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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Goodstyle

Member
Also, genuine question. Everyone thinks Booker would be doomed to failure because he's too establishment, right?

What a difference 8 years can make. Everyone had him pinned as Obama 2.

Booker is also unmarried, not dating anyone, and has been surrounded by gay rumours about a decade. People underestimate how bad that would be for a presidential candidate, in a country that is OK with giving Trump the nuclear codes.
 
That's where Bernie had it right. He was a nationalist populist candidate just like trump but he didn't denigrate minorities. The thing is, Bernie didn't denigrate minorities but he also did not reach out to them like Hillary did in the primaries so he lost the south and the south matters in the primaries even its useless for dems in the general.

Sanders was never going to win the nomination unless he managed to rally significant numbers of minority voters to his side. He waited too long to try. I stand by my hypothesis that he just didn't think he was going to get as far as he did.
 
When you keep calling those states a firewall yeah youre gonna take it for granted.

Man. What a fuck up. Clinton really wanted the prize without the work. Yes she reached out to women and minorities but the fact is that they werent important to this election. The white working class was. And she fucked up.

This is on her. She fucked up. Fuck her.

I'm sorry, were you warning us that we shouldn't have been taking Wisconsin for granted?

It was based on all the polls saying it was a lock, so we were focusing money on places the polls suggested were more competitive.

It's not Clinton's fault that all the polls were wrong. Yes with hindsight we can see that we need to fix polls, and do more to try and win over rural America.

But wanting a pound of flesh, and to kick Clinton when she lost... that does fuck all to help us.

I get that you are just trying to make yourself feel better, but the in fighting between people who want to see the same agenda by and large brought forwards has to stop. Yes some of us picked Clinton *because we thought it was the best way forwards for that agenda*.

But I can overlook anything bad you said about Clinton potentially hurting her in the race, if you can overlook that I supported someone who clearly wasn't popular enough.

Stick a fork in the primaries already. We lost those states because we had what we thought was solid data saying they were in the bag. The complacency you want to blame Clinton for, was because everything was telling her she didn't need to worry about those states.

Were you telling her otherwise? No? Then lets move forwards already.

No DNC politician in office or in the public eye right now has anything close to three decades of baggage like Clinton did. We can't pick a candidate like her next time around, so stop telling us we were wrong to pick a candidate like her this time around.

Unless you've got a time machine.
 

Debirudog

Member
we essentially didn't listen to the rural whites because we hate them for their stupidity and selfishness. But unfortunately, we really had no choice but to somehow promise them something good eventhough it's difficult not to seperate the fact that a shit ton of them had deplorable views.
 
Benji getting banned for being a pain-in-the-ass is a bit harsh even if he's been getting on my nerves the last two days.

But he'll probably be back soon so whatever.
 
I mean she did work, like come on....

She just as it turns out worked in the wrong places...

And minorities and women weren't important?


Jesus christ....

That's fucking gross...

I'm starting to think "don't be taken for granted" people have a point. Man, if voting by mail wasn't around(and wasn't used heavily by conservatives) then I probably wouldn't turnout to vote in the future if this is going to be what white liberals push.
 

pigeon

Banned
Okay, here's my fucking hot election take for all y'all:

Hillary Clinton was an excellent candidate who ran a strong campaign.

She faced a Russian intelligence operation unlike anything we've ever seen, unprecedented in the level of interference in the American election we allowed, that spent a year exposing literally all of her personal and professional information, with the complicit aid of ostensible left-wingers who gladly lent their plausible deniability to a smear campaign.

She faced an explicit effort by the FBI to destroy her by mainstreaming nationalist white-wing (this was a typo but I'm keeping it) smears and making them the basis of meaningless but lengthy formal investigations, including what I would consider a deliberate violation of the Hatch Act (not necessarily by Comey, but by others in the FBI who Comey was trying unsuccessfully to control).

She faced five years of an elaborate Republican smear campaign designed to create scandals out of nowhere, building meaningless choices and real tragedies into stories that took over the media.

She faced a media desperately eager to normalize white nationalism so as to avoid admitting America's original sin, who literally hired people from her opponent's campaign to talk on television because their normal paid shills wouldn't do the job, who seized like a dying man on any scrap of negative news for her to try to preserve the dollars they receive from racists.

And she still won the popular vote and got within 1% in three states of winning the presidency.

I'd like to see your white socialist do that.

