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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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shinra-bansho
Member
Trump is going to trumpet to his Trumpeters that he saved jobs, built the wall, stuck it to Cghyna, and drained the swamp regardless of what he actually does. He'll probably say he saved Medicare from Obama when he lets Paul Ryan gut it.
Trump throws the TPP out, it does or doesn't actually do anything for jobs, but he claims he made the best deals, the best deals. Because he's a businessman. Just as he did this election.
Now what do the Democrats run on being against to prove their Make America Great Again bonafides, and magically reverse a 50 year decline in the goods-based employment as a share of the US economy.
Trump throws the TPP out, it does or doesn't actually do anything for jobs, but he claims he made the best deals, the best deals. Because he's a businessman. Just as he did this election.
Now what do the Democrats run on being against to prove their Make America Great Again bonafides, and magically reverse a 50 year decline in the goods-based employment as a share of the US economy.
thehypocrite
Member
Heck if I know who, that's why primaries are held, to allow the process show us the candidate that connects with the most voters.
I don't disagree, but telling them that those jobs are gone for good won't solve their lives problems.
Edit-unless you want them to burn all your nice things, cause nobody is going gently into that night in such a polarized country like this one.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Count update.
Stop doing this to yourself.
Doing what? Updating numbers?
😔
*super tiny avatar quote*
Duh, Trump would because he would campaign in NY and CA.
TumblingHippo
Member
Alright, I've devised a plan to finally clear out my youtube queue from all those bad political recommendations due to watching all those live news streams.
- Queues up a marathon of WatchMojo Top 10s
- Queues up a marathon of WatchMojo Top 10s
That totally would have worked.
Democrats should never stop doing this.
Republicans used Romney's losing percentage to claim they had a mandate, or fucks sake.
I don't believe anything will come of this, but Democrats should never forget that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. By millions. That has never happened before in the history of our country. When the losing candidate walks away with a surplus of votes equaling the entire city of Chicago, our democracy is broken.
Another reason Democrats should not go into a Trump presidency so ready to capitulate. Fuck the electoral college. The people voted for Democrats.
I think mine is pretty cleared out except for recommendations of old Last Week Tonight episodes.
You can't fix them. You need hospice care.
If we had ham we would have ham and eggs if we we had eggs
Just run the same exact campaign but don't use a candidate deeply hated by the media and the FBI
shinra-bansho
Member
The Democratic Primary is close to 60% female and almost 40% minority.
Those jobs are gone and disappearing, whether they're told or not. It apparently offends working class male dignity to retrain to become a nurse or educator, to fuel the continuing growth of the education and health services sectors. Or to take the unskilled service sector jobs.
So that means either tell the bigger lie or tell the better lie. Or I guess there was the proposed massive Federal subsidization of a widget making scheme.
But then that all still brings you up against this:
And pandering to this sentiment, while telling the big lie.
And that Donald Trump has shown how little the electoral penalty is for pandering to it.
http://www.salon.com/2015/11/29/the..._its_really_allergic_to_voting_for_democrats/
UltimaPooh
Member
The Democratic Primary is close to 60% female and almost 40% minority.
Those jobs are gone and disappearing, whether they're told or not. It apparently offends working class male dignity to retrain to become a nurse or educator, to fuel the continuing growth of the education and health services sectors. Or to take the unskilled service sector jobs.
So that means either tell the bigger lie or tell the better lie. Or I guess there was the proposed massive Federal subsidization of a widget making scheme.
But then that all still brings you up against this:
And pandering to this sentiment, while telling the big lie.
And that Donald Trump has shown how little the electoral penalty is for pandering to it.
Is there a link or article to those graphs?
ryutaro's mama
Member
I agree with most of that but posting the margin tweet updates just makes people more miserable. Also, that last part was unfortunately not true down ballot. 😐
We know that Trump doesn't have a mandate--hell, he doesn't even have one in his own "party". 47% of the electorate had no desire to vote so who knows how that breaks down.
I would love to see him campaign in CA in that scenario. We got a taste of it during the general if I recall.
It was true downballot, but with the exact same issues with vote distribution. If America were a country with a popular vote for president and proportional representation for Congress Democrats would control every branch of government.
Which is a point that's going to destabilize the whole "state legitimacy" thing for a lot of people I'm guessing. In the aggregate, that's probably bad too.
I can't know what you're trying to say when you're this snarky other than "you are dumb."
nature boy
Member
He actually would, since he wouldn't have to spend time in Iowa or New Hampshire.
What makes you think California or New York is immune to a populist (and many other ists, believe me) message that everywhere else isn't immune to?
