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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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But it's even less than 2012 and there was an increase in actual voter registration. Just means less people actually care to vote?

What are the chances the Republican senate don't nuke the filibuster?

Is that the only saving grace if they keep it? The supreme court is fucked though right?

So how easy is it to overturn gay marriage and roe v wade? Like how easy? And if gay marriage is overturn even liberal states will have to ban it?

My uncle is gay and lives in Boston so I know that is liberal state but can stuff change?

I live in Canada but really follow US politics but don't know the above.

Thanks.


If Obergefell v. Hodges gets overturned it will fall back to state by state unless they pass some sort of constitutional ammendment banning it.

Roe v Wade I believe is hanging by a thread.
 

greatgeek

Banned
My hope is that Trump and his toadies frustrate Obama and Sanders voters enough that they crystalize into a genuine voting block. Forma would be a plausible candidate for this coalition.
 

Pixieking

Banned
I agree. We need the charismatic, fresh-faced presidential nominee and the brutal enforcer behind the scenes.

Yup. Now, how do you all make it happen (assuming he's agreeable)?

Edit: How does Executive Power work? Can Obama do some crazy things in the lame duck session?
 
I submitted an absentee ballot for Clinton in OH a few weeks ago. It's incredibly disappointing to see that this is how the election turned out. I'm a little shaken, though strangely I feel a little calmer than I did leading up to last night. Maybe it's just because this whole thing is over, and I don't need to agonize over something that's already happened.

So what's next? Well, Democrats will need to reevaluate their messaging going forward. Clearly a significant segment of the population felt they were being ignored or left behind, so rather than argue over whether they're correct or not to feel that way, they need to find a way to reconnect to them.

Republicans are going to own the branches for at least two years. That means that almost anything that happens, good or bad, is going to fall on them. We'll need to remain vigilant and point out whenever they've done something stupid. Even it means repeating it ad nauseam because, like it or not, that kind of stuff does stick with you.

Anyway, what else can be said? Try to keep your spirits up, because nothing is forever. American history, really the history of any country, is a long line of ups and downs and setbacks, and giving up because you don't succeed only insures you'll fail in the long run.

If the people who voted for Obama were just as likely to vote for Trump, then it means even his support isn't necessarily permanent, and can be just as fickle. He's been going on about making America "great again" for a year, so now it's time to see if he can put his money where his mouth is.
 
Hillary probably would have won if she picked Al Franken over Tim Kaine, but she really, truly thought that some Republicans were decent people who wouldn't turn over the nuclear arsenal to a man who screams "CHECK OUT SEX TAPE!" at 3:00 AM and so she picked Kaine over Franken to make her campaign as serious as possible.

She got 6% of the Republican vote.

There can never be reconciliation. 94% of Republicans are extremely stupid people that don't understand risk assessment.
 

pigeon

Banned
"You don't let Donald trump win"

Stop talking about him. Make people excited about YOUR candidate. Stop blaming other people. Start owning up; Hillary was a GOD awful candidate. She did not connect with the people as much as Bernie did (for example).

Like I said, it's helpful this morning to be able to easily identify the people who really had nothing on the line if a white nationalist became President of the United States.
 
I don't think he gives a fuck but Reid should take over the DNC. He understands organizing and understands getting dirty. He treats politics as intensely personal and bitter. Fuck Donna Brazile.

Dems in general need to understand going dirty. "They go low, we go High"? Fuck that noise. It's obvious taking the higher road doesn't win anyone jackshit. IF the DNC is too afraid to step on eggshells, then they can get fucked and I can go find another party that will represent me and fights dirty.

If it means suppressing the rural white vote, then do it. Fuck. The DNC is a fucking mess. The DNC is a failure. Looking back, electing a fucking loser who lost 2008 to be their candidate was a failure. Republicans had what, 3 serious candidates? Rubio, Cruz, Trump? We only had Clinton and Sanders. Maybe Sanders would've been better, millennials loved him. We'll never know.

This election is a failure of alot of things. It's a failure of the media for constantly giving Trump news time. It's a failure of the DNC for going high. It's a failure of propping Trump up as a demagogue.

