whyamihere
Banned
Our base needs to feel inspired to go vote. We didn't.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
- Start date
- Status
Our base needs to feel inspired to go vote. We didn't.
You can still reach out to black and minority voters but unless they come out in record numbers (which they didn't) or you have solid responses to issues of race that allow others to empathize with a struggle it isn't going to affect a white family of 6 living in rural Indiana.
If I were to go to run for a seat on inner city board do you think I would get anywhere campaigning on farm subsidies and increasing fiber and broadband internet access?
Even in their VP selection they didnt really consider that block of white voters. They got Kaine because he spoke Spanish and while everyone in here was saying "OH SHE WANTED SOMEBODY SHE COULD GOVERN WITH" an opportunity to select somebody who could defend the voters Trump was trying to eat into.
Maybe Sanders or Tom Vilsack would have been better but her plan with Kaine backfired.
whyamihere
Banned
Hey bud. Glad to know you're doing well. I'm so sorry. This sucks.
*nods* That's fair. There's so many aspects to "the economy", but if people feel worse off (even if they aren't), they'll complain. Currency fluctuations, cost-of-living, cost of business rates... WWC don't know and don't care. They only know they feel worse off.
More needs to be done to have a nuanced conversation about this (and jobs), but fuck knows where you start. Better education system? Under Trump? Pffft. The media need to do more as well, but it's not like the WWC read WaPo or failing NYT.
Yeah, turnout in Philly and Allegheny aren't much worse from 2012. It's just that there are so many red counties surrounding it and turning out. I too am a bit concerned that PA is going the way of Ohio, just not quite as fast, i.e. it will genuinely be a swing state and not Safe D.
I still think WI is the one to worry about most? Just look at county maps from 2008, 2012 and 2016. It looks completely different.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, it's why liberals suck. And lose. You need unicorns. When unicorns are endangered species.
Evangelicals will go out and vote for grabs them by the pussy, doesn't end his acceptance speech with God Bless America, is probably an atheist Trump.
You think Biden loses Michigan and Pennsylvania? He has a way broader appeal than Hillary does. He also has a dick. I think a lot of these things really did matter. He might not net a win as large as Obama's but he'd win. NeverTrumpers and soft Trump voters would've embraced him far more easily than they did Clinton. You should hear some of the shit I heard about her at work. Obama was talked about way more positively. High unfavorables + sexism meant depressed turnout, bled votes and consequently a loss. If she only had to deal with the sexism part she could have eked out a win I believe. Nevada and Arizona would've gone his way simply bc of Trumps message he wouldn't have to do anything different from what Hillary did there.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Yeah. Awful night. Feingold, Kander and McGinty all losing really stings. And Clinton, obviously. Glad Hassan and Masto won. Ralston was right about the blue wave in Nevada.
It's more important than ever that we fix our midterm problem and I hope Obama plays a huge role in that. Until then, do whatever we can in the Senate to blunt the Republican majority.
If your base can't be inspired to vote for the first woman president, defending LGBTQ rights, abortion rights, equal pay and renewable energy, then your base needs to be talked to like a little child, and told why they should get out.
The negative ads against Trump should've done this, but I think they inspired a whole set of deplorables who do grab women by their pussies, and then talk about it in locker rooms. Ironically, the white women who voted for him are going to get screwed in the most awful way, because I'll be damned if this doesn't make Rape Culture permissible.
shinra-bansho
Member
Yes, I think he loses those states if he offers the same as Trumpism, but without the bonus of the scapegoating on blacks and browns. Maybe not all of them. But enough that he still loses.
Assuming Biden still plays by the old playbook of actually acknowledging blacks and women's rights. Part of the feeling that the world has left them behind is all these "special" rights and treatment that social progress has created for these groups. I.e. equality with straight, white men. They're part of an old blue wall that is gone now.
Biden is not some unicorn. He's a horse you're all gluing a cone onto in some sort of revisionist alternate reality.
Assuming Biden still plays by the old playbook of actually acknowledging blacks and women's rights. Part of the feeling that the world has left them behind is all these "special" rights and treatment that social progress has created for these groups. I.e. equality with straight, white men. They're part of an old blue wall that is gone now.
