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[Basileus777]

Nah he aint winning. Same thing happened in Idaho.

But Rubio's in 4th.

 

[Macho Madness]

According to NPR's tracker, Sanders will come out with 65 delegates to Hillary's 58 in Michigan. He needed 67 to still be on track for the nomination.

I'm now going to sleep and when I wake up I expect articles about how despite Sanders winning Michigan, Hillary's going to get more delegates from the state.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Clinton won 57-41 among Democrats in that exit poll. That's close to the overall polling. Maybe they were screening out too many independents?

EDIT: Yep in one case.

Mitchell's poll had 90% Democrats in their sample, 9% independents.

Mitchell should know fucking better, we always get like 30% independent turnout. Never let him on the air again Skubick!

We will hear from pollsters. This might have been the issue along with Sanders better performance among AA voters.

 

[Holmes]

Now I know how Republicans felt like in 2008 when Indies gave McCain the nomination.

 

[Macho Madness]

Now I know how Republicans felt like in 2008 when Indies gave McCain the nomination.

Actually you should feel like a Democrat who wanted Obama because the same thing is happening. Only it's even more tipped in Clinton's favor this time than it was Obama last time.

 

[benjipwns]

We will hear from pollsters. This might have been the issue along with Sanders better performance among AA voters.

Same Mitchell poll had blacks going 80-11 for Hillary. As 18% of the D vote.

 

[Basileus777]

Kauai loves Big Don.

 

[Officerrob]

wrong thread

 

[Macho Madness]

"I love the Hawaii people. I have a great relationship with the Asians"

 

[Ecotic]

"I love the Hawaii people. I have a great relationship with the Asians"

"That I can tell you. Believe me."

 

[Cerium]

Wow Trump is fucking killing it in Hawaii.

With 13% reporting it's Trump 42.1%, Lyin' Ted 27.9%, Lil' Marco 14.7%, Kasich 14.1%.

My guess is that the Hawaiian sense of independence and outsider status led them to Trump over the establishment. The margins Obama won by in Hawaii were abnormal due to the fact that he's seen as one of them; in previous years it was never that liberal.

 

[RastaMentality]

Nate:

GOP delegates if things finish exactly as they stand right now in MI+MS+ID:
Trump 62
Cruz 52
Kasich 17
Rubio 0
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/

 

[Basileus777]

Greenpapers:

Or here if you want to see the math.

 

[pigeon]

Wow Trump is fucking killing it in Hawaii.

With 13% reporting it's Trump 42.1%, Lyin' Ted 27.9%, Lil' Marco 14.7%, Kasich 14.1%.

My guess is that the Hawaiian sense of independence and outsider status led them to Trump over the establishment. The margins Obama won by in Hawaii were abnormal due to the fact that he's seen as one of them; in previous years it was never that liberal.

Most people in Hawaii don't consider themselves independent or outsiders. Mainlanders might view them that way! And obviously sovereignty supporters aren't going to vote in the GOP primary.

Hawaii wasn't ever that liberal even with Obama, it's just really democratic and full of minorities. But it doesn't have the same history as continental America and politics are still machiney.

Also, I mean, just to make sure it's clear to everybody, if Oahu hasn't reported than Hawaii hasn't reported.

 

[theprodigy]

Or here if you want to see the math.

The Green Papers has the math too, in fact it actually shows the allocation by district.

 

[Makai]

Please tell me the 22% in refers to the precincts and not voters. How can they have 19 delegates if only like 1000 people vote?

 

[Basileus777]

Please tell me the 22% in refers to the precincts and not voters. How can they have 19 delegates if only like 1000 people vote?

It's precincts. But the turnout will be really low.

 

[Cerium]

Trump's margin is growing. He might get over 50%.

 

[ivysaur12]

Trump's margin is growing. He might get over 50%.

Depends if Honolulu is in yet or not, or if he's going to do well there. But yeah, wow. I thought Lil' Marco had this one.

 

[Basileus777]

The rounding rules in Hawaii favor the winner, so a nice margin in each of the two congressional districts will net Trump some extra delegates.

The key to the allocation of the Hawaii congressional district delegates is in the rounding. Just as above, fractional delegates will be rounded up to the nearest whole number. If a candidate receives more than one-third of the vote in a congressional district, then that candidate will round up to two delegates in that district. The remaining delegate would be left to the candidate in second place in that district. If no candidate clears that 33.3% threshold in a congressional district, however, then the top three candidates would all be allocated one delegate.

So if Trump gets more than 33% in each district, that'd be 4 of the 6 congressional delegates.

And whoever is in 4th could be shut out.

 

[Holmes]

Holy fuck. Left to wash my face and teeth and come back to a Trump lead in Hawaii.

 

[Ecotic]

It's a shame Trump couldn't top 50% in Mississippi. It would have given him a cushion going into next week.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I can't get over the fact that a candidate whose primary policy position is building a wall at the southern border is winning in Hawaii.

 

[Basileus777]

It's a shame Trump couldn't top 50% in Mississippi. It would have given him a cushion going into next week.

50% in the state wouldn't mean anything, but he just barely missed 50% in CD3 and CD4 which cost him 2 delegates,

 

[ivysaur12]

I can't get over the fact that a candidate whose primary policy position is building a wall at the southern border is winning in Hawaii.

Alaskan voters said their #1 concern was border security.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Alaskan voters said their #1 concern was border security.

This fucking country.