CyclopsRock
Member
Yeah, exactly. If the President was decided by who was best at tiddly-winks, they probably would have spent ages practising tiddlywinks. But that's not how you win a Presidential election, and nor's popular vote. Trump did a better job of the actual thing that wins you the election.
Is there a place I can see popular vote totals for the Senate and House? In the past Democrats have won the House popular vote but lost the House, I'd like to see how things measure up this year.
Edit: I found this https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/93598998/?client=ms-android-google
Indicating Democrats also won the total Senate popular vote but not the House, but the information could be out if date.
Edit: I found this https://www.google.com/amp/amp.usatoday.com/story/93598998/?client=ms-android-google
Indicating Democrats also won the total Senate popular vote but not the House, but the information could be out if date.
RedAssedApe
Banned
lol trump on a early morning twitter tirade again
thehypocrite
Member
The Democratic Primary is close to 60% female and almost 40% minority.
Those jobs are gone and disappearing, whether they're told or not. It apparently offends working class male dignity to retrain to become a nurse or educator, to fuel the continuing growth of the education and health services sectors. Or to take the unskilled service sector jobs.
So that means either tell the bigger lie or tell the better lie. Or I guess there was the proposed massive Federal subsidization of a widget making scheme.
But then that all still brings you up against this:
And pandering to this sentiment, while telling the big lie.
And that Donald Trump has shown how little the electoral penalty is for pandering to it.
http://www.salon.com/2015/11/29/the..._its_really_allergic_to_voting_for_democrats/
I agree with you. But who Am I going to listen with that message, someone that has been maligned for years for their relationship pushing trade agreements in the US that I "feel" wrecked my life and my communities, or someone that has "credibility" and has fought for my cause? If you consider that, you can see why Obama's margins were better than Hillary in this context. Regardless of merits of the claims against Hillary.
Is not about converting/convincing all, is about getting marginal gains with them.
* checks twitter*
Seems there were some new, recent stories about Trump's conflicts of interest. This bitching about the recounts (which are dumb to be fair) seems just an attempt to divert attention. Please don't fall for it of give him praise for being "right" or whatever.
Seems there were some new, recent stories about Trump's conflicts of interest. This bitching about the recounts (which are dumb to be fair) seems just an attempt to divert attention. Please don't fall for it of give him praise for being "right" or whatever.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
He is wrong. Clinton conceded and never suggested anything was amiss with the election. The Democratic party is taking part in the recounts as a procedural thing. This whole thing is dumb
Really not praising him just think this whole recount is so stupid.
For those who just want to catch up on the week.
Good news:
Merkel to seek fourth term as German chancellor
And everything else:
+ [Election] Pat McCrory Lost the North Carolina Governorship. Now He's Trying to Steal It.
+ [Jobs] Coal's Collapse, Economic Anxiety Motivated Ohio Valley Voters And since Election Day, some mining industry supporters have walked back their promises of a coal comeback.
+ [Conflicts of Interest] According to a report out of Argentina, when Argentine President Mauricio Macri called President-Elect Trump to congratulate him on his election, Trump asked Macri to deal with the permitting issues that are currently holding up [a Trump building] project. Three days after the call, the developer announced the project will begin building summer 2017.
+ Tulsi Gabbard meets with Trump; rumored for Secretary of State, UN Ambassador. Notably, she did not sign a letter to Trump denouncing white nationalist Stephen Bannon, which 169 of her colleagues in the House have signed.
+ [Jobs & Government] President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress are drawing up plans to take on the government bureaucracy they have long railed against, by eroding job protections and grinding down benefits that federal workers have received for a generation. Hiring freezes, an end to automatic raises, a green light to fire poor performers, a ban on union business on the governments dime and less generous pensions these are the contours of the blueprint emerging under Republican control of Washington in January.
+ [Net Neutrality] Trump formally named two staunch opponents of net neutrality to oversee his policies for the agency that created the rules to prevent discrimination against Internet sites and online services.
+ Trump makes video update on the "smooth" transition and his first 100 days
+ Trump will not pursue e-mail case against Hillary Clinton.
+ [Tax fraud] Trump Foundation admits to violating ban on 'self-dealing', new filing to IRS shows
+ Donald Trump meets the New York Times for an interview and discusses climate change and foreign policy.
+ [Workers] In a stunning blow to the Obama administration's economic legacy, a federal judge in Texas granted a preliminary injunction Tuesday delaying implementation of a regulation that would extend overtime eligibility to an estimated 4.2 million workers.
+ [Climate Change] Bob Walker, a senior Trump campaign adviser, said there was no need for Nasa to do what he has previously described as "politically correct environmental monitoring".
+ [Transition] Trump Picks Governor Nikki Haley to Be U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.
+ [Transition] Detroit school children have no fundamental right to literacy, according to Gov. Rick Snyder's attorneys.
+ [Election] Wisconsin Agrees To Presidential Vote Recount At Third-Party Candidates' Request The Clinton campaign has stated they will be taking part in the recount. In a post on Medium, Marc Elias, the campaign's counsel, said the campaign's own investigation has not uncovered any evidence of hacking of voting systems. Elias wrote that while the campaign was not going to contest the results itself, it has decided now to take part in the effort to "ensure that it is fair to all sides."
+ Fidel Castro dies at 90
+ [Election] Louisiana senate runoff election is going to be held on 10 Dec 2016 between Foster Campbell (D) and John Kennedy (R). Early voting is go right now.
Additional reading
+ Americas Not a Democracy
+ Stop Calling It Identity Politics. It's Civil Rights.
+ The States That College Graduates Are Most Likely to Leave
+ Researchers Stephen Clarke and Dan Tomlinson looked at the effect of income on Trumps support and, at a surface level, found a correlation between income in a particular area and support for Donald Trump. But when they took a closer look, they found that this effect was less powerful than it seems. Instead, sociodemographic factors, particularly race and education, ended up being more important explanations of the unexpected Trump surge.
Good news:
Merkel to seek fourth term as German chancellor
And everything else:
+ [Election] Pat McCrory Lost the North Carolina Governorship. Now He's Trying to Steal It.
+ [Healthcare] In Depressed Rural Kentucky, Worries Mount Over Medicaid Cutbacks
+ [Jobs] Coal's Collapse, Economic Anxiety Motivated Ohio Valley Voters And since Election Day, some mining industry supporters have walked back their promises of a coal comeback.
+ [Conflicts of Interest] According to a report out of Argentina, when Argentine President Mauricio Macri called President-Elect Trump to congratulate him on his election, Trump asked Macri to deal with the permitting issues that are currently holding up [a Trump building] project. Three days after the call, the developer announced the project will begin building summer 2017.
+ Tulsi Gabbard meets with Trump; rumored for Secretary of State, UN Ambassador. Notably, she did not sign a letter to Trump denouncing white nationalist Stephen Bannon, which 169 of her colleagues in the House have signed.
+ [Jobs & Government] President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress are drawing up plans to take on the government bureaucracy they have long railed against, by eroding job protections and grinding down benefits that federal workers have received for a generation. Hiring freezes, an end to automatic raises, a green light to fire poor performers, a ban on union business on the governments dime and less generous pensions these are the contours of the blueprint emerging under Republican control of Washington in January.
+ [Net Neutrality] Trump formally named two staunch opponents of net neutrality to oversee his policies for the agency that created the rules to prevent discrimination against Internet sites and online services.
+ Trump makes video update on the "smooth" transition and his first 100 days
+ Trump will not pursue e-mail case against Hillary Clinton.
+ [Tax fraud] Trump Foundation admits to violating ban on 'self-dealing', new filing to IRS shows
+ Donald Trump meets the New York Times for an interview and discusses climate change and foreign policy.
+ [Workers] In a stunning blow to the Obama administration's economic legacy, a federal judge in Texas granted a preliminary injunction Tuesday delaying implementation of a regulation that would extend overtime eligibility to an estimated 4.2 million workers.
+ [Climate Change] Bob Walker, a senior Trump campaign adviser, said there was no need for Nasa to do what he has previously described as "politically correct environmental monitoring".
+ [Transition] Trump Picks Governor Nikki Haley to Be U.S. Ambassador to the U.N.
+ [Transition] Detroit school children have no fundamental right to literacy, according to Gov. Rick Snyder's attorneys.
+ [Election] Wisconsin Agrees To Presidential Vote Recount At Third-Party Candidates' Request The Clinton campaign has stated they will be taking part in the recount. In a post on Medium, Marc Elias, the campaign's counsel, said the campaign's own investigation has not uncovered any evidence of hacking of voting systems. Elias wrote that while the campaign was not going to contest the results itself, it has decided now to take part in the effort to "ensure that it is fair to all sides."
+ Fidel Castro dies at 90
+ [Election] Louisiana senate runoff election is going to be held on 10 Dec 2016 between Foster Campbell (D) and John Kennedy (R). Early voting is go right now.
Additional reading
+ Americas Not a Democracy
+ [Healthcare & Charts] Trump succeeds where health is failing. According to our model, if diabetes were just 7% less prevalent in Michigan, Mr Trump would have gained 0.3 fewer percentage points there, enough to swing the state back to the Democrats.
+ Stop Calling It Identity Politics. It's Civil Rights.