Biden is not some unicorn. He's a horse you're all gluing a cone onto in some sort of revisionist alternate reality.
metalslimer
Member
I also don't see how Biden energizes minorities to come out any more than they did. We already had the issue of different groups hating Clinton for her comments in the 90s. If Trump supporters were not being racist and just wanted something different why the hell would they vote for someone who's been there for decades with a lot of power?
I mean I guess he could have won PA but what was biden going to say to these economically anxious people considering he's been in the white house for 8 years. Anyone who hated the direction the country is going wasn't voting for Biden.
I mean I guess he could have won PA but what was biden going to say to these economically anxious people considering he's been in the white house for 8 years. Anyone who hated the direction the country is going wasn't voting for Biden.
nature boy
Member
Can't help but think if she had 100k more votes spreading through PA, WI and MI and we would be having a different conversation.
Nothing in the NYTimes piece is particularly new, she's a risk averse candidate. As long as she understands her time is over, let a new generation take the helms.
Nothing in the NYTimes piece is particularly new, she's a risk averse candidate. As long as she understands her time is over, let a new generation take the helms.
whyamihere
Banned
whyamihere
Banned
I've been lying away in bed for now an hour and a half thinking about 100,000 people in a football stadium.
Isn't the issue though that with a few more white people he'd have won? He literally needs 100K white people across 3 states.
Does he turn out black people and Latinos in the same way Clinton does? I think probably. She didn't do THAT well with women.
Can he shave a few points off Clinton's deficit with white people? I think probably.
Like I don't think he can win with the "Obama" coalition. I agree he's not a unicorn that will inspire fragile morons to go vote. But he doesn't really need to.
I don't agree that it's easier to get 100K of the Obama coalition to the polls rather than just relying on old school hard labor union democrats. The way certain districts in Wisconsin flipped from Obama to Trump should tell you she didn't have what it took.
I'm sober about this. I realize now the deplorables comment was symptomatic of a much bigger issue. The campaign just didn't care about these people.
shinra-bansho
Member
Biden could have plausibly done better. I buy it more than the idea of a Warren or a Sanders.
I still think he would have lost. And any win he had would have been threading the needle against Trumpism, which was more potent than anyone expected.
I still think he would have lost. And any win he had would have been threading the needle against Trumpism, which was more potent than anyone expected.
nature boy
Member
Well that's actually a good metaphor, because ultimately that was the difference between victory and defeat
Outside of Biden and Clinton, who does the Democratic have that speak to that demographic? Brown?
I think it would've been good (and can still be good) if that deplorables comment were expanded on. That people took it as a badge is one thing, but that neither the campaign nor the media explicitly said "This is what the deplorables are! Racists, misogynists, people who don't pay the workmen they hire, people who joke about rape" is a massive failing. She rolled back the percentage, but didn't expand on what she meant (not really). And the media could've looked at all the fucking Breitbart Pepe dicks, and written many stories (intertwining Milo and GG in there), and got people thinking.
Because, honestly, racism and sexism should not be tolerated. It should not be a badge worn with pride. But that's what happened.
She was a horrible communicator at it. The ongoing running joke with her in the culture was she was a robot.
For all the market research and data mining that her team did they couldn't release a 10 word awnser to the problems or she couldn't be frank with voters in how each problem can't be solved with a single awnser solution.
Being a good communicator and a good performer is what Obama understood and what Trump understood.
Hillary at no point was ever great at that.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yup and as a result they are underestimating his white support.
neurosisxeno
Member
I just stumbled upon this proposed list of what Trump plans to do in his first 100 days. Some of these things aren't terrible, but a lot of them are exactly as bad as I expected.
whyamihere
Banned
Our true problem is if this rust belt shift holds. I mean we barely held on to perceived liberal bastion Minne fucking sota.
What the hell is our path forward in 2020? Any path would almost be completely reliant on FL and we've seen that rural whites can overpower historic Hispanic turnout there.
What the hell is our path forward in 2020? Any path would almost be completely reliant on FL and we've seen that rural whites can overpower historic Hispanic turnout there.
There were three pillars in the Obama coalition.
1 was minorities.
2 was women.
3 was millennials.
The big problem was millennials, who need 'inspiration' to turn out. Who turned sullen when they didn't get the candidate they want.
So ask yourself if there was anybody that could have satisfied them? Apparently not the first female president, because everybody loves the ideas of hard work and resilience until it comes with 'bad optics'. Everybody loves experience and consideration until it comes with "not a good look". Everybody loves the idea of diversity and making history, until it comes with a woman who has made history so many times in her life.
