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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
We can't win state, house, senate or presidency but need to worry about passing a constitutional amendment...

We can effectively get rid of it via the interstate popular vote compact.
It's more, "let's not forget it needs to go", rather then "we need to make it a priority" to get rid of it.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Exits are just kinda bad in general.
Their biggest problem is they're too non-white, young and educated with the latter two being the most overrepresented.

All we have to work with is exit polls and demographic data, which will take time to go through before making more accurate estimations.
 

geomon

Member
Many Trump supporters willing to let him pick and choose what promises to fulfill

Terry said he has no problem with Trump’s pick for treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive and Hollywood producer who co-founded a bank during the financial crisis that foreclosed on thousands of homeowners.

“Let’s face it, he’s going to look out for corporations, to make things work for them, to bring jobs back home,” Terry said. “And as things trickle down — as they’re going to because it’s America — the little guy will get something, too.”

For secretary of state, Meyer said she hopes Trump will ultimately pick someone like former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who stood by Trump when few would, or retired Gen. David Petraeus, who pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of mishandling classified material and is still on probation.

“He paid the price,” said Meyer, who lives across the river from Cincinnati in northern Kentucky. “When you pay the price, then you’re forgiven. And he did a fraction of what Hillary did.”

adQ6hy9.gif


Fuck these people man, I am so done with this shit!
 

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
It's kind of a bummer seeing some people on social media hold out hope for the Electoral College to change their vote. Like, they know it's not going to happen right? It's just a form of protest and not something they think will actually happen?

Personally, I'm just trying to be hopeful that our first war in the next couple of years won't be that bad. Maybe the first couple wars will be lighthearted affairs against countries Trump just made up.

IT should happen. This man has no idea how such a simple thing can have devastating consequences
 
Yeah. You should probably temper any expectations of buyer's remorse and backlash.

A turn against the GOP in 2018 is possible but it won't be from turning these people.
 
This is I guess the Democratic version of make America great again. The New Deal wasn't universal in its application. And the reason it fell apart is similar to the reason that means testing doesn't go down well with a lot of white voters.

A long excerpt from a 2008 working paper by Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz.

An alternate view. Blacks were also moving into the (still super racist) Democratic party started in 1936 when FDR won the majority of the black vote and not just with LBJ in 1964 as it's often implied, for example, which goes against the weirdly common 2016 idea that somehow most black people are opposed to these types of ideas because it's "class-only leftism".

In addition, though it wasn't the majority, plenty of white and/or manual labor folks still voted Democrat in 1976 so it's not like it completely dropped off a cliff because of burning bras. Of course, some of them went to Reagan in 1980, but it's not like Carter did anything to actually keep them in the first place (at best, Carter ignored union support, and at worst, actively fought against them), and Carter also presided over a bad economy. So some people went to Reagan, but a lot of them actually just stopped voting.

So I don't think the slide of Democrats and certain white voters away from strong class politics and unions was some sort of unavoidable result of their embrace of feminism/antiracism. Democrats, especially starting around 1976, actively embraced...oh my god...I'm gonna say it...guys don't hate me...neoliberalism (that totally made up term that only started being used by Berniebros in 2016), and they weren't just forced into it. I could see an argument that it was maybe electorally necessary to do so in the 80's and 90's, but I don't see that as very convincing in 2016, post housing crash, post economic crash, post Trump, etc.

For example, this statement:

The uncomplicated commitments to government spending, economic regulation and labor unions that had defined the Democrats’ progressivism for over thirty years suddenly provided little guidance for dealing with an explosion of potential new constituencies for the party. Their demands for equality, and for a better, as opposed to merely richer, life were starting to redefine what progressivism meant and the Democrats had to struggle to catch up.

Seems to frame "commitments to government spending, economic regulation, and labor unions" as somehow inherently in opposition to feminism and antiracism, even though there's no reason to assume that's true.

What seems more likely is that the Democratic Party either failed at connecting labor unionism and antiracism/feminism, or they ignored or fought against unionism and other typically "leftist" policies in the pursuit of a different electoral coalition. Even now, when there are unions composed of women and/or people of color, the Democratic Party may feature them on a random issue page as a token measure of support, but are hesitant (or simply just don't know how) to actually build a campaign around those workers and their views (which is probably why "middle-class" as a term has become so common in political speak, as opposed to "working-class") and why there's still this obsession with the mythical "moderates and centrists" as opposed to trying to win, I dunno, the masses of people that don't vote.

