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[RustyNails]

I love Hillary but I'm slowly believing that Sanders could have beaten Trump.

The black, Hispanic, Asian and other non-white vote would have stayed solidly with Bernie just as well as it did with Hillary. He could have brought millenials firmly back in his column. I voted for Hillary in the primary because of her pragmatism. But I always felt that her emails were overblown. The drip drip of email leaks, DNC upheavel and all other illusions of corruptions worked in Trump's favor. It really depressed her turnout.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Wouldn't Obergefell getting overturned rely on RBG dying or Kennedy stepping down? Same with Roe.

Yes but RBG will probably not last 4 years...

The Kennedy "I care about other people today" firewall is going to die.

 

[Veritigo_X]

This is a good thread regarding Trump's "secret voters" https://twitter.com/SiyandaWrites/status/796286719058382848

 

[SenorArdilla]

I'm not.

The reason for that is he doesn't have the pull with minorities and women that Hillary did. Hillary's pull with minorities is not as strong as Obama's, but it was nothing to scoff at, especially since that's why he lost in the primary.

Minorities and women would have voted for him regardless due to the Democrat label. At the very least his rage against the 1% would have given white males something to cling onto.

The DNC should have realized something was up when Bernie was beating Hillary in the swing states.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

You cannot say that with 100% certainty and that is fucking terrifying.

We can never say anything for certain

 

[Sanjuro]

I love Hillary but I'm slowly believing that Sanders could have beaten Trump.

The black, Hispanic, Asian and other non-white vote would have stayed solidly with Bernie just as well as it did with Hillary. He could have brought millenials firmly back in his column. I voted for Hillary in the primary because of her pragmatism. But I always felt that her emails were overblown. The drip drip of email leaks, DNC upheavel and all other illusions of corruptions worked in Trump's favor. It really depressed her turnout.

There are certainly intangibles, not different from Trump coming into power which may have altered this. But overall? No.

 

[plagiarize]

The public hates Hillary Clinton. I'm not sure what lesson there is to be learned from that because there is no one else who has been under the GOP attack machine for decades.

Right. She was a historic candidate in part because she was good enough to be relevant all this time despite being under fire for decades. There's no one else out there that could have made it to the finish line with that much baggage, and STILL won the popular vote. Just unbelievable. Unfortunately the e-mail thing was the final straw that slowed her down enough that she came up short in the EV.

So don't worry people, we won't pick someone just like Clinton in 2020. No one will be around long enough. Either the GOP will have enough time to bury them in baggage or they won't.

But there'll never be another Hillary Clinton who was able to fight the full GOP attack machine for as long as she did.

 

[Suikoguy]

I love Hillary but I'm slowly believing that Sanders could have beaten Trump.

The black, Hispanic, Asian and other non-white vote would have stayed solidly with Bernie just as well as it did with Hillary. He could have brought millenials firmly back in his column. I voted for Hillary in the primary because of her pragmatism. But I always felt that her emails were overblown. The drip drip of email leaks, DNC upheavel and all other illusions of corruptions worked in Trump's favor. It really depressed her turnout.

Minority turnout would be down even more.
So the question is, would that reduced turnout be outdone by increased white voters?

 

[BreezyLimbo]

I'm tired of you all blaming Hillary. She didn't fail us we failed her, and as a country we have to live with that failure for 8 years. Hell, the rest of our lives because the damage will last that long. We had one shot and we failed, not Hillary. I'm out, see ya'll in 2018 for the midterms and maybe by then you'll see who is to blame for this shit.

You don't set out a poisoned well for people to drink from, and then say 'well the reason we're dying from thirst is because we won't drink from it, it's our fault.'

Yes, I wish Dems got in line, but really they didn't. They never will. So the DNC has to fucking take that into account. That Dems are snowflakes who need to be catered to in order to win anything.

 

[excelsiorlef]

Truth.

Brutal and true

 

[mjp2417]

DNC cleared the field for a historically hated candidate who still almost lost the primary.

Gotta be better.

Democrats historically struggle with turnout. Obama is the exception not the rule and there was no Obama on the slate this year. She also won the primary convincingly.

 

[B-Dubs]

I love Hillary but I'm slowly believing that Sanders could have beaten Trump.

The black, Hispanic, Asian and other non-white vote would have stayed solidly with Bernie just as well as it did with Hillary. He could have brought millenials firmly back in his column. I voted for Hillary in the primary because of her pragmatism. But I always felt that her emails were overblown. The drip drip of email leaks, DNC upheavel and all other illusions of corruptions worked in Trump's favor. It really depressed her turnout.

