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[RustyNails]

It would've been much easier to get 100,000 people from her base to turn out than to try to cut into his margins in the WWC across 3 states.

Obviously if we go back in time, you tell her to run her campaign differently. But turning out people who supported Obama and Dem policies was priority 1. They failed there.

She was having turnout problems with her base. If you are having turnout problem with your base, trying to tell people to vote for you is not going to help. She needed to appeal to outside her base - poor whites by talking about her upbringing and contrast with Trump. Yeah they got energized by nationalism but I'm sure there could be a few undecided rural whites to be found.

 

[whyamihere]

True. The votes from many voters were there for Obama. They were not for Hillary. They needed a better candidate.

Ultimately I think Biden was the answer.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

You know something that I haven't seen mentioned much is that while we're now stuck with the possibility of Trump being a puppet for a president Pence, we could have had Kasich in that same exact position instead.

I'm no fan of Kasich, but I would be feeling far better about the next four years if he was acting as a wedge in Trump's inner circle.

Trump won being Trump. Nobody is going to control him.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

True. The votes from many voters were there for Obama. They were not for Hillary.

And they wouldn't have been there for any of these other magical counterfactual candidates either.

 

[whyamihere]

She was having turnout problems with her base. If you are having turnout problem with your base, trying to tell people to vote for you is not going to help. She needed to appeal to outside her base - poor whites by talking about her upbringing and contrast with Trump. Yeah they got energized by nationalism but I'm sure there could be a few undecided rural whites to be found.

If you're not turning out your base, you definitely shouldn't go try to appeal to people who aren't your base. There were a lot of Obama voters in MI/WI/PA who didn't vote for her. Those are the people she needed. They just didn't like either option.

 

[benjipwns]

You know something that I haven't seen mentioned much is that while we're now stuck with the possibility of Trump being a puppet for a president Pence, we could have had Kasich in that same exact position instead.

I'm no fan of Kasich, but I would be feeling far better about the next four years if he was acting as a wedge in Trump's inner circle.

He's not much better:

Kasich, the governor of Ohio, has said he wouldn’t have signed anti-LGBT laws like the ones recently enacted in North Carolina and Mississippi, but today on CNN’s State of the Union with Dana Bash, he said that as president, he wouldn’t do anything to stop states from passing such legislation.

“There is a legitimate concern for people being able to have their deeply held religious beliefs, religious liberty,” he told Bash. “But there’s also people who we shouldn’t be discriminating against. … We need to strike a balance, and I just wish we’d take a breath and calm down and take a breath, because you see, trying to legislate that balance is complicated and you keep doing do-overs, because nobody gets it right.”

He continued, “What I would like to say is just relax, and if you don’t like what somebody’s doing, pray for them, and if you’re feeling like somebody is doing something wrong against you, can you just for a second get over it?”

Kasich said of a California proposal to teach about the contributions of the LGBT community in schools, “They’re going to teach this in a book. I mean, what are they doing here… I’ll tell you something. It never ceases to amaze me. I love to come to California, but when I study this stuff, it never ceases to amaze me.”

 

[Pixieking]

I currently can't stomach the papers to a large extent, so maybe this has been answered, but I've not seen it. Sorry.

1) What can Obama do before January? Anything?
2) What's happening with Trump's "blind trust"?
3) Given what we know about the various court-cases/accusations against him, what are the chances Trump is prosecuted, or impeached? Would that have any substantial effect, or would it be too late in the day (like, one year away)?

 

[Oblivion]

What do you think the likelihood is for McConnell to nuke the filibuster? Has to be 80-90%.

Entirely? Or just for appointing SC justices?

For the latter, 110%. No fucking way Republicans will allow Dems to leave such a powerful position open. So that's already gone like Donkey Kong.

What I'm more curious about is the filibuster for general legislation. My hope is that they don't go that far because there have to be quite a few bills that certain less crazy Republicans wouldn't actually want to get passed, and could use the filibuster as a means to blame the Dems and deflect criticism from the base.