And this statement:

And indeed that turned out to be the case with the nomination and disastrous defeat of George McGovern–who enthusiastically embraced the new direction taken by the party–in 1972. McGovern’s commitment to the traditional Democratic welfare state was unmistakable. But so was his commitment to all the various social movements and constituencies that were re-shaping the party, whose demands were enshrined in McGovern’s campaign platform. That made it easy for the Nixon campaign to typecast McGovern as the candidate of “acid, amnesty and abortion”. The white working class reacted accordingly and gave Nixon overwhelming support at the polls, casting 70 percent of their votes for the Republican candidate.

Ignores that Nixon was working under a better economy that he could take credit for in addition to the usual Southern Strategy stuff. And another obvious point, but not all white working class live in the South, so there's that as well. And as linked earlier, a relatively higher percentage of white voters voted for Carter 4 years later, so it wasn't exactly an instant and permanent loss for Democrats. And another obvious point, the political environment in 1972 isn't the same as the political environment in 2016.

As a general note, I guess this is where I'm confused. A lot of comments and arguments I've seen basically seem to boil down to this sort of fatalism: "The New Deal wasn't universal in its application...and means testing doesn't go down well with white people in 1972...so let's push for more means-testing in 2016 and hope enough white people die off so that their vote no longer matters as much?" That's an admittedly crude representation of the usual "demographics" argument, but that seems to be the underlying implication of that typical form of politics.

Why doesn't "Let's take the positive universal ideas of the New Deal, but this time, be genuinely committed to it being universal in its actual implementation" not seem to even be on the table? Do people just not think that kind of politics is possible due to the behavior of individual white voters in Ohio?

Or do people think the usual Democratic policies proposed nowadays are actual successors to the ideas of the New Deal and are already good enough? I guess that's where I'll have to agree to disagree...

(And this isn't even getting into the common framing I've seen where it's implied that the "good, non-racist whites" now all vote Democrat, and the "bad, racist whites" all vote Republican.)

Sirpopopop said:
The phrase, "Define far left" has been invoked so many times that I think the very fact of using that phrase should indicate the person who invoked it is far left.

I mean sure, I would probably be considered "far left" by a lot of people. That doesn't really bother me :p

Though I notice that a lot of people who throw out "far left" just assume that the definition they have in mind 100% applies in all cases or that individual citizens have a perfect conception of what it means to be left/center/right. It was "far left" 10 years ago to support gay rights, and now it's considered "obvious" by a lot of Democrats and gay marriage is now the law of the land that a relatively conservative Supreme Court agrees with (though in some respects, you can argue that gay marriage is a fundamentally conservative view as policy, even though it doesn't map to our current electorate in that way). It was considered "far right" to try to do anything negative to Social Security, yet Obama spent part of his time trying to reach a "Grand Bargain" on it and cut some benefits. Cutting welfare benefits was something that right-wingers would dream about, but a "left" president supported and signed it into law. A lot of self-identified conservatives praise Medicare and Social Security which were also "far left" ideas at one point. Marijuana legalization was often considered "far left". Or was it libertarian, which is "far right"? Either way, it's increasingly gaining support in many states.

So that's why I always wonder, maybe just saying something is "far left/right" doesn't necessarily map 100% to a position's political success, or who will ultimately support it, and there are a lot of other (arguably more important) factors at play? Republicans sure don't let that stop them, so it's weird to see liberals actively shrink from it, even though they have a far more moral and political case for left "extremism" (I use that term loosely, since we're not exactly talking about communism and seizing the means of production here).

Is the ACA "far left"? Republicans certainly paint it that way, because it's politically useful for them to do so, but in the grand spectrum of political imagination, it obviously isn't. The ACA is "far left" within the context of Democratic/Republican party politics in 2016, sure, but this obviously isn't a static thing. So why should we pretend like "far left" is some universally agreed upon thing that can never be changed?

dramatis said:
I feel like something that people never understand is how minorities and women are not mainstream or establishment or whatever label you would like to give them in the government. They never acknowledge the extra work minorities and women have to put in to be equals, and they never apologize for the smears.

