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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
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cartoon_soldier
Member
I think the biggest thing with the election is that you need a candidate that will create a cult like following on twitter and facebook.
What has happened is that Trump was basically able to deliver his shit without any filter using social media. And the people on social media who took his shit and reposted it again and again to create a circle of influence.
This is the whole grandma email forwards magnified 100x.
What has happened is that Trump was basically able to deliver his shit without any filter using social media. And the people on social media who took his shit and reposted it again and again to create a circle of influence.
This is the whole grandma email forwards magnified 100x.
neurosisxeno
Member
Is there still a PoliGAF Discord? I know some people were passing it around on Election Night, but is it like a commonly used thing year round?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Mook is a complete moron. You have Bill Clinton, one of the greatest politicIan's of the last 50 years, telling you to try and reach these people and you're too conceited to agree? Mook should never run any campaign ever again.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Oh God, stop with the lynching. Mook is not a moron nor is Hillary. Everybody including polls everywhere had the white voters turnout less than anticipated.
Hell, the only person who really had any idea on what could really happen is NATE COHN.
benjipwns
Banned
His greatest moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Df8Pv6X0V0
That smiling.
He did well here too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQL4poUFg4A
whyamihere
Banned
I don't think there was anything, realistically, Hillary could've done to cut into Trump's margin with WWC. The problem in states like FL, WI, and MI was that her base just didn't turn out and his base REALLY turned out.
Yeah. I'm kind of here too. I think at the time the strategy was probably sound. She needed 100,000 more voters to show up in MI/WI/PA. It would've been much more likely to be her base than the WWC.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
No offense, but when I, a teacher, can say for months that I'm worried about MI and PA because of white rural voters, a freaking campaign manager better be able to do it.
He had a former president begging him to, and he refused. Come on.
balladofwindfishes
Member
All of this data shows that, assuming the Democrats elect someone at least sort of likable, that 2020 is not out of reach at all.
Those MI numbers show that it was pretty much 100% Clinton who failed and not the DNC in a crisis
Those MI numbers show that it was pretty much 100% Clinton who failed and not the DNC in a crisis
Those numbers make me sad...
But, yes, turnout and tell them not to vote Republican. My first two or three draft questions are, who did you vote for, is life better, are you are or someone you know recently unemployed. Get them to acknowledge their and their friends lives are not better (or worse), and you get someone who can stomach voting against the Republicans, even if that just means they're voting for the Democrats as a protest vote.
By non-partisan, btw, I mean have nothing in the first polling about the Democrats or third-parties. It is literally "What party is in power? Did you vote for them? Have they helped you?"
I mean, Christ - look at Flint. Are you telling me that if people hadn't sat down with WWC in Flint and said your Republican state legislature killed your children and retarded their brains, they wouldn't change votes?
whyamihere
Banned
It would've been much easier to get 100,000 people from her base to turn out than to try to cut into his margins in the WWC across 3 states.
Obviously if we go back in time, you tell her to run her campaign differently. But turning out people who supported Obama and Dem policies was priority 1. They failed there.
cartoon_soldier
Member
How are you going to appeal to them?
Stop appealing to BLM then, stop saying we need universal background checks, stop saying you will show love and kindness to Mexicans and Muslims. You think the campaign can just flick a switch and appeal to WWC?
The truth is, what a lot of the WWC voters want is diametrically opposite to what AA/Latinos want.
sazzy
Member
Looking at it from a distance, it almost seems like Mook had a personal issue with rural class white voters.
Mook is an idiot.
I don't see how you can look at the MAJORITY of the country and think you don't need their vote.
Trump was the only candidate going into those towns while Hillary focused all of her efforts on voting blocks that didn't show up to the polls.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I actually disagree. The problem Democrats have had is that DNC became useless under Obama and as a result under Clinton. While RNC build their own data models that proved to be pretty effective this year.
We need a strong DNC. DNC operations need to be a full time job not something a congressman does outside their governing duties.
Get a strong DNC, build it from ground up. That will help us in All States.
sazzy
Member
If these details had come out a month before the election, you can bet your ass I would be sending Mook angry emails every 10 minutes to fix this shit. ESP where people with more exp were telling him something...
cartoon_soldier
Member
Again, it is really hard to have a message that appeals to the big majority of WWC and also minorities.
It should have been Biden. He was the right candidate for this race. Speaks well to the frustrations of the working class, charismatic, likable, and a better candidate to run on the message of continuing the legacy of Obama's administration given he is in it.
Knowing what I know now about her campaign, Hillary honestly could not afford all of the bullshit surrounding her in regards to Wikileaks, FBI, emails, Clinton Foundation etc.
