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[WaffleTaco]

Last Ohio poll conducted 03/04 - 03/06 from PPP has Clinton up 21%.

Should we just throw this poll in the trash right now?

I don't know what's real anymore. Legit shook.

To be fair polls were also wrong about Trump in Iowa. I mean this is entirely different, but I believe I read somewhere where the voter was undecided in Michigan, by a good percentage.

 

[sphagnum]

Wefare Capitalism is still Capitalism.

Yes, see my previous post. The vast majority of people in America don't actually want capitalism to end, but the youth are obviously more comfortable with someone who is willing to call themselves something other than capitalist. If Bernie had called himself a social democrat instead of a democratic socialist he'd probably see even more support outside of the youth demographic because the "He's a socialist, he'll automatically lose the general!" idea wouldn't be quite as strong.

Most people couldn't even tell you what the defining features of capitalism are. They just think of it as "big business". So embracing capitalism is not positive PR.

Young voters are idealistic and moronic. And no...most people don't care for feminism or they have the wrong idea of it.

Young, college-age Democratic voters almost surely have a higher view of feminism than the general electorate.

 

[ApharmdX]

I am genuinely amazed that millennial liberals aren't turning out for the first candidate to ever frame issues of oppression in terms of intersectionality. I hadn't realized a.) just how effective a 20 year smear campaign could be and b.) just how much other "considerations" go out the window when you find a candidate who taps into economic bitterness

People have to make a living. At the end of the day, we need to provide for ourselves. When you have power structures over the last 30 years that exist only to make a tiny segment of the population wealthier, to the detriment of the rest, that trumps social justice for a lot of us liberals. Hillary's message on social issues is better, there's no denying that. But on the economy, Bernie trumps her.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Last Ohio poll conducted 03/04 - 03/06 from PPP has Clinton up 21%.

Should we just throw this poll in the trash right now?

I don't know what's real anymore. Legit shook.

Not sure I'd throw it out completely, but I'd definitely expect a closer race.

 

[Basileus777]

AP has called the final distribution of Michigan's 59 delegates.

Trump 25, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0.

 

[Abinash117]

Last Ohio poll conducted 03/04 - 03/06 from PPP has Clinton up 21%.

Should we just throw this poll in the trash right now?

I don't know what's real anymore. Legit shook.

No, it could that people just got Michigan wrong. Every other poll was all that much wrong in other states at least in terms how is going to win.

 

[Rubenov]

To be fair polls were also wrong about Trump in Iowa. I mean this is entirely different, but I believe I read somewhere where the voter was undecided in Michigan, by a good percentage.

This was something more than the undecided. This was an over 20 point swing with no major news in two days. This may be the biggest upset in primary election history, and that's no hyperbole.

 

[benjipwns]

Wow, I was wrong about Kent County. I thought for sure GR was going to vote closer to the state in general.

EDIT: Same precincts shuffled The Donald down to third in the county.

 

[Crocodile]

AP has called the final distribution of Michigan's 59 delegates.

Trump 25, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0.

EL OH EL

 

[Basileus777]

This was something more than the undecided. This was an over 20 point swing with no major news in two days. This may be the biggest upset in primary election history, and that's no hyperbole.

Obviously it was the debate!

 

[Macho Madness]

Outside of caucuses, the polls have been fairly decent. Something clearly happened with Michigan but it's not enough to just throw ALL polls in the garbage.

 

[sphagnum]

People have to make a living. At the end of the day, we need to provide for ourselves. When you have power structures over the last 30 years that exist only to make a tiny segment of the population wealthier, to the detriment of the rest, that trumps social justice for a lot of us liberals. Hillary's message on social issues is better, there's no denying that. But on the economy, Bernie trumps her.

I don't think it's even necessarily that it "trumps" (can't even think of this word without thinking of Big Don now) social justice but that it's seen as a critical element of social justice for a lot of youth voters.

 

[Suikoguy]

Outside of caucuses, the polls have been fairly decent. Something clearly happened with Michigan but it's not enough to just throw ALL polls in the garbage.

Yeah, something happened. If it really was Dem voters voting in the Republican Primary... I'd be simultaneously surprised and pissed

Edit: I have no idea why Trump is down on PredictIT, he hit his targets.

 

[eBay Huckster]

This was something more than the undecided. This was an over 20 point swing with no major news in two days. This may be the biggest upset in primary election history, and that's no hyperbole.

Models for Michigan on the Dem side may well have been fundamentally fucked, in addition to every other factor named. This is a state whose Democratic Party hasn't held a primary that was actually contested in 24 years, after all.

 

[Rubenov]

Outside of caucuses, the polls have been fairly decent. Something clearly happened with Michigan but it's not enough to just throw ALL polls in the garbage.

