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[Oblivion]

Uh, I don't know guys, "if Clinton talked more about policy this would have been avoided"?

I genuinely don't know what you guys are talking about. She DID hammer Trump's economic policies. She DID hammer what a trade war would mean. She DID hammer him on his record of failed and cheated businesses. And she did talk up her own, positive policy visions.

But nobody remembered or cared. The media didn't cover her positive policy speeches (see: that handy graph of email coverage vs. policy coverage), and any policy arguments she made in the debate were vastly outweighed by coverage of Trump saying he wouldn't accept election results or Trump denying he sexually assaulted anyone. All the outrageous shit is what lived in the news cycle. How does Hillary break through that?

Yeah, I'm gonna have to agree with these guys.

The rest of you seem to be living in a parallel universe.

 

[titiklabingapat]

A lot of these GOP governors need to be careful with the congressional GOP. If the economy starts dipping, these governors are not going to be in a good position. They managed to ride Obama's economic improvements as their own (while criticism him) but if the economy of the entire country starts slipping, they'll be blamed.

The GOP is in a really awkward spot. They have a crazy, unpredictable, uncontrollable person as the president. A tea party sipping true believer speaker and a right leaning old school moderate who talks a hard conservative game as Senate Majority leader. It's like three different, completely unorganized facets of the party and they all want full control.

They're threatening to destroy Obamacare without replacing the parts of the bill that are very popular. They're threatening to get rid of gay marriage, which has bi-partisan support and is probably the fastest way on the planet to get Democrats enthused to beat them. They don't believe in global warming, despite the majority of the country across both parties believing it's a problem. They didn't win the popular vote. They loss house seats. They didn't win because people voted for them, but because nobody voted. They have no mandate to speak of. Many of their governors only have their offices due to Obama's strong economy.

This entire thing is basically set up near perfectly for them to bring in a 2008 style wave for the Democrats. And they know it. They're not stupid. It's a balancing act, and if it teeters off course, it'll be a disaster for the GOP. And losing 2020 in a landslide would crush the GOP for a decade. In sort of a reverse 2010. They got a brief blast of fresh air, but they're still a dying party, only propped up by voter suppression, liberal apathy, and gerrymandering. They know this, and they work towards all three of those things because they can't win without them anymore because America continues to reject their policies, despite them winning elections.

Going to be a weird couple of years for the GOP. It's almost bittersweet for them, absolute power, but with 2020's census year election looming in the distance.

This is my hope too but this is all predicated on the Dems not eating each other alive.

Yeah, I'm gonna have to agree with these guys.

The rest of you seem to be living in a parallel universe.

Yeah, I'm with you too. Clinton did talk all those things. But Trump's strategy was to say something even more outlandish to muddle the waters every single time and it worked.

 

[daedalius]

Has anyone seen this yet?

Why Trump Won America

Ah, i remember that episode. Watching it with my wife, we could only constantly facepalm

 

[hipsterpants]

A lot of these GOP governors need to be careful with the congressional GOP. If the economy starts dipping, these governors are not going to be in a good position. They managed to ride Obama's economic improvements as their own (while criticism him) but if the economy of the entire country starts slipping, they'll be blamed.

The GOP is in a really awkward spot. They have a crazy, unpredictable, uncontrollable person as the president. A tea party sipping true believer speaker and a right leaning old school Reagan style "moderate" who talks a hard conservative game as Senate Majority leader. It's like three different, completely unorganized facets of the party and they all want full control.

They're threatening to destroy Obamacare without replacing the parts of the bill that are very popular. They're threatening to get rid of gay marriage, which has bi-partisan support and is probably the fastest way on the planet to get Democrats enthused to beat them. They don't believe in global warming, despite the majority of the country across both parties believing it's a problem. They didn't win the popular vote. They loss house seats. They didn't win because people voted for them, but because nobody voted. They have no mandate to speak of. Many of their governors only have their offices due to Obama's strong economy.

This entire thing is basically set up near perfectly for them to bring in a 2008 style wave for the Democrats. And they know it. They're not stupid. It's a balancing act, and if it teeters off course, it'll be a disaster for the GOP. And losing 2020 in a landslide would crush the GOP for a decade. In sort of a reverse 2010. They got a brief blast of fresh air, but they're still a dying party, only propped up by voter suppression, liberal apathy, and gerrymandering. They know this, and they work towards all three of those things because they can't win without them anymore because America continues to reject their policies, despite them winning elections.

Going to be a weird couple of years for the GOP. It's almost bittersweet for them, absolute power, but with 2020's census year election looming in the distance.

