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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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I'm sorry to break it to you, but Obama had as much backing of the establishment back then as Clinton, Heck a lot of the party had pushed bill aside until Obama went and brought back into the fold for his coalition.

Bernie was never given a chance. There was no reasoning with the Party, it was her turn and they were with her.
Please. Bernie had all types of chances over every year he's been in the government. No one forced him to just jump in completely blind and for him to start with those disadvantages or have them at all. That was on him, and him alone. He could have been putting in the work for years before hand, making ties across the country and winning people over to set up a Presidential run beforehand and actually get people on his side, the work that we're criticizing Clinton for not doing. He just expected to be able to jump in and be handed the thing on a silver platter without doing the work, which is ironic considering people's complains about Clinton.

And let's not forget about the numerous advantages Sanders had in the primaries as well, namely caucus states, wholly undemocratic institutions that favor particular groups like college kids who have nothing better to do than standing in a crowded room all day while disenfranchising those that don't. Just look at the difference between the results in North Dakota and South Dakota, which have very similar demographics and everything but one was a caucus and one was a primary, and which candidate won which one? And look at the difference between the Washington state caucus, which was used to distribute its delegates, and it's non-binding primary: again, the one where it's actually easier for people to vote and more people were able to vote had a very different message than the caucus, yet we're supposed to hold that one up as the will of the people or whatever anyway?

Frankly, everything about this is disgusting. People voted for Clinton. Like, 3 million more of 'em. People wanted Clinton and they those her loud and clear. Stop disenfranchising people and acting like people didn't actually vote for her and that she didn't earn their votes by putting in the work to win them over decades.

Sanders don't like that? Maybe he should have been putting in the work and earning peoples votes instead of sitting in Vermont all those years and living in a bubble and telling people in areas like Sierra Blanca to go fuck themselves? Sound familiar, the same thing we're railing against Clinton for taking it for granted? But yet Sanders is the one who's supposed to be handed all that on a silver platter and that's alright despite the chances he had to do the work, while we at the same time rail at Clinton for taking Wisconsin or whatever for granted instead of putting in the work there and seeing the signs? What a joke. What a joke.

People voted for Clinton. She won fair and square. Sanders don't like it? Maybe he should have put in the work instead of just expecting to be "coronated" and treating that work as unimportant, and actually set up for and prepare for his run if he really expected to win the way she did. Or does that only go one way? And do the advantages that Sanders did have, such as undemocratic caucus state not matter either?

What a joke everything about this is. Whining about Clinton and the DNC treating this thing as a "coronation" despite Clinton putting in work over years to win those votes and respecting what people chose even if you disagree, and then at the same time basically acting like Sanders should have been coronated despite the same criticism being easy to lobby at him in how he too could have easily seen what was coming and put in the work beforehand, but decided not to and just jump in anyway!

I don't get this, I just don't get it....
 

pigeon

Banned
Pigeon, I like you and I feel sorry for you, but why post if this is your contribution?

Hopefully the last few pages of discussion clarify why I posted this.

It's often difficult to tell whether the people talking about Bernie are just absorbed by their own loss and disinterested in other people's losses or whether they're actively advocating for ditching people of color.

But it's definitely one of them!
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I agree the elite vs. non-elite framing is a little off, but I think you're looking at this too one dimensionally. I think the argument should be insider vs. outsider. Trump is a credible outsider because the elite actually publicly reject him. Hillary is an insider. Bernie is not a credible outsider to me but he managed to sell himself as one, no doubt in no small part because he was running against the definition of an insider.

Bernie has some characteristics that fit the mold...namely that he was not really ever in charge of party machinery, nor was he clearly in the party...but it's hard for me to understand a career politician as a political outsider. But perception is reality.

Regarding relitigating the primary, what 2016 demonstrated was that you can't win the democratic nomination without minority support. It happened in 2008 and it happened in 2016. I don't care if Dumbie Washedupman Shitz was jumping up and down on the scale (forget putting her finger on it), there was no overcoming the early March sweep through the south...and there never WILL be. Now if you want to talk about putting swing state contests up earlier in the primary, there's something I'd be interested in.

I think this is a salient point.

Michigan/WI, Florida, Virginia and Ohio should be the first four states to vote.