 

[whyamihere]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

And they wouldn't have been there for any of these other magical counterfactual candidates either.

Yeah, as I say these things, I don't know. But I think Biden could've blunted Trumpism in MI/WI/PA with enough votes on the margins to make a difference. But I don't know. It's 4:30 and I've been wide awake for an hour thinking about this.

 

[Fox318]

Again, it is really hard to have a message that appeals to the big majority of WWC and also minorities.

A few things.

Firstly you can do both. For every appearance she was in The Breakfast Club she could. Have been meeting with union leaders in the Midwest or taking an issue like Heroin addiction which is destroying those communities and promising to treat those who are sick and go after and prosecute heavly the people selling those drugs.

Even if you believe would create an arms race with those dealers many of those towns impacted by drugs don't have the law enforcement to deal with the sheer number of drugs coming into their communities.

That's an issue that would have struck at the heart for many of those voters that her campaign staff probably told her not to bother with because college educated women were less likely to have a heroin problem so why focus on that.

 

[Diablos]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

I am talking about the 6.5m less Democratic voters who were turned off enough by Hillary's campaign that they did not turn out. I'm confident even half of those voters would have allowed for Hillary to win. Biden would have turned enough of them out. Hell, he could have possibly siphoned away some soft Trump supporters who felt like they had nowhere else to go with Hillary being the only other viable option because they felt she didn't speak to their needs.

 

[Nordicus]

Yeah, but if the rules were completely different they would be fine!

*sigh*
My sister pretty much said this.

"Hey, we can just get rid of the electoral college and Hillary wins!"

 

[Plinko]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

And they wouldn't have been there for any of these other magical counterfactual candidates either.

Biden reached out to these people. He is one of these people. He wasn't a "magical counterfactual candidate." He could have done it but I'm fairly certain he knew the writing was on the wall for Hillary. Either way, that's a non-issue. What's important is figuring out how and why Hillary/Mook screwed up and fixing it for the future.

I mean, I lived in Michigan for decades. Biden is the exact kind of guy that appeals to those voters.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Also, it's bemusing you're all throwing the data people that were Obama's winning team under the massive massive bus that's now got some horrific pile of corpses behind it.

 

[Diablos]

Entirely? Or just for appointing SC justices?

For the latter, 110%. No fucking way Republicans will allow Dems to leave such a powerful position open. So that's already gone like Donkey Kong.

What I'm more curious about is the filibuster for general legislation. My hope is that they don't go that far because there have to be quite a few bills that certain less crazy Republicans wouldn't actually want to get passed, and could use the filibuster as a means to blame the Dems and deflect criticism from the base.

Both.

I agree SCOTUS is not looking good.

General legislation, I am not so sure.

Also, it's bemusing you're all throwing the data people that were Obama's winning team under the massive massive bus that's now got some horrific pile of corpses behind it.

Data is just one part of it. The other parts are the candidate and the campaign and your messaging. That's where she fell short. She seemed to take too many calculated risks and struggled with messaging to key demographics in the rust belt. Obama had no problem with any of this, his campaign was a well-oiled machine.

 

[RustyNails]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

And they wouldn't have been there for any of these other magical counterfactual candidates either.

Its not a zero sum game. You can appeal to different groups by talking about different things. Blacks dont stop caring for her when she's suddenly talking about Iran nuclear deal or some shit. Same way she wont lose black voters if she talked about her modest upbringing, faith and work ethic to rural white undecideds. Everyone will have something to work with. Hell, Trump went to black communities and told them to vote for him because why the fuck not, and they did. Cross appeal works.

Also, it's bemusing you're all throwing the data people that were Obama's winning team under the massive massive bus that's now got some horrific pile of corpses behind it.

I dont care if they were Obama people. They failed Hillary. No reason to be in Arizona when your shit was collapsing in freaking Wisconsin. Wisconsin!

