote, and she did not do that to enough of an extent to overcome the enthusiasm Trump instilled in a subset of the American electorate. Everything said about a massive enthusiasm gap, and a general lack of enthusiasm for Clinton amongst liberal-leaning voters, was right. Everything said about shy Trump voters not registering on polls was right. You can either acknowledge that she sucked, and try and find nominees for the future that won't have her same pitfalls, or you can do what Dems did between 2000 and 2004, blame the wrong factors, nominate some smart elitist policy wonk with the same problems in 2020, and be stuck with Trump for four more years after that.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Feeling really disappointed in the country right now. I don't know where the democratic party can go moving forward.

 

[Pixieking]

This is why is shocking so many people. Bernie was right people wanted change non matter what they wanted to rock the establishment. What did we do? We ran one of the longest running career politicians in forever.


We called the wrong play guys

An extra 10m White Working Class voters backed a racist misogynistic piece of garbage, who has sexually assaulted women.

That's not a change vote. That's a "Fuck those uppity bitches, I'd grope them too" vote. Because the type of person who can ignore that about Trump, was the type of person Bernie was sure as shit not going to get.

 

[SexyFish]

Note to others: Don't order a Hillary Clinton shirt and get it delivered the day after the election.

Probably going to break down opening the package, if I even can.

 

[DrForester]

The GOP already detailed a replacement plan in June. HSAs, buying insurance across state lines, etc.

Well, now that we're stuck with him, is this a bad thing? I've never really looked into it.

 

[Black Mamba]

I think the whole point is that there was a shift in the electorate - a lot of Republicans who didn't like Trump stayed undecided until the final week or two when they decided that as bad as he was, Trump was at least better than Clinton. Probably because Clinton had spent a reasonable amount of campaign time insulting them.

And I felt she went out of her way to not demonize them. The entire DNC was about how GOPers could come to her.

But that "deplorable" comment looks really bad in retrospect. Maybe it lit a fire under these non-voters.

I just can't imagine what you say as being a shift. If anything, it just shows they'll always vote Republican. They just need to go to the polls.

 

[CreepingFear]

Remember when people said "Brexit was different. Won't happen here" or "the primaries are different than the general election"? I remember...

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Did they show up in 2008? I'm looking at 2008 data and some did, but not nearly as many.

In PA, at least, it looks like Trump got about what McCain got accounting for 8 years of population growth in red counties. But Hillary waaaaay down.

It seems some type of voter stayed home, here. white working class? White upper class? I don't know.

But in some of the softer blue, looks like white working class voters switched.

So it seems to only tell part of the story?

Yeah. Looking at 2008's exit polls for comparison, what changed isn't how many white voters without college degrees voted, it is who they voted for. In 2008, 40% of them voted Obama. In 2016, 28% of them voted Clinton. So the Democrats lost 12% from a demographic that is ~40% of the electorate.

 

[Kusagari]

Here's the simple fact we've seen from the last couple elections.

You're not winning without charisma period. And Hillary is one of the least charismatic nominees ever.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is why is shocking so many people. Bernie was right people wanted change non matter what they wanted to rock the establishment. What did we do? We ran one of the longest running career politicians in forever.


We called the wrong play guys

We assumed people wanted a president who was qualified and ready to lead. That a tried and true record was worth more than big speeches

We were spoiled with Obama. We thought he was elected for his policy and experience, not that he's just really good at speeches

Ultimately, we may need to run a weaker, inexperienced Democrat. But one who is really good at connecting to people and hyping people.

We should pay attention to freshman senators in 2014, 2016, and 2018. There might be a winner there.

I just hope they make it through the primaries

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Gotta read:

There are more white voters than people think:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/u...n-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

And:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/upshot/why-trump-won-working-class-whites.html

How democrats can fix it? I don't know.

Start by not having some dumbfuck as DNC chair and having someone who can build an organization in each state.

 

[Pixieking]

Ashley Killough ‏@KilloughCNN Jan 14

As Al Jazeera America tried asking Trump a Q tonight, he said, "you guys are out of business!" and moved on.

...

 

[chefbags]

Same here I will try to avoid the news for at least a few weeks. Then again around the week of January 20 next year.

Doing the same. Except it'll be for the next 4 years.

 

[RustyNails]

Depressed dem turn out, energized low education, poorer, blue collar white voters.

I disagree. This is a global problem. Nationalism has reared its head and nationalist strongmen-lite leaders are coming into power in democratic countries.

Brexit
Duterte
Modi (to an extent)
Trump

 

[Already Torn]

Here's the simple fact we've seen from the last couple elections.

You're not winning without charisma period. And Hillary is one of the least charismatic nominees ever.

Yup. Wonder if we'll see a trend of puppet presidents like Trump from here on?