I feel the media is a major party to blame. For constantly giving Trump airtime. Fuckers love their ratings, and their ratings fucked us over. Maybe it was the media constantly airing Trumps remarks that made people stand up and vote for him. I don't know. I want the DNC on a damn cross.
 
I don't think he gives a fuck but Reid should take over the DNC. He understands organizing and understands getting dirty. He treats politics as intensely personal and bitter. Fuck Donna Brazile.

.

But they can't back the red state white collar workers into a corner either (who were part of triggering this change). Even swaying some of them is crucial for the next election.
 
This is the mentality that lost the vote IMO. This exact attitude.

Jesus Christ.

It was not this mentality that cost Clinton rural America.

Saying "You should have listened to me if you wanted to stop Donald Trump!" today, if you didn't vote for the only person with a path to stopping him, does no fucking good. Give me one good reason to listen to you.

I'll listen to the case from those who voted for the person who had the best chance of stopping President Elect Trump.

Refusing to let a primary candidate go, helps us how? Bernie isn't running in the next primary I don't expect.

If Bernie connected more with 'the people' why did he get less votes?

Clinton connected more with 'the people' than Trump. That's not why we lost.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Someone in OT said he should just go all in and repeal NAFTA and have astronomical import tariffs. That just made me sad because I don't want to know how many people think this is a good idea for American jobs. It would result in companies that relied on foreign companies (whether they had an American choice or not) getting screwed, which is passed down to the employees. To say nothing of what other countries would do in response.

American manufacturing output is at an all time high, who are we going to sell those goods to when we become isolationist? How are they going to compete against the strong dollar and local tariffs?
 
The fact that Brazile is still the head after implying she gave the Clinton campaign a debate question early is astounding

She needs to go to wash out the image of us being elite insiders

Reid needs to take over because he's proven he can get shit done
 

Crocodile

Member
I mentioned it earlier this morning elsewhere, but people forget that women got the right to vote 52 years after the black man did.

So which one of you is up for waiting 50 years to get a female president?

We couldn't really exercise that right (thx Jim Crow & shit) but you have a point nonetheless

Good for New Hampshire and Nevada. They did work.

Reid da gawd

Ralston's reporting was very good in Nevada

Ralston coming out of this smelling like roses. Schale has egg on his face.

The DNC's job is to make sure the Democrats win elections. All the data during the primary pointed towards Clinton having serious weaknesses in the general election. Head to head polling showed Clinton barely being Trump in nationwide polls. Bernie was consistently polling 7-15% over Trump in GE match ups. And the head to head match up during the primaries ended up being the case. Clinton was statistically tied with Trump.

It is absolutely insane that the DNC let Clinton run with the FBI investigation. And you can say that the FBI investigation was much ado about nothing, and it was. Can you imagine if Bernie tried to run while actively being investigated by the FBI for any reason? The cries for him to get out of the race would be deafening. And guess what? The Comey's nothing announcement was possibly the last deathblow to her campaign.

Anyone who was paying attention to what was going on in the electorate saw the writing on the wall as far back as January that Clinton was in serious danger of losing to Trump.

The issue here is that basically nobody touched Bernie during the primary or has touched him since. It's hard to gauge how his favorability ratings would change after having the GOP hammer away at him. We can't possibly know.
 

Totakeke

Member
"You don't let Donald trump win"

Stop talking about him. Make people excited about YOUR candidate. Stop blaming other people. Start owning up; Hillary was a GOD awful candidate. She did not connect with the people as much as Bernie did (for example).

If what you say is true then nobody but Hillary is at fault here, she was awful.

Ask yourself, how shitty of a candidate do you have to be to lose against Trump?

Exactly, connect to the people. What people did Trump connect to and how did he do it?

Why should we not just dispel any notion that policies and rationalism matter and just do what he did? This is no longer a question of winning at all costs, it's what we have to lose in return to do it. There's many more issues than just the candidate alone.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Hillary probably would have won if she picked Al Franken over Tim Kaine, but she really, truly thought that some Republicans were decent people who wouldn't turn over the nuclear arsenal to a man who screams "CHECK OUT SEX TAPE!" at 3:00 AM and so she picked Kaine over Franken to make her campaign as serious as possible.