I am unconvinced that any other candidate could have won in the face of that much deliberate aggression from multiple different state apparatuses and from the ostensibly neutral arbiters of the race.

Hillary didn't fail. America failed her.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Rory Panagotopulos ‏@RoryPan 2h2 hours ago

Psssst. If every Hillary voter donates $10 a year to planned parenthood, that covers it's $528 mil. federal budget
.

It won't save Roe, but it will save the organisation that does a lot of abortions (and non-abortion work, too).

Related:

Is it worth turning to private companies to fund PP? Apple/Valve/EA etc? I'm debating randomly emailing Gabe Newell and going "This organisation needs to be saved, help it!" But I also feel a bit dumb, maybe?
 

Goodstyle

Member
Why do people think Trump's anti-establishment crowd will care about his Cabinet people? Doesn't the Trump base love those guys? Who cares if the media goes all in on him over this?
 
Of all the things troubling me right now, there's one that people seem to have a really hard time talking about, so I want to discuss it out in the open and without derision or further obstacles to understanding. So here it is:

I don't think blue collar white people should get a pass on letting a Trump presidency happen, and I think acting like they don't understand the implications of what will happen is selling them short. Every voting-eligible American made a choice in 2016 (yes, not voting is also a choice), and tacitly or explicitly we have steered ourselves in this direction.

I don't think anyone should get a pass on this just because they've had it rough or because they don't usually participate in electoral representation. My family has lived in rural Appalachia for as long as small towns have existed there. I know these people. Am I supposed to pretend like working class Americans are too simple to understand what's going on? I don't believe it, and if you're so concerned about insulting them, don't insult their intelligence either.

Blue collar workers are smart people, and good people too, but they've been swindled just like millions of others have been swindled. It's okay, we can address this with civility. Trust me, there is plenty of fair blame to go around for the situation we're in, and it's okay to talk about it. We HAVE to talk about it. The polarization that's happening in America is a disease, and we cannot retreat into our corners and pretend our own problems are the only problems. To quote a friend of mine, people have started backing their horses on issues before they even know anything about them.

I understand what kind of vice-like cultural anxiety is gripping some small towns. I'm not trying to be insensitive, and honestly this has everything to do with empathy. Part of being a responsible adult is weighing the consequences of complex choices, even if you don't like any of the choices you're seeing.

Through our actions or inactions, we all hold some degree of personal responsibility for this mess, and that culpability cannot be ignored or shifted. We can't sweep this under the rug or sheepishly choose which consequences to address. Stare this in the face and look at it for what it is. Whether you played a part or not, millions of people are likely to harmed by this path we’re headed down. Yes, our country did just elect a President who says his SCOTUS nominee may overturn Roe v. Wade. Yes, our country did just elect a Vice President who announced a plan to roll back LGBT rights. Millions of Americans are about to be considered a little less human by our government, and I refuse to turn a blind eye to it.

If you’re okay with a large-scale scapegoating of everyone who is different from you, then own it, because passive acceptance is the same thing. Address this situation wholesale, because it’s not just yours, it’s everyone’s. We can’t pass the buck on what’s happening, and we can’t just sit back pretend it’s not so bad. This situation is extremely fucked up, and the more we talk about it, the better.
 
I can't even blame Mook, who is a good guy. Mook "ignoring" Bill Clinton doesn't seem like a fair characteristic to me. Bill Clinton has direct access to his wife. The problem is that Hillary Clinton tunes out what she doesn't want to hear, and her loyalists follow suit. I don't believe Mook was deep enough in the circle to be blamed for this. If it's true Bill was tuned out, that's on Hillary not Mook.

I don't know if Bill spoke with Obama about this, he probably talked to Biden about it. Probably talked to Sanders about it. This is a failure of hubris and stupidity. And I fear that it will birth voices in the party who say "why the fuck are we catering to blacks/Hispanics again?"

This is where I hope to god Obama gets involved at the DNC in some way, behind the scenes. The Clintons are done, it's over for them forever. But knives will be out for the Obama coalition too, not just the Clinton camp. It's time to get Clinton loyalists the fuck out of there. Get Donna Brazille the fuck out of there.

And yes...bring in Sanders. Not as DNC chair obviously, but I want his people to have more influence. And now that the Clintons are gone let's repair relations with California democrats. Bring in Jerry Brown. A lot of voices need to be involved, not just an echo chamber that revolves around one woman.
 