It goes to show how powerful ideology can be.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Alaskan voters said their #1 concern was border security.

I mean, they can see Russia from their houses!

 

[pigeon]

I can't get over the fact that a candidate whose primary policy position is building a wall at the southern border is winning in Hawaii.

I mean, which of the Republican candidates do you think has a platform more relevant to people living in Hawaii?

 

[neurosisxeno]

I mean, which of the Republican candidates do you think has a platform more relevant to people living in Hawaii?

Hillary Clinton

Spoiler

/s

 

[benjipwns]

I can't get over the fact that a candidate whose primary policy position is building a wall at the southern border is winning in Hawaii.

Uh, no his primary policy position is making America great again.

 

[Tubie]

I can't believe Trump is gonna win Hawaii.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

I mean, which of the Republican candidates do you think has a platform more relevant to people living in Hawaii?

The turnout of a whopping ~5,000 people says none of them, of course. It's still kind of ridiculous that Republican Hawaiian voters are apparently concerned about Mexican immigrants sneaking into Honolulu.

 

[ivysaur12]

The turnout of a whopping ~5,000 people says none of them, of course. It's still kind of ridiculous that Republican Hawaiian voters are apparently concerned about Mexican immigrants sneaking into Honolulu.

It's a real fear!!!

 

[ivysaur12]

New dump, Trump up by 300. Still 15 precincts left on Oahu.

 

[Macho Madness]

Lol MSNBC cared so much about Hawaii they went into reruns

 

[Wilsongt]

Hillary might as well drop out of the race now, give her delegates to Bernie, and hand over the keys to the white house to Trump. I bet the BernieBros are cumming all over the place tonight.

 

[RastaMentality]

Trump won Hawaii.

 

[Basileus777]

Trump on pace to win 10 delegates from Hawaii, which would be a majority.

4th place finisher (Kasich for now) would receive 0.

 

[Jack Remington]

This is weird. We have two threads going at the same time.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Hillary might as well drop out of the race now, give her delegates to Bernie, and hand over the keys to the white house to Trump. I bet the BernieBros are cumming all over the place tonight.

I'm not sure if this is facetious or not, but I think a serious case could be made that, against Trump, Bernie is the stronger choice. Minority groups are going to vote against Trump regardless, so the easier victory is probably with the candidate who does better with working class white voters.

 

[Tarkus]

50% in the state wouldn't mean anything, but he just barely missed 50% in CD3 and CD4 which cost him 2 delegates,

Are you counting votes or T cells?

 

[Basileus777]

Are you counting votes or T cells?

Congressional districts.

 

[Cerium]

Trump won Dearborn, Michigan. The most Muslim city in America.

 

[tmarg]

Trump won Dearborn, Michigan. The most Muslim city in America.

I doubt the muslims in Dearborn were voting in the Republican primary. There are white people there too.

 

[benjipwns]

Trump won Dearborn, Michigan. The most Muslim city in America.

Dearborn only has like 30,000 people of Arab-descent out of almost 100,000 total population.

3153 voters voted for Donald Trump.

 

[And_Gignac]

Trump won Dearborn, Michigan. The most Muslim city in America.

Lol most Muslims didn't vote in the GOP primary. They were too busy giving a 67% win to Bernie Sanders.

 

[soul creator]

I don't think it's even necessarily that it "trumps" (can't even think of this word without thinking of Big Don now) social justice but that it's seen as a critical element of social justice for a lot of youth voters.

To add on, even though a lot of folks criticize Sanders as a "single-issue" candidate, I've noticed sometimes that people seem to forget that concepts like intersectionality include class issues. And on those issues, single-payer health care, taxpayer-funded tuition, guaranteed paid leave, $15 min wage, etc. and other European-style policies speak much more directly to that kind of intersectionality in comparison to Hillary's platform.

Economics in and of themselves don't solve racism or sexism, but the type of "cultural" sexism associated with Hillary and glass ceilings for example is still way different than the "economic" sexism involved with a single mom working minimum wage unable to take time off from work to raise her kids the way she wants. While both situations are obviously not ideal, it wouldn't surprise me if the latter person would much prefer to be in the former situation...

 

[Grexeno]

So apparently most Democratic primaries going forward are closed primaries?

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

So apparently most Democratic primaries going forward are closed primaries?

There's a good number of them, yes. But there's also like a dozen states that are open or semi-open.

 

[Cerium]

Ted Cruz as a compromise candidate brehs.

Republican elites are begrudgingly embracing Ted Cruz—and hanging Marco Rubio out to dry.

Panicked at Donald Trump’s dominance and dismayed by Rubio’s continued inability to do anything about it, some top Republican power brokers are turning to Cruz, putting aside their policy and personal misgivings to back the candidate they now openly label as their best hope to stop Trump’s GOP takeover.

“He seems to be the only guy who’s got some momentum, and is probably the best situated if there is anybody out there to beat Trump,” said Austin Barbour, a prominent Mississippi-based GOP operative. “That’s why there are many people like me—Ted Cruz wouldn’t have been our first choice, but as we go through the process, we’re reevaluating our vote, and he seems to be the guy at the top of the list.”

“Most people now think Ted’s the best vehicle to defeat Trump,” said Charles C. Foster, a Bush family loyalist from Houston who served on Jeb Bush’s national finance team. “I would say some are enthusiastic for Ted, some are just saying, ‘OK, Ted’s not my first choice, but anyone that can beat Trump, I’ll support.’”