 

[Hammer24]

Hey guys. I remember reading (here?) about a son of a Klan leader, who changed his ways while being in university. And I can't remember the name.
I'd really appreciate your help!

 

[Plinko]

Also, it's bemusing you're all throwing the data people that were Obama's winning team under the massive massive bus that's now got some horrific pile of corpses behind it.

Because the team won in a radically different political climate. Yes, 4 years ago the climate was much, much different.

Also, IT WAS OBAMA. Let's not go crazy saying his team was only responsible. The guy is a once-in-a-lifetime candidate.

 

[Pixieking]

Hey guys. I remember reading (here?) about a son of a Klan leader, who changed his ways while being in university. And I can't remember the name.
I'd really appreciate your help!

Derek Black?

The white flight of Derek Black

Data is just one part of it. The other parts are the candidate and the campaign and your messaging. That's where she fell short. She seemed to take too many calculated risks and struggled with messaging to key demographics in the rust belt. Obama had no problem with any of this, his campaign was a well-oiled machine.

I wonder if the sheer amount of wank she had to deal with over the years just made her to afraid too open-up and talk to people from different backgrounds? On and on and on, and she was just afraid to open herself to more attacks? Maybe? I don't know, I see her as a very human person, especially when she talks about her faith and her mother, so *shrugs*

On that note:

Top House Republican says he’ll continue probe of Hillary Clinton’s private email server

While President-elect Donald Trump pledged in his victory speech to “come together as one united people,” a top House Republican said Wednesday he will continue to investigate Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state.

Jason Chaffetz, the Utah congressman finishing his first term leading the powerful House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, made it clear the partisan bitterness that marked the presidential campaign is not going to go away.

 

[NotLiquid]

So they have a better candidate. Then what? These voters are rejecting Clinton, they're rejecting 8 years of Obama, they're rejecting diversity.

Throw an old white man on the ticket who's still saying that yes, Black Lives Matter. Nope. Sorry.

If the argument is that Biden could have turned out enough black people to blunt the tide of Trumpism, I guess I can see it.

But Trump gives these voters a scapegoat, and appeals to their fears, and "economic anxiety."

This is why I still think Trump's supporters are going to be expecting way more out of his first four years than Hillary's supporters would of her's though. He's riding a tidal wave built partially on anti-establishment but also on extremism and fear. If he can't accommodate to the people who were swayed so easily by the latter, they're going to lose faith in him quickly, and he has plenty of chances to leave himself off guard for when 2020 rolls around.

 

[benjipwns]

Funny enough, in the 2000 election, because of the polling many people were projecting that Bush would win the popular vote while Gore had the better map and take the electoral vote.

Of course, they also stopped polling like four days before the election.

At least nowdays we know how to do polling properly.

 

[anaron]

To be fair, they also voted for the racist.

oh believe me, anyone who just chose him over her is a fucking idiot and I lack any sympathy for when things don't go how they want them to.

I just think there's an obvious value in connecting with general working class people and letting them feel like they're valued that wasn't really addressed by the democrats campaign or their most passionate followers. Using education as some barometer for being a decent human is incredibly cruel and untrue (hey 52% of Trump voting educated white women!) to those that lack the opportunity to even attend school.

 

[Diablos]

I dont care if they were Obama people. They failed Hillary. No reason to be in Arizona when your shit was collapsing in freaking Wisconsin. Wisconsin!

Also keep in mind this was Mook's campaign, along with Hillary. They were at the helm. The data people have one fucking job. Relying on a formidable data operation alone does not win you an election. Obama knew how to balance his candidacy, messaging and data operations equally. Mook and Hillary didn't. You can comb through data for Wisconsin and Michigan but if you aren't taking your message there and it's not resonating with people, the data will start to crack.