I guess if you want to be technical, her actual viewpoints and policy ideas that she holds are well within the mainstream of Democratic 2016 viewpoints. The entire premise of her candidacy is that she knew the system and how to get things done within it, and her views won't rock the boat too much. In addition, Only 8% of Democrats had no opinion of her or didn't hear of her at the start of the primaries. She often ran with a message that she would continue the previous 8 years of policy from the current president of the United States. She's been a known figure in national politics for 20+ years. That all seems pretty solidly mainstream.

I don't know why you're turning that basic observation into the idea that I'm somehow criticizing her hard work in the past. Any sexism she has to deal with doesn't somehow invalidate the fact that she's still a mainstream Democrat. Will Smith is still a mainstream actor even if #oscarssowhite. Obama is still a mainstream Democrat even if he has to deal with racism from right-wingers. They lack privilege in some areas, but hold a ton of privilege in other areas. Intersectionality!
 

geomon

Member
Trickle down does not WORK!

Fuck sake.

"Because it's America"

I mean what kind of fucking argument is that? That screams religious nonsense reasoning to me, like we're going to cure cancer because "God". No, that's not how this shit works and if it was just this guy saying this, I could dismiss it without a problem but it's not just this guy. It's millions of these fucking people that hurt the rest of us.
 

royalan

Member
Holy fuck, the more I read and hear about this Trump call with the President of Taiwan, the more I'm hit over the head with how big a deal this is.

How can we swear this man in?

At what point does the electoral college realize that THIS moment is why they exist?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Holy fuck, the more I read and hear about this Trump call with the President of Taiwan, the more I'm hit over the head with how big a deal this is.

How can we swear this man in?

At what point does the electoral college realize that THIS moment is why they exist?

The scary thing isn't so much the phone call (if it's possible I'd hope Obama was able to walk it back) but the reason it was made. Is it because Trump has business interests in Taiwan? If it is we're all fucked, because if that's what is driving his foreign policy decisions it ain't good.
 

studyguy

Member
The thread about it on OT is a dumpster fire for the most part.
The worst part is I can't tell whether someone on his team knowingly went ahead and let him take the call with the intention of kicking the international beehive or whether he was simply that stupid. I refuse to believe he simply took a random call of the probably hundreds he likely receives on the daily from international heads of state so I have to assume it was intentional. To have a president-elect, a man not even in power, who has basically eschewed forming any real international policy or forgoes intelligence briefings... Someone had to have basically handed Trump a phone and went, here take this call and just walked away knowing what would happen.

Then again if the answer is simply Trump has dealings out there he wanted to push them oblivious of the agreements in place with Taiwan, then fuck man. We really are screwed.
 
Just like his advisors can't stop from tweeting, I fear the kind of calls Trump with make with other foreign leaders whenever he feels like it.

To be perfectly honest I don't think he has any intention of stirring shit up. The idea that it was more about business makes more sense.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The thread about it on OT is a dumpster fire for the most part.
The worst part is I can't tell whether someone on his team knowingly went ahead and let him take the call with the intention of kicking the international beehive or whether he was simply that stupid. I refuse to believe he simply took a random call of the probably hundreds he likely receives on the daily from international heads of state so I have to assume it was intentional. To have a president-elect, a man not even in power, who has basically eschewed forming any real international policy or forgoes intelligence briefings... Someone had to have basically handed Trump a phone and went, here take this call and just walked away knowing what would happen.

CNN reported on Lemon tonight they heard he's the one that asked for the call. Don mentions it in his talk with Zakaria. So now the worry is why he asked for it.
 
Just like his advisors can't stop from tweeting, I fear the kind of calls Trump with make with other foreign leaders whenever he feels like it.

To be perfectly honest I don't think he has any intention of stirring shit up. The idea that it was more about business makes more sense.

This is why the Hamilton story scared the shit out of me. How the fuck is somebody who's petty enough to whine about a broadway show going to handle something as thorny as foreign affairs with any delicacy?
 

studyguy

Member
It could be he recognized the name and is stupid. It could also be he's got business interests in Taiwan. I don't know about you, but I'm not sure which one I'd prefer at this point.