I imagine the smarter people in the GOP were hoping for a Trump loss and a comeback win in 2020. They're in a very dangerous position.

It's seriously some kind of cruel joke that this election actually showed off the electoral limitations of the GOP. If the white college-educated really broke for Trump yesterday and this was the result, they really are fucked.

 

[Byakuya769]

I wish things were different, but those states aren't winnable for the Democrats.

North Carolina, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania heavily rely on black voter turnout for Democrats.

 

[Souldriver]

George Clooney. He's the ultimate shiny.

Omg somehow I think that would work very well.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

This is the worse state for both parties at the moment.

If I was the GOP, which situation would I prefer?

- Holding the House, maybe the Senate, and being able to obstruct an unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year. The economy stayed okay and the GOP held the governors they had.

- Holding all three branches of government and having full responsibility, with a weak and unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year, and also you lost most of the Governor's races in 2018.

I'm honestly not entirely sure they'd want the second choice (which is what they got). Because now 2020 is a battle for control for an entire decade and the deck is stacked against the GOP.

The Hail Mary for the GOP at this point is some massive new advancement in technology that brings the economy to a frenzy in the next 4 years.

 

[B-Dubs]

Omg somehow I think that would work very well.

That's because only shiny matters.

 

[Pixieking]

If I was the GOP, which situation would I prefer?

- Holding the House, maybe the Senate, and being able to obstruct an unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year. The economy stayed okay and the GOP held the governors they had.

- Holding all three branches of government and having full responsibility, with a weak and unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year, and also you lost most of the Governor's races in 2018.

I'm honestly not entirely sure they'd want the second choice (which is what they got). Because now 2020 is a battle for control for an entire decade and the deck is stacked against the GOP.

The Hail Mary for the GOP at this point is some massive new advancement in technology that brings the economy to a frenzy in the next 4 years.

Renewable energy could've been that... Maybe. But not any more.

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten 7m7 minutes ago

Looking at Georgia results, Clinton did better than Obama in the Atlanta well-educated suburbs. But got smoked outside of there.

Rural voters once again screwing us over. Voter education is a key to all this, I'm sure of it.

 

[j_k_redtail]

The sanders campaign definitely didn't think they'd get so far imo, so they made mistakes in the beginning by not hitting the ground running on everything they could against Clinton. There's also evidence that much of the reason blacks/hispanics weren't into Sanders as much (although he made up some ground in the end with younger ones) is name recognition. Black people know and like the Clintons, but for reasons I don't understand given their record in the 90s.

That being said every major force within the DNC already had their lot with Clinton from the beginning because they wanted this to be a coronation, it was "her turn", and all that dumb shit. They did all they could to make things worse for Sanders and his people.

You're missing something important. Sanders was pitching a political revolution. This is appealing to white voters who have seen their quality of life stagnate over the last generation or two. Black voters don't have the same experience - we've seen our QOL improve dramatically over the last generation or two, and are far more optimistic about the future. This has been a very consistent finding across several polls. (This is why Trump's statement that black America was in the worst state it has ever been was so absurd.) The sentiment in black America and white America is different, and that influences how these two groups vote.

There is precedent for this idea. Remember for instance, that direction of the unemployment rate is a stronger predictor for an election than the raw unemployment rate. This is the same principle at work. Sanders' message resonates deeply in white America because white voters (of both parties) generally feel/felt like things are getting worse; black voters generally feel like things have gotten better. Both are actually correct: household economics have gotten harder for white voters over the last generation or so, but they've gotten better for black voters as various forms of institutional racism have been pulled back. I think a lot of liberals have underestimated the economic impact of structural racism over several generations, and therefore they don't realize how big a benefit the CRM was.

Sanders needed to reconcile white pessimism with black optimism. Obama was good at that in 2008. He also needed surrogates with real political pull in black America - not Cornell West, Rosario Dawson, and Killer Mike.

This isn't rocket science. Clay Shirky had a good set of tweets on this after Super Tuesday. A skilled campaign manager could've told Sanders these things early in his campaign. That's why I think he wasn't really prepared for the long-haul. They just never bothered to think about it.

 

[StopMakingSense]

2020 might be the one thing that keeps them from going full crazy on policy.

So many R senate seats up for reelection.

 

[MoxManiac]

I want to be believe some of the ideas here about there being a democratic revolution in 2018 or 2020 but i can't help but be pessimistic.