I don't think so. We would have seen cold war redux had he run. Florida would have been worse too because of the Castro thing and the hispanic vote might not have come out in large numbers when they learned of Sierra Blanca. There's a reason the GOP kept trying to prop him up in the primaries.

Short of Biden I don't think there's anyone who could have pulled it off and even then I'm not sure.

EDIT: On that note, I do think he tries in four years.

 

[studyguy]

Sanders didn't turn out minorities in the numbers Clinton did in the primaries, what proof is there that he would have in the generals. None. It's all moot now.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This is a good thread: https://twitter.com/SiyandaWrites/status/796286719058382848

Its good, its not why trump won.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Whoever this local idiot on Utah radio is is pissing me off.

Trump winning is a win for religious freedom and hard work and being honest.

Fuck this shit is this really the narrative

 

[RustyNails]

Minority turnout would be down even more.
So the question is, would that reduced turnout be outdone by increased white voters?

In US politics minority turnout is a smaller percentage than white turnout. Losing 4-5% of black vote while gaining 1-2% of white vote would be a wash.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Its good, its not why trump won.

Indeed.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jason Kander's incredible performance last night is the best argument in favor of the "authenticity" people.

Feingold's bad performance makes the Socialism/jobs argument more questionable.

 

[Boke1879]

Can yall imagine this man giving a SOTU Address? Good God.

 

[RustyNails]

I don't think so. We would have seen cold war redux had he run. Florida would have been worse too because of the Castro thing and the hispanic vote might not have come out in large numbers when they learned of Sierra Blanca. There's a reason the GOP kept trying to prop him up in the primaries.

Short of Biden I don't think there's anyone who could have pulled it off and even then I'm not sure.

The powder on Cuba and Russia is wet. Of course we didn't know Trump had a history with those two countries but those attacks on Bernie would have felt flat.

Edit: just saw your edit. I will vote for Sanders if he runs in 2020 with all my heart.

 

[metalslimer]

Right. She was a historic candidate in part because she was good enough to be relevant all this time despite being under fire for decades. There's no one else out there that could have made it to the finish line with that much baggage, and STILL won the popular vote. Just unbelievable. Unfortunately the e-mail thing was the final straw that slowed her down enough that she came up short in the EV.

So don't worry people, we won't pick someone just like Clinton in 2020. No one will be around long enough. Either the GOP will have enough time to bury them in baggage or they won't.

But there'll never be another Hillary Clinton who was able to fight the full GOP attack machine for as long as she did.

I know she's wealthy and will be ok in the end, but what's devastating to me is that the right has been completely validated after their 2 decade long attack machine.

 

[plagiarize]

Minority turnout would be down even more.
So the question is, would that reduced turnout be outdone by increased white voters?

And the question is unanswerable.

And even if we could answer it, there is no teachable lesson from it other than 'don't choose another candidate like Hillary Clinton'. And there isn't going to be another candidate like Hillary Clinton in 2020.

Unless I'm forgetting someone that has been attacked as much as her in the last few decades, but is still a viable candidate.

 

[B-Dubs]

Jason Kander's incredible performance last night is the best argument in favor of the "authenticity" people.

Feingold's bad performance makes the Socialism/jobs argument more questionable.

I mean, that's the thing: Feingold did everything everyone is saying we should have done and he ran worse than Clinton did.

The powder on Cuba and Russia is wet. Of course we didn't know Trump had a history with those two countries but those attacks on Bernie would have felt flat.

No they wouldn't and you know that. He'd have been branded a communist and that would have been the thing instead of the emails. And it would have stuck because he plays into the attack with his rhetoric.

 

[BreezyLimbo]

I hope Obama was able to activate Trump last night

Liberal conservative go

 

[excelsiorlef]

DNC cleared the field for a historically hated candidate who still almost lost the primary.

Gotta be better.

Now this is some of the most fucking bullshit revisionist history.

She did not almost fucking lose the primary.

The primary was fucking all but over in goddamn Feburary after she routed him in South Carolina.

The primary was never fucking close not for a minute.

You can be upset about how she ran her campaign after that but to say she almost lost the primary is fucking ridiculous.

 

[Dany]

Jason Kander's incredible performance last night is the best argument in favor of the "authenticity" people.

Is he our hope?

 

[thehypocrite]

The argument that Sanders did better in those states makes little sense, since if he lost big in FL, and other states would that same logic not apply?

Is not an argument, is a fact. Every opponent against Hillary ends up outperforming the polls in those key states, that was the firewall, the thought that those states were safe made the idea of a President Trump a rather unlikely result. She was a bad candidate people, the evidence shows that. Those states that Sander lost against Clinton were going to be blue or red regardless. The performance by which candidates should be measured is how they perform on the actual states up for grabs.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Is he our hope?