She got 6% of the Republican vote.

There can never be reconciliation. 94% of Republicans are extremely stupid people that don't understand risk assessment.

Al Franken as VP wasn't winning this election.

Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders as president was winning this election.
 
I can't even imagine what Hillary is feeling. If I spent my whole life working towards something, had the whole world believing I was going to achieve it and then had it snatched away at the last moment by a disgusting clown, I'm not sure I'd ever get over it.
 
Exactly, connect to the people. What people did Trump connect to and how did he do it?

Why should we not just dispel any notion that policies and rationalism matter and just do what he did? This is no longer a question of winning at all costs, it's what we have to lose in return to do it. There's many more issues than just the candidate alone.

It's a very hard question to mull over. No question.
 
Al Franken as VP wasn't winning this election.

Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders as president was winning this election.

You know what bothers me?

I'm imagining how many elite Democrats said 'Now it's her turn to be president.'. I wonder if Obama was thinking 'And after I'm done, it's HIllarys turn to run'.

Maybe it is an elite thing. Maybe people got sick of that.
 
The fact that Brazile is still the head after implying she gave the Clinton campaign a debate question early is astounding

She needs to go to wash out the image of us being elite insiders

Reid needs to take over because he's proven he can get shit done

She was gone after the election regardless
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
1. Blaming Hillary for this loss is crazy. Republicans would have destroyed Bernie's reputation as well. I think he would have higher chance to win but nothing would be guaranteed.
2. Ignorance of average human being on this planet keeps surprising me. How did we get here? How did the same society which invented TV and Internet can be so stupid?
3. Fuck it! Let's see what happens over the next few years. I can't imagine Republicans doing that much damage. The biggest loss is of course Supreme Court...

Hillary had an INSANE amount of baggage. Come on. Don't compare her to Bernie in that area.

And, again, I was not a Bernie fan. I do know, though, that he would have been a MUCH better GE candidate.
 
I don't think he gives a fuck but Reid should take over the DNC. He understands organizing and understands getting dirty. He treats politics as intensely personal and bitter. Fuck Donna Brazile.

Reid would be a good pick, though I don't know if his style would work outside of Nevada. After him, Obama would be a solid option. Tie the coalition to the party more permanently, and he's got experience as an organizer. The holdup for me there is that he did an awful job of bolstering the downticket as President, but maybe that was just a question of focus.

It was not this mentality that cost Clinton rural America.

Saying "You should have listened to me if you wanted to stop Donald Trump!" today, if you didn't vote for the only person with a path to stopping him, does no fucking good. Give me one good reason to listen to you.

I'll listen to the case from those who voted for the person who had the best chance of stopping President Elect Trump.

Refusing to let a primary candidate go, helps us how? Bernie isn't running in the next primary I don't expect.

If Bernie connected more with 'the people' why did he get less votes?

Clinton connected more with 'the people' than Trump. That's not why we lost.

I don't think that Bernie's actions during the primary were the deciding factor, but poisoning his base against the political process and the Democratic party in general probably didn't help, yeah?
 

studyguy

Member
Maybe people should have turned out is the long and short of it.
I'm not about to sit around and assume the turnout would have been spectacular under anyone else when the GOTV was so extensive.

Dem turnout was down and it's done.
Sanders didn't get the turnout numbers Clinton did during the primaries, there's no reason to assume he would have gotten more in the general while being assailed by RNC.
A different VP would have likely done squat as well.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You know what bothers me?

I'm imagining how many elite Democrats said 'Now it's her turn to be president.'. I wonder if Obama was thinking 'And after I'm done, it's HIllarys turn to run'.

Maybe it is an elite thing. Maybe people got sick of that.

This is what I meant when I said the primaries were "rigged." Not actual vote-rigging. Just that the whole thing was set up because they believed she deserved it.
 
I read a bit about Cuban

Seems like there's potential there? I'd like to see him pivot more on LGBT stuff, but his current stances certainly aren't anything near Trump's. In general, if he were to run, I would not be surprised if he actively presented himself as an anti-Trump in every respect while still trying to have a broad appeal to white and non-white voters alike.

