RustyNails
Member
whats r/s4p up to these days?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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whats r/s4p up to these days?
Good call.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Does anyone know what Hillary has been doing the past few days? She's probably at hope sipping some tea while Kaine mows the lawn and Bill is trying to bake muffins.
Your optimism is both impressive and inspiring. I'm glad that you're managing to weather it okay, I hope the "it" you end up rolling in is satisfactory levels of profit. If I'm ever down that way (which is sadly unlikely) I'll have to pop in and visit.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Crisis averted.
Shopping for ties. Listening to Kaine cover Blues Traveler for the 50th time.
nature boy
Member
Campaigning.
BotoxAgent
Member
posted!?!?
but his speech had higher ratings!!!!!!!! The best ratings!
She just finished a rally in Colorado. You know, just normal boring campaign stuff.
User 463088
Banned
It shut down.
Yesterday, she was off the trail because a friend passed away in Connecticut.
Abinash117
Member
Frozen in time.
Fragamemnon
Member
Nah Tim's is in the garage trying to get a belt out of the parts dryer he bought at a garage sale over the weekend.
Black Mamba
Member
How could you not?
Those indicators are like really really bad.
Most pollsters just ask who you'd vote for. This one asked specific type questions and all that matter were really bad for Trump.
If nothing changes, this is a really bad blowout for Trump. If Clinton really is up 9-10 nationally, she's going to not just take all the known swings, but put places like Zona and georgia legit in play and destroy down ballot.
Remember, a big big big key to winning Senate/House is depressing GOP voters. If the polls are showing a large Hillary win in late October, a lot of soft Republican/Trump supporters will stay home. His base will come out but the guys holding their nose to vote for him won't and if polls show Hillary up 7 or 8, the reality will end up being more 10-12.
It is imperative that the Dems keep the pressure on. He has to lose big.
I am going to refer to Trump as "Idiot Diet-Hitler" from now on when I hear his supporters complain about his polling.
"Nobody told you guys to nominate idiot diet-hitler to your ticket"
"Nobody told you guys to nominate idiot diet-hitler to your ticket"
So what your saying is, I can borrow the station wagon tonight?
User 463088
Banned
Fox News was a mistake. The first line of their reporting on their poll:
Sixty-one percent of voters think Hillary Clinton is dishonest, yet shes opened up a big lead over Donald Trump in the latest Fox News Poll.
Like, do conservatives not get subtle?
Sixty-one percent of voters think Hillary Clinton is dishonest, yet shes opened up a big lead over Donald Trump in the latest Fox News Poll.
Like, do conservatives not get subtle?
User 463088
Banned
Holy fuck: would. So would.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Between advances in polling science and increased polarization you can't really compare the situation now to 20 / 30 years ago. Look at some of the wild swings in the 2000 race:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histo...s#United_States_presidential_election.2C_2000
Black Mamba
Member
The crosstabs on the Fox News poll don't look quite right to me which could explain why it's a slight outlier
The white vote and the no degree vote sticks out to me, but that's just my initial reaction.
Eh, if She's actually up 7 right now, an outcome of +10 is normal. Remember, no pollster can just nail it dead on every poll. The key is to be within range.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Bush had a huge lead over Gore in early August, but those numbers need to be understood in context. The RNC was at the beginning of the month and the DNC was in the middle of August that year.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
They don't, the media is just frothing at the mouth over the idea of something crazy happening. There's no indication whatsoever its even a vague possibility and nobody at all that's actually in the GOP leadership has publicly suggested it. The reason they won't is likely that they literally cannot actually do it. They would need to convince Donald Trump to drop out of the race within the next week or so or they would lose several states by default, but part of Trump's problem is that he won't play ball with Republican leadership. Having Trump step down would require him to a) admit he was losing, and b) admit he was losing before some important deadline and quit for the good of the party.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Unless Trump continues to meltdown on the regular, Clinton isn't winning by 10. She's probably 'really' up by seven or so and the other three points are white conservatives shook up by the last week. If Trump will just STFU they'll fall back in line.
If it looks like that she will win by 10+ points in november she may win some states we never thought she would win at this point besides the obvious swing states in this election cycle.
FloydtheFathead
Member
I agree.. But with the bolded.. There's the rub.. I don't know if anyone is going to put him back in the corner.
nature boy
Member
And more:
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/760966988847915009
This is becoming a drinking game.
https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/760966988847915009
This is becoming a drinking game.
Yeah, but he won't. Clearly, he won't. If he had any intention to STFU, he woulda done it by now, surely. Meanwhile, Clinton's going to be just quietly traveling the country in her bus, shaking hands and kissing babies like a normal politician.
This whole election season is just going to be "please proceed" stretched over several months.
Black Mamba
Member
Sam Wang estimated Trump's convention bounce to be roughly 1 point (Silver said 3-4 but he jumped the gun as other polls came out after he posted that). And in reality, there might have been a negative bump but it wasn't seen cuz of response rate bias.
Wang estimated Hillary's at 7. Seems like that's around where it's settling 7-8, which is I think the largest in quite a few elections.
I think it's safe to say the DNC was a success and the RNC was an unmitigated disaster.
Wang estimated Hillary's at 7. Seems like that's around where it's settling 7-8, which is I think the largest in quite a few elections.
I think it's safe to say the DNC was a success and the RNC was an unmitigated disaster.
That this can even be a jab in the first place...
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The thing is that most of Donald's message are things that don't shake anyone up - saying he hates terrorists, Obama(care) and foreigners resonates with the base.
Manmademan
Member
you forget the debates are coming. Those have a very large impact on undecideds and "casual" voters- and those will not end well for Trump- assuming he doesn't back out from them and run screaming for the hills.
I had the general at about +12 hillary- and I think that's being conservative.
BrokenFiction
Member
Honestly no one cares about his base. They are a lost cause and you can never turn them away from Trump.
Damned liberal dictionaries
nature boy
Member
Fox News doing its best to ignore their own poll.
Iran! Iran! Iran!
Ana Navarro:
https://twitter.com/ananavarro/status/760923701730615296
Iran! Iran! Iran!
Ana Navarro:
https://twitter.com/ananavarro/status/760923701730615296
FloydtheFathead
Member
True but shit like the nukes and his feud with the Khans are resonating with people though.
Another personal anecdote for trump leaners .. My parents are even saying that they aren't voting for him and vote a third party.
Edit: top of the page.. Damn it.. Uh.. Fuck the Steelers.
Basileus777
Member
How could we know if it's an outlier when we've barely had any polls post meltdown? For all we know Hillary is up over the initial wave of post DNC polls.
Black Mamba
Member
Nate Silver's model updates.
Polls-Plus 69.4%
Polls-Only 73.2%
Now-Cast - 88.5%
The forward models are almost back to where they started.
Polls-Plus 69.4%
Polls-Only 73.2%
Now-Cast - 88.5%
The forward models are almost back to where they started.
Basileus777
Member
Ohio's deadline for changing names on the ballot is August 10th. There's no way to replace Trump without conceding the election.
She's facing one of the worst people to be nominated for president ever. I think a 10 point victory is definitely possible as long as she makes no major mistakes between now and november 8th.
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