He has to win another office in Missouri first. Maybe Governor in 2020. But that's a long ways off.

 

[thepotatoman]

Just because Hillary lost doesn't mean Bernie would have won. He would have lost too, just differently. A big part of the 2010 narrative was Republicans rallying their voters to stop the socialist Obama(care). Socialism is just as bad if not worse than emails for Sanders.

How in the world does Trump win despite the millions of easy attacks you can throw at him, while democrats lose because "emails" or "socialism".

I think we need to learn from this election that in today's political era, attacks don't matter, but turnout does. Maybe emails or socialism would turn out republicans, but simply playing the attack and defense game against the republicans does not create turnout for democrats.

This has been proven true in 2016, 2014, and 2010 now. We can no longer ignore turnout. We have to stop pretending the real battleground is over a theoretical swing voter that clearly does not exist in large enough numbers to mean anything.

And no, get out the vote operations and nagging people into voting for the lesser of two evils is not going to create the turnout necessary.

 

[BreezyLimbo]

the fact that hillary lost firewall states

still boggles my mind.

 

[Nafai1123]

Can yall imagine this man giving a SOTU Address? Good God.

It will be completely detached from reality. Our economy could be crashing and I'm pretty sure he would say it's in "tremendous shape."

In 4 years I'm not sure we'll be able to tell what reality even is anymore.

 

[nature boy]

Yikes

Burgess Everett ‏@burgessev 14m14 minutes ago
At RNC, officials call Qs about white supremacists supporting Trump "inside the beltway" questions

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Jason Kander's incredible performance last night is the best argument in favor of the "authenticity" people.

Feingold's bad performance makes the Socialism/jobs argument more questionable.

We're going to need to ease up on guns. It's not a battle we're winning and it's costing Dems.

Kander types may very well be the future.

 

[JP_]

Another opponent outperformed Hillary and the polls in the midwest again.



Source: 538

Look a this not too long ago for Michigan.



Source: 538

What about Wisconsin?



Source: 538

Sanders even outperformed the polls in PA but ultimately lost.

Projection: 39.7% Result:43.6%

Sourcerojection 538 Result: Patch

The trends on these battleground states were always there, fuck!!!
We should have foreseen this shit That was the wall that Hillary was the worst candidate to build. We were unable to talk about these things cause we couldn't get past the smugness that permeated all discourse about trying to make the case for sanders as a more viable candidate for the general.

We need to be more humble and open to others.

Also, Nate Silver is a good statistician.

.

 

[elvisaintdead]

To stay sane: here's a good fact.

Trump supporters and voters are not the silent majority. The popular vote proves that. If anyone touts that, they are factually wrong.

 

[Crocodile]

Aaron Blake ‏@AaronBlake 35m35 minutes ago
Come January, 19 of the 30 youngest senators will be Republicans. Dems will only have 4 of 13 under 50.

Who's the old party again?

Yeah this is a problem, how do we fix this?

This comes off as incredibly rude. The exact same way people reacted when anybody dared say Hillary was a flawed candidate over the past few months.

Look--whether you want to admit it or not, the signs were there. This wasn't 08. The republicans did NOT have somebody they thought deserved the crown in their primaries this time.

I'll continue to talk about this issue if I wish, thanks.

An article posted in here an hour or so ago shows that the whole "racist" thing is a garbage non-starter. Racism is not why she lost.

My point is that there isn't some rigging conspiracy. Yes, the DNC had a preference. That's not wrong - Clinton has been a Democrat and worked within the party for YEARS. The point is that the DNC is not the reason Bernie lost the primary and any statement of the sort is divorced from reality. That is the point I'm trying to drive home.

The RNC lined behind Jeb and kept moving the goal as more candidates got knocked out. Very few of those candidates were serious candidates and if they had their way they would have lowered the numbers. It is weird that it ended up working for them I guess?

So we have to talk about the GOTV operation. It sucked.

Yeah I don't get this here. How are democrats not pumped to vote in this election (be it for Hilary or against Trump)? How much of this is voter suppression?

Yep. But please, people, continue lecturing us on how racists are the ones who cost her the election.

Someone had to vote for Trump tight?

I know she's wealthy and will be ok in the end, but what's devastating to me is that the right has been completely validated after their 2 decade long attack machine.

Getting reworded for lies and obstruction is a sick joke. If the Democrats have to become like them to win the country is headed in a bad direction.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Is he our hope?

Not certain if it's him or not, but it's just a data point in favor of "Hillary lost because of 'authenticity'"

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't think so. We would have seen cold war redux had he run. Florida would have been worse too because of the Castro thing and the hispanic vote might not have come out in large numbers when they learned of Sierra Blanca. There's a reason the GOP kept trying to prop him up in the primaries.