Everybody sure loves making compromises with white people now, but they didn't like it when Hillary Clinton did it.
Because they wear their respect for the American values of hard work, resilience, understanding, and diverse experience in their mouths, until time came when this was actually on the ballot against the antithesis of all these things, then they didn't like it so they didn't turn out. They would prefer charming old white man.
ErasureAcer
Banned
1. Obama can pardon/commute people in Prison's sentences...he's done some of this with more to come...he should let a shit ton of people out...will he? Who knows. Apparently he could even clear Hillary of any wrongdoing as well for future actions that might come at her once Trump is instated. Apparently Ford did that with Nixon.
2. Aren't his kids taking over everything? I don't think Trump knew what a blind trust was.
3. Good question. But does any of it matter with Pence as VP? He's just as bad if not worse in some areas.
I wish we wouldn't blame Hillary here, and make excuses and do what-if scenarios.
The fact is people are easily swayed by fear, it's a useful tool that we saw implemented successfully after 9/11 to go into Iraq under false pretenses. In this case, the fear of the white voter toward people of different color or to a lesser extent even people of different sexual orientation galvanized that base to come out and vote.
The Dems I think were just so put-off by the election, and didn't think a tyrant like Trump could actually win, so why not just stay home? What's one vote, in the greater scheme of things? And thus, we have this result.
I'm still shaken, I'm still numb, I'm still mad and angry and sad and on the verge of tears.
I live in Maine, though I'm biracial you couldn't tell just by looking at me. For me, this election doesn't effect me in a negative way as far as my rights and freedoms go. And I think that's the problem, that so many white voters just don't care about the rights of people that don't look like them that they voted for Trump because it benefited them and people like them. And that's a problem.
I feel for the Muslim Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the African Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the Hispanics and Latino's in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the LGTB Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
Trump's victory has injected hate into our country en masse, has given that hate a platform and has made that hate seem justified and okay in the minds of bigots. I am struggling to care about my country anymore, I am struggling to feel any sense of patriotism for American anymore. This is no longer my country, this is no longer a country of freedom for all, and it breaks my heart.
The fact is people are easily swayed by fear, it's a useful tool that we saw implemented successfully after 9/11 to go into Iraq under false pretenses. In this case, the fear of the white voter toward people of different color or to a lesser extent even people of different sexual orientation galvanized that base to come out and vote.
The Dems I think were just so put-off by the election, and didn't think a tyrant like Trump could actually win, so why not just stay home? What's one vote, in the greater scheme of things? And thus, we have this result.
I'm still shaken, I'm still numb, I'm still mad and angry and sad and on the verge of tears.
I live in Maine, though I'm biracial you couldn't tell just by looking at me. For me, this election doesn't effect me in a negative way as far as my rights and freedoms go. And I think that's the problem, that so many white voters just don't care about the rights of people that don't look like them that they voted for Trump because it benefited them and people like them. And that's a problem.
I feel for the Muslim Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the African Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the Hispanics and Latino's in this country, who have real and justified fears.
I feel for the LGTB Americans in this country, who have real and justified fears.
Trump's victory has injected hate into our country en masse, has given that hate a platform and has made that hate seem justified and okay in the minds of bigots. I am struggling to care about my country anymore, I am struggling to feel any sense of patriotism for American anymore. This is no longer my country, this is no longer a country of freedom for all, and it breaks my heart.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This is the most liberal loss ever. You couldn't even make it up. Getting so lost in data you lose focus on where you're failing. Assuming your opponent is so awful, mistakes in campaigns are forgiven (they weren't). Going for a huge win by targeting states you have no business winning because you have this in the bag. People not bothering to vote because the candidate doesn't really appeal to them personally. It's like all of the stuff liberals are criticized for doing all wrapped up in one election.
In other news, reading about Mitch McConnell opposing some of Trump's big promises makes me happy. Knowing Trump, this means McConnell is now on Trump's list. I wouldn't even be surprised if Trump threatens to veto EVERYTHING unless McConnell passes his wall, term limits and his infrastructure laws.
