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[Blader]

Maybe I'm naive but I'm not totally convinced we've lost working-class Rust Belt whites forever, or even for more than a campaign cycle. Reagan had them in the 80s, Bill won them back in the 90s, Bush won them back in 2000, Obama won them back in '08. Is it wrong to assume these are not devoted partisans and they are enough of them who are malleable enough that a Democrat in 2020 or '24 can bring them back into the fold next time?

I think the problem with the Biden fantasy scenarios is that it depends on a completely different primary process. Biden made the decision not to run just a little over a year ago, six months after Hillary had already declared she was running. I don't know that he would've had the resources and campaign infrastructure in place to mount a serious bid, and his early polling numbers at the time did not show him beating Hillary or Bernie (iirc, Obama had been subtly discouraging Biden to run by having aides provide these numbers to Biden).

If Biden announced in early 2015 that he was going to run, maybe Hillary would've sat out, maybe she wouldn't, but Biden would've had plenty of time to build a support network. Given the limited resources he had when he decided against running -- by which point Bernie had a more robust campaign operation going -- I don't know if he could've broken through in the primary, even if maybe he would've won the GE.

 

[shinra-bansho]

You can target them. But you're not going to win them.

This right here. The right candidate and it's a slam dunk.

2020 is going to be such a rude awakening when Trump is re-elected.

I don't think a lot of these things are as conflicting as they appear to be. Hillary Clinton fell into a strange political middle (which she was proud of) that, in the year 2016, did not appeal to as many people as she had hoped. I think it's a lesson for the democrats that people don't really like triangulation as much as the Clinton camp made it sound like they did. Telling a room full of progressive democrats that single payer would "never, ever come to pass" - EVEN IF IT'S TRUE (and I don't think it is) - is bad politicking and literally the least exciting or engaging thing a democratic nominee could do.

You're basically just repeating the be more left bullet point.

And triangulation is part of this post-mortem. Except it's some sort of white farmer Joe targeted triangulation instead.

 

[MoxManiac]

The dems will get the white house back. We've ping ponged between republican and democrat presidents since the 1960s. It's really hard for one party to get that third term in a row. Only Reagan/bush did it in that 50 year time frame.

 

[Y2Kev]

You can target them. But you're not going to win them.

You're basically just repeating the be more left bullet point.

And triangulation is part of this post-mortem. Except it's some sort of white farmer Joe targeted triangulation instead.

You don't have to win them. You just have to not lose them by historic margins. Obama didn't win them; he got destroyed. But less destroyed than Hillary did.

Because a core of his campaign was that he saved the auto industry.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

You can't even blame black people because look at the margins in Philadelphia. The cities delivered.

It's white people.

White people are still 70% of the country. You have to target white people. You can do it without being a legendary racist. But you have to target white people!

And of that 70% 40% have no teeth and own tractors.

It's obvious that dems took the rust-belt for granted. They had been blue for so long that they overlooked the moderate whites that won them those states that didn't like Clinton at all (some may have even voted Trump). This could have maybe been alleviated by devoting more time and resources there but who knows. Either way, the next presidential candidate needs to have far less baggage.

 

[Dierce]

The dems will get the white house back. We've ping ponged between republican and democrat presidents since the 1960s. It's really hard for one party to get that third term in a row. Only Reagan/bush did it in that 50 year time frame.

Since the 70s we've only won because the previous republican government ruined the country. It is as if we are destined to clean up the mess they create and people all of a sudden forget who is responsible for all that went wrong in the first place. Fuck this.

 

[Leninpest]

You can't even blame black people because look at the margins in Philadelphia. The cities delivered.

It's white people.

White people are still 70% of the country. You have to target white people. You can do it without being a legendary racist. But you have to target white people!

And of that 70% 40% have no teeth and own tractors.

One of the worst things that the Clinton campaign did was unleash the narratives that Bernie was running both a sexist and racist campaign. The alienation a lot of progressive democrats felt from that was extremely evident.