 

[Barzul]

Biden would've won easily. I've been doing a lot of reflecting, I think it really comes down to people really disliked Clinton so they either did not show up or held their noses and voted Trump. Biden would not lose, PA, WI, MI and thus would not lose the presidency. Heck lines like I would take him to the back of my high school would've been relatable as hell. It's a call for violence, but man it's definitely relatable. Hillary was just not good enough, too much baggage over 30 years thought against Trump she'd edge it but nah looks like it was too much.

 

[whyamihere]

I think for a Democratic candidate, you HAVE to win "cares about people like me." She just never connected on that level.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Also keep in mind this was Mook's campaign, along with Hillary. They were at the helm. The data people have one fucking job. Relying on a formidable data operation alone does not win you an election. Obama knew how to balance his candidacy, messaging and data operations equally. Mook and Hillary didn't.

Here is the thing. The data captured everything, it captured that AA turnout will be down compared to 2012. It captured that Latino turnout will be up in FL, AZ, GA, etc.

What it didn't capture, and really nobody captured this is what WWC turnout would be way up. Even RNC data didn't capture this, they had Trump losing too.

In fact what this Election shows is that Data can only get you so far. GOTV can only get you so far. Enthusiasm/Excitement is most important factor.

Facebook/Twitter is more important than any campaign website.

 

[whyamihere]

Here is the thing. The data captured everything, it captured that AA turnout will be down compared to 2012. It captured that Latino turnout will be up in FL, AZ, GA, etc.

What it didn't capture, and really nobody captured this is what WWC turnout would be way up. Even RNC data didn't capture this, they had Trump losing too.

In fact what this Election shows is that Data can only get you so far. GOTV can only get you so far. Enthusiasm/Excitement is most important factor.

Facebook/Twitter is more important than any campaign website.

This is correct, sadly.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Obama was a once in a lifetime. But Biden could of done it. So I guess Obama wasn't a once in a lifetime.

He would have turned out more black voters than Clinton. Because, who knows. He's done so well in appealing to them before, what with his past successful Presidential campaigns.

And he'd also get these MAGA people. Because they really want to continue Obama's legacy.

I guess he does have a penis, so that helps.

Seriously, you're all all over the place trying to find things to cling to.
Either so that you don't have to acknowledge how frail and fair-weather the left's coalition is. Or to accept just how ugly half the electorate is.
Adamant that you're not screwed. When you are.

Also, yes. It's a zero-sum game for these voters. Because when you help the blacks, it's at the expense of taking care of them in their minds in this binary system.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

A few things.

Firstly you can do both. For every appearance she was in The Breakfast Club she could. Have been meeting with union leaders in the Midwest or taking an issue like Heroin addiction which is destroying those communities and promising to treat those who are sick and go after and prosecute heavly the people selling those drugs.

Even if you believe would create an arms race with those dealers many of those towns impacted by drugs don't have the law enforcement to deal with the sheer number of drugs coming into their communities.

That's an issue that would have struck at the heart for many of those voters that her campaign staff probably told her not to bother with because college educated women were less likely to have a heroin problem so why focus on that.

She did. She had a better plan to fight Heron addiction. She talked about it.

Trump said that all the Mexicans are bringing drugs and he will build a wall.

Guess what resonated and why?

Policy no longer matters. Slogans do.

 

[sazzy]

Financial Times corresp:

Jack Farchy
‏@jfarchy
Russian foreign ministry: "a number" of people in Trump's inner circle "maintained contacts with Russian representatives"

 

[Donthizz#]

People forget that in 2012 Obama ran a very aggressive campaign, compared to his hope campaign in 2008.

Hillary was just playing defence all the time.

 

[Diablos]

Here is the thing. The data captured everything, it captured that AA turnout will be down compared to 2012. It captured that Latino turnout will be up in FL, AZ, GA, etc.

What it didn't capture, and really nobody captured this is what WWC turnout would be way up. Even RNC data didn't capture this, they had Trump losing too.

In fact what this Election shows is that Data can only get you so far. GOTV can only get you so far. Enthusiasm/Excitement is most important factor.

