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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
So, I was going to ask this once before, but I like now in our semi-calm reflective state here. And we've got some decent newbies from this election cycle.

Who did you guys support in the past five elections (edit: you can go further back if you want)? In this case, I'm going to use "support" to mean preferred them if I had to choose, which is why I list both parties, and note if I actually did vote for them. A second candidate listed is for cases where the prior dropped out beforehand. I'm leaving off Bush and Obama in 2004/2012 even if they had weirdo challengers who were probably awesome.

2000
D: supported Bradley (couldn't vote because caucus, would have); R: supported Forbes, then Alan Keyes for lulz; GE: supported Harry Browne, would have been a great vote in retrospect

2004
D: supported Dean (couldn't vote because caucus, would have); GE: supported Badnarik, so glad I didn't vote though

2008
D: supported Gravel, should have voted for him but if you remember they were being weird about the D primary even happening or not; R: voted Paul; GE: abstain completely

2012
R: supported Paul after Gary dropped out and didn't vote because I was doing something I forget; GE: write-in vote for Gary Johnson because fuck the MIGOP (I actually was fairly unruffled by Romney on a personal level, unlike McCain and Bush)

2016
D: supported Sanders, voted Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente; R: supported Rand, then bailed completely Carson was least offensive; GE: Gary I guess
 
M

mo60

Member
The republicans can't stop demographic growth with their policies. Go look at california where hilary won by over 28% on tuesday and trump is looking to be perform the worst for a republican presidential candidate since the state has gone blue by literally 5 percent more then both McCain and Romney. That is what the republicans nationally may have to deal with in the future.

Speaking of california trump is going to do even worse then bob dole in 1996 in California in terms of total votes once the votes are all counted.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
So let's see.

Rudy stop-and-frisk vampire Giuliani will be AG.

Newt ethics violation cheated on his cancer patient wife Gingrich will be Sec State.

Steve profited on foreclosures and Madoff fraud Mnuchin man of the people will be Treasury Secretary.

Oh and a climate change denier as Sec Energy.
Click to expand...

Okay. I have a plan for the mid-terms, to the point where I may make a thread and gauge interest/ideas on it. It's related to what Shinra said above.

There's lots of reasons why the Republican base came out - NeverHillary, DraintheSwamp, implicit or explicit sexism against Hillary, coupled with people liking what he was saying about groping women and the Hispanics. All that, and then the issues of jobs, economy, and WWC feeling left out. And the protest vote.

So. Idea:

Explicitly non-partisan GOTV company in rural and Rust Belt areas, based around holding the government to account. Trump said he was going to #draintheswamp - yet Wall Street banker as Treasury. Trump said he'd got jobs back to the US, yet he hasn't done it (*assumption that he won't*).

Co-opt every single message and hashtag the Trump campaign used, and flip it against him. But don't argue for voting for Democrats. Run on a #NeverRepublican message, because (by the time mid-terms hit) it'll be two years of corruption, and lobbying, with continued unemployment in the heartland, and no retraining.

Done right (in my head) it could enthuse a large majority of people, from all walks of life - the Bernie Supporters, the WWC, the abortion-rights people, everyone. Because - done right - it would be entirely non-partisan. Literally say to the voter, "We don't care who you vote for, as long as it is against the Republican's who lied to you and are taking Wall Street money. Trump said he'd Drain the Swamp, and he hasn't. Hold his government accountable."

It'd have to be a very flexible message depending upon voter - point-up stop-and-frisk if you come across an AA Trump supporter, but don't mention race if you're in the Panhandle, for instance. And co-opt Trump's core message - because in two years, if nothing is better, people will want to "Make America Great Again". And that message could be spread to the LGBTQ voters, the environment campaigners, the anti-corruption campaigners.

Thoughts?
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
mo60 said:
The republicans can't stop demographic growth with their policies. Go look at california where hilary won by over 28% on tuesday and trump is looking to be perform the worst for a republican presidential candidate since the state has gone blue by literally 5 percent more then both McCain and Romney. That is what the republicans nationally may have to deal with in the future.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Texas, Georgia, probably Florida aren't that far behind. This loss doesn't negate the argument that the GOP is not looking good long-term. They're in a good position for the time being, but good luck to Trump holding onto office once the "anti-establishment" luster has worn off and the blue wall realizes they've been duped.