Similarly, her "basket of deplorables" comment was actually some of the worst messaging I've ever heard from a presidential candidate. I get that people who like Trump have bad views. I get that. But when you make a broad statement like that, even with the qualification that it's "half" of his supporters, you suddenly alienate 100% of his supporters. No one wants to be talked down to and that's exactly what that looks like. Talk about how his policies are deplorable, talk about how SPECIFIC supporters of his are deplorable (ex: "David Duke is a deplorable"), but don't make a broad statement and expect the same electorate to vote for you in the general.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

I think that's the biggest take away from this. If the numbers in Florida were mirrored accross the country I would say this is a mass rejection on liberal ideals. It's not.. look at the numbers it's a mass rejection of HRC in the rust belt.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

1) Trump had scandals. His base didn't care. His base consists of (amongst other things) bigots, racists, the Klan (David Duke actually said his base helped get Trump elected) and people who think sexual assault is okay. Also women who wear shirts saying "Grope this!"

2) The people who are peddling the "charisma" line should stop and think. Trump is the natural end-point - he is all about the charisma, and none of the policy. He is the anti-Hillary (in so many ways). People should get it through their heads that politics shouldn't be fun and entertainment - it should be about policy. Policy is not fun! Do you think FDR was fun? Roosevelt? What about Angela Merkel?

Start owning those two points. Realise that you're selling the Dem base down the river, by trying to always give them what they want - a charismatic leader - and not what they need, which is strong policies and rights.

Fucking hell, the GOP don't care - they're based around gun rights and outlawing abortion. They could've run an inanimate carbon rod this year, and he would've polled high on the two key pieces of Republican policy.

FDR was charismatic. He gave radio talks to the country and made them feel safe and protected during troubled times. He is a poor example for your point.

FDR is actually a good example for why charisma matters. A disabled wealthy elite from an established political family managed to appeal to the poor and those with no hope for their future and made them feel like it was going to get better.

Trump did exactly the same thing. He's a rich elite from a long standing family, and he managed to appeal to the poor and those with no hope of the future and give them confidence that life will go back to what they remember.

When a rich white lady from a established political family without charisma gets on stage and says that everything is wonderful and we're going to make everything even better than it is right now and you're sitting at home and seeing this making less money than you did 8 years ago with garbage health insurance and no hope for the future, it's just falling on deaf ears. And maybe not even that. It might be outright insulting to them.

 

[Y2Kev]

It's obvious that dems took the rust-belt for granted. They had been blue for so long that they overlooked the moderate whites that won them those states that didn't like Clinton at all (some may have even voted Trump). This could have maybe been alleviated by devoting more time and resources there but who knows. Either way, the next presidential candidate needs to have far less baggage.

It's not a campaigning thing. It's a vision thing. Look at these post mortems that are coming out that show Bill's frustration with their strategy.

She just offered nothing for poor white people. Paid family leave is nice but not when you work for a company that employs 5 people or 10 people and most of them are drivers/laborers/etc.

Now do I condone these poor white people for voting for Trump, a racist, sexist, under qualified bigot? No. But I get why they didn't turn out for Hillary.

 

[sith ewok]

All of this is assuming that politics in general normalizes again. With this large of a division, this much anger and acceleration, can we even assume a normal democratic election in four years time?

Maybe it is just because I am deathly afraid, but I am still having a hard time seeing the republic recover from this. I really am.

 

[Leninpest]

You can target them. But you're not going to win them.
2020 is going to be such a rude awakening when Trump is re-elected.

You're basically just repeating the be more left bullet point.

And triangulation is part of this post-mortem. Except it's some sort of white farmer Joe targeted triangulation instead.

Yeah, I should've clarified that I don't agree with your post-mortem. I don't think "be more right" is a part of the equation at all.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

All of this is assuming that politics in general normalizes again. With this large of a division, this much anger and acceleration, can we even assume a normal democratic election in four years time?

Maybe it is just because I am deathly afraid, but I am still having a hard time seeing the republic recover from this. I really am.

