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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Looking at the Senate maps, pretty obvious we need to pick up some seats in the South/Mountain West somehow (which is going to require some good moderate Dem candidates).

Obviously DC/Puerto Rico statehood would help.

DC?Puerto Rico statehood won't happen until we retake everything.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Same Clinton, nothing changed. Erased 8 years of progress by being the same insular, arrogant, untalented stupid motherfucker she's been for 16 years.

Today was going to be bad anyway with Trump going to the WH, now it's worse.

Shouldn't you know better than to take as 100% factual every little leak from every corner of the campaign right after a loss?

I don't even know what it means that they didn't run tracking polls. Does that mean they didn't do any polling in October at all? That's hard to believe considering she did go to Michigan and sent the president to NH in the last weekend. Was that based on how she felt? Come on.
 
The reason for the loss:
7) She put her eggs in two leaky baskets. Young voters and Hispanic turnout. Neither materialized. It seems very clear at this point that these two demographic groups will continue to just not show up to the polls no matter how bad the candidate is against them or how positive the Dems push an agenda to their benefit.

She put her eggs completely in minorities. Don't you dare just blame Hispanics and young voters. She appealed to white women, both with college degrees and without, and 45%/62% of them voted trump. In contrast, only 28%/25% hispanic women voted trump.

She heavily needed the women vote since she was appealing to them the most. And they didn't turn out. Hispanic women did turn out in greater percentages for her instead of Trump. So don't you dare put this on HIspanic voters.

Swear to god this is the diet racist version of 'Hispanics are lazy and didn't vote for her'. Nah.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Same Clinton, nothing changed. Erased 8 years of progress by being the same insular, arrogant, untalented stupid motherfucker she's been for 16 years.

Today was going to be bad anyway with Trump going to the WH, now it's worse.

I expected better from you, then again after your constant hinting of oppo that never dropped... not sure what to believe.
 

Loudninja

Member
Shouldn't you know better than to take as 100% factual every little leak from every corner of the campaign right after a loss?

I don't even know what it means that they didn't run tracking polls. Does that mean they didn't do any polling in October at all? That's hard to believe considering she did go to Michigan and sent the president to NH in the last weekend. Was that based on how she felt? Come on.
Yep,this why I dont get this.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Wow, that is one ugly map. Even in a wave election, there's no way we'd be able to win that many blood red states. Shit, 2020 it is. :/

The 2018 map looks even worse.

At this point the senate map has finally pretty much settled between red and blue states, with very few competitive seats left anywhere. Probably no one is getting 60 seats until there's a massive realignment.
 

Debirudog

Member
Cesare is just ragin it on and blamin' everything on the woman.

Look, Clinton is flawed and maybe we needed another candidate, but c'mon...
 

faisal233

Member
I'm responding to a person talking about how to reach the 7 million Americans who flipped from Obama to Trump. I'm trying to stay focused on the issues here, but it would help if you read the post.



And yet there are countless people in this thread and others trying to explain them away as being worried about the economy. That's what I'm pushing back against.



First off, as noted by Y2Kev, Nate Cohn is suggesting it wasn't about turnout, it was about flipping voters.

But let's assume that millions of white working-class voters didn't turn out.

In other words, those people decided that people of color's lives and safety weren't important enough for them to show up to the polls.

How can I make common cause with them? My life and safety doesn't even register for them. You want to trick them into accidentally protecting minorities? How can I believe in their solidarity? Why won't they just abandon me again next year?

It does not seem like a good way for me to ensure my own safety.
I'm a brown skinned immigrant and so is my entire 200+ extended family that live in America. I don't care if the rust belt WWC is consumed with their own issues and can't even see mine. I care if they elect progressives that will lookout for my interest. The WWC in WI can't do shit for me in LA personally, but they can protect me from bigots in the White House and Congress by voting.

You want ideological purity.
I want electoral success.

You tell me which will lead to a better life for minorities.
 

Totakeke

Member
I think a bottom-top approach needs to be a priority. All those 8 years have gone to wasted ...the democrats have failed Obama.

I would love for someone to do a detailed analysis on how to go about that because my suspicion is that it doesn't seem like it would work due to demographics and gerrymandering.

Also:
VIfVjZq.png
 

pigeon

Banned
I'm a brown skinned immigrant and so is my entire 200+ extended family that live in America. I don't care if the rust belt WWC is consumed with their own issues and can't even see mine. I care if they elect progressives that will lookout for my interest. The WWC in WI can't do shit for me in LA personally, but they can protect me from bigots in the White House and Congress by voting.

You want ideological purity.
I want electoral success.

You tell me which will lead to a better life for minorities.

You want to win an election.