 

[shiftplusone]

the GOP candidate for Denton County Sheriff won last night

Tracy Murphree

"All I can say is this: If my little girl is in a public women’s restroom and a man, regardless of how he may identify, goes into the bathroom, he will then identify as a John Doe until he wakes up in whatever hospital he may be taken to. "

the orwell quote keeps circling in my head

"if public opinion is sluggish, inconvenient minorities will be persecuted, even if laws exist to protect them.”

everyone says local elections matter a lot more.

The idea that this thought process even happens, is fucking gross and scary. The idea that this shit is REWARDED fills me with sadness and I get fucking knots in my stomach

 

[Ohwiseone]

I'm just now posting this.

All I have to say is WTF?!

But, I can't change it now, so we start over. Today is day 1, and in 4 years we will do everything we can to change this.

I am just so worried for the future of this country.

Those of us who wanted us to be an isolationist nation.. they are going to get it.

No more Healthcare.
No more Marriage for LGBTQ
So much regression.
So many more things that I can't even fathom right now.

I sure hope we don't end up in a War or anything 2 years down the line.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Well, now that we're stuck with him, is this a bad thing? I've never really looked into it.

It means states will have a hard time regulating their own healthcare. It hurts blue states that want to implement their own regulations

 

[tmarg]

Remember when people said "Brexit was different. Won't happen here" or "the primaries are different than the general election"? I remember...

They were different. Polls showed brexit passing, the lesson from brexit was trust the polls.

Polls showed Clinton winning easily. I have no idea what the fuck the lesson from this is.

 

[DrMungo]

I disagree. This is a global problem. Nationalism has reared its head and nationalist strongmen-lite leaders are coming into power in democratic countries.

Brexit
Duterte
Modi (to an extent)
Trump

I'll even add Xi in China who has become way hardline, and to some extent Abe in Japan.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Comey letter doesnt explain wisconsin. We have bigger problems and we dont know where to even begin addressing them.

The margins in WI weren't insurmountable. It was enough in the traditionally quiet areas that pushed him over the edge, just like FL and MI and PA.

There was a dormant White rural block that was highly motivated to vote for their candidate this cycle rather than just opt out of voting for less interesting candidates like Romney and/or McCain.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Trump should send the cable networks a nice Christmas card for the millions in free advertising they gave him.

Thanks to them Trump didn't even need a ground game.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm just now posting this.

All I have to say is WTF?!

But, I can't change it now, so we start over. Today is day 1, and in 4 years we will do everything we can to change this.

I am just so worried for the future of this country.

Those of us who wanted us to be an isolationist nation.. they are going to get it.

No more Healthcare.
No more Marriage for LGBTQ
So much regression.
So many more things that I can't even fathom right now.

I sure hope we don't end up in a War or anything 2 years down the line.

You know actually I wish Rubio won today if a GOP president were to win. I'm that despondent.

 

[kirblar]

It means states will have a hard time regulating their own healthcare. It hurts blue states that want to implement their own regulations

This is a net positive in terms of getting to a system where health insurance is like car insurance.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I disagree. This is a global problem. Nationalism has reared its head and nationalist strongmen-lite leaders are coming into power in democratic countries.

Brexit
Duterte
Modi (to an extent)
Trump

It's scary to me, because these are the warning signs of something about to go down on a global scale

These are the ripples forming that caused the World Wars

 

[Hydrophobic]

...

Real question, I thought Al Jazeera America actually did go out of business already. Like, a year ago?

 

[Effect]

I was considering avoiding work also due in part to a lack of sleep, but decided against it. I figured getting out of the house and solving problems at work would be better for my frame of mind. But I am going to try to avoid the news for awhile.

I might just go in for a bit to keep my mind busy. Being home isn't helping even with not watching the news.Might only peak in here once in a while to keep up. *Sigh*

 

[Totakeke]

Another possibility for the next four years is to hope that Democrats can turn a few Republicans to their side. At this point, can people like McCain seriously think he should do whatever Trump says to save their careers? I cannot believe that all of them don't see the damage that Trump can do unchecked. This will a test of how much Republicans simply fall in line with their party that Trump has just remade in this image.

Yeah I know it's tempting to be all fatalist right now, but I hope some decency is left.

 

[Wilsongt]

I am feeling legit, full on depressed this morning. Can't concentrate, slow movement, no appetite, no joy, paralyzing depression.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

It's scary to me, because these are the warning signs of something about to go down on a global scale

These are the ripples forming that caused the World Wars

Oh don't worry Trump is against wars unless we win.

/sigh

 

[Already Torn]

They were different. Polls showed brexit passing, the lesson from brexit was trust the polls.

Polls showed Clinton winning easily. I have no idea what the fuck the lesson from this is.

Read the OP title.