Short of Biden I don't think there's anyone who could have pulled it off and even then I'm not sure.

EDIT: On that note, I do think he tries in four years.

Seriously: which states that Clinton won does Sanders lose? The closest states Clinton won were New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada. Sanders almost edged Clinton in Nevada and easily beat her in New Hampshire and Minnesota. The closest states Clinton lost were Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Sanders won Wisconsin, won Michigan in an incredible upset, and drove Pennsylvania close. These are all despite massive institutional disadvantages against him!

Like, why are you even talking about how he did in Florida? a) Clinton lost Florida anyway, and b) Florida ended up not being THE swing state. You should be talking about how well he would have done in the Rust Belt. And this is important, because it tells the Democrats how to win next time.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Tearing up listening to Obama. How could we do this to his legacy.

 

[sazzy]

Damn

 

[B-Dubs]

We're going to need to ease up on guns. It's not a battle we're winning and it's costing Dems.

Kander types may very well be the future.

I'm not entirely sure that's a party I'm comfortable with

 

[Sanjuro]

I've lost elections. Joe hasn't.

 

[Y2Kev]

Is not an argument, is a fact. Every opponent against Hillary ends up outperforming the polls in those key states, that was the firewall, the thought that those states were safe made the idea of a President Trump a rather unlikely result. She was a bad candidate people, the evidence shows that. Those states that Sander lost against Clinton were going to be blue or red regardless. The performance by which candidates should be measured is how they perform on the actual states up for grabs.

So what? On the traditional battleground map, Hillary beat Bernie where it counts. Other than Wisconsin and Michigan-- which, like, ok, forgive me for not thinking those would be up for grabs-- Hillary beat Bernie in Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bernie won in Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. It's not a huge fault, I think, for people to think that Clinton was better tested for the battlegrounds.

I am fine judging them by how they perform in the states up for grabs. Bernie didn't do well.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I hope we don't let this aspect of the discussion go forgotten, particularly when it comes to WI.

UCSD researchers: Voter ID laws suppress Dems, minorities

"Overall, the researchers found, strict ID laws cause a reduction in Democratic turnout by 8.8 percentage points, compared to a reduction of 3.6 percentage points for Republicans."

"According to the research, the effect on turnout based on ideology is also pronounced. Self-identified strong liberals tend to turn out by 7.9 percentage points less when confronted with strict identification requirements. Strong conservatives vote at a higher rate, by 4.8 percentage points, in the strict ID environment, the research indicates."

"Estimates of the percentage of registered voters without valid photo ID range from one to 11 percent."

 

[Cesare Borgia]

I thought "fear" would work, given the stakes and given the candidate (Trump). This was not a normal election. Granted the media treated it as such, but I expected democrat/Obama voters to react accordingly. I did not expect this:

@sahilkapur 3m3 minutes ago

Trump outperformed Romney with Hispanics (29% versus Mitt’s 27%) and with African-Americans (8% versus Mitt’s 7%). Stunning.

I didn't expect white female voters to go the way they did (at least not at that level).

For all the talk about specific policy, Hillary's message for the last month or two was "Trump is a monster." And it's true and seemed effective given the polling/events...it clearly wasn't enough.

I'm not sure where the party goes nationally, short term. I'm not sure Trump will drive the type of sheer anger that fueled democrats in 2004 and 2006 (to differing results, obviously). Maybe he does, who knows. All we can bet on is that the damage he can do in four years is immense, and democrats will have to decide what to do about it.

 

[Slacker]

Tearing up listening to Obama. How could we do this to his legacy.

I can't fathom ever admiring a president more than I admire Barack Obama.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Ahhh fuck, I just realized I'm going to lose my health insurance. I'm on my dad's plan, but I'm 24, so when they repeal in January that's going away.

 

[RustyNails]

No they wouldn't and you know that. He'd have been branded a communist and that would have been the thing instead of the emails. And it would have stuck because he plays into the attack with his rhetoric.

Just because Hillary lost doesn't mean Bernie would have won. He would have lost too, just differently. A big part of the 2010 narrative was Republicans rallying their voters to stop the socialist Obama(care). Socialism is just as bad if not worse than emails for Sanders.

Have we heard any political labels this year? It's like no one even cares who is a socialist or who's a fascist. Besides, Trump is on record for being a socialist in the past.

 

[Amalthea]

I hope Obama was able to activate Trump last night

Liberal conservative go

"So you like how Russians handle things? Then have a cup of my special Russian tea!"

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Tearing up listening to Obama. How could we do this to his legacy.

America never deserved Obama.