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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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I don't think a Republican can ever be appointed to a position of power again by a Democratic president.

The FBI was a disgrace.

Yup, if it was a DEM and he just shut his mouth about Clinton till after the election and something came out that she was going to be indicted or whatever. Big deal we still won and it doesn't mean she would be found guilty. That's the problem with all this shit. Republicans just give a fuck about winning under any circumstances. Dems want to win too but you can't be polite about this shit. They don't reward you for that.
 
So, actually, this is a tweetstorm worth reading:

https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/796465102941782017

I could quote it all but I decided not to, not because I don't value your time, but because of economic issues that seemed more important to me. So click the link.

The tl;dr is that Comey destroyed Hillary's chances. He toppled Hillary's support, cut into her turnout among Democrats, and activated Republicans.

So that's bad.

The bright spot at least is that maybe an intersectional candidate can win again in America, if the FBI and Russia don't work together to destroy her.

And if an intersectional coalition still exists in America after Trump gets started implementing his agenda.

We'll see.

WELP.
 

Blader

Member
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?
 

pigeon

Banned
Similar tweet-storm here, worth your time. Don't have time to put it all in here, just follow the trail.

https://twitter.com/polotek/status/796354824983842816

This one I'l copy for you folks because if you read it and believe it it'll be good for you.

@polotek said:
There's a lot to process. But something very important has crystallized for me. It's something I might've ignored had Trump been defeated.

This country is divided. But it's not racial divisions that hold us back. It's white ppl that are most divided today.

Black people came out. Latinos came out. Everyone came out unambiguously, unflinchingly blue. Except white people.

I've been struggling with this a long time. Trying to decide if it's true, if it's fair, what to say about it. I can't sidestep it anymore.

Let's talk about this. Because it's a major shift in my thinking.

First I've been trying to decide if we "liberals" live in a bubble or echo chamber. It's a common refrain. And I've been resistant to it.

Today my conclusion is that, like most things, it's nuanced. Most PoC don't live in a bubble. We cant afford to. But many white ppl do.

White liberals have systematically and deliberately separated themselves from their conservative family and friends.

I've been gathering the data on this for over a year now. Paying close attention and trying to see if there was any self awareness.

While liberals so surprised by all the shit that goes down. So much so that it's a meme. Being "shocked" every time something happens.

Meanwhile the meme among PoC is having to say "I told you so". Being black is being constantly upset that white ppl don't believe you.

White liberals spend way more time denying reality to PoC than they do hearing reality from their white conservative family and friends.

This is not rhetoric. I mean it quite literally. White liberals have walled themselves off from the reality of the racism in their community

White liberals "hate facebook" because of all the racism there. Those are your family and friends, but you won't talk to them.

White liberals from flyover states hate going home for holidays. Because they are surrounded by bigoted family and friends.

White liberals will spend all day today (started last night) finding PoC to apologize and say #NotAllWhitePeople.

They want so badly to not be associated with the rest of whiteness. They want to stand on our side and act like they can't believe it.

Not only do you believe it. But you know exactly where it lives. You know these people better than PoC ever will. They are your people.

The white family, the white community us divided. And as long as that's true, progress will be stalled, halted, reversed in fits and starts.

Let's step back from this and try to put it in context. All the pieces are falling into place for me.

How did we get here? Why is the white community so divided? Because y'all decided racism was over without ever addressing it.

We've talked a lot on this TL about how America has never been forced to acknowledge and contend with it's greatest sins.

There is nothing that happened to change the prevailing white racist sentiment. It's still there. Always has been.

What did happen was a critical mass of whiteness broke off and managed to vote with us to change some things for the better.

We ended Jim Crow, got the vote, the Civil Rights Act. None of that could've happened without white allies.

But instead of these being moments of healing from past sins for the white community, all it did was create a deepening rift.

The white ppl that broke with white racism didn't fix anything. They just never went home.

Because they didn't actually fix anything, they had to do something to avoid the inevitable dissonance. So they created liberal enclaves.

Look at the electoral maps. Drill into the states. What we see is singular blue counties, clustered around cities, in an endless sea of red.

Part of this is explained by the fact PoC tend to be clustered around major metro areas. Forced segregation, danger in rural areas, etc.

But my theory is it's not just us. White liberals have also been running away from the ugliness of racist reality to create liberal bastions

This makes perfect sense when you consider what whiteness has been taught to do. If you don't like something, wall yourself off from it

They've done this to us for centuries. Whites have always reacted to discomfort by creating an environment where they don't have to face it.

That's what happened last night. The bubble you intentionally created to shield you from the reality of this country popped.

So many ppl on here. So many ppl I know. They're saying "I didn't know things were this bad" or "I thought we were better than this".

You created that narrative to keep yourself warm at night. That warmth made you complacent. And you forgot why we were fighting.