Facebook/Twitter is more important than any campaign website.

Facebook and Twitter didn't win this election for Trump. His appeal to the worst aspects of US society pushed him over the top with a lot of WWC voters I think; combine that with a depressed Dem turnout and it's just toxic. It just blows my mind that he won at McCain and Romney levels.

 

[FiggyCal]

I still don't get how intelligent people like Cornel West or Chris Hedges don't see that supporting Hillary is in their best interest. Especially given that they supported a buffoon like Jill Stein.

 

[Diablos]

And he'd also get these MAGA people. Because they really want to continue Obama's legacy.

Biden never would have got these people, but he would have increased Democratic turnout to a level that is closer to 2012 and that's all he would have needed.

 

[Kusagari]

Obama was a once in a lifetime. But Biden could of done it. So I guess Obama wasn't a once in a lifetime.

He would have turned out more black voters than Clinton. Because, who knows. He's done so well in appealing to them before, what with his past successful Presidential campaigns.

And he'd also get these MAGA people. Because they really want to continue Obama's legacy.

I guess he does have a penis, so that helps.

Seriously, you're all all over the place trying to find things to cling to. Either so that you don't have to acknowledge how frail and fair-weather the left's coalition is. Or to accept just how ugly half the electorate is.

Hillary lost the election by a combined 200k votes in 3 rust belt states. I don't think saying Biden could have blunted that loss enough to win is being foolish.

I also don't think anyone is thinking the general signs in those states are good. Even if a Biden or Bernie did win them this year, the results would have been down from Obama. Those three states will be safe red sooner or later. Most shockingly, PA might be headed that way the fastest; contrary to what everyone of us believed about the "mythical white whale."

 

[NotLiquid]

People forget that in 2012 Obama ran a very aggressive campaign, compared to his hope campaign in 2008.

Hillary was just playing defence all the time.

Yep, Hillary was way too passive. She could have won, but the high road angle, while somewhat commendable, assumed way too much out of people.

I have to wonder how Trump will run his campaign in 2020.

 

[Nordicus]

Gonna miss this bromance

 

[sazzy]

The Russian government was in contact with Donald Trump’s campaign before the US election, the deputy foreign minister said on Thursday.

“There were contacts” between Moscow and the Trump campaign, Sergei Ryabkov told Russian newswire Interfax on Thursday.

“Obviously the people who are called his ‘inner circle’ are for the most part known to us. They are people who in the US have always been in view, who held positions of great responsibility. Not to say all of them, but a number of them maintained contacts with Russian representatives,” he said.

The comments come after a campaign in which US officials said Russia’s interference was unprecedented. Senate minority leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, publicly claimed that the FBI was sitting on “explosive information about close ties and co-ordination between Donald Trump, his top advisers and the Russian government”.

Mr Ryabkov said on Thursday that Moscow did not feel any “euphoria” about Mr Trump’s victory. “I have to say that the positions on Russia voiced by members of the Trump campaign and people from his entourage were quite tough. And we didn’t see any grounds to somehow review our opinion that the election campaign in the US in fact saw a bipartisan anti-Russian consensus,” he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/18b1f2b3-0058-3ade-9505-9b7be9484a01

 

[metalslimer]

Obviously it's very easy in retrospect to think that Biden was the better candidate for this election and it was probably true, but pretending like things would have been smooth sailing is weird.

Looking back the deplorables comment was probably the biggest gaffe this election which is crazy but since we live in a racist white supremacist society you can't say these things.

 

[Hammer24]

Derek Black?

The white flight of Derek Black

Yes, thank you!

 

[Plinko]

Also, yes. It's a zero-sum game for these voters. Because when you help the blacks, it's at the expense of taking care of them in their minds in this binary system.

This is 100% false for most white rural voters. I've lived/worked/attended school/attended church with these people for over 30 years in multiple states, schools, workplaces, and businesses. This is only a small percentage of these people. One of the reasons Hillary lost is because Mook refused to get outside this bubble.