 

[Loudninja]

OT side is annoying as hell.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I can't believe Paul Ryan wants to eliminate food stamps and Medicaid.

Just a monster.

... How can you want poor children to starve? Jesus Christ.

 

[Blader]

If I was the GOP, which situation would I prefer?

- Holding the House, maybe the Senate, and being able to obstruct an unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year. The economy stayed okay and the GOP held the governors they had.

- Holding all three branches of government and having full responsibility, with a weak and unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year, and also you lost most of the Governor's races in 2018.

I'm honestly not entirely sure they'd want the second choice (which is what they got). Because now 2020 is a battle for control for an entire decade and the deck is stacked against the GOP.

The Hail Mary for the GOP at this point is some massive new advancement in technology that brings the economy to a frenzy in the next 4 years.

I'm not so sure about that. How many times does an incumbent president lose? History seems to favor re-election. There are always different mitigating circumstances for why that is, but that's the trend. Just like the trend is always against incumbent parties winning third terms in the White House; there are different reasons, but the outcome is usually the same.

Honestly I can't even really think about it, just four years of a President Trump is too much to bear at the moment, eight years is just crushing. And I can't really bank on a Dem wave to turn the tide in 2020 just because the party is in a huge state of flux right now, and I'm not sure how they can right the ship and build up their bench over the next two and four years.

I think the most likely outcome is Trump genuinely can't handle the stress of the job and either decides not to run for re-election or dies in office. Pence would be on tap but I don't see him turning out Trump's voters. Then again, what do I know!

 

[Barzul]

2020 might be the one thing that keeps them from going full crazy on policy.

So many R senate seats up for reelection.

They've spent 8 years destroying Obama and his mandate. They have complete power if they do nothing the campaign slogan writes itself, if the fail even better. Their only path is to actually succeed.

 

[faisal233]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305339-clinton-world-dumbfounded-by-hillarys-election-defeat

“It was a mismanaged campaign from the start, 150 percent,” one aide said. “There was so much stuff that needed fixing. I thought we might have learned some lessons from the primary. But as you can tell from last night, probably not.”

Less than 24 hours after the mood at the Clinton election night party at the Jacob Javits Convention Center turned from celebratory to funereal, aides wondered how they could have lost so badly, why they didn’t see it coming, and how the Democrat could have lost to Trump.

One surrogate blamed the poor sampling models and analytics that the campaign was so reliant on. It hadn’t done traditional tracking polls for the last month.

Other aides and surrogates pointed to an arrogance that came from the top.

Some faulted the top brass for not properly allocating the resources they needed to win states.

Given Clinton’s primary loss to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in Michigan, allies questioned why the Democratic nominee didn’t double down in the state much earlier.

Allies on the ground complained for weeks that they weren’t getting the resources they needed.

YAAS QUEEN.

 

[Crocodile]

Which Senate seats, held by Democrats are we at risk of losing in 2018?

Which Senate Seats, held by Republicans are we at risk of gaining in 2020?

The sense I'm getting is 2018 is likely be bad for us and 2020 will likely be good for us just based on which seats are up?

Also, is there a House seat Kander can run for in 2018 (since he seems to be the flavor-du-jour)?

 

[Blader]

2020 might be the one thing that keeps them from going full crazy on policy.

So many R senate seats up for reelection.

Are there? I know the 2018 map looks bad for Dems in the Senate (but maybe not the House? not sure) but don't know anything about the 2020 map.

Fuck...four years...that's a ways to go.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

2020 might be the one thing that keeps them from going full crazy on policy.

So many R senate seats up for reelection.

2020 is such an important election for them. They've held control of the census years every census year since 1990. This gives them immense power over districts and shaping congress.

If they lose that power they'd have for 30 years, it could be the final nail in the coffin of the party. It's dragged them along as the country continues to move forward and reject their policies because they're better at drawing districts than they are at actual policy.

 

[Plinko]

As I said in the OT thread: Please, PoliGAF: Keep defending Mook.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Are there? I know the 2018 map looks bad for Dems in the Senate (but maybe not the House? not sure) but don't know anything about the 2020 map.

Fuck...four years...that's a ways to go.

Think, it's all the seats won in the 2014 wave.

aka:

 

[Loudninja]

As I said in the OT thread: Please, PoliGAF: Keep defending Mook.

Oh give me a break seriously.

Some of you are looking for anything or anyone to blame at this point.

 

[Totakeke]

Another caution against taking the numbers that are out there now and treating it as gospel.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

As I said in the OT thread: Please, PoliGAF: Keep defending Mook.

