So after all she has done its now bad campaign because it didn't get the results you wanted?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
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It's not clear to me people stayed home vs. flipping to Trump actually.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It's short term power (4 years) at the cost of long term power (10 years). It's not a trade a political party that pretty much relies entirely on gerrymandering can afford to make.
That's what happens when you run an entire campaign based on data. Going forward there needs to be far more of a balance between the two.
Well, that or we need to find the shiniest motherfucker alive and run him.
Those 7 million people didn't vote for Trump.
THEY DID NOT VOTE AT ALL.
Trump had LESS votes than Romney.
Clinton lost 7 million Obama votes. These people did not show up at all.
So no, they probably were not happy with Trump. They are probably less socially progressive than us, but they were probably rightly horrified by him.
But they saw nothing in Clinton's message for them.. Didn't trust her for whatever dumb fucking reasons the GOP made up and stayed home.
Part of this is that Hillary was a flawed candidate. Scandals, likability, secrecy, e-mails, etc, etc. Part of this is because the economic message Obama hammered home was bad.
Look, I get how angry you are. I spent 2 Am on Tuesday curb stomping a Trump Pinata and woke up a 3 AM to puke all over myself. One of my best friends is muslim and he is super thinking about trying to flee the country. I hate the deplorables. I grew up with them.
But we also are not going to get those 7 million votes back by screaming in their face that they are white nationalists. We can get those voters back without selling out POC. They voted for Obama who pushed through a very progressive agenda in these areas. We just have to sell the whole platform and go back to Obama's message of "don't let them divide us, we're all the same and we're all in this together".
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
Yes that bus is coming quick.
I do think with how close Wisconsin and Michigan ended up being that they are telling the truth. I mean we got blown out in Ohio and Iowa and the Clinton camp were definitely polling there. Analytics people should have treated Wisconsin and Michigan more seriously.
Then again like the RNC said. That fucking Comey letter turned the world upside down.
Astaleview
Banned
No more rallies. No more love from massive crowds. Just the anger of a nation. Hes going to either quit or be impeached. But we have to fight until hes out.
That's not surprising, the youngest people don't have a real political memory of what Bush did and certainly don't remember Bill Clinton.
Androidsleeps
Member
I would add that the last two weeks were the final nail in the coffin (FBI email thing & how it was handled by the media). Her lead started to shrink and lots of people were panicking as they saw the writing on the wall. I think even Katy Tur pointed out that in the last weeks the rallies didn't exactly show a winning campaign (which explains their attempt to "fix it" with that last big concert rally), especially since Hillary already had a problem with "enthusiasm".
Seriously, Bill Maher said in the last few days that this is within the margin of pants-shitting, yet people kept holding on to the hopium. Speaking of Maher, total silence from him so far...he said he'd kill Weiner if Hillary lost...
VendettaRed07
Member
It seems that way seeing as how he got less votes than Romney or McCain.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
this is entirely unknown. It's completely possible voters in Michigan/Wisconsin thought that Trump supported them better than Hillary did, and that even though they voted Obama, they would vote Trump.
It could be many things. We'll never know.
Sirpopopop
Member
Trump had no ground game and no management.
What this election shows is that stuff is meaningless.
Please show me the math.
DEM: -6M vote
GOP: -1M vote
Is your theory that 6M votes defected to the GOP and 7M GOP vote stayed home.
We can look at WI numbers again
GOP: +1500 votes
DEM: -270K votes
Lost by 20K
We need to stop being idiologically pure and start bringing in soft R's into some of these states. GA, SC, ME are all winable with people who are not ideologically pure enough to be Republicans any longer, but will support a working class package of economics.
We'll hate their social justice, guns and women's rights positions. But that is how we got the Senate and House in the first place. We need to allow for Dems we don't like very much to win some of these seats.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Not water under the bridge. Hell no. But I'm pragmatic, and an American. I have to hope for the best--if he's a bad pres then of course I'll rip him.
Listen to Obama.
I'm responding to a person talking about how to reach the 7 million Americans who flipped from Obama to Trump. I'm trying to stay focused on the issues here, but it would help if you read the post.
And yet there are countless people in this thread and others trying to explain them away as being worried about the economy. That's what I'm pushing back against.
First off, as noted by Y2Kev, Nate Cohn is suggesting it wasn't about turnout, it was about flipping voters.
But let's assume that millions of white working-class voters didn't turn out.
In other words, those people decided that people of color's lives and safety weren't important enough for them to show up to the polls.
How can I make common cause with them? My life and safety doesn't even register for them. You want to trick them into accidentally protecting minorities? How can I believe in their solidarity? Why won't they just abandon me again next year?
It does not seem like a good way for me to ensure my own safety.
I'm almost afraid to watch Maher this week after how fucking scared he made me last week.
BreezyLimbo
Banned
Mhm. It's not that Trump failed and ran a bad campaign. It's that Hillary somehow managed to run a WORSE campaign.