Virginia and Michigan are on two different fronts of the "should go blue but might not" front.

Florida and Ohio are two very different swing states that need to be a priority to win.

I think the DNC *must* recruit 4-5 legitimate contenders every cycle and any attempts to harangue people into not running need to be stifled.

We need to expose clearly which of our candidates can hit the base that we need to hit to win. States that don't represent the entire party can no longer be given such prominent positions and we need to truly suss out how the party voters feel about a candidate and not try and package someone.

I'm a huge fan of Hillary, and she should have won. But she clearly did not appeal to suburban or rural WWC voters, and we should have done something to course correct. Go out to that part of the country more and ensure you have shorn up the leakiest part of your base instead of trying to turn out more of who you are already winning alone (the latter is critical, but is not enough clearly).

Hell, maybe she wouldn't have survived a Biden or Warren running against her.
 
Is the NYT going to look at the exit polls again and try to make them more accurate like in 2012? I really doubt more people between the ages of 18-29 voted than 65+.

No, they will look at actual voting data.

Nate Cohn has always said that Exit Polls in both 2008/2012 were wrong. He was one of the first ones to highlight that there are more white voters than estimated.
 
Trump isn't going to last 4 years, or he will just act as a figure head while everyone else does his job.

He is not realizing how deep he dug himself in. The generals will probably freak him out
the most when it comes to military matters

what a waste.

Americans passed up Hillary to have a wasted 4 years with a man who doesn't want the job anymore
 

Drakeon

Member
If they really want to go 100% populist outsider Michael Moore is the way to go. He can play the no fact game as well as anyone and he has a white penis.
Lol, Michael Moore will win exactly 0 independent voters. That's a terrible idea. Jon Stewart would be better.
 

BiggNife

Member
I do wonder what the hell happens to polling and prediction models in four years

I think 538 will still exist because they were the most accurate, but I'm guessing Sam Wang retires. He was only doing this as a hobby anyway.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Why? Trump's votes were mostly stable, Clinton lost 6M Obama votes. And from the looks of things, minorities didn't turn out for her as much, which is understandable, and white rural voters in the rust belt hated her. While I agree that those rust belt voters are implicit with white nationalism and deserve some of the blame, I think many of them would've been fine with a Dem candidate that wasn't Hillary. She had too many scandals, the stench of the establishment, and never did rallies in WI for instance to show those rural voters that she cared about them. Both of those issues are fixable. This isn't some dramatic shift to the right that we're seeing, this is just the left not being inspired to come out to vote. A better candidate fixes that. The question is, do the Dems have that better candidate?

Not sure which part is being responded to, the Democrats lose and are having the typical infighting of a losing party part of the "voters actually shifted instead of just not voting" part?
 
Making it about policy probably also wouldn't have worked. You just have to have someone likable to sell a simple message. Obama's hope and change in 2008 was the MAGA of his time. That's really all it is.

Charisma, personality, and a simple message (true or not)
 

Barzul

Member
My only issue with this scenario is that he will delegate almost everything to Pence and will exclusively rely on Ryan on how to govern. But then he will take credit for it all, like he does with charities.

But that's the thing. He's fucked if he does this. Something will bomb. There has never been a perfect president. Never. And that's the question can he handle the pressure? Look how many times he just lost it and started going off on Twitter. He can't do that as president, it's unbecoming. Can he even have an iPhone? They all use blackberries on the hill right? He's in for a huge shock. This is why you generally do not want someone that hasn't been involved in some sort of governing in the position. It's like moving to another country with another language. Everything changes.

In some way I feel a little sorry for him, but he's everyone's president now. I hope he doesn't fuck it up.
 
Cw14f8IWQAA8kFE.jpg:large

Agreed. Too little is said about these impacts.
 
What changes do you propose to the primary process?

I'm comfortable with doing away with super delegates, and making every competition an open *primary*. DWS is gone. There is no one else I'm aware of that the DNC want to coronate.

Would these changes suffice?

I think that the actual states up for grabs need to have more importance going forward, I think this matters cause they are the source of result uncertainty. You need a candidate that's favorable to the voters in those areas and will not make the safe places turn. Think about the actual battle that needs to be won, not the one you already have. Super delegates need to go, it just curtails the enthusiasm of the base and we now that democrats need that.