Indefensible. The first time I saw the stage / setting for her victory party, it was reassuring: "oh wow this is a campaign that knows it's gonna win."

Now? It just pisses me off. It's the height of hubris.

 

[pigeon]

Come on man. That's too fucking far.

I hate the Deplorables as much as anyone. But she lost 7 million voters who voted for a black man. They arent unreachable. We can either chalk that up to the country being so fucking racist that we just pack it up and go home and wrote the country off as lost.

Or we can figure out WHY 7 million votes were lost.

You say you hate the deplorables as much as anybody, but the entire framing of this discussion is focused on letting white working class people off the hook for their choice to vote for a white nationalist.

Maybe they aren't stupid. Maybe they listened and paid attention just like all other Americans. Maybe they knew that Trump was a white nationalist. Maybe they liked it, or maybe they just didn't care.

When you say "why did we lose these votes?" The implication is pretty clearly "because it can't just be that America is super racist!"

I don't think I can agree.

And yes, I think it's worth considering the possibility that a large percentage of Americans are just fine with white nationalism and that, as a person of color, there is no safety from them in this country.

 

[BiggNife]

Think, it's all the seats won in the 2014 wave.

aka:

Yeah. The only real upside to the 2018 senate map being shit for dems is that the 2020 map looks worse for the GOP.

 

[Brawly Likes to Brawl]

That's because only shiny matters.

I willing to concede that we absolutely need a real rouser going forward, but what's going to happen on years where we just don't have any available or prepared? It can happen, look at the prospects the GOP had outside of Trump. If he decided not to run out of spite of Obama making fun of him years ago, all they would have is the clown car plus Kasich.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Looks like Trump flip-floped on South Korea

Good.

 

[B-Dubs]

I willing to concede that we absolutely need a real rouser going forward, but what's going to happen on years where we just don't have any available or prepared? It can happen, look at the prospects the GOP had outside of Trump. If he decided not to run out of spite of Obama making fun of him years ago, all they would have is the clown car plus Kasich.

If there's no shiny then policy matters, I will concede this. But if there is shiny? If there is shiny then that's all anyone cares about.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump's team just defended Erdogan who just imprisoned his political opponents.

This is bad sign.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I willing to concede that we absolutely need a real rouser going forward, but what's going to happen on years where we just don't have any available or prepared? It can happen, look at the prospects the GOP had outside of Trump. If he decided not to run out of spite of Obama making fun of him years ago, all they would have is the clown car plus Kasich.

We find someone. They don't even need to be a politician anymore. Trump has changed the established rules of who can and cannot be president.

 

[sphagnum]

Trump's team just defended Erdogan who just imprisoned his political opponents.

This is bad sign.

Well, so did the Obama administration.

 

[Pixieking]

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/305339-clinton-world-dumbfounded-by-hillarys-election-defeat

Allies on the ground complained for weeks that they weren’t getting the resources they needed.

If this is true then heads need to fucking roll. Because that's some Trump-level idiocy.

 

[Loudninja]

Well, so did the Obama administration.

Cant really compare them though.

 

[B-Dubs]

Trump's team just defended Erdogan who just imprisoned his political opponents.

This is bad sign.

If I'm the Clintons I might start looking into plane tickets to France or something. Still, it could just be standard international relations speak. Not that I like the sound of it at all.

 

[kirblar]

Well, so did the Obama administration.

Oh please, do elaborate.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

We kept believing Trump was the one with the weak ground game and the bad management.

When we were the ones who were really running a bad campaign.

 

[Totakeke]

We find someone. They don't even need to be a politician anymore. Trump has changed the established rules of who can and cannot be president.

Democracy is broken when we're not searching for the most qualified but the most shiny.

 

[Fenderputty]

I can't believe Paul Ryan wants to eliminate food stamps and Medicaid.

Just a monster.

... How can you want poor children to starve? Jesus Christ.

His budget is gonna be rubber stamped so fast

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...d:+TheHillsPunditBlog+(The+Hill's+Pundit+Blog

General Michael Flynn reallllllly wants to give Gulen over to Erdogan because.... Gulen is a radical Muslim?

..... I, I... I'm not sure that General Michael Flynn knows that Erdogan is Muslim.

 

[Y2Kev]

Think, it's all the seats won in the 2014 wave.

aka:

Basically none of these are winnable anyway. I think we're bumping into this problem where 30 states are hardcore R. How do you get a senate majority from that in a polarized world?