I still think the GOP is a weak party, with a lot of in fighting, and ultimately are going to need to adapt and change. This election, despite not at all winning on their own merits and just because Democrats dropped the ball, is going to give them confidence that people actually like their ideas. And when time catches up to them, it won't be a fun time for the GOP.
And really, at its core, the Democrats have no other problem other than turnout. If they can get turnout up, they rule the country. It's the story every single time. Turnout, turnout, turnout. The GOP will vote for literally anyone with an R next to their name. The Democrats will not. We need to fix this.
In other news, reading about Mitch McConnell opposing some of Trump's big promises makes me happy. Knowing Trump, this means McConnell is now on Trump's list. I wouldn't even be surprised if Trump threatens to veto EVERYTHING unless McConnell passes his wall, term limits and his infrastructure laws.
I still think the GOP is a weak party, with a lot of in fighting, and ultimately are going to need to adapt and change. This election, despite not at all winning on their own merits and just because Democrats dropped the ball, is going to give them confidence that people actually like their ideas. And when time catches up to them, it won't be a fun time for the GOP.
And really, at its core, the Democrats have no other problem other than turnout. If they can get turnout up, they rule the country. It's the story every single time. Turnout, turnout, turnout. The GOP will vote for literally anyone with an R next to their name. The Democrats will not. We need to fix this.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
All he had to do was A) Convince dems who didn't like Hillary (of which there were many) to vote for him and/or B) Convince the white rural voter that he understood their issues, which he does a good job of.
Look at the narrow vote deficits in Michigan, Wisconsin, and PA. He would have easily flipped PA, and MI and Wisconsin were close enough to where he would have had the union voters on his side. He'd be president.
Last I checked, she was behind in Arizona by about 60k/70k. Not sure how much of that was Republicans holding their noses and voting for her, but given nationally that was a low number (though from Exit polls that is), it could flip?
Urgh. Not great in any way. The stupid recess rules mean that he can't force Garland through, or do anything else decent, right?
shinra-bansho
Member
Okay. Good luck with that. Keep telling yourself that this is a one off and go into 2020 thinking that they're coming back into the fold without jettisoning anything that represents social progress. Everything will be fine in 2020.
Your experience with lovely rural white people means that they're really great folk despite overwhelmingly voting in someone either explicitly based on or despite clear racism, bigotry, misogyny, the list goes on.
Also Trump has already said he wouldn't have a blind trust.
Your experience with lovely rural white people means that they're really great folk despite overwhelmingly voting in someone either explicitly based on or despite clear racism, bigotry, misogyny, the list goes on.
I think it holds. This is a long time coming. It has been something that people thought was coming. This is just sooner than expected and at the worst possible time.
Also Trump has already said he wouldn't have a blind trust.
Frank the Great
Banned
Biden is likeable. People like him. He is relatable.
That's all that matters. He would have won.
It would not have solved the long term problem in the rust belt though. Dems are kind of fucked going forward.
That's all that matters. He would have won.
It would not have solved the long term problem in the rust belt though. Dems are kind of fucked going forward.
nature boy
Member
Donate money/time to Democratic candidates/ACLU and EFF, they're gonna need them.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Minnesota House stayed Republican and they flipped the Senate too. Pretty bad here. We did kick out the Republican Minority leader who was a dink that didn't want Light Rail going to his suburbs. Minnesotans aren't as smart as I thought they were. I had a great feeling Nolan would win and he did. I am shocked...shocked Jason Lewis won MN-2. The third party candidate didn't help. Our rural conservadems almost lost their races too.
The strategy going forward is to give people shit to vote for. Weed for one. The nation wants it. Getting the conservatives to obviously lose that battle as they'll oppose it is the winning strategy. WEED!
Biden was as likely to turn those people out as Clinton and also would likely have done a better job with traditional Democratic rust belt voters.
I'm not debating that milennials et all suck but knowing what we know, he's better ceteris paribus.
whyamihere
Banned
Yup yup yup.
balladofwindfishes
Member
MI, WI and PA are not gone forever. We can get those back. She barely lost in an election where Dem turnout was historically low. Someone gets a smidge more blacks to turnout and those states are won. Ohio and Iowa might be gone. Too white and they even if we won, those states were trending red.
Arizona, Georgia and NC are potential pick ups. Demographics will continue to shift there. And with higher Dem turnout, those three are all viable pick ups. Hillary did very well in those states, considering how she did in the rest of the country. Florida continues to become more blue. Relative to where Florida usually is compared to the country, it was bluer this year.