It's on her, and her teams fault. This isn't Trump pulling some sort of Xanatos win, its that HIllary and her team just ignored key parts of the country because their internals and assumptions were good.
You're making the assumption that what they do matters.
Any data failure by the Clinton campaign is also a data failure by most of the pollsters. Again this is a catastrophic failure that cannot be boiled down to "I told you so". If you followed every trail of possibility during a campaign then you have don't have a campaign.
Again stop latching to everything new and consider them in context.
Again stop latching to everything new and consider them in context.
Basically find the best fit for each seat and run them. Like in 2006/08.
Trump is about to be in over his fucking head. Just looking at him earlier he seems uncomfortable. I know it was said he's going to let Pence do most of the legwork but how much can you really divert to him?
We know Cheney did a lot behind the scenes but Bush still had experience and could govern. Trump better not think this job will simply be giving speeches from time to time and signing his name on a piece of legislation. And it's going to be interesting to see how he reacts when he gets into resistance within his own party.
Also when he gets sworn in. If he's fucking serious about this job. He's going to have to work his ass off and appeal to all the people he insulted over his campaign because we will not forget.
We know Cheney did a lot behind the scenes but Bush still had experience and could govern. Trump better not think this job will simply be giving speeches from time to time and signing his name on a piece of legislation. And it's going to be interesting to see how he reacts when he gets into resistance within his own party.
Also when he gets sworn in. If he's fucking serious about this job. He's going to have to work his ass off and appeal to all the people he insulted over his campaign because we will not forget.
Yeah. Their party saved themselves only temporary. If they make one mistake in the next four years they may kiss goodbye to all three branches of government in 2020. The smart thing they should do is llook at what happened to the federal conservatives in Canada when they got a majority in 2011 even though harper was kinda unpopular then. They abused it and eventually cost them the 2015 federal election. The same thing may happen here if the GOP is not careful.
We could do both things.
But yeah, although analytics aren't going away, campaigns aren't going to bet as heavily on it from now on.
VendettaRed07
Member
Honestly I'm not even sure if that's the best result. Mike Pence will be in charge of everything until the term is out and might be much more competent at being able to win re-election.
We had more blue counties outside of metro Atlanta this year than during the last election, so that's a good sign for GA. But yes, fuck the following counties: Grady, Decatur, Thomas. I actually had to delete a FB friend from my list for dropping #MAGA shit the night of the election. I had prided myself on not having to do that due to me not ever having had a FB account to begin with. Peer pressure sucks, and so do high school graduates from rural counties that go full Groot instead of venturing outside of bumfuck for some fresh perspective.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It was a bad campaign. She made so many mistakes when I look back, that I and we ignored because it was Trump so who cares, we're going to win anyway.
The month off in August was insane
Not releasing her speeches was dumb. They were harmless. Nip that one right away before it grew.
Had no focused or reliable answer for emails
Had a hard time connecting with people
Was never, at no point during the election, on top of any scandal or issue. She usually just waited to let them ride out or had a half ass answer several days too late.
She let Trump completely dominate the entire messaging of the election.
Calling half of Trump supporters irredeemable and deplorable, which instantly locks them into supporting him because you just insulted them, even the ones who may have broken for you in the booth because they were only leaning to Trump at the time
If it was a good campaign we wouldn't have had record low Dem turnout and Donald Trump as president.
This isn't the Obama years. There's no scapegoat if they mess up. Voters always hold the ruling party responsible, it doesn't matter if they're Dem or GOP.
Clinton diseased the campaign with hubris and poor strategy, Comey inflicted the deathblow. According to GOD Nate, 2% more vote for Clinton would have given her the 300+ EV win everyone predicted.
She still should have pulled out a narrow victory in spite of Comey if they prepared better and weren't waiting for a coronation.
elvisaintdead
Member
If Obama voters flipped to Trump in significant numbers, I don't know what a 2020 Democrat win looks like. Because with Obama, they stuck with the "hope and change" candidate in 2012. With Trump, why wouldn't they just stick with the "make america great again" candidate in 2020?
He'd be much easier to beat as he's a much more traditional target. Everyone would know how to deal with him, there'd be no confusion on it.
Somehow he think he can just pass everything to his VP.
Bill Clinton has been repeatedly wrong about politics for the last decade.
People need to stop pretending he's some political genius ignored by the campaign stupidly. He was wrong in 2008 about South Carolina (and Iowa). He was wrong in 2012. He was wrong in the primaries.
He doesn't have some magical radar. He's a fantastic communicator, but lets not forget how much he has been wrong over the course of the last cycle.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Cohn is implying both.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If you don't see what they did (or refused to do) as a major problem, you have zero idea how elections work.
I don't think it's super-difficult, it's just not seeing the wood for the trees.
Here. Take the Rust Belt and Rural WWC. Talk to them (not down to them) about how you're going to give them jobs - not jobs they had, but jobs that will let them eat, raise children, maybe buy a home. Talk to them about retraining. Talk to them about how to stem the tide of heroin. Just talk to them.