We won the popular vote and lost by 1-2% in rust belt states

Don't freak you guys

 

[royalan]

One of the worst things that the Clinton campaign did was unleash the narratives that Bernie was running both a sexist and racist campaign. The alienation a lot of progressive democrats felt from that was extremely evident.

You got receipts to show for this?

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think "talk to poor disaffected whites" is "be more right." I mean, to some degree focusing on white people (and not saying BLM) is going to make the candidate appear to be more right, and maybe he (he...) actually will be.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Yeah, I should've clarified that I don't agree with your post-mortem. I don't think "be more right" is a part of the equation at all.

It's not my post-mortem. It's just a collection of various ones I've seen in this thread. I don't know yet what the Democratic Party needs to do, because it's probably not some quick reactionary fix that's decided in a day.

 

[Leninpest]

You got receipts to show for this?

Articles like this have existed since the primary.

And things like this:

We're still ignoring the elephant in the room here- a 20% reduction in Democratic participation.

We wouldn't even be discussing the rust belt right now if it even drops 5%.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm not sure there's evidence that progressives were turned off in large number. There's a lot of evidence that moderates living in the rust belt WERE.

 

[Maxim726X]

I think that's the biggest take away from this. If the numbers in Florida were mirrored accross the country I would say this is a mass rejection on liberal ideals. It's not.. look at the numbers it's a mass rejection of HRC in the rust belt.

We're still ignoring the elephant in the room here- a 20% reduction in Democratic participation.

We wouldn't even be discussing the rust belt right now if it even drops 5%.

 

[Nordicus]

Was dropped I believe. And it was a civil suit anyway.

Long after statute of limitations or something.

I truly fear for her mental health right now with the election results.

 

[Barzul]

You can target them. But you're not going to win them.
2020 is going to be such a rude awakening when Trump is re-elected.

You're basically just repeating the be more left bullet point.

And triangulation is part of this post-mortem. Except it's some sort of white farmer Joe targeted triangulation instead.

All you need to do is campaign on the conman premise. If in 4 years a wall has even begun being constructed, he's brought back jobs™ , locked her up etc. Then we have problems.

 

[Leninpest]

I don't think "talk to poor disaffected whites" is "be more right." I mean, to some degree focusing on white people (and not saying BLM) is going to make the candidate appear to be more right, and maybe he (he...) actually will be.

I think a candidate can even say BLM without disaffecting poor whites. You just have to change the scope of the conversation and say why that matters to them, too. It's not impossible, just something that the Clinton campaign didn't try to do.

 

[shinra-bansho]

But, all lives matter. What do you mean black lives matter? There's your response.

 

[Grief.exe]

All of this is assuming that politics in general normalizes again. With this large of a division, this much anger and acceleration, can we even assume a normal democratic election in four years time?

Maybe it is just because I am deathly afraid, but I am still having a hard time seeing the republic recover from this. I really am.

Not to deepen that fear, but I have doubts Trump will cede power as gracefully as Obama.

 

[Pixieking]

FDR was charismatic. He gave radio talks to the country and made them feel safe and protected during troubled times. He is a poor example for your point.

FDR is actually a good example for why charisma matters. A disabled wealthy elite from an established political family managed to appeal to the poor and those with no hope for their future and made them feel like it was going to get better.

Trump did exactly the same thing. He's a rich elite from a long standing family, and he managed to appeal to the poor and those with no hope of the future and give them confidence that life will go back to what they remember.

When a rich white lady from a established political family without charisma gets on stage and says that everything is wonderful and we're going to make everything even better than it is right now and you're sitting at home and seeing this making less money than you did 8 years ago with garbage health insurance and no hope for the future, it's just falling on deaf ears. And maybe not even that. It might be outright insulting to them.

Okay, FDR bad example. But it's the worst kind of illusion people are selling, the charisma thing. It's contributing to lowering the bar, when you say that the policies were fine, we just have to get the right messenger.