That said, it's getting weird how strongly the political parties are becoming white people vs. everyone else. It's worse than ever.
 
M

mAcOdIn

Member
Plinko said:
They have said the preexisting conditions mandate would stay, as well as children under 26 living in a parent's home.

They also said the transition away from any other ACA stuff would take about 2 years.
Click to expand...
Well, look. The Pre-existing conditions mandate and allowing children to stay on their parent's insurance until 26 will stay, yes, but the backend subsidies that went to those companies to cover those extra costs will likely die. What that means is that unless they're replaced with another mandate or those companies are given some kind of subsidy from the Federal government insurance rates will go through the roof for everyone and more companies will drop coverage or pull back on their contributions to their employee's plans. It's just economics. So yes, people with private insurance through their employer will see no legal change but a shit ton of people are set to lose that coverage completely or flat out be priced out of affording it.

On the other hand, and I hate to say this, knowing that some people will suffer tremendously, if that comes to pass the amount of people affected will be huge. If they repeal Obamacare and the pre-existing condition and children staying on their parent's plan parts survive while everything that went to offset those increased costs are struck down everyone's premiums go up big time and more companies will decide to drop or reduce contributions. We're not just talking about people who just got insurance because of the exchanges losing their insurance or seeing a ridiculous hike in premiums, we're talking everybody. And this wouldn't just bring those who already had insurance through an employer before Obamacare paying what they would have had now had Obamacare never been implemented, no, they're going to be paying way more for insurance because now it's not just the general normal cost increases their plans will factor in but the added cost of having to cover people now that those private plans would have denied before. And the fastest way to really bring about change is when something affects everyone and this will affect everyone.

This is a huge poison pill. They can repeal Obamacare but the only people who will come out better off for it are those who don't carry insurance in the first place and are freed from the tax mandate, everyone else will suffer for it. At least when they knew it would be vetoed by Obama they could keep pushing it without any consequences. if they actually do follow through with repealing it they'd either need to set it up to where it doesn't legally kick in until later hoping they're not in office when the damage hits ot they're going to get a shit ton of flack once insurance companies start adjusting their prices.

Ultimately, the pre-existing coverage can not survive at an affordable rate without a mandate or government subsidies. They're either going to have to nix pre-existing coverage or ultimately decide to bring everyone in, whether it be via mandate or some kind of government run system for most Americans to be able to afford coverage.
 
D

daedalius

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
White people really needed to have white friends in Kansas.

So impressive that after the GOP set Kansas on fire that they get to have their agenda passed on a federal level.

Paul Ryan is really going to eliminate Medicaid and food stamps and that will suck so badly.
Click to expand...

It only took like 8 years of brownback's shit before moderate republicans and democrats took back minor hold of the legislature. So once trumps 2 terms are up, it will be dems then again!
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Marc Love
‏@marcslove
Clinton lost MI by 13,225 votes.

110,133 Michiganders cast a ballot w/o voting for President.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
I'm still in denial over the climate change implications of this. Fucking over our country economically, politically, and socially is bad enough but now we gotta fuck over the survival of the entire world too?

My only solace is that I've long been convinced we have to embrace more extreme geoengineering solutions like solar radiation management with sulfur or nanoparticles. I think that is something that could find play in Trump's brand of politics if he's not a true denier or if he can be convinced of the threat. It's pretty cost effective after all.

Does Putin acknowledge climate change? Maybe he can put in a call for us to Trump.

I'll probably have to step away from politics for a while as we head towards Inauguration Day though. It still doesn't feel real to me and that will probably break the spell.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Frozenprince said:
Alright one last time I don't get how the guy who lost the primary by ridiculous margins is suddenly Savior of the party and now we need like purity tests and shit.

But hey what do I know I guess.
Click to expand...
Because he's a Corbyn. Any failure of his is due to rigging/cheating/etc. He can do no wrong.
 
E

elvisaintdead

Member
benjipwns said:
So, I was going to ask this once before, but I like now in our semi-calm reflective state here. And we've got some decent newbies from this election cycle.

Who did you guys support in the past five elections (edit: you can go further back if you want)?
Click to expand...

I'm Canadian, so my following of American politics has largely been personal interest. Now I'm more worried and possibly feeling like I need to spend a little time advocating for things, because of what just happened and how it could affect the world, and people I know who live in America.