Angry Fork

Member
Sanders was never going to win the nomination unless he managed to rally significant numbers of minority voters to his side. He waited too long to try. I stand by my hypothesis that he just didn't think he was going to get as far as he did.

The sanders campaign definitely didn't think they'd get so far imo, so they made mistakes in the beginning by not hitting the ground running on everything they could against Clinton. There's also evidence that much of the reason blacks/hispanics weren't into Sanders as much (although he made up some ground in the end with younger ones) is name recognition. Black people know and like the Clintons, but for reasons I don't understand given their record in the 90s.

That being said every major force within the DNC already had their lot with Clinton from the beginning because they wanted this to be a coronation, it was "her turn", and all that dumb shit. They did all they could to make things worse for Sanders and his people.
 
i think looking for a white knight just two days after snatching defeat through the jaws of victory is shortsighted. just get back to basics, man. focus on the issues and groups that brought you to the dance. it's becoming painfully clear that team HRC simply took voters in the upper midwest and great lakes region for granted. thats unacceptable and it really shouldnt be suprising that these same people responded in kind. obviously HRC herself didnt help, but dont assume anything about having voters in the bag. i mean, people that voted for BHO when unemployment was at 8.0% and supported his reelection despite 4 years of negative coverage decided they'd rather give trump a chance. how could the clinton team so misread this? fucking hell im furious.
 

Goodstyle

Member
Okay, here's my fucking hot election take for all y'all:

Hillary Clinton was an excellent candidate who ran a strong campaign.

She faced a Russian intelligence operation unlike anything we've ever seen, unprecedented in the level of interference in the American election we allowed, that spent a year exposing literally all of her personal and professional information, with the complicit aid of ostensible left-wingers who gladly lent their plausible deniability to a smear campaign.

She faced an explicit effort by the FBI to destroy her by mainstreaming nationalist white-wing (this was a typo but I'm keeping it) smears and making them the basis of meaningless but lengthy formal investigations, including what I would consider a deliberate violation of the Hatch Act (not necessarily by Comey, but by others in the FBI who Comey was trying unsuccessfully to control).

She faced five years of an elaborate Republican smear campaign designed to create scandals out of nowhere, building meaningless choices and real tragedies into stories that took over the media.

She faced a media desperately eager to normalize white nationalism so as to avoid admitting America's original sin, who literally hired people from her opponent's campaign to talk on television because their normal paid shills wouldn't do the job, who seized like a dying man on any scrap of negative news for her to try to preserve the dollars they receive from racists.

And she still won the popular vote and got within 1% in three states of winning the presidency.

I'd like to see your white socialist do that.

I am unconvinced that any other candidate could have won in the face of that much deliberate aggression from multiple different state apparatuses and from the ostensibly neutral arbiters of the race.

Hillary didn't fail. America failed her.

I don't think Bernie would have done as well ya, but there's no way Biden would have lost this one. No chance in hell.

As for your last statement, I sorta agree in a way. The fact that America chose Trump over Hillary seems like more of an indictment on the American people than Hillary herself. We watched this man stoke up racial resentment to get votes, and then we heard him brag about sexually assaulting women, followed by several women confirming what we all heard him say in that tape. The fact that White America heard that and said "this is fine" is fucking embarrassing. The fact that Dems saw this threat and stayed home is also fucking embarrassing.
 

Sibylus

Banned
Collecting my half-formed thoughts into where my (evolving) understanding of the situation is:

What Happened
  • Over-reliance on Polls and its corollary: ignoring human canaries indicating that the situation on the ground didn't match (Bernie, Bill, Warren, Trump himself).
  • Taking Dem turnout for granted in numerous demographics.
  • Taking "safe" states for granted and aiming too narrowly in electoral strategy.
  • Underestimating populist anger and tendency for significant numbers of "safe" demographics to be pulled across by that wave.
  • Air of inevitability and historical destiny surrounding the candidate that ultimately turns people off.
  • Lack of a cohesive, consistent synthesis of her wide-ranging policy aims.
  • Profound failure of the Fifth Estate
  • Profound failure of the FBI and its aggressive politicization
  • Profoundly successful foreign intelligence operation