There's so much more here. But I'm gonna pause for a while. I need to hug my wife and my baby.
 

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?

This hurts the most. Nothing he did will he there it will be forgotten.
 
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?

Been thinking about that, too.

President Obama deserves better.
Hillary Clinton deserved better.
Americans suck.
 
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?

We still get his supreme Court picks. But in a year he might as well not have existed. History will remember him as our first black President but that's it.
 
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?

He still is going to have 60%+ approval rating. His legacy will be that he saved the country from brink and pulled back from Iraq, killed Bin Laden, decimated Al Qaida and tried to implement healthcare system that for political reasons was uprooted. His legacy will be fine and will go down as an exceptionally accomplished, likeable President.
 
I don't think there's really any room in Democratic rhetoric for it (liberals get uncomfortable when you tell them that the other side is as bad as they are, apparently), but we do need to reform the way we think privately about the Republicans. We know it here, and I'd certainly hope Obama knows it now, but there can be no compromise, no weakness. We cannot work with these people. Ever. They will take every offer of peace and reconciliation, use it as hard as they can, and then spit in your face when you ask for a reprise.
 
So...

The wall.
Special prosecutor for Clinton, and "she'll be in jail."
Muslim ban.
Repeal Obamacare.
Exit NAFTA/TPP, tax Apple and others in a dumb way expecting them to bring jobs from China to the U.S.

Which of these happen?
 

Dierce

Member
i stopped after the first sentence. this country is boiling

They want the entire country to accept their prejudices so badly. They feel as if they were the ones being persecuted and discriminated against in the first place. Mother fuckers don't even know what that feels like and never will.
 

mackaveli

Member
I didn't sleep much last night but I think I've reached acceptance. My grief has been replaced by morbid curiosity as to how the fuck this is actually going to work. A lot of people's lives are going to be appreciably worse but there's fuck all I can do about it. May as well strap in.

The lesson that democrats need to learn out of this is that charisma is a non-negotiable in any presidential candidate. If they can credibly lay status to some sort of outsider status all the better. Policy knowledge and political experience - especially political experience in Washington - are unhelpful at best and actively detrimental at worst. Look at the democratic candidates since 1992: gore, Kerry and Clinton are all extremely qualified, realistic, intelligent. But they're boring. They can't sell a narrative. By contrast bill was a known sex pest before he won, and was basically a republican lite. Yet he cleaned up the democratic base - minorities included - as well as working class whites. Obama was a first term senator that won on airy fairy three word slogans and bullshit. Despite both of them being career politicians, they managed to claim outsider status.

People want rhetoric and they want hope. Believe it or not trump's MAGA is basically a right wing version of hope and change. A lot of the white rural voters that came out the woodwork this year voted for Obama in 08. It's deluded, and I think unethical to sell something that can't possibly be delivered, but it is what it is.

Agreed. But should the message in 2020 be though? We need an easy saying to get people fired up.

Scary thing is what if Trump accomplishes any goodwill or any positives to his base. The expectations are so low for his presidency that if he doesn't cause WW3 then its a win and then he wins again.

Only comfort I guess it seems like Republicans are topped out at 60-63 million votes and Democrats should be able to get 65-70 hopefully.

But then what about voter suppression going forward.
 
Seriously guys. How do you deal with that Obama's entire presidency is about to be erased in three months? Everything achieved, no matter how big or small, wiped out, like it never even happened.

I've had this going through my head over and over all day. Is there something, a collection of things, that will remain? Or is Obama's legacy as president simply going to be that he was twice elected president, and that's all?

That and the judges he nominated into their offices. At least he's alive and relatively young, I have a feeling he will be active in rebuilding the party for the better.
 
That engineer who didnt vote is hilarious.

"I don't want either of them."

Trump lead grows higher and higher.

*Nervous sweating*


Really? He knew one candidate was worse but still chose not to vote, lol.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's what rural whites want. They said it in Hillbilly Elegy, they said it in a million hot takes this year, and they said it yesterday at the ballot box.

I like to give people the benefit of the doubt. I assume that rural whites aren't stupid. I assume they know what they want and voted for it.

No. This is insane. Making a blanket statement like this is WHY the democrats can't draw them in. They aren't all like this. There are large swaths of these voters that aren't like this at all. Sizeable enough to change elections.
 

Totakeke

Member
He still is going to have 60%+ approval rating. His legacy will be that he saved the country from brink and pulled back from Iraq, killed Bin Laden, decimated Al Qaida and tried to implement healthcare system that for political reasons was uprooted. His legacy will be fine and will go down as an exceptionally accomplished, likeable President.

Does the 60% even hold any weight after what happened?
 
Obama tried to be conciliatory to Republicans for the same reason that he has to scold black folks a bit while talking about police violence in the U.S. - he's black, and he's walking a fine fucking line here in the first place.

I mean, he shouldn't have done it, but I get why he did.