I want to be able to live safely in America, without being afraid that next election my life could be at risk.

You tell me which will lead to a better life for minorities.
 
Trump immediately pivoting to give banks all the money while gutting all bank regulation is amazing.

There were white people that went from Obama to Trump, but those people are insanely stupid and I'm not sure how you appeal to people that stupid.

Like... if someone voted for Trump because they thought he would be tough on the banks... They're a complete moron. They have no capacity for intelligent thought. How do you appeal to someone who is a dumb fuck?
 

Dierce

Member
Shouldn't you know better than to take as 100% factual every little leak from every corner of the campaign right after a loss?

I don't even know what it means that they didn't run tracking polls. Does that mean they didn't do any polling in October at all? That's hard to believe considering she did go to Michigan and sent the president to NH in the last weekend. Was that based on how she felt? Come on.
My only guess, is if true. They were probably getting results similar to the LA Times poll and they started seeing it as an outlier so they dropped it completely.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Trump immediately pivoting to give banks all the money while gutting all bank regulation is amazing.

There were white people that went from Obama to Trump, but those people are insanely stupid and I'm not sure how you appeal to people that stupid.

Like... if someone voted for Trump because they thought he would be tough on the banks... They're a complete moron. They have no capacity for intelligent thought. How do you appeal to someone who is a dumb fuck?

You give them someone shiny to vote for. Shiny wins elections. We always thought it was policy or something else, but it's the shiny that wins. If you have it you win, if you don't you lose.
 
If Obama voters flipped to Trump in significant numbers, I don't know what a 2020 Democrat win looks like. Because with Obama, they stuck with the "hope and change" candidate in 2012. With Trump, why wouldn't they just stick with the "make america great again" candidate in 2020?

He is far far more unpopular than Obama going in. So far he might lose the popular vote, and a few other big differences. Trump has no real mandate and even Mitch McConnell signaled he isn't going to do everything Trump wants and know their majority might not last.
 
Shouldn't you know better than to take as 100% factual every little leak from every corner of the campaign right after a loss?

I don't even know what it means that they didn't run tracking polls. Does that mean they didn't do any polling in October at all? That's hard to believe considering she did go to Michigan and sent the president to NH in the last weekend. Was that based on how she felt? Come on.

I seem to remember calling a story into question earlier today with regard to people blaming Mook for stuff he didn't even have control of. This is not me blindly reacting to and believing every little story. Knives come out, often vindictive ones. But that article is not an example of that, from what I understand.

I'm mad. A lot of people are mad. A lot of people worked really hard for a decade and just watched that work get erased on Tuesday. How are we supposed to react, knowing that this was botched by Clinton expressing the exact same characteristics that cost her the nomination in 2008?

edit: and I'm drinking. I apologize for my language but those are my views.
 

faisal233

Member
You want to win an election.

I want to be able to live safely in America, without being afraid that next election my life could be at risk.

You tell me which will lead to a better life for minorities.

So you give up the present for some fantasy land ideologically pure future. Got it. Keep protesting on Nov 9th. I want to celebrate on Nov 9th.
 

pigeon

Banned
My only guess, is if true. They were probably getting results similar to the LA Times poll and they started seeing it as an outlier so they dropped it completely.

You have got to be fucking kidding me with this shit.

We're not just doing political fanfic, we're doing dystopian political fanfic.

I am not kidding when I say this is measurably worse than the people saying we should stop caring about people of color.

Nobody knows anything about what happened during the campaign, and nobody knows whether the articles being written are presenting a full and unbiased picture or whether they're deliberate leaks by people with agendas.

But everybody should know that there is nothing productive in talking about potential missteps the campaign made on a process level after the fact.
 
Obama and Trump sure looked chummy today. chalk it up to my naivete or whatever but I hope he can be somewhat of a moderating influence.

Obama wouldn't be that friendly to someone he knew would destroy his legacy would he
 

pigeon

Banned
So you give up the present for some fantasy land ideologically pure future. Got it. Keep protesting on Nov 9th. I want to celebrate on Nov 9th.

I am not saying we should focus on some hypothetical future.

I am saying that talking about ways to win back white nationalists one year doesn't change the fact that people of color cannot live safely in America because there are too many white nationalists in it.

I have not suggested a potential solution. I am not sure there is one.
 

Dierce

Member
You have got to be fucking kidding me with this shit.

We're not just doing political fanfic, we're doing dystopian political fanfic.

I am not kidding when I say this is measurably worse than the people saying we should stop caring about people of color.

Nobody knows anything about what happened during the campaign, and nobody knows whether the articles being written are presenting a full and unbiased picture or whether they're deliberate leaks by people with agendas.