It's a shame, really, that the Republicans chipped away at her so much over the years which did her no favors. But that left very little margin for error from her campaign. It's smart to rely on data to run your campaign but not so exclusively that you're completely blind to what's happening in traditional strongholds in the rust belt while you make a play for states like Arizona instead. It's now clear to me that they realized (when it was too late) that the midwest was slipping away from them, hence the last minute stops to Michigan.
My top concern is if their shortcomings this year can be easily overcome by a candidate with a better campaign or if this damage is so bad that it has essentially lost Democrats the rust belt forever. They can't afford this. Yes, demographics are changing in the south and in places like AZ, but as we saw this week, it hasn't changed enough yet to create a "new map" for Democrats. This could take a decade. The map we ended up with is basically Michael Dukakis 2.0. A nightmare.
whyamihere
Banned
Maybe Bernie was on to something there, but I also think that ship had possibly sailed. I think she probably should've done more to engage with her base.
At the end of the day, the race was so tight that you can pretty much point to anything to confirm your biases of what went wrong.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We've already gone over this in the last few days. There are multiple areas where compromises could and probably should be made to reach this group, and subtle racism is involved in none of them.
Yes, and Harry Reid should be the guy to run it after what he did in Nevada. He's also the only Democrat with balls to say what needs to be said recently.
whyamihere
Banned
I think Biden was the answer, but again, hindsight.
And the good thing about Dukakis is 4 years later, we won. These are not insurmountable margins. She's only going to win by 1%. You could fill a football stadium with the votes she'd need in PA/WI/MI.
The bottom line is Trump won despite performing at McCain and Romney levels. That tells you nearly EVERYTHING you need to know. 6.5m Democrats didn't show up. How and where that makes up the for the difference in these now deep red "silent majority" counties I'm not quite sure but it should be enough to win.
Hillary had a good message but I think her campaign could have been managed better and she made some mistakes in how to appeal to voters. She's not Obama, and I was never expecting that level of greatness, but she and most importantly the people running her campaign just missed the mark. When Bill Clinton is pleading with Mook to take a second look at things and he's not doing it, well... that seems to demonstrate a bit of ignorance and being in too much of a data bubble.
So, yeah... Forgive this question, because I don't live in the States.
How possible is it to focus messages between different demographics? Obviously, you're not going to show an ad saying factory jobs are returning in San Francisco, but is it possible to focus ads on local stations aimed at the (let's face it) somewhat racist, sexist, poor rural communities of MO, and ignore those people's perceptions about the Democrat party? Push an ad that focuses on the economy, that ignores LGBTQ rights entirely?
Or does the cross-polination of media and people make that difficult? Would they still see the advert promoting queer rights in between NCIS re-runs on cable, and say fuck that?
(not sure if I'm phrasing this right, so apologies if this sounds confused)
I mean if you make the same exact campaign "promises" about bringing manufacturing jobs back to this country while Hillary still talks about BLM, background checks and the like you might have gotten enough people to keep WI and MI.
It's a troubling thing. These people want to believe they'll get their 80k a year cushy manufacturing job back and so they followed their orange savior promising them it.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah. I just don't think trying to make a play into the WWC was ever going to be effective. I still can't believe how much of her base didn't turnout.
benjipwns
Banned
There, that wasn't hard.
Turn it into a monthly comic, and I'm there! Hillary as black-ops/PI, investigating how the fuck those emails leaked.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This is a textbook example of getting so lost in big data, it comes back and bites you
Maybe he deserved to win. We were laughing at his campaign, but they were saying the right things and being in the right places to win. You get Democrats to hate their candidate and you walk into the White House
Maybe he deserved to win. We were laughing at his campaign, but they were saying the right things and being in the right places to win. You get Democrats to hate their candidate and you walk into the White House
If it's effective enough to turn out enough WWC voters in MI and WI and PA in favor of Clinton, then it's worth it.
I don't seem to recall Hillary talking a lot about how Obama basically saved the auto industry in Michigan. I'm not quite sure why they (including Obama) didn't make numerous stops to the state constantly reminding people how much he did to save the industry there. That alone could have locked up some votes. And they seemed to completely disregard Wisconsin which just tells me they had no idea how many votes were slipping away from them there. Or maybe it suggets that they did? Feingold performed worse than Hillary in WI. That just baffles me. Maybe that state is really lost for the Democrats. Looking at the county map compared to 2008, it looks particularly bad
The moment Florida's numbers was rolling in and it was clear the race was going to become that close it became clear to me that whoever got elected was going to have a whole lot to respond to. I think people are going to go into the next election with an incredible amount of expectations from both sides that's going to overturn the landscape in a huge way. Hillary might have lost the battle, and if she did win in these circumstances it'd probably have been a hollow victory, but playing to the kind of extremes that Trump did is a gamble on his end since if he can't live up to it, 2020 might end up being the kind of early landslide destruction that I think most people wanted this election to be.