Polls in Michigan since the beginning of the race:

Clinton +27
Clinton +37
Clinton +24
Clinton +13
Clinton +11
Clinton +17
Clinton +20
Clinton +34
Clinton +13
Clinton +33
Clinton +10
Clinton +29
Clinton +32
Clinton +27
Clinton +7
Clinton +19
Clinton +32


NOT A SINGLE POLL SHOWED SANDERS WINNING, and every poll except one (+7) had Clinton up by double digits.

This is fucking huge for the polling world. I want an autopsy done here dammit.

 

[NeoXChaos]

could have a combination of things like the debate, crossover votes etc.

There are a few possible explanations for the huge polling miss in the Michigan Democratic primary: For instance, if a significant number of Clinton supporters stayed home out of complacency or crossed over to the Republican primary to oppose Trump, that may have contributed to Sanders’s shocking win. We might get more explanations from pollsters soon — I’ve emailed several who showed Clinton ahead by 10 percentage points or more to ask why they think the polls were so far from the voting results.

Here’s another possible explanation: The most recent Michigan polls in our database stopped contacting voters Sunday, the night of the last debate, held in Flint, Michigan. Although many thought Clinton performed better than Sanders in the debate, perhaps voters felt differently. After many pollsters missed Ted Cruz’s Iowa win and suggested that Clinton would win Iowa easily — she won so narrowly that some call it a tie — several pollsters told us a lesson they learned: “Keep on contacting voters as late as possible.” But it’s up to poll sponsors to pay to contact voters until the final days of the race, and none did so in Michigan.

Ruby Cramer ‏@rubycramer 26m26 minutes ago Florida, USA
Clinton had small state staff, parachuted people in late. Field op didn't kick in til about one week out, mostly focused on AA community
View conversation 41 retweets 36 likes

Kyle Kondik Retweeted
Ruby Cramer ‏@rubycramer 28m28 minutes ago Florida, USA
From source familiar w/ Clinton Mich operation: loss came down to org fail, taking structural advantages for granted, moving on too soon.

 

[WaffleTaco]

This was something more than the undecided. This was an over 20 point swing with no major news in two days. This may be the biggest upset in primary election history, and that's no hyperbole.

I just looked at a few polls and it seems like the gap was a little less than 20 points...maybe closer to 16, with around 4 percent undecided...honestly I think the media basically stating that she would win convinced Hillary voters not to bother voting for her.

 

[Basileus777]

Wow Cruz is cleaning up in Idaho. It won't matter much unless he cracks 50%, but that looks unlikely with Eastern Idaho mostly reported.

 

[Rubenov]

I just looked at a few polls and it seems like the gap was a little less than 20 points...maybe closer to 16, with around 4 percent undecided...honestly I think the media basically stating that she would win convinced Hillary voters not to bother voting for her.

There may be something to that. The Cheebo effect, man. Cheebo you owe me money!!

 

[Macho Madness]

Well, let's hope this is a wake up call for potential Hillary voters: This isn't over. Don't strategically vote.

 

[Suikoguy]

Polls in Michigan since the beginning of the race:

Clinton +27
Clinton +37
Clinton +24
Clinton +13
Clinton +11
Clinton +17
Clinton +20
Clinton +34
Clinton +13
Clinton +33
Clinton +10
Clinton +29
Clinton +32
Clinton +27
Clinton +7
Clinton +19
Clinton +32


NOT A SINGLE POLL SHOWED SANDERS WINNING, and every poll except one (+7) had Clinton up by double digits.

This is fucking huge for the polling world. I want an autopsy done here dammit.

Yes if for no other reason in that we depend on polls to an extent to double check that election results were not tampered with.

 

[Iolo]

I just looked at a few polls and it seems like the gap was a little less than 20 points...maybe closer to 16, with around 4 percent undecided...honestly I think the media basically stating that she would win convinced Hillary voters not to bother voting for her.

If that is the case, rather than modeling error or some massive shift after the debate, then that should be corrected for by Hillary voters on 3/15.

 

[WaffleTaco]

If that is the case, rather than modeling error or some massive shift after the debate, then that should be corrected for by Hillary voters on 3/15.

I think it will be...I was considered either not voting for the Illinois primary or simply throwing it away for some random Dem on there (not Bernie). I am now for sure voting in it.

 

[Macho Madness]

PredictIt thinks Cruz is winning Idaho. I could see it. Especially after he won the heavy LDS areas in Nevada.

Idaho is heavily conservative. They really believe that shit to the core. Plus the economy is fairly good. I'd be surprised if Trump wins. Rubio win wouldn't surprise me either but he's toast.

I told y'all

 

[Basileus777]

I told y'all

Everyone knew Cruz was winning Idaho.

 

[Effect]

She needs to make it completely clear that regardless of what polls say people need to get their butts out there and vote. None of this voting in the republican primary to get ride of Trump. That BS very likely cost her the win if that percentage is indeed almost 10% or top of people not coming out because they thought it was covered. She needs to use this first thing tomorrow and keep using it.