Where From Here?
  • Bottom-up, not Top-down: Targeting the Presidency with such single-minded zeal isn't working. Bottom-up from Congress, the Senate, and smaller races need much more of a focus. We're consistently, criminally underrating the power of the bottom. Obama was hamstrung for most of his two terms and a Clinton squeaker presidency would have been no different. Top-down is a strategy to not lose, rather than a strategy to win. We need to push small everywhere possible.
  • New Blood: Overdue. We bet it all on the old guard and conventional wisdom so as not to lose, and we lost.
  • 50 States: Nobody's laughing about Trump and his campaign spending in unorthodox places anymore. He pulled significant numbers of votes from everywhere.
  • Skepticism: We approached polling with undue deference and not nearly enough skepticism. We confirmed our hopes and missed what was happening on the ground. We need to be much more sober about this going forward, and we need to remind ourselves that this is a fuzzy social science with errors everywhere threatening to eat conclusions whole. Further, we need to broaden the scope of our intake and predict outcomes with multiple, independent methodologies. We can't rely on voting intentions in a vacuum.
  • Obstruction & Litigation: It's time. Every legislative and procedural wrench we have straight into the works when Trump makes his push on human and civil rights. If we're meek and conciliatory when these roll onto the block, everyone loses and the vulnerable will suffer worst. Not one step back.
  • Antifa Coalition: We need to pull people from all walks possible to resist the ascendant fascism at work through the Presidency. Dem Congress and Senate can't do much here because they're beholden to trying to keep the political apparatus intact; this is on the grassroots and local communities to start. Most promising bridges to build? BLM, vulnerable minorities, socialists, libertarians, and especially the people on the streets right now.
 
More white Evangelicals picked Trump than any other candidate in history.

White Evangelicals have decided that their ultimate candidate was a man who sexually assaulted 12 women, raped his wife, stole money from the middle class, had constant affairs, and paid his mistresses for their abortions.

And Trump said he has never asked God for forgiveness in his entire life.

The media should be destroying white evangelicals right now, but.... no one cares.

There should be no greater mobilizing force for atheists against religion than white evangelicals making Trump the president. This has to be the moment.

Antifa Coalition: We need to pull people from all walks possible to resist the ascendant fascism at work through the Presidency. Dem Congress and Senate can't do much here because they're beholden to trying to keep the political apparatus intact; this is on the grassroots and local communities to start. Most promising bridges to build? BLM, vulnerable minorities, socialists, libertarians, and especially the people on the streets right now.

ANTIFA has no interest in doing anything productive. BLM and other groups are not remotely comparable to guys to firebomb political offices.
 

pigeon

Banned
ehhhh

If he doesn't start giving the middle class their factory jobs back and we go into a recession because of massive spending (both of which are likely) Trump will lose support.

This would be true if Trump won because he was an economic genius.

But he didn't.

He won because he was a white nationalist. He campaigned on that. Now that he's elected, he will put a white nationalist agenda into place. He can mostly do that without Congress.

So he won't lose support. He's doing what his voters want.
 

Maddness

Member
This whole thing has been so crazy. So depressing. I talked to my mom and found out that an Aunt of mine who has a gay son-in-law and a daughter who's in a mixed race marriage and has a child also voted for Trump. So did the daughter and the husband. The gay son-in-law and his partner are furious. She (the Aunt) and the daughter have voted Democratic for as long as I remember. What the fuck is happening?
 

Maxim726X

Member
Who's pushing for McAuliffe?

I cannot imagine the DNC's lesson from this election being to put up a Clinton ally for president. That does seem like a typically DNC thing to do, though.



Can we stop letting the disappointment of Tuesday night pivot into total revisionism? She put in a ton of work. It was a mistake to ignore WWC voters in the Rust Belt, and they were operating off bad data that convinced them they didn't need they segment of the electorate. But as much as she dislikes campaigning, she fucking campaigned hard for a year and a half.

The problem, ultimately, goes back to Hillary Clinton being Hillary Clinton. It's not fair, and it's ridiculous, but at the end of the day, no amount of Rust Belt campaign rallies were going to make people who've always had negative impressions her of stop having negative impressions of her. Her unfavorables are baked in too strongly. Our mistake was thinking that Trump's higher unfavorables would outweigh that. They almost did, but not enough.

Again, it wasn't bad data. She was right.

However her run couldn't survive the low turnout. If she had anything close to 2012's numbers she would have run away with the election.
 