Democrats should just be as obstructionist as possible and find some firebrands out there to whip everyone up in a frenzy. Short-term, that's terrifying and only accelerates polarization, but we have to save the republic first.
 

Trouble

Banned
No. This is insane. Making a blanket statement like this is WHY the democrats can't draw them in. They aren't all like this. There are large swaths of these voters that aren't like this at all. Sizeable enough to change elections.

Yep. Pretty consistent message has been that they feel like they are constantly being insulted and belittled by liberals.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Yep. Pretty consistent message has been that they feel like they are constantly being insulted and belittled by liberals.

Liberals are considered exclusive and elitist (and, to be fair, they probably are). Rural whites feel ignored and have been by democrat messaging for years now.

Clinton's legacy wasn't wiped away from Bush and the GOP controlling everything in the early 2000s.

Obama still has all of his accomplishments.

To be fair, it was a MUCH less contentious atmosphere and I would argue a different GOP at the time.
 

pigeon

Banned
No. This is insane. Making a blanket statement like this is WHY the democrats can't draw them in. They aren't all like this. There are large swaths of these voters that aren't like this at all. Sizeable enough to change elections.

That's what they voted for.

We have to deal with reality as it is, not as how white liberals would like to imagine it to be to absolve their relatives of guilt.
 
This is something I'm thinking idly about right now.

If we were going to get all the blame for being corrupt and cheating, maybe we should have actually cheated more.

I was saying this from day one on the ACA debate. But a lot of Dems like the middle isle approach in the face of complete cognitive dissonance.
 

mackaveli

Member
If real evidence surfaces that Comey's actions really did tilt the election, could he actually end up being prosecuted under the Hastings act?

Would Republican's go after him since they control all the branches of government? Is it possible democrats can go after him?

Seems like Republican's love what Comey did now with the results.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
That's what they voted for.

We have to deal with reality as it is, not as how white liberals would like to imagine it to be to absolve their relatives of guilt.

Show me your sources that say all rural whites voted because of racism yesterday. You talk about "reality," but you have the exact same attitude that cost the democrats the election.
 
So...

The wall.
Special prosecutor for Clinton, and "she'll be in jail."
Muslim ban.
Repeal Obamacare.
Exit NAFTA/TPP, tax Apple and others in a dumb way expecting them to bring jobs from China to the U.S.

Which of these happen?

Wall is a joke. Especially if he tries to get Mexico to pay for it up front, but even then.

Special prosecutor will be appointed, but nothing will come of it because duh. House will continue to have hearings and generally harass her, though.

Muslim ban might happen.

Repeal Obamacare day 0. Like, the moment the legislative session starts. They already have the bill written and stuck in a drawer somewhere.

The rest is trickier. I don't think they're going to tax Apple & co, because Ryan holds the purse strings and Ryan HATES taxes. But he might kowtow to Trump anyway. TPP is gonna be dead if it's not passed in the lame duck session. NAFTA might be dead.
 

Trouble

Banned
Clinton's legacy wasn't wiped away from Bush and the GOP controlling everything in the early 2000s.

Obama still has all of his accomplishments.

It's very hard to tear down popular policies even for the party in power. That said, the ACA is not popular enough to survive. I just hope they at least implement the cross-state competition to help keep premiums in check.
 
Liberals are considered exclusive and elitist (and, to be fair, they probably are). Rural whites feel ignored and have been by democrat messaging for years now.

We 100% are elitists.

When the results were coming into Florida, I kept yelling at the TV about how the "swamp people" were going to ruin America and how only the big cities should have any say at all because rural America is like 5 people who don't know how to care for themselves.

So yea, we're kind of bad at that.
 
It's very hard to tear down popular policies even for the party in power. That said, the ACA is not popular enough to survive. I just hope they at least implement the cross-state competition to help keep premiums in check.
The issue is

The mandate is super unpopular
Not denying people for pre-existing conditions is popular

One can't exist without the other
 
I doubt a Trump DOJ is going to spend time on the Clinton email server, folks. It's just trash talk.
Hillary POTUS would be another thing obviously
 
Wall is a joke. Especially if he tries to get Mexico to pay for it up front, but even then.

Special prosecutor will be appointed, but nothing will come of it because duh. House will continue to have hearings and generally harass her, though.

Muslim ban might happen.

Repeal Obamacare day 0. Like, the moment the legislative session starts. They already have the bill written and stuck in a drawer somewhere.

The rest is trickier. I don't think they're going to tax Apple & co, because Ryan holds the purse strings and Ryan HATES taxes. But he might kowtow to Trump anyway. TPP is gonna be dead if it's not passed in the lame duck session. NAFTA might be dead.

Establishment loves trade deals they most likely won't allow Trump to exit them, but what would be the consequences?

Many things that Trump said he will during the election really didn't happen.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So...