We secured Nevada and Virginia this election. Even with how dire this map was, she pulled off Nevada and Virginia. At the lowest possible Dem turnout, we still won those two. So that's two more states in our basket. Demographics will continue to aid us in those states to make them solid.
Minnesota isn't going anywhere.
We need to admit we ran a bad campaign. She made mistakes. She ignored issues because polling looked good. She thought Trump was so terrible, the GOP wouldn't turnout. They did. They voted for him. She apparently didn't apply the same logic to herself. Dems didn't turnout. They didn't like her. We knew this. We ignored it.
metalslimer
Member
The rust belt is probably gone for good now. PA is still a toss up. It's amazing that in the end the Democrats only path now goes through Florida. Georgia, TX, and Arizona aren't ready to flip yet. It looks like we are going to have to try to win a few rust belt states but it's not going to be an easy time.
Targeted messaging will be the key. That, and fucking educating people that an Hispanic house-maid is not going to steal your fucking auto-job. That was fucking technology, you loon! Though, that's also targeted messaging, so...
But, yeah - race and sexuality has fucked things over. Regression to the 50s in terms of social norms (as long as Roe is safe, it won't be too bad?). Lots of people thinking the N word is okay to say, and sexual assault on campus.
Maybe it just needs lots of white men to rape lots of white women in high school and local cafes before the racist/sexist base realises it's eating itself?
I'm still liking my GOTV idea. Unemployment can beat racism, if you can show that the black guy next door is also unemployed. Maybe.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Honestly, the Black Jeopardy sketch is what Dems need.
There is so much overlap between the issues that effect minorities and poor WWC.
There is so much overlap between the issues that effect minorities and poor WWC.
And Planned Parenthood, too. If I were rich, I would legit push money to PP every month, like Patreon. As it is, every time I think I'm going to buy a game in a Steam sale, I'm going to contribute to PP (assuming I can, as a non-US citizen).
For Trump Voters, Uncertainty Mixes With Elation
Fucking dumbass.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Yeah, I'm shifting my budget around a little looking for space for PP donations. Currently poor af, but will be making some more money January-August.
shinra-bansho
Member
If the black guy next door is unemployed, I'm probably a black guy.
But if for whatever reason there's a black guy next door in my white neighbourhood and they're unemployed. They're probably just too lazy to find a job.
Or the Mexicans took it.
The WWC don't want to hear that the black guy or the Latino woman has the same issues as he does. They're competition.
Their progress is the rural white loss.
The Great America that they want to Make Again is a great white dominated America.
They're taking the country back.
This is the story of the election that everyone seems to want to ignore. Hate won.
America is not great because it's good, it's full of awful.
Perhaps I'm being far too cynical. But I think it's warranted.
But if for whatever reason there's a black guy next door in my white neighbourhood and they're unemployed. They're probably just too lazy to find a job.
Or the Mexicans took it.
It doesn't matter.
The WWC don't want to hear that the black guy or the Latino woman has the same issues as he does. They're competition.
Their progress is the rural white loss.
The Great America that they want to Make Again is a great white dominated America.
They're taking the country back.
This is the story of the election that everyone seems to want to ignore. Hate won.
America is not great because it's good, it's full of awful.
Perhaps I'm being far too cynical. But I think it's warranted.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Totally just lol'd at the possible conflict of interest with Bridgegate. Is that all done and dusted, or is there something else to come from it?
Because people that came out in 2008/12 were doing well, knew their precinct wasn't going to "win", and stayed home on election day thinking there's no way a cartoon villain would be president. The deplorables always vote; thus their percentage went way up.
There's probably more nuance in there about Hillary being weak, protest voting, abstainibg, ect as well.
But when you come down to it, if a fraction of the missing Obama coalition showed up on Tuesday in 3-4 key states, we'd be congratulating Madame President
Black Republican
Member
No, I think you're right, I think it's warranted. Brexit parallels are obvious now - WWC don't want social progression, inclusiveness or a better world for their children. They want what they think they're entitled too, they want to grope women when they feel like it, and they only care about women when it's a relation. Oh, and gays are dirty, but lesbian sex is hot (and dirty).
The GOP read a lot of minds when they related sexual assault only to women they know.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked