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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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hawk2025

Member
Also I'm a big dummy. I actually made 6 dollars profit on Predictit on 20 dollars first starting out and then I went in put all my money on extremely risky places... ugh. I'm the worst.

I'm really scared to put more money on there cause I only get paid minimum wage.

Dude...

Don't gamble on minimum wage, c'mon.
 

royalan

Member
Only prediction: Trump's going to lose two states. Texas being one of them, the other being a breakfast cereal mystery prize.

I just feel it.
 

Teggy

Member
Wow, so the conventions are taking place 1.5 months earlier than 2012. The general election is going to be loooong.

Rachel discussing how the changes in the Republican primary totally backfired on them.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We may see a literal riot at the convention if delegates go against the will of the people that voted Trump. The party would be ireevocably damaged.
 

danm999

Member
So I'm wondering if quick calls in primaries in East Coast Super Tuesday states are going to inspire or demoralise people in the mid western caucuses.
 
Sanders final February haul was $41.5MM.

I wonder how many are repeat donors and whether this has pushed more into the $200< bracket and consequently no longer considered "small donors".
 

Muzy72

Banned
So excited, casting my first vote for president tomorrow!!!

Thought about voting for Trump since Hillary doesn't need me here in Texas, but do I really want my first vote for president to be Drumpf.
 

BSsBrolly

Banned
If these debates did anything for me, they made me extremely comfortable that Hillary will eat Trump, Cruz, or Rubio alive in a debate. No doubt in my mind.
 

teiresias

Member
qFezera.png


Yes. Stop letting Bill do interviews.

Is it bad that I read "What can be done?" in my head in the voice of a female Emperor Palpatine?
 

Slayven

Member
Bernie supporters got to learn to stop attacking folk's blackness when they don't support Bernie. Instead of engaging them and asking them why they don't support him, they lose their ever loving mind and go tinfoil hat.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Is there a table out there showing all the campaign stops for the candidates and where they and their pacs are spending money? That would help my predictions.

Using the Five Thirty Eight model and my own judgement I expect the following:

Democrats
Alabama: Clinton
American Samoa: Clinton
Arkansas: Clinton
Colorado: Sanders (close race)
Georgia: Clinton
Massachusetts: Clinton
Minnesota: Sanders
Oklahoma: Sanders
Tennessee: Clinton
Texas: Clinton
Vermont: Sanders
Virginia: Clinton


Republicans
Alabama: Trump
Alaska: Trump (close race)
Arkansas: Cruz
Georgia: Trump
Massachusetts: Trump
Minnesota: Rubio (why not)
Oklahoma: Trump
Tennessee: Trump
Texas: Cruz
Vermont: Trump
Virginia: Trump
 
Still surprised Oklahoma is not firmly Trump territory. In 2008, it was one of the few regions in the entire US that became more Republican compared to 2004.
 

Slayven

Member
But he walked with MLK tho

Not touching that


But I knew he was out of it when he signed up Cornell West. No body fucks with him because he lost his mind 8 years ago and lives only to shit on Obama. The man's hate for Obama could power a small city.

Black people aren't a monolith, but I think it is safe to say Obama is pretty well liked among them.
 

Iolo

Member
So excited, casting my first vote for president tomorrow!!!

Thought about voting for Trump since Hillary doesn't need me here in Texas, but do I really want my first vote for president to be Drumpf.

On the off chance he wins in November, could you live with yourself knowing you helped bring it about?
 
Bernie supporters got to learn to stop attacking folk's blackness when they don't support Bernie. Instead of engaging them and asking them why they don't support him, they lose their ever loving mind and go tinfoil hat.
How about we start with Cornel West?

Edit: Just saw that you were actually talking about him.
 

Iolo

Member
Sanders final February haul was $41.5MM.

I wonder how many are repeat donors and whether this has pushed more into the $200< bracket and consequently no longer considered "small donors".

Which Kickstarter is more likely to be delayed past 2016, Star Citizen or the Sanders revolution
 
It's like Bernie's pulling money out of thin air at this point.
It's insane (impressive) and his supporters are vey loyal with their donations. I saw the subreddit the other day and there were like 2 or 3 threads about donations and asking others to match after the SC loss.
 

Holmes

Member
So excited, casting my first vote for president tomorrow!!!

Thought about voting for Trump since Hillary doesn't need me here in Texas, but do I really want my first vote for president to be Drumpf.
Make it someone you won't be ashamed of when you look back on it.
 
Bernie supporters got to learn to stop attacking folk's blackness when they don't support Bernie. Instead of engaging them and asking them why they don't support him, they lose their ever loving mind and go tinfoil hat.

The only answer I've ever gotten when asking why Black Voters prefer Hillary over Bernie is some convoluted answer about how Bernie allegedly talks down to Minorities. The go to seems to be "Hillary speaks to the issues that Black Voters care about", and when asked what those issues are it's usually crickets.
 

Cerium

Member
Also I'm a big dummy. I actually made 6 dollars profit on Predictit on 20 dollars first starting out and then I went in put all my money on extremely risky places... ugh. I'm the worst.

I'm really scared to put more money on there cause I only get paid minimum wage.

Yikes. You probably shouldn't gamble if you're that tight on cash.

May I ask which markets you put money in?
 
I have a sneaking suspicion Clinton only raised like half that. (But also only spent like half that, so her campaign is perfectly fine financially.)

And in contrast to Sanders her big win, rather than bring a surge of donations actually does the opposite. Donors don't want to waste their money on the Primary when they can save it for the General.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
How in the world is Sanders raising that much money? That is really insane. I mean, hopefully he can fundraise for Hilldawg in the general. Good lawd.
 

Slayven

Member
The only answer I've ever gotten when asking why Black Voters prefer Hillary over Bernie is some convoluted answer about how Bernie allegedly talks down to Minorities. The go to seems to be "Hillary speaks to the issues that Black Voters care about", and when asked what those issues are it's usually crickets.

I think the perfect example is back during the last townhall, a black woman asked Hillary a question about her hair not being acceptable in work places. Hillary then answered her question with nuance and details, citing systematic racism and the steps that need to combat it.

Really Hillary is a great speaker, she knows her shit and how to put it into a informing lecture.

But at the same townhall when asked about a race question, Bernie just went into the wall street speech again.

Someone on here put it best when they said to most minority voters Wall Street is like the giant that lives over the mountain, they know it is there but casts a tiny shadow on the things that worry them from day to day.
 
So excited, casting my first vote for president tomorrow!!!

Thought about voting for Trump since Hillary doesn't need me here in Texas, but do I really want my first vote for president to be Drumpf.

I know it's a strategy thing, but I have to say that I personally think it is politically scummy to intentionally vote for a "weak" candidate in an opposition party as a method to make your preferred party seem stronger. You should vote for someone you like in a party you support, not try to game the system by sabotaging the opposition. Voting is supposed to represent support, not "we could totally beat this sucker!"

And you absolutely do not want your first vote to be for Drumpf. You know that. Do what you want, of course, but that's just my opinion. You should look back with pride at being part of the process, not feeling rotten because you voted for someone you dislike.
 
The only answer I've ever gotten when asking why Black Voters prefer Hillary over Bernie is some convoluted answer about how Bernie allegedly talks down to Minorities. The go to seems to be "Hillary speaks to the issues that Black Voters care about", and when asked what those issues are it's usually crickets.

Bernie done a shitty job at trying to get black voters that's that. Hillary done a better job. I think even many blacks that follows politics closely, engaged, or actually involved, supports Hillary.

No amount of saying nice things is going to work if you don't actively and aggressively campaign for some voters. She have Obama close and has a history with the community, so he was at a disadvantage from the get-go. Aldo AAs probably are more likely to care about race issues, Bernie Sanders and many others possibly look at things in a more class based issue. It would be hard to say that wallstreet and wealthy people are a big source of their problem regardless if it is true or not.
 
More evidence for my belief that Trump's strength is more about the complete unwillingness of the Republican establishment to hit him until last week than anything else. RCP just sent out a poll of which negative stories about Trump that Republicans voters have heard of:

None: 55%
The KKK story from yesterday: 27%
Trump University lawsuits: 20%
Donald Trump's hands: 17%
John Oliver monologue: 13%
Failure of Trump mortgage: 13%

Oh, if only Donald Trump hadn't lived a life a such virtue that no scandal could taint him, he may not be halfway to the Presidency.
 
I can't deny that Sanders can raise money like no ones business. That is impressive as hell. I still stand by what I said, though. I hope that when Bernie realizes he cannot win he stops taking these people's money.
 
The only answer I've ever gotten when asking why Black Voters prefer Hillary over Bernie is some convoluted answer about how Bernie allegedly talks down to Minorities. The go to seems to be "Hillary speaks to the issues that Black Voters care about", and when asked what those issues are it's usually crickets.

Bernie doesn't do as badly with younger black voters. He still doesn't carry a majority, but it's like 45-55 or something like that, which is not bad. He has never successfully woven systemic racism into his stump speech (which wouldn't even be that hard, considering you could make the case that big banks and corporations are primary vehicles for the consolidation of wealth and power away from minorities), and this makes his pledge to fight the power less convincing and meaningful to them - and given that he is a much bigger electoral risk, and they are the group that will be hit the hardest if the GOP gains power and implements austerity measures, they thus don't have a strong reason to go against their more rational, electable choice of Hillary Clinton, especially since they generally like the Clintons because the Clintons have made active outreach efforts to African Americans across the country for 30 years.
 
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