2000, didn't know anything.

2004, didn't know primaries. Supported Kerry in the general.

2008, supported Obama in the primaries (and general, it's dems from here on out in generals) because of the idea of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton, nothing substantive. Can't remember for Rs.

2012, didn't think much of the R field, maybe would've supported Paul if I really thought about it

2016, Sanders, Christie weirdly enough until I learned who he actually is. He seemed like the actual "tell it like it is" guy to me at the time. Also seemed smarter than the lot of them. Clinton in general
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
mAcOdIn said:
This is a huge poison pill. They can repeal Obamacare but the only people who will come out better off for it are those who don't carry insurance in the first place and are freed from the tax mandate, everyone else will suffer for it. At least when they knew it would be vetoed by Obama they could keep pushing it without any consequences.
Click to expand...
I trimmed out your post because I wanted to just make a smaller addendum and not quote the whole thing.

But building off of this, they're going to be affected with the same problem the Democrats faced when writing the law in the first place. There will be a complete mismatch between the House and Senate's "ideal" versions. And within the Senate it'll be a clusterfuck of designing anything that makes sense and throwing random shit in just to try and hold the vote together.

Obama, mostly ignored this on Rahm's advice and also Congressional Democrats boxed him out. Trump will have to use his unprecedented dealmaking skills to a much greater extent rather than just wait for whatever they put together, even if it's a stopgap measure that phases out Obamacare to some hybrid mismash.
 
H

HTupolev

Member
Frozenprince said:
Columbus Ohio voted Trump IIRC
Click to expand...
uiuRZ3U.png
 
B

BreezyLimbo

Banned
excelsiorlef said:
And screw them for that.
Click to expand...

Yup.

Their damn selfish views are going to fuck over alot of people. "But muh consciousness' nah. Nah, you get in damn line. I don't care if Hillary bleached your cat. They knew what was at stake.

I hope to god these same people who abstained are feeling the overwhelming dread of a republican controlled government.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
BreezyLimbo said:
Yup.

Their damn selfish views are going to fuck over alot of people. "But muh consciousness' nah. Nah, you get in damn line. I don't care if Hillary bleached your cat. They knew what was at stake.

I hope to god these same people who abstained are feeling the overwhelming dread of a republican controlled government.
Click to expand...

The only way they wouldn't is if they are secretly Republican, or they're sociopaths. You can't look at even one good thing coming out of this within the next four years, unless Trump pivots hilariously to a Dem stance on most things.
 
M

mo60

Member
Pixieking said:
The only way they wouldn't is if they are secretly Republican, or they're sociopaths. You can't look at even one good thing coming out of this within the next four years, unless Trump pivots hilariously to a Dem stance on most things.
Click to expand...

Most of the never trumpers that were warning people still think he will be a horible president when he gets into office.
 
E

elvisaintdead

Member
Pixieking said:
Okay. I have a plan for the mid-terms, to the point where I may make a thread and gauge interest/ideas on it. It's related to what Shinra said above.

There's lots of reasons why the Republican base came out - NeverHillary, DraintheSwamp, implicit or explicit sexism against Hillary, coupled with people liking what he was saying about groping women and the Hispanics. All that, and then the issues of jobs, economy, and WWC feeling left out. And the protest vote.

So. Idea:

Explicitly non-partisan GOTV company in rural and Rust Belt areas, based around holding the government to account. Trump said he was going to #draintheswamp - yet Wall Street banker as Treasury. Trump said he'd got jobs back to the US, yet he hasn't done it (*assumption that he won't*).

Co-opt every single message and hashtag the Trump campaign used, and flip it against him. But don't argue for voting for Democrats. Run on a #NeverRepublican message, because (by the time mid-terms hit) it'll be two years of corruption, and lobbying, with continued unemployment in the heartland, and no retraining.

Done right (in my head) it could enthuse a large majority of people, from all walks of life - the Bernie Supporters, the WWC, the abortion-rights people, everyone. Because - done right - it would be entirely non-partisan. Literally say to the voter, "We don't care who you vote for, as long as it is against the Republican's who lied to you and are taking Wall Street money. Trump said he'd Drain the Swamp, and he hasn't. Hold his government accountable."