 

[benjipwns]

Clinton won 57-41 among Democrats in that exit poll. That's close to the overall polling. Maybe they were screening out too many independents?

EDIT: Yep in one case.

Mitchell's poll had 90% Democrats in their sample, 9% independents.

Mitchell should know fucking better, we always get like 30% independent turnout. Never let him on the air again Skubick!

 

[Macho Madness]

Everyone knew Cruz was winning Idaho.

Tell that to Mr. Shook.

 

[Macho Madness]

I think it says something that they split Genesee 50/50. That should have been a dominant county for Hillary.

 

[Cerium]

Where the Hawai'i results fam?

 

[Basileus777]

Where the Hawai'i results fam?

They're waiting until no one is awake to hear that Rubio won delegates.

 

[Rubenov]

Where the Hawai'i results fam?

To come. I closed out my shares and I'm going to bed. This election is just too unpredictable.

Trump losing Maine, Clinton losing Michigan, polls being way off.... I'm just gonna watch from the sidelines.

 

[Rubenov]

They're waiting until no one is awake to hear that Rubio won delegates.

Predicted just sold off Rubio in Hawaii and bought Trump. I don't think that will end well but we'll see. I think a Cruz win or maybe even a Kasich one are more likely than Trump. Go on Hawaii, surprise me.

 

[Macho Madness]

I bought some Cruz No. I think that's probably safe.

 

[Basileus777]

Predicted just sold off Rubio in Hawaii and bought Trump. I don't think that will end well but we'll see. I think a Cruz win or maybe even a Kasich one are more likely than Trump. Go on Hawaii, surprise me.

It's a caucus state and I'd be surprised if Trump had any organization in Hawaii.

There are no thresholds in the state so Rubio's safe for once.

 

[Rubenov]

It's a caucus state and I'd be surprised if Trump had any organization in Hawaii.

There are no thresholds in the state so Rubio's safe for once.

Trump had its first "rally" there this past Monday with 20 people. Meanwhile Cruz has been working the ground game for months and Rubio has been advertising a lot. I still don't see a Trump win but this is the year of surprises so we'll see.

 

[benjipwns]

There are no thresholds in the state so Rubio's safe for once.

Unless he gets 0% of the vote.

Nothing is impossible!

 

[Grief.exe]

How many delegates is Bernie set to take from Michigan?

 

[ApharmdX]

I don't think it's even necessarily that it "trumps" (can't even think of this word without thinking of Big Don now) social justice but that it's seen as a critical element of social justice for a lot of youth voters.

That's fair. You make a good point and I think you're right.

 

[eBay Huckster]

How many delegates is Bernie set to take from Michigan?

69.

(nice)

 

[Macho Madness]

Nevermind eBay huckster got it. He overperformed his target by 2 delegates then.

 

[Iolo]

Clinton won 57-41 among Democrats in that exit poll. That's close to the overall polling. Maybe they were screening out too many independents?

EDIT: Yep in one case.

Mitchell's poll had 90% Democrats in their sample, 9% independents.

Mitchell should know fucking better, we always get like 30% independent turnout. Never let him on the air again Skubick!

Yeah, but every single poll was wrong.

If I had to guess: OH, PA could have similar errors and will probably go Sanders now. FL, IL, NC are probably legit. WI will be a massacre.

 

[Ecotic]

Man, there's only D.C., Guam, and Virgin Island hors d'oeuvres until next Tuesday. I guess there's debates to hold me over.

 

[theprodigy]

69.

(nice)

That's with Sanders winning by a bigger margin then what he actually has though?

this has 520,217 to 447,531 votes

 

[Cerium]

GOP Illuminati having a conference call on the 15th. I think that's the day that Trump can break their spirits if he sweeps Ohio, Florida, and Missouri.

Well-heeled donors, who have funneled millions of dollars to anti-Trump groups, are in preliminary talks to convene a meeting or conference call after March 15, a crucial day on the nominating calendar that will play a major role in determining whether the billionaire can be stopped. The purpose, according to three sources involved in the planning: to assess whether the multimillion-dollar offensive against Trump is working — and, in the words of one, “what the path forward would be.”

 

[Cesare Borgia]

could have a combination of things like the debate, crossover votes etc.

Org fail, taking structural advantages for granted, moving on too soon...well that sounds familiar.

 

[Rubenov]

Trump is ahead in Hawaii first batch in. lol I'm done.

 

[eBay Huckster]

That's with Sanders winning by a bigger margin then what he actually has though?

Yeah, I'm not sure what's up with their vote counts.

In any event, 69 is his best case (heh!)

 

[Cerium]

Trump is ahead in Hawaii first batch in. lol I'm done.

I had a sneaking suspicion that this would be the case.

Get fucked Lil' Marco.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Trump is ahead in Hawaii first batch in. lol I'm done.

Nah he aint winning. Same thing happened in Idaho.