Like just second guess yourself for whatever he does, that last part was literally a throwaway edit of a thought I guessed. Whatever your second, less reasonable conclusion is, it's probably closer to reality with this guy it seems.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Like just second guess yourself for whatever he does, that last part was literally a throwaway edit of a thought I guessed. Whatever your second, less reasonable conclusion is, it's probably closer to reality with this guy it seems.

Well it seems like it got smoothed over as best it could, if China's statement on the issue is anything to go by. I'm assuming Obama got on the phone and said Trump probably didn't know and China decided deescalating the situation was the right move for now.

Well, there's a Trump Hotel executive who paid a visit to Taipei and Hong Kong in October: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3230995-10-Anne-Marie-Donoghue-Trump.html

Well, I guess that answers that. I completely forgot about this.
 

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
And the White House reaffirmed the US support of the one-China policy. It's probably safe to assume Obama had something to do with this.


But thisnis trump we are taking about


Trump: WHAT DO THEY MEAN I WAS TRICKED?!
I WAS NEVER TRICKED!


I can see that happening soon. Especially is the press push on it.
 
Yeah. You should probably temper any expectations of buyer's remorse and backlash.

A turn against the GOP in 2018 is possible but it won't be from turning these people.

I'm hopeful that these faithful in 2018 will be dejected to the point they just don't even show up for midterms to vote. Hope the invers happens for dems and they have record turnout to right this mess. That wild be a perfect storm for dems
 

Kid Heart

Member
I assume Obama's already sat him down and explained this shit to him.

Maybe he should make a crash course video for the public too while he's at it. Based on some of the responses I've seen a lot of people don't understand the nuances of the situation. :/
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
Maybe he should make a crash course video for the public too while he's at it. Based on some of the responses I've seen a lot of people don't understand the nuances of the situation. :/

I'm going to go ahead and assume that the vast, vast majority of adults don't understand how foreign policy or diplomacy works. It's exceptionally complex and steeped in so much history.
 

Kid Heart

Member
It'd be like a 4 hour feature film.

Maybe if you add in some Transformers and Michael Bay explosions people will watch it anyway?

I took a course in college on the history of China's economy, which included discussing the country's political history, as well as Taiwan. We even watched some footage from around the civil war. Sometimes I really forget these sort of things aren't common knowledge to a lot of people.

I'm going to go ahead and assume that the vast, vast majority of adults don't understand how foreign policy or diplomacy works. It's exceptionally complex and steeped in so much history.

Probably not, and what worries me is I think Trump is among those people. I just wish more people realized that even things that may seem small at first could eventually lead to large consequences. :/
 

Pixieking

Banned
I'm going to go ahead and assume that the vast, vast majority of adults don't understand how foreign policy or diplomacy works. It's exceptionally complex and steeped in so much history.

Another reason to think that after a Trump presidency, people are going to be fed-up of the "outsider" candidate, and want someone who at least has some establishment cred. The general populace can whine and complain that Hillary was "just as bad", but you can bet that she would never have made a diplomatic faux pas like this.

Question: How much of a cock-up does Trump have to make on the world-stage before his supporters will realise he's making the US look stupid? I get the impression that Make America Great Again also includes making it look strong and intelligent in world-affairs, but that might be reading too much into it?
 
Another reason to think that after a Trump presidency, people are going to be fed-up of the "outsider" candidate, and want someone who at least has some establishment cred. The general populace can whine and complain that Hillary was "just as bad", but you can bet that she would never have made a diplomatic faux pas like this.

Question: How much of a cock-up does Trump have to make on the world-stage before his supporters will realise he's making the US look stupid? I get the impression that Make America Great Again also includes making it look strong and intelligent in world-affairs, but that might be reading too much into it?

You think those idiots are thinking that far?
 

Pixieking

Banned
You think those idiots are thinking that far?

Well, there's a difference between thinking ahead and watching on Fox that Trump has made America a laughing stock, right? They may not have explicitly thought about it before, but that doesn't mean they won't be affected by Trump being an idiot in front of international leaders?
 
Another reason to think that after a Trump presidency, people are going to be fed-up of the "outsider" candidate, and want someone who at least has some establishment cred. The general populace can whine and complain that Hillary was "just as bad", but you can bet that she would never have made a diplomatic faux pas like this.