Now, take your minorities, and say to them that they matter. Because they do. BLM, gun-crime, equal pay, policing. This all matters.
Now, the thing that you need to remember is that the first group may not like the second group. So, when you talk to them, guide your message. Don't say BLM to a group of ex auto-workers in Michigan, but when you're visiting an African American church in the same state, mention it then.
It shouldn't be hard. I think Hillary spent so much time trying to just debunk what Trump was saying about her, that she forgot to actually speak in full sentences outside of rallies. Add that to her belief that people will attack her for any reason (which, they kinda did), and she was just stuck saying the same things to groups she knew would listen. Gays, Hispanics, Urban voters (but not Suburban). Targeted messaging isn't new, so it's over-confidence and fear that lost her the Rust Belt.
Basileus777
Member
Not really a map for a huge Democratic gain. A bunch of red states, North Carolina, and Susan Collins who won't lose.Think, it's all the seats won in the 2014 wave.
aka:
Plus there's no way with the proposals him and Ryan are throwing out that A) the country will be in a better place and B) marginalized minorities (including women) won't come out in force. Just need that charismatic candidate to appear
It depends on how much people care about what Mike Pence has to say vs what Trump wants to say. Trump has become a cult of personality, he's been riding on a whole lot of vicious buzzwords, and without that I'm not sure he'd be as affable to the people at large.
StopMakingSense
Member
With how many seats needed to flip the Senate, there's enough on the table.
Think, it's all the seats won in the 2014 wave.
aka:
Wow, that is one ugly map. Even in a wave election, there's no way we'd be able to win that many blood red states. Shit, 2020 it is. :/
SerAardvark
Member
I've seen some comments on the Clinton campaign's over-reliance on negative advertising, which I tend to agree with but I'm curious (as I'm in CA, so didn't see many ads other than national ones)... did they run any substantial positive ad campaigns?
I guess I don't understand why there weren't more efforts to sell people on the Democratic platform, but maybe I'm missing some ads/messaging that did go out.
I guess I don't understand why there weren't more efforts to sell people on the Democratic platform, but maybe I'm missing some ads/messaging that did go out.
The reason for the loss:
1) Trump got a lot of latent racists and sexist who do not generally vote to show up in big numbers. These are the deplorables who hate muslims, blacks, hispanics, women, etc.etc.etc. He seems to have gotten millions of voters who do not vote to show up.
2) Trump ran off a somewhat equal number of moderate Republicans who found him deplorable. Movement conservatives who are socially liberal.
3) Hillary did not get WWC voters in the rust belt. Combination of not speaking to them very well, selling progressive ideals that are less appealing in these areas, and a healthy dose of NAFTA being tied to Bill.
4) Trump ran to her left on number 3. Protectionist rhetoric saying we would get rid of NAFTA.
5) Hillary was a flawed candidate who had trust issues. Some fair, some not. 30+ years of being vilified by the right-wing media did not help her.
6) Sexism hurt her.
7) She put her eggs in two leaky baskets. Young voters and Hispanic turnout. Neither materialized. It seems very clear at this point that these two demographic groups will continue to just not show up to the polls no matter how bad the candidate is against them or how positive the Dems push an agenda to their benefit.
1) Trump got a lot of latent racists and sexist who do not generally vote to show up in big numbers. These are the deplorables who hate muslims, blacks, hispanics, women, etc.etc.etc. He seems to have gotten millions of voters who do not vote to show up.
2) Trump ran off a somewhat equal number of moderate Republicans who found him deplorable. Movement conservatives who are socially liberal.
3) Hillary did not get WWC voters in the rust belt. Combination of not speaking to them very well, selling progressive ideals that are less appealing in these areas, and a healthy dose of NAFTA being tied to Bill.
4) Trump ran to her left on number 3. Protectionist rhetoric saying we would get rid of NAFTA.
5) Hillary was a flawed candidate who had trust issues. Some fair, some not. 30+ years of being vilified by the right-wing media did not help her.
6) Sexism hurt her.
7) She put her eggs in two leaky baskets. Young voters and Hispanic turnout. Neither materialized. It seems very clear at this point that these two demographic groups will continue to just not show up to the polls no matter how bad the candidate is against them or how positive the Dems push an agenda to their benefit.
StopMakingSense
Member
Yeah, but you'd need like 3-5 seats to flip the senate, most likely. CO, ME, NC could be easy gets, plus one or two more.
whyamihere
Banned
That is 2020.
That is the 2020 map
This is 2018. It's bad for Dems because they have a ton of states to defend. Whereas in 2020, even though they are in traditionally safe states, Rs have a shitton of seats to defend that could be taken
Look at what Nate Cohn is saying. Turnout was strong in FL/PA and she still lost despite having record support in urban counties. These are flipped voters.
I don't think we can look at this nationally. There are clearly some states where this matters more than others.
Comey was unavoidable bullshit.
The good news is we should be able to retain everything we won since they are all deep blue states (should be) but where do you pick up?
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