The wall.
Special prosecutor for Clinton, and "she'll be in jail."
Muslim ban.
Repeal Obamacare.
Exit NAFTA/TPP, tax Apple and others in a dumb way expecting them to bring jobs from China to the U.S.

Which of these happen?

The wall isn't happening, at least not a physical one. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see National Guard utilized along the border or something similar.

Can't Obama pardon Hillary?

Muslim ban won't happen unless there are serious terrorist attacks.

Obamacare is gone day one, but my guess is they replace it fairly quickly because they know prices will drastically increase.

Not sure about the last one. My guess is that's going to be incredibly contentious in the Senate.
 

studyguy

Member
Yep. Pretty consistent message has been that they feel like they are constantly being insulted and belittled by liberals.

Sucks but when the entire RNC is digging it's heels in and waiting to burn everything that isn't white or rural down I don't see much to build a bridge to. At this point it's a matter of waiting till rural workers come to terms that their rust belt jobs simply won't exist no matter who is in power. Asian markets aren't going anywhere, and US manufacturing jobs aren't going to magically come back because of Trump.

Shooting yourself in the foot because you felt discouraged isn't an improvement. It's a gaping wound.

Can't Obama pardon Hillary?

She'd have to commit a crime to be pardoned of one.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
It's very hard to tear down popular policies even for the party in power. That said, the ACA is not popular enough to survive. I just hope they at least implement the cross-state competition to help keep premiums in check.

Cross-state competition will be absolutely horrible. Everyone will just camp out in a state that has 0 requirements or regulation and no one will get any coverage as a result.
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
Show me your sources that say all rural whites voted because of racism yesterday. You talk about "reality," but you have the exact same attitude that cost the democrats the election.
Even if they didn't vote for racism, they sure as hell proved they don't have a problem with it.
 
Similar tweet-storm here, worth your time. Don't have time to put it all in here, just follow the trail.

https://twitter.com/polotek/status/796354824983842816

This one I'l copy for you folks because if you read it and believe it it'll be good for you.

wow, this was great and very enlightening. i said as the results started to look bad, that the Democratic party and liberals every need to re-open our strategy and look towards expanding. we do need to go back in because we left so many behind that they became bitter instead of seeing their ways as wrong.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
We 100% are elitists.

When the results were coming into Florida, I kept yelling at the TV about how the "swamp people" were going to ruin America and how only the big cities should have any say at all because rural America is like 5 people who don't know how to care for themselves.

So yea, we're kind of bad at that.

I live in a swamp area, it's true.
 

Diablos

Member
Huh, it looks like Trump's margin of victory was actually pretty small in FL, WI, MI and PA.

Not that it matters in the end, but hey, at least it wasn't that bad?
Well I know WI MI and PA were like 1 point margins.
CNN had an article up (I cannot find it) where they said the Comey letter probably cost them AZ... but I find it hard to believe that's the only state. One thing's for damn sure, that letter didn't just hurt the downballot...
 

Crocodile

Member
I feel like we are circling the drain and the only real suggestions I've heard was "talk less about issues important to minorities" or "be a charismatic minority so you can appeal to at least one block without having to talk much about issues important to minorities". There isn't a meaningful difference between "I'm racist" and "I'm not racist but I voted for someone who was overtly racist" - the end is still the same. We've established that the Democrats have better policies to alleviate most of their concerns. Can someone please tell me for the love of what is holy what exactly needs to be said to this group that doesn't in any way coddle any sentiment of _____ism some of them may have?
 
Wall is a joke. Especially if he tries to get Mexico to pay for it up front, but even then.

Special prosecutor will be appointed, but nothing will come of it because duh. House will continue to have hearings and generally harass her, though.

Muslim ban might happen.

Repeal Obamacare day 0. Like, the moment the legislative session starts. They already have the bill written and stuck in a drawer somewhere.

The rest is trickier. I don't think they're going to tax Apple & co, because Ryan holds the purse strings and Ryan HATES taxes. But he might kowtow to Trump anyway. TPP is gonna be dead if it's not passed in the lame duck session. NAFTA might be dead.

I don't see why? The GOP knows she's done for good now, they have no more reason to go after her.
 
Liberals are considered exclusive and elitist (and, to be fair, they probably are). Rural whites feel ignored and have been by democrat messaging for years now.

They're hostile to immigration, they're hostile to BLM's message, they're as clannish as liberals and about as demeaning toward minorities as they think liberals are toward them.

Look, they're economically anxious, sure. They also hate the fuck out of people who don't look, pray, or have relationships like them. Both of those things can be true at the same time.

This has been true since time immemorial. They love handouts until brown and black people are getting them. Appealing to them naturally means that you can't appeal to brown and black people.

The concept of "white genocide" is a thing, for fuck's sake. And it's not a thing amongst minorities or urban liberal whites.
 
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