 

[Pixieking]

This is why I still think Trump's supporters are going to be expecting way more out of his first four years than Hillary's supporters would of her's though. He's riding a tidal wave built partially on anti-establishment but also on extremism and fear. If he can't accommodate to the people who were swayed so easily by the latter, they're going to lose faith in him quickly, and he has plenty of chances to leave himself off guard for when 2020 rolls around.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks like this. Politics is all about giving people what they want - look at Brexit - but if you can't give it to them, then you're going to be screwed. If the UK general election was middle 2017, you can bet things would be different politically right now.

Here is the thing. The data captured everything, it captured that AA turnout will be down compared to 2012. It captured that Latino turnout will be up in FL, AZ, GA, etc.

What it didn't capture, and really nobody captured this is what WWC turnout would be way up. Even RNC data didn't capture this, they had Trump losing too.

In fact what this Election shows is that Data can only get you so far. GOTV can only get you so far. Enthusiasm/Excitement is most important factor.

Facebook/Twitter is more important than any campaign website.

I... Don't know. The problem with the WWC is what percentage of them are socially progressive but genuinely upset about the economy and heroin epidemic, and what percentage are just racist/sexist? And then there's the Venn diagram where you've got people equally upset about all things. Again, like with Brexit, how do you divide the racists from the people genuinely worried about jobs?

It's less of an issue for The Middle Class who are fairly socially progressive and have jobs already.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Facebook and Twitter didn't win this election for Trump. His appeal to the worst aspects of US society pushed him over the top with a lot of WWC voters I think; combine that with a depressed Dem turnout and it's just toxic. It just blows my mind that he won at McCain and Romney levels.

It helped him tremendously. Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, 4chan and what not.

He was able to say whatever he wanted, appeal to white nationalism without any filter. It allowed his supporters to self-organize. He posts something, his supporter shares it. Who is on the Facebook friends list of rural America? Other Rural Americans.

Fake, fake stories were trending all the times on Facebook. We all ignored it, whatever. But it is now evident that these did have an effect.

A fake story that the Pope endorsed Trump was shared 800k+ times.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Biden never would have got these people, but he would have increased Democratic turnout to a level that is closer to 2012 and that's all he would have needed.

The turnout argument is one that has more credence.
The problem is, I don't think any of these counterfactual candidates do particularly better than Clinton. (That's without even considering the third term factor.)

Biden is no Obama.
Sanders is no Obama.
Unknown man sure as fuck isn't Obama.

They called it an Obama coalition. And it was.
I suspect even a hypothetical impossible third term Obama candidacy would have lower turnout.

 

[Keio]

Financial Times corresp:

Jack Farchy
‏@jfarchy
Russian foreign ministry: "a number" of people in Trump's inner circle "maintained contacts with Russian representatives"

Even though no "kompromat" was leaked before the election, how solid was the story that Russians have dirt on Trump? Which of course is interesting and scary leverage.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I... Don't know. The problem with the WWC is what percentage of them are socially progressive but genuinely upset about the economy and heroin epidemic, and what percentage are just racist/sexist? And then there's the Venn diagram where you've got people equally upset about all things. Again, like with Brexit, how do you divide the racists from the people genuinely worried about jobs?

It's less of an issue for The Middle Class who are fairly socially progressive and have jobs already.

You can't. Because a large part of people are both showing some racism and genuinely worried about the economy.

But we also know that the counties that had biggest employment growths since 2010 voted 70% for Trump. So, unemployment went down in these counties. But they still voted for Trump, why?

When you ask someone are you worried about the economy, a lot will say yes. But what exactly are they worried about in the economy is the better question to ask.

We need to wait for the updated voter files. I am looking forward to Nate Cohn's write up based on that and not the exit polls.