I agree the elite vs. non-elite framing is a little off, but I think you're looking at this too one dimensionally. I think the argument should be insider vs. outsider. Trump is a credible outsider because the elite actually publicly reject him. Hillary is an insider. Bernie is not a credible outsider to me but he managed to sell himself as one, no doubt in no small part because he was running against the definition of an insider.

Bernie has some characteristics that fit the mold...namely that he was not really ever in charge of party machinery, nor was he clearly in the party...but it's hard for me to understand a career politician as a political outsider. But perception is reality.

Regarding relitigating the primary, what 2016 demonstrated was that you can't win the democratic nomination without minority support. It happened in 2008 and it happened in 2016. I don't care if Dumbie Washedupman Shitz was jumping up and down on the scale (forget putting her finger on it), there was no overcoming the early March sweep through the south...and there never WILL be. Now if you want to talk about putting swing state contests up earlier in the primary, there's something I'd be interested in.

Yes, Battleground states need to be considered more.
 

Dierce

Member
Some racist punks just drove by my house and yelled 'white america.' I live in a pretty diverse neighborhood. But of course, we have to listen to the opinions of orange turd supporters and be open to clear bigotry... That monster enabled these assholes and they will only keep multiplying.
 
I feel like this is really accurate

"I could use a break to Mar-a-Lago. I'm exhausted. It's meetings meetings meetings. And after the meetings I need to make speeches."
"Sir, we don't have the security to handle a vacation there, please select a location from the Secret Service approved places"
"But I don't want to go to some dumb camp. I want Lago!"
"Sir, you can't do that, we don't have the security to assure your safety"
"THIS JOB SUCKS!"

"Take me to Outback"
"Sir? Would you like me to call the Ambassador to Australia and organize an official visit?"
"Outback. I want a steak. Outback has that nice bread. I like that bread. I think there's a coupon for a free blooming onion in my wallet. Might be expired. How can they refuse a coupon from the president, though?"
"Sir, we cannot take you to Outback. We need to vet the restaurant first and prepare security. Shall we have the White House chefs prepare a steak?"
"THIS JOB IS KILLING ME"

"I wonder how Ivanka's handling Trump Tower, I should give her a call"
"Sir, I must advise you, you cannot discuss Trump Tower with Ivanka, it's a conflict of interest with your duties to the American People"
"It'll just be a minute, god."
"Sir, I must remind you all phone calls, in and out, are recorded for investigation purposes"
"OH MY GOD MAKE IT STOP"
 
Making it about policy probably also wouldn't have worked. You just have to have someone likable to sell a simple message. Obama's hope and change in 2008 was the MAGA of his time. That's really all it is.

It's really that simple. You just have to appear like you care about the average person and energize your base. If the person also happens to be black or hispanic or asian then that's an additional helpful factor in the Dem coalition.
 
I think that the actual states up for grabs need to have more importance going forward, I think this matters cause they are the source of result uncertainty. You need a candidate that's favorable to the voters in those areas and will not make the safe places turn. Think about the actual battle that needs to be won, not the one you already have. Super delegates need to go, it just curtails the enthusiasm of the base and we now that democrats need that, make



Yes, Battleground states need to be considered more.

Agreed there.

Though that might have actually hurt Sanders... just FYI.

If the argument is that not enough people knew him.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Making it about policy probably also wouldn't have worked. You just have to have someone likable to sell a simple message. Obama's hope and change in 2008 was the MAGA of his time. That's really all it is.

To be fair, Hillary didn't really try. Mook clearly wanted to run a certain sort of campaign and there was no room in there for the non-progressive base of the party. So we lost them.

If she had hammered Trump on outsourcing jobs, on not paying workers. On Bankruptcy being used to get out of debt owed to Unions. He was Mitt Romney on crack when it came to stepping on the little guy to get rich.

But she decided his being deplorable was enough. And it was for me, and all of us. But we are the progressive end of the party who is horrified by that stuff.

Clearly a large swath of the Dem base was voted for MAGA and the promise of returned jobs. She never called him out on trade wars and his economic policy being horrible for the very people he was pandering to. She never called him out as a liar for promising apple would bring jobs. She should have called him a snake oil salesmen in a debate and hit him.