But everybody should know that there is nothing productive in talking about potential missteps the campaign made on a process level after the fact.
I completely agree, was just stating a possible explanation however unlikely. I hope that whatever the truth is, the next Democratic campaign can learn from it and move forward from there.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Obama and Trump sure looked chummy today. chalk it up to my naivete or whatever but I hope he can be somewhat of a moderating influence.

Obama wouldn't be that friendly to someone he knew would destroy his legacy would he

Obama has always taken the higher ground and work with Republicans.
 
Obama and Trump sure looked chummy today. chalk it up to my naivete or whatever but I hope he can be somewhat of a moderating influence.

Obama wouldn't be that friendly to someone he knew would destroy his legacy would he

Obama is pure class. He's not going to give Trump a hard time until Trump is the one actually making the decisions.

And in the end that's probably part of why his legacy will be destroyed.

His legacy isn't going to be destroyed. His executive actions get tossed out, and Obamacare changes a bit, but everything else he did cannot be undone easily and without voters reacting.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
She put her eggs completely in minorities. Don't you dare just blame Hispanics and young voters. She appealed to white women, both with college degrees and without, and 45%/62% of them voted trump. In contrast, only 28%/25% hispanic women voted trump.

She heavily needed the women vote since she was appealing to them the most. And they didn't turn out. Hispanic women did turn out in greater percentages for her instead of Trump. So don't you dare put this on HIspanic voters.

Look, I'm speaking in very large generalities. Lots of people failed to show up.

I'm not trying to blame one group or another, but we keep waiting on a huge wave of hispanic turnout that just has not materialized.
 

Dierce

Member
Obama and Trump sure looked chummy today. chalk it up to my naivete or whatever but I hope he can be somewhat of a moderating influence.

Obama wouldn't be that friendly to someone he knew would destroy his legacy would he
He really doesn't have any other choice. He is probably expecting the worse but hoping for the best like the rest of us.
 

Debirudog

Member
Clinton considered appointing Biden as Secetary of State, the both of them having different views on foreign policy. I don't think she's that prideful or stubborn. She's always known to be listening to other people and working with the other side.
 
I don't think he has the mental capacity to process all the information a president has to process.

It's likely frying his brain, he doesn't know how to handle it. This is the hardest job of his life. He can't just go bankrupt, wash his hands, and forget about it. There's no giving up. He'll be held accountable by the entire country. He'll have to make decisions he doesn't like, meet people he doesn't like, and do things he doesn't want to do. He needs to remember foreign names that are hard to remember. He has to sit down and figure out plans. He needs to balance being in meetings 24/7, with being in the public 24/7. He needs to cope with being watched 100% of the time. Every word he says being recorded. He needs to cope with handing his business over and being unable to even think about them for four years. He needs to realize that many of his private documents are now public record. He now can no longer freely post on Twitter, everything must be approved and recorded. He can only take vacations every so often, but he's always on call. People will criticize his vacations. Everyone will know where and when he will be at all hours of every day for 4 years. There will be times when he goes days without sleeping, but is still expected to be sharp and focused 100% of the time. He'll eat food he won't like in countries he doesn't like. Every aspect of his finances will be audited by several different departments. And this is just the surface. Just wait for the first hurricane. The first terrorist attack. He can't sit at the side lines and whine about Obama doing a bad job. It will be HIS job now. And all eyes will be on him. Lives will be his personal responsibility.

He has NO idea what he's gotten himself into. The presidency isn't for the light hearted or weak willed. It's the hardest job in the country.

Well said. Obama and Michelle Obama have been everything and more. They will be sorely missed. Trump looked like a man child next to him this afternoon. This is going to be the W. Bush presidency times a 100.
 

Boke1879

Member
Obama and Trump sure looked chummy today. chalk it up to my naivete or whatever but I hope he can be somewhat of a moderating influence.

Obama wouldn't be that friendly to someone he knew would destroy his legacy would he

I'll admit it was nice to see him act like a human. But I just believe that was optics and "good" politics. Either way Trump is still going to have to appeal to everyone he offended so we'll see.
 

Grexeno

Member
Wonder if we'll be seeing a lot of "Don't Blame Me, I Was With Her" bumper stickers and "Miss Me Yet?" Obama billboards by 2020.
 

Crocodile

Member
There have been times when Trump has acted human in the past. They are often followed by him going completely off the range however. Let's not be fooled by another on of these "pivots".
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is what Dean built and Obama neglected.

YES. Dean gets a lot of hate around here, but this is absolutely crucial to what is happening now.

This is why I think Harry Reid should be in charge. He's a smart guy.
 