People are clearly energized about the outcome and whoever got this election was going to face an uphill battle. The silver lining that I find here is that if the DNC can treat this as the wake-up call it's supposed to be then 2020 is going to be quite the exciting year.
this was apparent in this thread as well. Very classist.
"uneducated people are racist trash, fuck them" and while I agree with and hate those that actually are purely racist bigots, you cannot generalize and write off such a large amount of people.
whyamihere
Banned
Donald won by 1% in these states after losing the popular vote by 1%. They're not gone.
It's the economy, stupid.
It was always about the economy for those voters. All of the things you just said above go over the heads of a white 40 to 60 year old who lost his job and had to change his healthcare provider because his job changed his hours to part time.
To those people they are subsidising healthcare costs to a group of people they may never see when they feel like they could use that money themselves.
Gay rights and support for gay marriage started to pick up when people started bravely coming out of the closet so people could put a face to an issue. "My cousin is gay and he's alright, why can't he have the same rights as me" whereas for a long time they imagery of being LGBTQ was the Village People or some sex crazed cult or something wrong.
A political party that cares singularly for the rights of the minority will always be in the minority. That isn't to say somebody can't campaign on protecting rights but if all of those Trump voters voted because they felt their needs were not being addressed.
I think her campaign only wanted her go into places they knew wouldn't have Hillary for Prison signs or where she would have to explain the why the fuck Bill met with Lynch on that runway. Yeah those issues didn't affect the lives of anyone else but the question of fairness and the feeling of a level playing field for those communities became the issue.
The same batch of voters who voted in the first black president voted in the first openly racist one.
You don't need to win WWC, just win 30-40% of them instead of 20%.
Trump screwing up (if he does) will take care of some of that on its own.
In fact, wouldn't that have been exactly the point of "public and private position" Hillary spoke of?
You emphasize your political goals that speak to specific groups and target the message?
https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/796660458270900225
Yeah. It seems like basic politics to me. It can't be as simple as all that, though? Because if it is, I should be their next campaign manager.
Yeah. It seems like basic politics to me. It can't be as simple as all that, though? Because if it is, I should be their next campaign manager.
whyamihere
Banned
To be fair, they also voted for the racist.
The Chosen One
Member
I gotta admit, I was never a big fan of the "I'm with Her" slogan. I know in part it was suppose to be a clever way to use the "H" in her name, but the slogan still rubbed me the wrong way. It came off as self-centered or entitled. Hilary was suppose to be with us, not the other way around.
And honestly given her negatives and baggage, it was the worst messaging possible. It fed into the perception that the Clintons are all about themselves. Considering her high unfavorables, did they really think undecideds or conservative democrats would frolic to the "I'm with Her" message.
whyamihere
Banned
Ultimately, successful Democratic candidates have that inspiring X factor. She did not. I think that hurt her more than any missed trips to Eau Claire.
benjipwns
Banned
Yeah, but if the rules were completely different they would be fine!
shinra-bansho
Member
The people who elected Trump did not want to continue Obama's legacy.
She would not have gotten their votes.
You all have to stop kidding yourselves.
She would not have gotten their votes.
You all have to stop kidding yourselves.
What do you think the likelihood is for McConnell to nuke the filibuster? Has to be 80-90%.
I mean, Schumer was basically threatening Republicans before they even knew for sure that they'd have a big win on their hands. Can't help but think they will throw that right back in their faces. Trump is totally going to take advantage of the Reid rule to get his cabinet taken care of.
I mean, Schumer was basically threatening Republicans before they even knew for sure that they'd have a big win on their hands. Can't help but think they will throw that right back in their faces. Trump is totally going to take advantage of the Reid rule to get his cabinet taken care of.
I don't think that's what we're saying. At least, I'm not. Dems needed a better campaign and candidate to turn out those voters who decided to sit this one out or vote third party.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah.
benjipwns
Banned
Collins, McCain and Graham were in the Gang of 14 and they're enough votes to prevent it. So it's up to them.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
True. The votes from many voters were there for Obama. They were not for Hillary. They needed a better candidate.
They'll probably roll over.
You know something that I haven't seen mentioned much is that while we're now stuck with the possibility of Trump being a puppet for a president Pence, we could have had Kasich in that same exact position instead.
I'm no fan of Kasich, but I would be feeling far better about the next four years if he was acting as a wedge in Trump's inner circle.
I'm no fan of Kasich, but I would be feeling far better about the next four years if he was acting as a wedge in Trump's inner circle.
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