But she was happy to say 80 economists said this, and 90 generals said that and appeal to critical thinking. Obama would have hammered him on these things and not because he is carrismatic. He had better people around him.

Mook and Brooklyn created an elite liberal urban message and ran on it and did not care about those marginal Dem voters in the country and burbs who might have been put off by it. You have to play to both groups and get everyone in the tent.

I'm as pissed off about the baskets of deplorables as anyone. But we should not have written off those democratic voters in the rust belt.
 
To be fair, Hillary didn't really try. Mook clearly wanted to run a certain sort of campaign and there was no room in there for the non-progressive base of the party. So we lost them.

If she had hammered Trump on outsourcing jobs, on not paying workers. On Bankruptcy being used to get out of debt owed to Unions. He was Mitt Romney on crack when it came to stepping on the little guy to get rich.

But she decided his being deplorable was enough. And it was for me, and all of us. But we are the progressive end of the party who is horrified by that stuff.

Clearly a large swath of the Dem base was voted for MAGA and the promise of returned jobs. She never called him out on trade wars and his economic policy being horrible for the very people he was pandering to. She never called him out as a liar for promising apple would bring jobs. She should have called him a snake oil salesmen in a debate and hit him.

But she was happy to say 80 economists said this, and 90 generals said that and appeal to critical thinking. Obama would have hammered him on these things and not because he is carrismatic. He had better people around him.

Mook and Brooklyn created an elite liberal urban message and ran on it and did not care about those marginal Dem voters in the country and burbs who might have been put off by it. You have to play to both groups and get everyone in the tent.

I'm as pissed off about the baskets of deplorables as anyone. But we should not have written off those democratic voters in the rust belt.

This. To me the biggest mistake Clinton campaign made is NOT running and painting Trump's economic agenda as being against middle class.
 
That I agree with... he's nice but nice is whatever...

Was definitely on the Clinton/Warren train.
I wasn't (well, I was at one point to be accurate but I quickly got off it). That would have been stupid and just compounded the sexism problems. Like, I don't get it at all but both my parents (reliable D voters in Michigan) voted for Clinton but they told me that had Clinton picked Warren as her runningmate, they would have voted Trump just for that reason alone basically. I tried arguing with them about that being sexist or whatever, but they both just came up with all type of deflections and stuff and she wasn't picked anyway so I didn't really push it because I didn't see the point. I don't get it at all, but that's what they told me. So anecdotal and everything but I can't see how Warren would have been in any way a better choice. Kaine was bad but Warren would have been worse. People weren't ready for one woman in the Oval Office, let alone two, sad as taht is.
 
To be fair, Hillary didn't really try. Mook clearly wanted to run a certain sort of campaign and there was no room in there for the non-progressive base of the party. So we lost them.

If she had hammered Trump on outsourcing jobs, on not paying workers. On Bankruptcy being used to get out of debt owed to Unions. He was Mitt Romney on crack when it came to stepping on the little guy to get rich.

But she decided his being deplorable was enough. And it was for me, and all of us. But we are the progressive end of the party who is horrified by that stuff.

Clearly a large swath of the Dem base was voted for MAGA and the promise of returned jobs. She never called him out on trade wars and his economic policy being horrible for the very people he was pandering to. She never called him out as a liar for promising apple would bring jobs. She should have called him a snake oil salesmen in a debate and hit him.

But she was happy to say 80 economists said this, and 90 generals said that and appeal to critical thinking. Obama would have hammered him on these things and not because he is carrismatic. He had better people around him.

Mook and Brooklyn created an elite liberal urban message and ran on it and did not care about those marginal Dem voters in the country and burbs who might have been put off by it. You have to play to both groups and get everyone in the tent.

I'm as pissed off about the baskets of deplorables as anyone. But we should not have written off those democratic voters in the rust belt.

Very well said
 

Hindl

Member
Not sure which part is being responded to, the Democrats lose and are having the typical infighting of a losing party part of the "voters actually shifted instead of just not voting" part?