This whole thing has been so crazy. So depressing. I talked to my mom and found out that an Aunt of mine who has a gay son-in-law and a daughter who's in a mixed race marriage and has a child also voted for Trump. So did the daughter and the husband. The gay son-in-law and his partner are furious. She (the Aunt) and the daughter have voted Democratic for as long as I remember. What the fuck is happening?

Anti establishment was a strong message amongst other things. And it was a case where they were empowered when ridiculed.
 
I can't even blame Mook, who is a good guy. Mook "ignoring" Bill Clinton doesn't seem like a fair characteristic to me. Bill Clinton has direct access to his wife. The problem is that Hillary Clinton tunes out what she doesn't want to hear, and her loyalists follow suit. I don't believe Mook was deep enough in the circle to be blamed for this. If it's true Bill was tuned out, that's on Hillary not Mook.

I don't know if Bill spoke with Obama about this, he probably talked to Biden about it. Probably talked to Sanders about it. This is a failure of hubris and stupidity. And I fear that it will birth voices in the party who say "why the fuck are we catering to blacks/Hispanics again?"

This is where I hope to god Obama gets involved at the DNC in some way, behind the scenes. The Clintons are done, it's over for them forever. But knives will be out for the Obama coalition too, not just the Clinton camp. It's time to get Clinton loyalists the fuck out of there. Get Donna Brazille the fuck out of there.

And yes...bring in Sanders. Not as DNC chair obviously, but I want his people to have more influence. And now that the Clintons are gone let's repair relations with California democrats. Bring in Jerry Brown. A lot of voices need to be involved, not just an echo chamber that revolves around one woman.

I agree. It pains me that net result might be the breakup of the Obama coalition. If they go down that route Trump is guaranteed reelection
 

pigeon

Banned
I agree, and that's what a lot of us were trying to say earlier in the primaries, but we got dog piled because having empathy - NOT SYMPATHY - is apparently a bad thing now.

For the record, I have always argued that we need to put policies into place that help white rural Americans because they're genuinely suffering.

What I objected to, every time, was the framing that it's not their fault they're racist because we haven't put those policies into place.

White rural Americans have been white nationalists since the founding of America. Blaming globalism is a way of deflecting responsibility from your friends and family for their moral choice to support white nationalism.

Also, I changed my mind. White rural Americans want to kill us. I no longer support policies that will help them. They can fight for them on their own.
 

Sibylus

Banned
More white Evangelicals picked Trump than any other candidate in history.

White Evangelicals have decided that their ultimate candidate was a man who sexually assaulted 12 women, raped his wife, stole money from the middle class, had constant affairs, and paid his mistresses for their abortions.

And Trump said he has never asked God for forgiveness in his entire life.

The media should be destroying white evangelicals right now, but.... no one cares.

There should be no greater mobilizing force for atheists against religion than white evangelicals making Trump the president. This has to be the moment.



ANTIFA has no interest in doing anything productive. BLM and other groups are not remotely comparable to guys to firebomb political offices.

I think there's a hell of a gulf between protests and firebombing political offices. Every action in proportion.
 
There should be lots of protests, sure and those people should be inspired to vote and run for office.

But I just personally dislike ANTIFA and don't like that group being compared to BLM.
 

pigeon

Banned
You mean the group of people who would be responsible for the next president?

You should hope they show up next time.

Why? If what you're saying is true, they elected Donald Trump.

Those people are not my allies. They endangered my life and the life of my daughter. Why would I want them to show up?

Personally, I give more credit to many white liberals than that. I think that most of them worked to oppose Donald Trump. The problem is right now, when they have decided, just like the other white people in America, that the lives of people of color are not as important as their economic policy concerns.

Hopefully it is clear why I will not condone or forgive that.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
What they need to do is not run someone everyone hates next time
 

sphagnum

Banned
For the record, I have always argued that we need to put policies into place that help white rural Americans because they're genuinely suffering.

What I objected to, every time, was the framing that it's not their fault they're racist because we haven't put those policies into place.

White rural Americans have been white nationalists since the founding of America. Blaming globalism is a way of deflecting responsibility from your friends and family for their moral choice to support white nationalism.

Also, I changed my mind. White rural Americans want to kill us. I no longer support policies that will help them. They can fight for them on their own.

I just look at the fact that enough of them in the Rust Belt voted for Obama, which means there must be a bunch of fickle minded WWC who are diet racists and not heavy into white nationalism. I think they can still be swayed.

But this fight is definitely one for the white community to sort out.
 
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