Tell me how Trump managed to get the Catholics and the Christians and the Mormons? Was it by charisma, or was it because though it's obvious he doesn't believe in God, has committed adultery and committed crimes that even Jesus would find it hard to forgive, he said all the right things about abortion?

The Dem base can't do this. It can't always wait for someone better, because too many lives depend on it.

We're still ignoring the elephant in the room here- a 20% reduction in Democratic participation.

We wouldn't even be discussing the rust belt right now if it even drops 5%.

This is the issue... Always looking for the best guy to go to the prom with, never realising it's the nerdy looking best friend.

Not to deepen that fear, but I have doubts Trump will cede power as gracefully as Obama.

*cough* Something something Second Amendment people?

 

[Maxim726X]

Don't have to change anything.

Just pick a more likable, charismatic candidate with less baggage.

Sip on champagne.

 

[Wilsongt]

Looks like the US might enter into some unholy partnership with Russia, Syria, and Israel.

Oh boy.

 

[The Technomancer]

Normally I don't think I'd say this, but if there's any legal challenge to Trump's presidency I want Obama to push it. Anything with Russia. Anything with voter suppression. Goddamnit if there's anything credible don't just fucking roll over on this one

 

[benjipwns]

What about holding their own election and declaring that person President of the Democrats.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

We see our huge hi-tech cities roaring with activity, overflowing with money and employment and opportunities. We see economic numbers and employment numbers and wage numbers and think "everything is fine, just look!"

But what we don't understand is that data and numbers don't matter to people living in the mid west making less money and living a worse life than they remember their parents having, or them having decades ago. The booming economic numbers and employment opportunities passed them up, but they don't know why. They see the president and Hillary up there talking about how great everything is going and we need to keep moving that way, but things aren't great for you. Things are great for the people in huge cities. Things are good for them. The economy left you behind though. You don't know why. You find it insulting this rich lady is telling you you're doing fine when you're clearly not doing fine.

These are the people we can appeal to by toning down our liberal elite attitudes a bit. These people want 9-5 jobs they work at and make enough to own a home and have a decent life and have everything be simple and easy. And maybe that will never happen again. But we've made no effort at all to appeal to these people because "The economy is great! Employment is up! Wages are up!" Saying that over and over again and showing them the numbers doesn't matter if they don't notice change in their quality of life.

Were a large number of Trump voters super racist? Absolutely, the majority of his base are gross. But is there a block of people out there who just want honest wages and a good life who didn't really care about Trump's racism, but thought Hillary was a big elite snob? Who voted for Bill, and Obama and could potentially keep voting Dem? Absolutely. I think that voter exists and I still think Democrats can get to them without ignoring minorities. The white working class people who voted for Obama are obviously not racists. We can win them back.

 

[Wilsongt]

Normally I don't think I'd say this, but if there's any legal challenge to Trump's presidency I want Obama to push it. Anything with Russia. Anything with voter suppression. Goddamnit if there's anything credible don't just fucking roll over on this one

If only, but nothing will happen. The spine has been ripped out of common sense people in Washington, the media, and Democrats.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Hint: it's white people in the rust belt

You're good at this.

 

[PBY]

Don't have to change anything.

Just pick a more likable, charismatic candidate with less baggage.

Sip on champagne.

Maybe not take shit for granted and pick the second most disliked candidate in history.


God I'm nuuuuuuumb.

 

[Bronx-Man]

"We need to appeal to racists to win elections again!"

If we ever do this, I am leaving the Democratic Party immediately.

 

[Crocodile]

One of the worst things that the Clinton campaign did was unleash the narratives that Bernie was running both a sexist and racist campaign. The alienation a lot of progressive democrats felt from that was extremely evident.

What didn't happen: What you just said

What did happen: A small but loud minority of Bernie supporters were all too willing to spout diet or overtly racist/sexist things online. I saw a lot happen of this happen on twitter and I saw a lot of it happen on GAF. Irregardless, unless you were someone who was actually doing that, I have no idea why if you supported Bernie you'd get salty because someone else who supported Bernie was getting called out on being an ass. Why would that affect your vote 6 months later? It wasn't even a term coined by any campaign, it just arose organically.