It'd have to be a very flexible message depending upon voter - point-up stop-and-frisk if you come across an AA Trump supporter, but don't mention race if you're in the Panhandle, for instance. And co-opt Trump's core message - because in two years, if nothing is better, people will want to "Make America Great Again". And that message could be spread to the LGBTQ voters, the environment campaigners, the anti-corruption campaigners.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I like this. I don't see how wall construction could have started at this point, so that'll be a really good thing to bring up also.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
mo60 said:
Most of the never trumpers that were warning people still think he will be a horible president when he gets into office.
Click to expand...
The never trumpets will fall in line at the prospect of all branches of government giving them their favored policies. Tax cuts, gay marriage repeal, abortion, climate denial etc
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
mo60 said:
Most of the never trumpers that were warning people still think he will be a horible president when he gets into office.
Click to expand...
The people who were all preparing to bail after the Pussy tape are still in the Senate for the most part. And they form a majority with Democrats.

People aren't going to suddenly like Trump and roll over for him just because he won. Shit, the GOP didn't do that for Bush either. They'll be picking and choosing until they see how things are looking for 2018.

sc0la said:
The never trumpets will fall in line at the prospect of all branches of government giving them their favored policies. Tax cuts, gay marriage repeal, abortion, climate denial etc
Click to expand...
That's not really "falling in line" though. That's supporting the things they would have supported with Jeb! as President too.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
sazzy said:
Marc Love
‏@marcslove
Clinton lost MI by 13,225 votes.

110,133 Michiganders cast a ballot w/o voting for President.
Click to expand...

Wait what?
That seems REALLY high.

That's more non-votes than Magic Wifi Crystals.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
I know it's hindsight and all that, but the lack of attention on Wisconsin and to a less extent Michigan is really bumming me out.

The crazy thing is, the first ever big Hillary/Obama rally was planned for Wisconsin in June! It was supposed to happen the morning after the Pulse shooting though, so it ended up being cancelled. And then...she never ended up going ever. Crazy that just got forgotten about after that.

Of course, the team blitzed Pennsylvania left right and center and they still lost, so who knows . . .

I'm still utterly devastated, I haven't left my house since Tuesday morning :(
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
elvisaintdead said:
I like this. I don't see how wall construction could have started at this point, so that'll be a really good thing to bring up also.
Click to expand...

Ohhhhhh god I forgot about the wall. :(

But, yes, good point. :) I'm actually drawing-up sample questions in a word doc, and it's maybe 12 questions that lead the respondent to the idea that Trump/Pence/Repubs are just getting rich and being bastards.

Sample questions:

Who did you vote for?
Why?
Are you happy with changes to your life because of your vote?
Are you or someone you know recently employed or unemployed?
Did you know that:
1)The Treasury Secretary was a Wall Street banker who profited from fraud and housing foreclosures?
2)SOMETHING (I had Pence/electroshock therapy here, but technically he never said it, he just implied it.)
Do you believe there is – right now - corruption in Washington?
Do you believe that people in Washington are good people?
Did you expect the Wall between US and Mexico to be built by now?
Do you wish there was more accountability for politicians, and the White House?

Debatable, depending upon context/situation:

Would you be happy for a Democrat or Third Party person to talk to you briefly in the coming weeks about what they could do to help you?
Click to expand...

Also, a small leaflet, colorful, not too many words, just outlining the worst of the worst - Trump with the drain the swamp quote, Treasury Secretary with WALL STREET BANKER written next to him. Good shock value prop that can remind them of the conversation.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
benjipwns said:
The people who were all preparing to bail after the Pussy tape are still in the Senate for the most part. And they form a majority with Democrats.

People aren't going to suddenly like Trump and roll over for him just because he won. Shit, the GOP didn't do that for Bush either. They'll be picking and choosing until they see how things are looking for 2018.


That's not really "falling in line" though. That's supporting the things they would have supported with Jeb! as President too.
Click to expand...
I guess I mean, they will think he is awful but still help themselves to the buffet he brought.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
These are the big four Michigan counties for Democrats where they often run up the score along with the two "key" counties of Detroit suburbs. Number is D vote count (% share).