+ The States That College Graduates Are Most Likely to Leave
+ Researchers Stephen Clarke and Dan Tomlinson looked at the effect of income on Trumps support and, at a surface level, found a correlation between income in a particular area and support for Donald Trump. But when they took a closer look, they found that this effect was less powerful than it seems. Instead, sociodemographic factors, particularly race and education, ended up being more important explanations of the unexpected Trump surge.
It's not like they weren't exposed to it. He did better among rural whites even in places where he didn't spend much time. It wasn't about where he was physically campaigning, it was about the message.
His message was tailor-made for rural whites, but the message that he would've needed to gain votes in NY and CA (more like a Mark Cuban persona, laying off the white nationalism) would have lost him those places. And I don't think it would've been enough.
/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7527797/Senate_races.png)
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Yup. Feingold's loss is the enormous egg on my face after this whole election. I was so sure, so certain, that his popularity among Wisconsin Democrats was so great it would actively energize people who were even apathetic about Clinton.
I was 100% wrong
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
This is really the key for me:
Again, it points to the need for different candidates for different areas. Republicans have the advantage because they seem to be able to run hard right candidates more frequently than democrats can run hard left candidates. Democrats have to start building up moderate candidates to run in these areas.
balladofwindfishes
Member
The followers of Saint Bernard who want purity tests and a hard shift to the Left to win elections need to look at this data and realize it isn't going to happen. America isn't going to shift hard left and there isn't some untapped voting block of hard lefties just waiting for the Democrats to go even more left to vote for them.
And if they do exist, until these people become reliable voters no sensible politician is going to shackle themselves to them.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
Love this article. I've talked about this before, but the Identity Politics hottake is fucking embarrassing.
RedAssedApe
Banned
The word I use is "revealing."
TestOfTide
Banned
I agree that we can't run hard left if we want to recover.
But I disagree about the possibility of untapped left leaning voters.
There are absolutely an untapped liberal and progressive chunk this election, but the way to tap into them isn't by running a Bernie Sanders. You tap into those voters by running a New Blood democrat. Obama was able to tap into them. Harris and Masto could tap into them.
And like Obama did with Biden, you check off the "experience" box by having some experienced old white dude as VP. Sheldon Whitehouse would be a great example.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if some those articles about Civil Rights dragging Hillary down were written in advance. I remember seeing some people at OT stopping short of posting theses the moment the projected winner was announced.
Good Job Bob
Member
Anyone saying that Dems everywhere should run on full fledged economic populism is taking the piss. But I hope one does not look at this data and get the impression that Dems should moderate in Ohio and Wisconsin. Sherrod Brown is obviously an economic populist, and Tammy Baldwin has a voting record to the left of Sanders according to DW-NOMINATE. What happened to Russ Feingold this year is a head scratcher (Ted Strickland not so much, that was never a competitive race), but he is still a solid model of the type of candidate Wisconsin Dems should be running.
I think the problem is really just that people didn't view Hillary has likable and trustworthy. The #1 predictor through the primaries in the exit polling was that "honest and trustworthy" stat. Whenever Hillary came close to or beat Bernie, he got demolished. Whenever he had a big lead there, she got wiped out. The pattern seems to hold in all the rust belt states.
I'm sure some of it is economic anxiety but I bet a lot of the economically anxious also saw major issues with her message on trade...which happened to be very disingenuous.
I'm sure some of it is economic anxiety but I bet a lot of the economically anxious also saw major issues with her message on trade...which happened to be very disingenuous.
One takeaway might be that you shouldn't expect people to put more effort into their responses than you do.
Another might be that we already have Kristoffer to post obviously facile and false hot takes and don't need two!
Edit: I forgot he got permaed. Just go with the first takeaway.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The Feingold thing is worrying. I would have thought every Wisconsin citizen who voted for Clinton would be onboard with Feingold. I have no explanation for it.
Unlike Rick Astley and Melania Trump, they WILL always let you down.
TestOfTide
Banned
It's because there were many moderate conversatives across the country who voted for Clinton, but voted republican elsewhere.
Combine that with all the diehard conservatives that Trump got to turnout in rural areas, and it's not hard to see how Feingold lost.
Except they didn't let us down in 2008. They managed to turnout for Obama in record numbers.
And before you say it, I refuse to believe that Obama is the only person capable of making these people turn out to vote.
A certain candidate loses and everyone says she's the wrong candidate for the time, but Russ Feingold loses and he's somehow still the "solid model of the type of candidate WI Dems should be running"? lol
Don't be looking at 2012 or 2014 over results from 2016, which clearly represent a more updated data and look at the populace.
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