whyamihere
Banned
Trump +11 in Texas is my guess.
Also wow that Indiana poll dragged Trump's chances of winning down by a lot.
Also wow that Indiana poll dragged Trump's chances of winning down by a lot.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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....
Herp a derp. Yeah, I'm an idiot. For some reason I think "Texas" and my mind automatically goes to that ridiculous 35th district connecting chunks of Austin and San Antonio and how stacked the game is, state-wide.
538 is definitely ready for a Trump collapse at this point, so any poll showing a normally red state close is going to be taken as implying an ongoing trend towards blueness in that state.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Ariel Edwards-Levy
‏@aedwardslevy
I'm not 100% convinced this "America's Angela Merkel" attack line is going to land
It only lands to islamophobes
Tarkus
Member
So much for Utah going blue.
ISWThunder
Member
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
eh she may come ouat a +10 in texas and it may fluctuate +/- 2% for the duration of the election while she flubs every explanation for whatever else is in the emails.
Link
The Autumn Wind
It actually helps it go blue. The Republican vote is going to be split among three candidates now.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
This makes it more likely. Needed a potential vote-splitter for conservative voters so Hill can sneak in and win the state w/ 34-35% of the vote.
McMuffin being on the ballot probably isn't enough with limited name recognition. If Romney endorses him, however, that might do the trick.
BTW, thanks to the poster who shared a potential answer to my earlier question.
Tarkus
Member
Nah. All those moderate morms in Clinton's camp and those in Trump's are going to flock behind one of their own. My Mormon friends are orgasming as we speak.
That's just what the failing, final fantasy delaying NeoGAF moderation team wants you to believe. Sad.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Harambe +5, Texas is big on wildlife.
thestopsign
Member
I just did the biggest eye roll I've ever done reading this post.
Edit: Also, did you mean Trump +10 or Hillary? I assumed you meant Trump.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I am STUNNED by this. I need to see another poll, because this is just...wow.
whyamihere
Banned
BREAKING
BlastProcessing
Member
Basileus777
Member
It's an internal poll, it's worth taking it with a grain of salt.
Fragamemnon
Member
So Texas would be around +7 Trump, which is pretty reasonable given the overall current swing.
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
Trump up by 5-8 seems likely then.
I mean, this is a Democratic internal poll from two weeks ago. If Trump showed us an internal poll where he was tied in Virginia I'd be equally skeptical.
User 463088
Banned
If Johnson's only getting 6 in the poll, I'll go with Trump up by 9. Single digits is huge. If it's within 5, holy hit...but 9 is where I'm at right now.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Dang.
I don't..
Any explanation?
Boy that looks worse than it is
Losing 4 points nationally in like a week?
Oh man, don't panic
Shit will tighten up, I know that.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Exactly--that's why I need to see another poll. I just don't believe it.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Prediction Trump is up 3 in Texas.
Can't speak to Clinton and Trump being tied in Indiana, but the gov/Senate numbers seem to be pretty in line with everyone else.
Can't speak to Clinton and Trump being tied in Indiana, but the gov/Senate numbers seem to be pretty in line with everyone else.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Look at the actual points on the graph.
Dang.
I don't..
Any explanation?
Boy that looks worse than it is
Losing 4 points nationally in like a week?
Oh man, don't panic
Shit will tighten up, I know that.
Roland_Gunner
Member
The explanation is that a series of lower quality and more Trump friendly polls have come out lately and the TPM tracker doesn't have any weighting. If you look at the 538 weighted average Clinton is holding steady while Trump slowly erodes:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
User 463088
Banned
Dang.
I don't..
Any explanation?
Boy that looks worse than it is
Losing 4 points nationally in like a week?
Oh man, don't panic
Shit will tighten up, I know that.
Please don't use that aggregate. It's terrible. Like, absolutely terrible. The whole thing is brought down because of one Morning Consult poll.
Use pollster.com. Upshot, PEC and 538 have all moved towards Hillary in the last few days. There's. literally, no reason whatsoever to be worried at the moment. Even Nate has mentioned there's no real evidence that her bump has gone anywhere.
Personally, I think the race will settle in the 5-7 point aggregate lead for Hillary.
Dang.
I don't..
Any explanation?
Boy that looks worse than it is
Losing 4 points nationally in like a week?
Oh man, don't panic
Shit will tighten up, I know that.
Chill dude.
There's only been one poll since 8/10 in that average! And the ones on 8/9-8/10 were 42, 43, 42 and 49.
This has happened time and time again in the past couple weeks. A shitload of tracking or low-quality polls drag down the average, then the occasional quality poll comes in at +6 or +8.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Interesting that they're using it. I seem to recall in the past Nate not using internal polls on the grounds that they tend to be leaked selectively.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Trump +5. Calling it.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Hillary moving resources there would be huge, and potentially help downballot (Bayh doesn't need the help, but Gregg might depending on how the campaign goes).
Do it, I want to see Indiana go two out of three.
LOL this fuckin trumpian fuck
yall watching CNN ?
CNN aint having NONE of ANYTHING
HAHA jack kingston just compared donald trump "building" a...i cant even...wait...
i need to get myself together....okay...man up....here we go...
ICE SKATING RINK
to having the qualities needed to combat ISIS etc
yall watching CNN ?
CNN aint having NONE of ANYTHING
HAHA jack kingston just compared donald trump "building" a...i cant even...wait...
i need to get myself together....okay...man up....here we go...
ICE SKATING RINK
to having the qualities needed to combat ISIS etc
User 463088
Banned
Hey guis
Did you know there was polling on Brexit?
Did you know there was polling on Brexit?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Do you mean ISIS agents attacking in the US or inspired attacks?
ISIS trained agents.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Nobody got my diablos joke / anagram. Thanks for nothing, PoliGAF.
Yup. Josh even had a post about this over the weekend where he filtered the results by the major media polls.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-trump-improving-his-numbers-in-spite-of-everything
Holy shit that is actually amazing. Too believable of a panic, but I still should have caught it.
whyamihere
Banned
Believe.
Got the Shakes
Member
Saw it, heard it, thought I was hallucinating. Also said to disregard Trump being on record as being in favor of the Iraq war in 2003 because he was a private citizen at the time he said it...
Believe.
Bah... She'll get 350. Maybe.
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