Yeah sorry, I was talking about the voters shifting. Though it's both shifting and not voting. Minorities didn't vote, while rust belt voters shifted. Minorities didn't vote because Hillary just didn't inspire them in the same way that Obama did, but they still turned out in droves. I think a lot of rust belt voters that voted for Obama but hated Hillary. I don't think those moderates are poisoned from voting Dem ever again. They just literally thought Hillary was corrupt, a criminal, a liar, etc. And they decided I'd rather have a racist in the White House than an actual criminal. That's awful, I know. But we can get them back, AND without having to appeal to racism or nationalism. A large chunk of Trump's base are terrible and racist, and that is what propelled him to victory. But I think a lot of rust belt voters were simply hurting, they were watching their towns dying, and watching drugs overtake them. And Hillary, despite having the policies that would directly benefit them the most, never reached out to them. Trump did, and behind all the racism and xenophobia there was talk of trade deals taking their jobs, which many of these people already believe. If you get the right candidate that understands the struggle small town America is going through, and can explain to them how they will help, they can get back those Obama voters that flipped.
 

tuffy

Member
Making it about policy probably also wouldn't have worked. You just have to have someone likable to sell a simple message. Obama's hope and change in 2008 was the MAGA of his time. That's really all it is.
That's basically what worked for Bill Clinton too. He had a charismatic personality, hit GHW Bush for his "no new taxes" pledge, and focused on the economy. If a lot of Trump's far-fetched promises don't come to fruition and the economy worsens, it's easy to whip up a simple message against him.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I mean she did in the debates but I guess that's not good enough....

I do think a big failure on her part was having faith in the electorate to do the moral thing.

She didn't paint him with it though. And even in the debates they were glancing blows.

It's the economy stupid.

Fucking light his ass up on the economy and let him tie the kneck around his own throat on the being a shitbag in his own free time.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Not a bad idea if you wanted to go 100% outsider.

Hell, there's even time to get him elected to Congress if we wanted.

My larger point is this: the lesson we should be learning from this election is that charisma is all that really matters. If you look back over the last 40 years it's pretty clear that only the charismatic win, those with an IT factor. Policy doesn't matter. It just doesn't. Ideas only vaguely matter. People want the shiny. So we should find someone who emulates the values we want to see in the White House who also has charisma coming out his ass--and yes I mean his, we obviously aren't ready for a lady.
 

daedalius

Member
"I could use a break to Mar-a-Lago. I'm exhausted. It's meetings meetings meetings. And after the meetings I need to make speeches."
"Sir, we don't have the security to handle a vacation there, please select a location from the Secret Service approved places"
"But I don't want to go to some dumb camp. I want Lago!"
"Sir, you can't do that, we don't have the security to assure your safety"
"THIS JOB SUCKS!"

"Take me to Outback"
"Sir? Would you like me to call the Ambassador to Australia and organize an official visit?"
"Outback. I want a steak. Outback has that nice bread. I like that bread. I think there's a coupon for a free blooming onion in my wallet. Might be expired. How can they refuse a coupon from the president, though?"
"Sir, we cannot take you to Outback. We need to vet the restaurant first and prepare security. Shall we have the White House chefs prepare a steak?"
"THIS JOB IS KILLING ME"

"I wonder how Ivanka's handling Trump Tower, I should give her a call"
"Sir, I must advise you, you cannot discuss Trump Tower with Ivanka, it's a conflict of interest with your duties to the American People"
"It'll just be a minute, god."
"Sir, I must remind you all phone calls, in and out, are recorded for investigation purposes"
"OH MY GOD MAKE IT STOP"

Hah, perfect

I hope they do a bit on SNL with trump and Obama sitting next to each other in the oval office and trump(alec) is just sobbing into his hands the entire time Obama is talking.
 

Maxim726X

Member
That's basically what worked for Bill Clinton too. He had a charismatic personality, hit GHW Bush for his "no new taxes" pledge, and focused on the economy. If a lot of Trump's far-fetched promises don't come to fruition and the economy worsens, it's easy to whip up a simple message against him.

How much more evidence do we need?

For my entire lifetime, it's the charismatic democrat who gets elected. No one else did.

Al Snore, John Kerry, and now Hillary... Are we seeing a pattern here?