The polls were shit and so the exit polls will also be shit

 

[Barzul]

As a black guy living in the South, I know what living in a pervasive sense of racism looks like, like it's just there but I manage in it. Arkansas will never go blue again but I still live and I'm making it there. You guys need to stop condemning some of the people that voted Trump or Dems will not win the election in 4 years. At the very least we need the diet racists...those guys can be reasoned with an appropriate message and candidate. Can't give up on all of them, the country really is getting more progressive but this setback should show that we can't be complacent. Liberal white people talk to your conservative families, moderate them even more. If you can succeed at this, it will bleed into their social groups and their children might have more liberal ideologies.

And if you think you're above it all and that those people should be scorched then you don't care that much about the liberal cause because you're not desperate enough to do what needs to be done to forward. The right was willing to do anything. They embraced Trumpism to get ahead, we're going to have to use any and all tactics to take this country back from them.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obviously I'm still major bummed about the election but I think I'm past the shock for now. (Like on some level I don't think I ever will be, but it happened)

All we can do now is learn from our mistakes and look ahead. We need a likable candidate who can hold onto the Rust Belt before we start talking about the Sun Belt. We were so giddy about finally getting Arizona and Texas et al and never thought about Wisconsin/Michigan until the last second.

Then again I'm not sure if a big money dump there would have helped considering Pennsylvania was ground zero for the Clinton campaign and we still lost it. Winning WI/MI but still losing PA is still a loss anyway. It just needed an entirely different campaign focus.

I'm really annoyed at the Obama coalition that couldn't hold their nose for the lesser of two evils (because we're almost always on the losing side of that equation) but that's what we've always been up against - a firm Republican base that will always show up versus a bigger, but far less reliable Democratic base that will show up when they're in love with a candidate.

Seems like most speculation has centered around Booker and Warren but we really need to see how the next four years shake out. I also don't think the solution is to run a centrist old white man either (Bel Edwards, Bullock). We can win WI/MI/PA more easily by turning out the missing Obama voters than by convincing Trump voters.

Key to 2020:

Hold: MN/NH/CO/VA/NV
Flip (tier 1): PA/WI/MI
Flip (tier 2): AZ/FL/NC
Fuck off: OH/IA (they can come along for the ride in a landslide but we shouldn't bother)

As an aside if we capture Maine trifecta in 2018 that EV splitting shit changes now. I wouldn't blame the Republicans for doing it in Nebraska either and it's a distraction if anything.

 

[Pixieking]

Also, yes. It's a zero-sum game for these voters. Because when you help the blacks, it's at the expense of taking care of them in their minds in this binary system.

Yup. Same thing in the UK - immigrants coming to steal my job (as though the guy saying that is going to get-up at 5am to clean the mental ward of a hospital).

It's a narrative that needs to be stopped. A co-worker of my wife was saying at a party "Trump isn't that bad", and I just ignored it. Next time he says it, I'm going to call Trump a racist who sexually assaults women. Because normalising the narrative that Trump isn't a racist also normalises the opinions his supporters have that everything would be better, if it weren't for X.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Okay. Sure. Try go after the rural and WC white vote against Trump in 2020, see how well that works. These oh so nice people, that have gleefully voted for bigotry clearly just want a more charismatic Democrat to lead them again.

Hillary lost the election by a combined 200k votes in 3 rust belt states. I don't think saying Biden could have blunted that loss enough to win is being foolish.

I also don't think anyone is thinking the general signs in those states are good. Even if a Biden or Bernie did win them this year, the results would have been down from Obama. Those three states will be safe red sooner or later. Most shockingly, PA might be headed that way the fastest; contrary to what everyone of us believed about the "mythical white whale."

I think it's unlikely that he'd have more appeal to these voters than Trump.
In which case you still lose the Rust Belt to MAGA Muslim ban All Lives Matter.
I don't know how Biden plays in places like Nevada or Virginia.

Also, I agree. Trump has accelerated an already occurring trend. The problem for the Democrats is that this happened before they've shored up enough Latino vote.