 

[faisal233]

You say you hate the deplorables as much as anybody, but the entire framing of this discussion is focused on letting white working class people off the hook for their choice to vote for a white nationalist.

Maybe they aren't stupid. Maybe they listened and paid attention just like all other Americans. Maybe they knew that Trump was a white nationalist. Maybe they liked it, or maybe they just didn't care.

When you say "why did we lose these votes?" The implication is pretty clearly "because it can't just be that America is super racist!"

I don't think I can agree.

And yes, I think it's worth considering the possibility that a large percentage of Americans are just fine with white nationalism and that, as a person of color, there is no safety from them in this country.

No, fuck anybody that voted for Trump. We don't need them, we need the -6M that stayed home.

I don't even understand your argument. You want the WWC trump vote on the hook. Sure. Go ahead. THEY. DONT. GIVE. A. FUCK. They won everything this election. They don't care if you think they are racist, because they are. They will fuck you while you protest.

But we do need to bring our WWC vote that stayed home back in the fold. If you see that we need to also include and message those people with our future campaigns, then enjoy your day after election protests.

 

[Pixieking]

Oh please, do elaborate.

Some things are just political. You don't criticise a key partner in the fight against terror, without being subtle about it

President Barack Obama pledged U.S. support for the democratically elected government of Turkey while urging embattled Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to respect civil liberties as he responds to the coup attempt that almost forced him from power.

From July.

 

[Four_Chamber]

Keith Ellison as DNC chair would be huge. It would instantly get me and a lot of the progressive base excited. Ellison is courageous and is not afraid to speak his mind.

 

[kirblar]

From July.

Some things are just political. You don't criticise a key partner in the fight against terror, without being subtle about it


From a couple of days later in July.

Oh, I thought he meant that the Obama admin was imprisoning political opponents.

 

[pigeon]

We kept believing Trump was the one with the weak ground game and the bad management.

When we were the ones who were really running a bad campaign.

I'm just gonna be honest -- have you guys never lost an election before?

Of course the people on the ground in Michigan are going to complain that Hillary's team didn't support them enough. THEY FUCKING LOST THE ELECTION. Are you expecting them to say "yeah, honestly, I personally didn't put it out there?"

No, of course not. They're going to round up every complaint and frustration and leak it to the media to protect themselves and dump on the top brass.

This is the kind of backseat driving that wastes everybody's time. At least the people saying that we should sell out people of color to win future elections are offering an actual (evil) plan!

 

[gaugebozo]

If I was the GOP, which situation would I prefer?

- Holding the House, maybe the Senate, and being able to obstruct an unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year. The economy stayed okay and the GOP held the governors they had.

- Holding all three branches of government and having full responsibility, with a weak and unpopular president who was only barely elected going into a weak re-election bid in a census year, and also you lost most of the Governor's races in 2018.

I'm honestly not entirely sure they'd want the second choice (which is what they got). Because now 2020 is a battle for control for an entire decade and the deck is stacked against the GOP.

The Hail Mary for the GOP at this point is some massive new advancement in technology that brings the economy to a frenzy in the next 4 years.

Being entirely in control of the country is vastly preferable to not. If you're only getting your news from conservative sources, you will disagree that the country isn't doing amazing. We've seen this. Facts don't matter. It doesn't matter that:

More Mexicans are leaving then coming in.
We already have an extreme form of vetting for Syrian refuges.
Climate change is real.
You can't renegotiate our debt. That's not how it works.
The ACA was based on Republican ideas. What are you going to replace it with?
Crime is at the lowest point in decades.
Muslims did not dance in the streets on 9/11.
Taxes are historically low.
Most of what Planned Parenthood does is not abortion.
Gay conversion therapy doesn't work.
Abstinence based sex education doesn't work.

And on and on and fucking on. Didn't matter that none of what they said about this was true. Why would it matter next time?

 

[Tarydax]

Mook didn't fucking listen to Bill?

Jesus Christ.

 

[kirblar]

I'm just gonna be honest -- have you guys never lost an election before?

Of course the people on the ground in Michigan are going to complain that Hillary's team didn't support them enough. THEY FUCKING LOST THE ELECTION. Are you expecting them to say "yeah, honestly, I personally didn't put it out there?"

No, of course not. They're going to round up every complaint and frustration and leak it to the media to protect themselves and dump on the top brass.

This is the kind of backseat driving that wastes everybody's time. At least the people saying that we should sell out people of color to win future elections are offering an actual (evil) plan!

The 18-25ers haven't. This appears to be a real systemic issue on the Dem side. 8 years go by, the newbies are soft.