 

[sphagnum]

We see our huge hi-tech cities roaring with activity, overflowing with money and employment and opportunities. We see economic numbers and employment numbers and wage numbers and think "everything is fine, just look!"

But what we don't understand is that data and numbers don't matter to people living in the mid west making less money and living a worse life than they remember their parents having, or them having decades ago. The booming economic numbers and employment opportunities passed them up, but they don't know why. They see the president and Hillary up there talking about how great everything is going and we need to keep moving that way, but things aren't great for you. Things are great for the people in huge cities. Things are good for them. The economy left you behind though. You don't know why. You find it insulting this rich lady is telling you you're doing fine when you're clearly not doing fine.

These are the people we can appeal to by toning down our liberal elite attitudes a bit. These people want 9-5 jobs they work at and make enough to own a home and have a decent life and have everything be simple and easy. And maybe that will never happen again. But we've made no effort at all to appeal to these people because "The economy is great! Employment is up! Wages are up!"

Been trying to say this for years but liberals kept putting their fingers in their ears screaming I CAN'T HEAR YOU THE DOWNSIDES TO FREE TRADE AND AUTOMATION DON'T MATTER ENOUGH.

Keep technocrats as advisers, don't let them be candidates.

 

[Nordicus]

*cough* Something something Second Amendment people?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

 

[Y2Kev]

"We need to appeal to racists to win elections again!"

If we ever do this, I am leaving the Democratic Party immediately.

Ok let's ignore everyone who voted for Trump and pretend they are all racists. All of them. I think there's an argument that this is actually true.

That still doesn't explain the participation rate with Democrats. And it's not because we didn't appeal to racists. It's because we didn't appeal to them at all!

Why are people fighting this notion so much? I am a liberal that works for a bank and lives in a city. I have never ever considered not having health insurance and I don't even know what I pay for it. I have more computers in my apartment than I have rooms. I go to the dentist twice a year. I own more suits than there are days of the week. This is not bragging-- this is me saying that appealing to these people is the LAST thing I want to do. We have nothing in common. Nothing they care about is important to me at all. But, that said, I realize now they're a big voting block and we have to try. If we don't try, we won't win. Ever! Well at least for like another 50 years.

 

[kadotsu]

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

They might after entitlement reform.

Spoiler

Like that would ever happen

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

You think they are going to vote for R again after 4 years of deregulation and no jobs? Things will get worse for them.

 

[Incognito]

Still trying to navigate through the smoldering wreckage. Just so pissed man. Utterly dejected.

Visiting California during Thanksgiving so the fiancee and I could visit some potential places to move as we were gonna sign her up for ACA. Same for our visits to Duke Transplant and Chapel Hill which have been great and the folks at Duke have treated us with exceptional care. Now, we're in flux. North Carolina is a definite no-go now, and California is wait and see. Just too much uncertainty regarding the ACA to put her in a position where she could be without insurance. Currently she has a job she hates but the health insurance is OK. But she's the only person she knows of with her disease and transplant that works. It's dragging her down.

I'm just really, really upset. Like, it's starting to hit her too. Yesterday she was like, "well at least this isn't Ukraine." But today she's more forlorn. We also recognize that at worst, we still have our insurance and that for many others, the crippling if not outright repeal (unlikely) of ACA is literally life and death for millions. It's overwhelmingly sad. Now more than ever Democrats in the Senate need to stand up for us and all the others whose life hangs in the balance. The next two years will be critical.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Maybe not take shit for granted and pick the second most disliked candidate in history.


God I'm nuuuuuuumb.

The liberal bubble needed to be popped and it was. We were too confident we were invincible, and now we've been humbled. We need to make sure we don't gamble on candidates like Hillary just because we really like her. No matter who our opponent is.