Question: How much of a cock-up does Trump have to make on the world-stage before his supporters will realise he's making the US look stupid? I get the impression that Make America Great Again also includes making it look strong and intelligent in world-affairs, but that might be reading too much into it?

If by realize you mean just quietly turn their heads away and deflect the blame after he's out of office?
 

I hate this country.

how is is that people still fall for this shit after decades of it not working

The worst education system in the developed world plus decades of brainwashing and propaganda.

Holy fuck, the more I read and hear about this Trump call with the President of Taiwan, the more I'm hit over the head with how big a deal this is.

How can we swear this man in?

At what point does the electoral college realize that THIS moment is why they exist?

The Electoral College is made up of average people, not wise professionals. For example, there's a 19-year-old elector. Becoming an elector is about your political connections, just like being a delegate to the party conventions.

It could be he recognized the name and is stupid. It could also be he's got business interests in Taiwan. I don't know about you, but I'm not sure which one I'd prefer at this point.

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3031091

He wants to build a luxury hotel at a luxury development adjoining a major airport.

Edit:
Another reason to think that after a Trump presidency, people are going to be fed-up of the "outsider" candidate, and want someone who at least has some establishment cred. The general populace can whine and complain that Hillary was "just as bad", but you can bet that she would never have made a diplomatic faux pas like this.

Question: How much of a cock-up does Trump have to make on the world-stage before his supporters will realise he's making the US look stupid? I get the impression that Make America Great Again also includes making it look strong and intelligent in world-affairs, but that might be reading too much into it?

They might, for a brief period. The problem is they'll be back to normal after four to eight years. If things don't fall apart, his supporters will say "See? He wasn't so bad." Making America Great Again was always about appearing strong and forcing our will upon other the world. If the rest of the world starts to ignore us or moderately accommodates Trump, it'll be seen as a victory.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
The bit on Maddow tonight about him refusing intel briefings while also refusing state dept help is especially unnerving when you combine it with the speed at which he's making "mistakes" with nuclear-armed allies.
 
You seem to be interpreting those excerpts as reasoning for an unavoidable shift away from leftist/union-driven policies. It isn't. It's not an explanation for why the Democratic Party embraced a more open economy. It's not an explanation for the decline of unions.

It's explanation of the shift of the WWC away from the Democrats, despite still being the more naturally allied party.

I don't really know what to call going from majorities among WWC to averaging in the 30s maybe 40s at best if not a collapse. It was previously driven largely by the Southern states. This time it was a shift in Northern states too, for in part, big or small depending on one's view, the same reasons. Racial resentment.

I think you're being incredibly, incredibly generous in trying to attribute this slide to a more wholehearted embrace of free market economics instead.

You wonder why there's push back against the idea of going back to the simplicity of just talking about the problems of the (white) working class. (In an age with severely weakened organised labour, highly interconnected and interdependent economies, and rapidly advancing technological change compounding all these problems). And it's right there in bold. This harking back to the good ol' days, essentially strikes a lot of people who are of a minority group, while it may not strike you as part of one, as implicitly denying all the changes for the better that have been fought for and need to be defended for these groups.

It's not just about a richer life, it's about a better one.

By all means, push for a new New Deal, see if that wins out in the Primary contest of approach. A truly universal one. And see how well it fares if there is, as one would expect with universality, explicit, or probably even implicit, notion that this social welfare net will be of benefit to minorities.

Does the new New Deal still expect equal pay for women. Does the new New Deal care at all about immigration reform. Does the new New Deal still think Black Lives Matter. Because if it does, again, it will be interesting to see how it fares talking about these issues.

It was mentioned before, but it's telling we're talking about the white working class exclusively. The other working class all vote Democratic. And it's not a wonder why.
 

Supast4r

Junior Member
This is why the Hamilton story scared the shit out of me. How the fuck is somebody who's petty enough to whine about a broadway show going to handle something as thorny as foreign affairs with any delicacy?
This is what broke the camals back for you about Trump? Not his years or sexist and racist speech?
 
This is what broke the camals back for you about Trump? Not his years or sexist and racist speech?

Absolutely not.

It was more like a yeah, this is seriously going to be the next 4-8 years, goddammit America moment

I don't envy whoever has to come after Trump, because they're basically going to have to do janitorial duty on both the domestic and foreign stage.
 
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