He's on trial for fraud in two weeks. TBH though I wonder if chucking the president-elect is just really destabilizing at a really bad time. But then if he's found responsible for running a scam university... whaddya do.

Couldn't they vote to have Trump impeached, but not vote to have him removed? I don't quite understand the process.
 
Exactly, connect to the people. What people did Trump connect to and how did he do it?


Why should we not just dispel any notion that policies and rationalism matter and just do what he did? This is no longer a question of winning at all costs, it's what we have to lose in return to do it. There's many more issues than just the candidate alone.

Lie repeatedly and unendingly to people ready to be fooled.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I read a bit about Cuban

Seems like there's potential there? I'd like to see him pivot more on LGBT stuff, but his current stances certainly aren't anything near Trump's. In general, if he were to run, I would not be surprised if he actively presented himself as an anti-Trump in every respect.



Couldn't they vote to have Trump impeached, but not vote to have him removed? I don't quite understand the process.

We're a long way out, but the democrats have to look outside the party right now, and Cuban may be the best guy for the job. Smart businessman, made billions, successful, provided jobs, not a lifelong politician, and relateable to the masses.
 
This is what I meant when I said the primaries were "rigged." Not actual vote-rigging. Just that the whole thing was set up because they believed she deserved it.

Alot of people thought she deserved it, myself included. Oh she's been 30 years in poliitics, oh she has a history being a politician, this and that. She deserves it.

Nah, she's a fucking loser and should have been left in the dumps after 08. She lost against Obama. She should've stayed lost.
 

pigeon

Banned
I don't disagree that if people in swing states didn't vote Clinton that they're not allies. But I just would really need to see the receipts to believe they voted Trump.

In terms of organizing we need to do better. For intersectionality, we need to do better, and it's baffling that a movement that has historically been strong with PoC worldwide has an element that will only accept class analysis. But I think, and you know I'll always think, that we need to adopt a more populist, more vicious style to win.

It isn't that baffling to me that many white male American socialists don't believe that the needs of women and people of color aren't important compared to the problems they care about.

I don't disagree with a more populist or aggressive approach. I'm just not sure how it works any more. Like I said, I am not sure people of color can, or should, ever make common cause with the white working class. We tried it for the last hundred years and Donald Trump was the result.

They never believed in civil rights. They never believed in the right of people of color, women, LGBT to control their own bodies and futures. They saw the temporary possibility of personal gain from supporting these issues, and now they don't.

I think the lesson is pretty clear.
 

Paches

Member
Obama is going to be forced to hand the keys over to Trump and work with the man that thinks he is a foreign menace. What a fucking shameful display in America.
 
At a certain point, all discussion of Hillary in relation to Trump will need to stop. That includes Trump supporters and surrogates shitting on her as a way to deflect from Trump's faults. That includes "Bernie would have won." Hillary is done in politics. Might as well talk about Romney, McCain, Kerry's candidacy. Same relevancy.
 

Dr. Worm

Banned
If Bernie connected more with 'the people' why did he get less votes?

Clinton connected more with 'the people' than Trump. That's not why we lost.

In the same way that the Republican primary electorate is not quite the same as the American electorate, the Democratic primary electorate is by no means the same as the American electorate.
 

Ecotic

Member
Steve Schale on the other hand... Did he just not look at the rural counties?

Just as I feared, Steve and other people looking at the early voting numbers were suffering from confirmation bias. They looked only at the biggest areas and the areas they wanted to see.
 

sphagnum

Banned
It isn't that baffling to me that many white male American socialists don't believe that the needs of women and people of color aren't important compared to the problems they care about.

I don't disagree with a more populist or aggressive approach. I'm just not sure how it works any more. Like I said, I am not sure people of color can, or should, ever make common cause with the white working class. We tried it for the last hundred years and Donald Trump was the result.

They never believed in civil rights. They never believed in the right of people of color, women, LGBT to control their own bodies and futures. They saw the temporary possibility of personal gain from supporting these issues, and now they don't.

I think the lesson is pretty clear.

Until the demographic shift that guarantees FL, AZ, etc though how do we win without the Rust Belt?
 
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