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

If things get worse or don't change? Absolutely. These people have voted Dem before and they will again. They're desperate to try anything to go back to what they think is "normal"

 

[Wilsongt]

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

Shhh don't tell that to people.
Let people stay in their bubble of ignorance that millions of jobs will magically appear in a period of low taxes for corporations, record high profits, increased productivity, and a shrinking desire to hire and train new employees.

OH YEAH

tomorrow is veterns day! The day we celebrate the men and women who protected people's right to vote in a racist, xenophobic, ignorant basic bitch pumpkin spice latte for president and his anti-LGBT vice president!!

 

[benjipwns]

Ok let's ignore everyone who voted for Trump and pretend they are all racists. All of them. I think there's an argument that this is actually true.

That still doesn't explain the participation rate with Democrats. And it's not because we didn't appeal to racists. It's because we didn't appeal to them at all!

Have we tried calling those Democrats racists?

 

[sphagnum]

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

Whose fault is that?

Spoiler

Capitalists

 

[Pixieking]

Were a large number of Trump voters super racist? Absolutely, the majority of his base are gross. But is there a block of people out there who just want honest wages and a good life who didn't really care about Trump's racism, but thought Hillary was a big elite snob? Who voted for Bill, and Obama and could potentially keep voting Dem? Absolutely. I think that voter exists and I still think Democrats can get to them without ignoring minorities. The white working class people who voted for Obama are obviously not racists. We can win them back.

But they need to know

1) How bad Trump and his policies are for them and their family/friends, and how the GOP won't help. If they're lifelong Dems who switched in 2016 then they need to know that the Dems will listen, and get them to switch back. Before the midterms (even if not really relevant) would be a good point to send out feelers and start listening to responses/concerns. Targeted messages about retraining and drug overdoses need to be pushed out.

2) They need to know that they're not part of the Deplorables. Even if they are, they need to be made to feel welcome. Diet racists who can stomach the Dems if they get them into work, or deal with all the heroin.

Those jobs aren't coming back, though.

So, those votes aren't either.

Depends upon the voters, this does. A 30 year old can be retrained, a 65 year old can't. But that 65 year old may have a daughter who overdosed on heroin whilst Trump was in power, and he'll be mightily disaffected. I think it's going to become a data game, just with WWC and rural voters.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Anybody who needs inspiration, just go read Lin-Manuel Miranda's feed from yesterday.

Lin-Manuel MirandaVerified account
‏@Lin_Manuel Lin-Manuel Miranda Retweeted Monica Wright
F*ck that.
I love this country, and there's more work to do than ever.
(No offense Canada)

Lin-Manuel Miranda ‏@Lin_Manuel Nov 8
Gnight.
I have to go to sleep guys.
I love you.
Tomorrow there'll be more of us.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ok let's ignore everyone who voted for Trump and pretend they are all racists. All of them. I think there's an argument that this is actually true.

That still doesn't explain the participation rate with Democrats. And it's not because we didn't appeal to racists. It's because we didn't appeal to them at all!

Why are people fighting this notion so much? I am a liberal that works for a bank and lives in a city. I have never ever considered not having health insurance and I don't even know what I pay for it. I have more computers in my apartment than I have rooms. I go to the dentist twice a year. I own more suits than there are days of the week. This is not bragging-- this is me saying that appealing to these people is the LAST thing I want to do. We have nothing in common. Nothing they care about is important to me at all. But, that said, I realize now they're a big voting block and we have to try. If we don't try, we won't win. Ever! Well at least for like another 50 years.

Yes.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

So now I have seen video of kids chanting "build the wall" at Latino students and heard substantially more reports of people being bullied, and seen pics of Nazi graffiti in Philly.

What I hoped was just anecdotal among a couple of fb friends turns out to be a trend. Some people are taking the election win as an endorsement to be openly racist.

You own this, GOP, you had damn well better address it. Or I won't hesitate to attach this to anybody who supports the GOP. I know lots of people who vote conservative for good reasons, but if they support a party that won't address open racism in its own ranks, then I will hold them to that.