And policy? Clearly no one gives a fuck about that as someone just won the presidency without a shred of actual policy, besides building a wall (not going to happen) and banning Muslims (also not going to happen).

Rubio said it best during the primaries (paraphrasing): ' I tried to talk about policy, but no one cared'. I hope the Dems learn from this.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Yeah for the record I think that's also BS because she got no air time for policy.

There was no time to talk about policy, the huge number of Trump scandals took up all the oxygen in every newsroom.

How much more evidence do we need?

For my entire lifetime, it's the charismatic democrat who gets elected. No one else did.

Al Snore, John Kerry, and now Hillary... Are we seeing a pattern here?

And policy? Clearly no one gives a fuck about that as someone just won the presidency without a shred of actual policy, besides building a wall (not going to happen) and banning Muslims (also not going to happen).

Rubio said it best during the primaries (paraphrasing): ' I tried to talk about policy, but no one cared'. I hope the Dems learn from this.

Yup. We need to find the shiniest motherfucker alive and run him.
 
There was no time to talk about policy, the huge number of Trump scandals took up all the oxygen in every newsroom.

I mean if we were only that lucky, it was e-mails after e-mails as well...

And a lot of making e-mails out to to be equivalent to Trump's actual scandals....
 
White Evangelicals selling out the planet does make sense if 81% of them are disconnected from reality and think that the rapture will occur soon or that climate change will cause the rapture.
 
I don't want to harp on Sanders supporters anymore but I think it's quite ridiculous that over the past two days, they've been saying that Hillary's fault was not appealing to WWC, and that we should've given Bernie a chance, but none of them are acknowledging Sanders failure to attract the minority vote during primaries. His lacking efforts toward southern states and the amount of shit BLM got from his supporters for asking him to say anything about their movement were strong points of contention that were known.

I mean if we were only that lucky, it was e-mails after e-mails as well...

And a lot of making e-mails out to to be equivalent to Trump's actual scandals....

CNN just completely brushing aside how unprecedented Comey's last minute stunt was was embarassing.
 

Blader

Member
I genuinely don't know what you guys are talking about. She DID hammer Trump's economic policies. She DID hammer what a trade war would mean. She DID hammer him on his record of failed and cheated businesses. And she did talk up her own, positive policy visions.

But nobody remembered or cared. The media didn't cover her positive policy speeches (see: that handy graph of email coverage vs. policy coverage), and any policy arguments she made in the debate were vastly outweighed by coverage of Trump saying he wouldn't accept election results or Trump denying he sexually assaulted anyone. All the outrageous shit is what lived in the news cycle. How does Hillary break through that?
 

Angry Fork

Member
This is not different from what I'm saying, except that your sympathies lie with the white people who decided that racial justice did not matter to them, and not the people of color who were sold out by white voters who were never real allies.

Reading about these people (ones who voted Obama but switched), a lot of them say they don't think Trump is serious about the racial aspects, or that they disagree with that but agree with other shit, and that tolerating racist "rhetoric" (in their eyes) doesn't translate to actual action. They could be lying obviously and secretly like what he's saying about race, I don't know.

Honestly maybe you're right that this is giving them too much benefit of the doubt, but I don't know another way to think about it if we want a broad multi-racial lefty coalition. I 100% believe it's possible for this to exist without ever compromising on civil rights.

Any one of those people who says they do accept all of the shit trump says and defend white nationalism as a concept/idea in itself, they'll get no understanding from me ever. I understand you saying anyone who can compromise on civil rights isn't an ally, but I'm inclined to think some of these who are only thinking about economics right now can become one.
 
I genuinely don't know what you guys are talking about. She DID hammer Trump's economic policies. She DID hammer what a trade war would mean. She DID hammer him on his record of failed and cheated businesses. And she did talk up her own, positive policy visions.

But nobody remembered or cared. The media didn't cover her positive policy speeches (see: that handy graph of email coverage vs. policy coverage), and any policy arguments she made in the debate were vastly outweighed by coverage of Trump saying he wouldn't accept election results or Trump denying he sexually assaulted anyone. All the outrageous shit is what lived in the news cycle. How does Hillary break through that?
She stood in front of his failed businesses in NJ and made speeches about how awful Trump is. i know everybody forgets since it wasn't reported on but yeah.
 
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