Blader

Member
I liked Hillary Clinton. I wanted her to be president badly. Not just because of Trump, but because of her and because she would further cement Obama's legacy. And I'm not ready to join in with everyone else here and immediately dissect her campaign has completely flawed from top to bottom. For one, it seems to early to really know that fully.

But when I think about her strongest problem -- her inability to communicate in an authentic, inspiring way, even if I thought personally she was authentic -- I think back to this ad.

Like a lot of people, this ad got me really pumped the fuck up. It was a powerful, hype-generating, let's get to work message. Hillary Clinton rolling out her Democratic Justice League.

And now I realize: she's not really in this ad. And my excitement, and everyone else's excitement, over her surrogacy operation was her team of surrogates. We were stoked for Obama and Michelle and Biden and Bernie and Warren. Less so for Hillary. Same thing at the DNC. Fiery, powerful, inspiring, cool as fuck speeches from the Obamas and Biden and Bill. But I think we all knew Hillary was going to be the least cool one; it was going to be fine, it was going to be what she needed to be, but it wasn't going to knock on us on our asses, which is what happened.

I was fine with that. A lot of us were fine with that. The DNC was a huge success for us, Buster protests notwithstanding. But for the more malleable voters, who aren't left-leaning partisans in the tank for Hillary and can even consider Trump, what's fine with us is not enough for them.

I was excited for all of Hillary's surrogates, but much as I wanted her to be president, I was probably the least excited for her rallies and speeches. And that's why 6 million Obama voters didn't come home for a third term.
 
Look, I'm speaking in very large generalities. Lots of people failed to show up.

I'm not trying to blame one group or another, but we keep waiting on a huge wave of hispanic turnout that just has not materialized.

And it probably never will, because Hispanic people also tend to conservative. We're not lopsided Liberals like you make us out to be. A larger hispanic turn out will always be a net gain for both sides.
 
Well said. Obama and Michelle Obama have been everything and more. They will be sorely missed. Trump looked like a man child next to him this afternoon. This is going to be the W. Bush presidency times a 100.

I'm not entirely sure a president's term can get any worse than Bush's second term.

That was major issue after major issue. Just one big giant pile of garbage. Had W been a one term president like his father, he'd likely be better remembered. Most of all the major issues people remember from Bush were from his second term. Just the Patriot Act and the start of the Iraq war (which was popular at the time). He didn't even get a SC justice in his first term.

YES. Dean gets a lot of hate around here, but this is absolutely crucial to what is happening now.

This is why I think Harry Reid should be in charge. He's a smart guy.
...who around here hates Dean??? I have never seen anyone in PoliGaf ever hate on Dean. We were quite happy when he made a speech at the DNC
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/trump-victory-alarms-gay-and-transgender-groups.html

The election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency sent panic through much of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender community, which for the first time in eight years will face an administration hostile to its civil-rights goals and a president-elect who has expressed a desire to reverse many of its political gains.

Jay Brown, a spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest L.G.B.T. rights organization, said its office had received calls throughout the day on Wednesday from frightened people who wanted to know what the election results might mean for them.

Some callers wondered if they should speed up wedding plans so they could be married before the inauguration, in case a President Trump tries to overturn gay marriage, he said. Others worried that the military would reinstate “don’t ask, don’t tell,” the ban on openly gay and lesbian service members that ended in 2011.

“Even if people believe that about Trump, what is true is he will now be held to the G.O.P. platform,” said Rea Carey, the executive director of the National L.G.B.T.Q. Task Force. She called it the most anti-L.G.B.T. platform in recent memory.

Among its provisions: opposition to same-sex marriage, support for state laws limiting which public bathroom transgender people can use, and support for a parent’s right to subject gay and transgender children to “conversion therapy” to change their sexual orientation or gender identity, a practice the Obama administration has said should be banned for minors.

I can't.
 

Barzul

Member
Fuck this must be what it felt like after the Jimmy Carter years. We're in for long one folks. I can't think of any rising stars in the party who are pure. That's what we need. If Kander had won that senate seat, could've been him. It won't be Kamala, trust me the America I live and work in everyday ain't ready to elect a black woman, unless she really is that special. Obama was a maverick, she'd have to be better than him, significantly so. The demographics at the presidential level are there and if someone special comes up we can do it.

What really worries me is, is the Democratic party capable of doing what the GOP just pulled off? A majority in the House, Senate and the Executive. Like I don't know something massive has to happen. Liberal minds are continuously fleeing middle America for the big cities. I think a couple things that we need to figure out how to accomplish in the next 30-40 years. Some things I'd personally like to see, DC and Puerto Rico statehood with the Senate and congressional seats that'll guarantee and carving out a message that cements a huge chunk of millennials in our corner for when we become the dominant voting block.
 
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