Wayne (Detroit)
2012 - 595,253 (73.1%)
2016 - 517,022 (66.8%)

Oakland
2012 - 349,055 (53.7%)
2016 - 342,976 (51.7%)

Macomb
2012 - 207,992 (51.6%)
2016 - 176,238 (42.1%)

Washtenaw (Ann Arbor)
2012 - 120,791 (67.5%)
2016 - 128,025 (68.4%)

Genesse (Flint)
2012 - 128,972 (63.6%)
2016 - 102,744 (52.4%)

Ingham (Lansing)
2012 - 80,903 (63.4%)
2016 - 81,266 (60.9%)

And the main large Republican county...
Kent (Grand Rapids)
2012 - 134,560 (45.5%)
2016 - 138,567 (45.2%)

And a Flint-lite county...
Saginaw (Saginaw)
2012 - 54,372 (55.5%)
2016 - 44,395 (47.1%)
 
S

ShironRedshift

Member
benjipwns said:
Macomb (Warren (Detroit suburb))
2012 - 207,992 (51.6%)
2016 - 176,238 (42.1%)
Click to expand...
:( So heart-breaking seeing this. I did my part and sent more than my fair share of cash Hillary's away, obviously wasn't enough though. Kind of blaming myself for not phone-banking or anything here. I was actually called multiple times by the Hillary campaign over the past two months or so, but just told them I was too busy with classes and stuff to phonebank or canvas each time. Maybe I should have made time, and not been so arrogant about our chances here and did more to help. Of course, there was no way to know that and hindsight's 20/20 and I really did need to focus on my classes especially since this is the last semester of my B.S. and even if I as an individual did everything I could to make a push I know it wouldn't have made a difference or changed anything with how things turned out, but still there's those thoughts eating at the back of my head. Still just totally destroyed by this. Can't believe this happened...
 
P

Psychoward

Banned
Maengun1 said:
I know it's hindsight and all that, but the lack of attention on Wisconsin and to a less extent Michigan is really bumming me out.

The crazy thing is, the first ever big Hillary/Obama rally was planned for Wisconsin in June! It was supposed to happen the morning after the Pulse shooting though, so it ended up being cancelled. And then...she never ended up going ever. Crazy that just got forgotten about after that.

Of course, the team blitzed Pennsylvania left right and center and they still lost, so who knows . . .

I'm still utterly devastated, I haven't left my house since Tuesday morning :(
Click to expand...
This is what I don't get about people trying to pin the blame solely on the Clinton campaign.

Like maybe that many people are just deplorable?
 
D

Diablos

Member
CrimzonSamurai said:
Lower than 2012 and 2008. Lowest since 2000.

Trump won with fewer votes than were cast for Romney or McCain.
Click to expand...
Absolutely pathetic that Dems couldn't beat that.
Absolutely pathetic.

I am not sure how much it ultimately made a difference but this definitely was not the year for a protest vote/casting a vote without voting for anyone at the top of the ticket.

Legit terrified at the prospect of a Trump Presidency especially now that I'm reading about his cabinet. This is literally a Tea Party administration incoming. Holy shit, this country is so fucked, he's going to do lasting damage.

Joe Arpaio for homeland security? Does ANYONE really think this man is going to keep us safe?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
ShironRedshift said:
:( So heart-breaking seeing this. I did my part and sent more than my fair share of cash Hillary's away, obviously wasn't enough though. Kind of blaming myself for not phone-banking or anything here. I was actually called multiple times by the Hillary campaign over the past two months or so, but just told them I was too busy with classes and stuff to phonebank or canvas each time. Maybe I should have made time, and not been so arrogant about our chances here and did more to help. Of course, there was no way to know that and hindsight's 20/20 and I really did need to focus on my classes especially since this is the last semester of my B.S. and even if I as an individual did everything I could to make a push I know it wouldn't have made a difference or changed anything with how things turned out, but still there's those thoughts eating at the back of my head. Still just totally destroyed by this. Can't believe this happened...
Click to expand...
Don't worry about it. It sucks to hear maybe, but you would have only helped around the margins even at your best. You simply can't deal with a drop like that without serious backing and such.

The Macomb, Flint and Saginaw numbers all scream good amounts of "White Democrats" voting for Trump to me. It's the thing that makes the most sense with that kind of shift and the demographics of the areas. Same thing in the other states I mentioned where like 95% white counties went from 50-60% GOP in 2004, 2008, 2012 to 70+% for Trump.

It had to be those Reagan/Perot Democrats because I can't imagine GOP turnout increasing enough to result in the numbers.

These counties voted more for Schauer than they did Hillary. That's how poorly she did.
 
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