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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
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Aaron Strife
Banned
As fun as the crazy Hillary maps are where she's winning South Carolina and Indiana, I'm starting to come around to the notion that she should be focusing on shoring up the usual swing states and running up the numbers there.
Ticket splitting is at an all time low, which means even stronger Senate incumbents like Portman, Rubio or even Grassley could find themselves roadkill if Clinton is steamrolling Trump at the top of the ticket. The Senate map is disproportionately focused in Obama 08 states, the only vulnerable GOPers in states that have never voted for him are Blunt and McCain. Indiana is looking like a strong pickup for Democrats but that has little to do with anything in the national environment.
Even if you're looking at the House, if Clinton beat Trump by 10 points (compared to Obama beating Romney by 4) she would flip 30 House districts (assuming even swing, obv this isn't a perfect metric). With the exception of AZ-1 and TX-23, these flipping districts would all be in Obama 12 states.
If polling looks strong after Labor Day, I would definitely want some kind of operation set up in Arizona and Georgia (GA doesn't have any significant downballot races worth targeting, but it's an important long-term investment) especially since Colorado and Virginia seem to have been taken off the board. But what does a mandate look like? A president who won over 400 EVs but has a 50-50 Senate and a GOP House majority to contend with, or one who simply replicated Obama's map but has a firm Senate majority and maybe even a slim House majority? I would much rather have the latter.
Ticket splitting is at an all time low, which means even stronger Senate incumbents like Portman, Rubio or even Grassley could find themselves roadkill if Clinton is steamrolling Trump at the top of the ticket. The Senate map is disproportionately focused in Obama 08 states, the only vulnerable GOPers in states that have never voted for him are Blunt and McCain. Indiana is looking like a strong pickup for Democrats but that has little to do with anything in the national environment.
Even if you're looking at the House, if Clinton beat Trump by 10 points (compared to Obama beating Romney by 4) she would flip 30 House districts (assuming even swing, obv this isn't a perfect metric). With the exception of AZ-1 and TX-23, these flipping districts would all be in Obama 12 states.
If polling looks strong after Labor Day, I would definitely want some kind of operation set up in Arizona and Georgia (GA doesn't have any significant downballot races worth targeting, but it's an important long-term investment) especially since Colorado and Virginia seem to have been taken off the board. But what does a mandate look like? A president who won over 400 EVs but has a 50-50 Senate and a GOP House majority to contend with, or one who simply replicated Obama's map but has a firm Senate majority and maybe even a slim House majority? I would much rather have the latter.
User 463088
Banned
So, that Reuters/IPSOS thing is kind of cool
http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
They use a 15,000 panel survey to determine the state of the race in each state. I mean, some if it is obviously 100% batshit wrong PA and CO are no where near as close as they pretend, and FL isn't "high confidence Hillary" while Michigan is a tossup....
But it's interesting how you can play with the turnout model.
http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
They use a 15,000 panel survey to determine the state of the race in each state. I mean, some if it is obviously 100% batshit wrong PA and CO are no where near as close as they pretend, and FL isn't "high confidence Hillary" while Michigan is a tossup....
But it's interesting how you can play with the turnout model.
Maybe a little. But they want what amounts to mass deportation - that's why they're diet racists.
I think his core problem here is that you can't maintain parallel messages like this when both sides are going to be really interested in figuring out what you really mean. If there's any sign that people who don't want mass deportation believe that Trump also does not want it, the pro- deportation crowd will get really antsy and demand clarification from him. And vice versa. I don't believe that occupying an ambiguous middle ground helps him because just about the only way you can cover that is "Trump has no idea what he wants to do with immigrants".
Pretending to appeal to a group in order to actually appeal to people who don't like that group but who are pretending that they do like that group is mostly about providing an argument that the thing your supporters want done is actually also what the group they don't like should want. A play like this from Trump would be talking up the virtues of legal immigrants and how they're the true victims of illegal immigrants coming in and doing all the raping and really this is about doing what's best for immigrants who did it the right way.
Not to mention Maine leaning Trump...
User 463088
Banned
Ya. I'm not sure how I feel about these being included in a model, but whatever. Doesn't make much difference anyway, I guess.
So that's what those things are.
Nate applied an A- rating to all of them.. I mean, come on. PA at just +1 Hillary while she's at +7 in Missouri?
Says who?
The model will probably just cancel each state out, like MO +7 cancels PA +1 and FL +7 cancels Wisconsin's +1, and the national race remains the same.
If we're talking about the foundation charity stuff, then no, absolutely not. Hillary's right on this one.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
WTF at nigel farage talking right now
none of these people know about Brexit or the british system or the EU. They're literally just going yeah anti-immigration
He pretty much endorsed trump
none of these people know about Brexit or the british system or the EU. They're literally just going yeah anti-immigration
He pretty much endorsed trump
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LOL at people saying Trump's base won't vote for him if he offers amnesty. Wrong. Their hatred of Hillary far exceeds their hatred of immigrants. They'll vote for him no matter what he says.
shinra-bansho
Member
538 is shit now.
The only good Nate is godcohn.
The only good Nate is godcohn.
User 463088
Banned
People .Some people are saying it. Many people. But, ya, PA is not a 1 point race. It's just not. Same with Michigan. Same with Wisconsin. But it's an interesting thing.
But, a couple things. The rating is just based on the Pollster. IPSOS tends to get a good rating from Nate. The samples in some of these polls are minuscule. The sample size in NM, for example, is 114. In Montana, it's 100. The fun part is messing with the turnout model. If you increase 18-30 year olds from 13 to 16%, Hillary's electoral college vote jumps. It's kind of cool.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
What's trumps position now? Just not deporting 11 million people?
RustyNails
Member
Freaking Oregon? I bet its all the salty bobers.
User 463088
Banned
What about Oregon?
shinra-bansho
Member
One true Nate.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
jack_package_200
Banned
What is going on?
ShironRedshift
Member
Just turned on CNN and it says in the bottom third they're going to have an interview with Queen "soon"? Wonder if she's going to try tackling the Clinton Foundation stuff head-on. Anyone catch what that's about/do we know?
As always, it's super incoherent, but he seems to be talking about a path to legal status. It's Kasich's immigration plan.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
White people telling black people about the "black experience" right now on CNN
The odds of this being true are precisely 0.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
they're just high
whyamihere
Banned
Being out July 29th - August 19th is very bad!
This more or less covers my position, except that I think it's also important to note that Trump isn't occupying an ambiguous middle ground -- he's clearly stating he is for mass deportations and then saying he isn't any more. This is ambiguous ON AVERAGE but not in individual instances! It's just self-contradictory.
Basically, I don't want to go all Crab on people here, but let's divide all voters into four groups based on their racism and information level: informed racists, uninformed racists, informed normals, and uninformed normals.
If you think this move will help Trump, identify which group you think will change their mind and why, and then identify why the exact same argument doesn't apply in reverse to the diagonally opposite group.
OK wow at the weights Nate applied to those polls! In most cases they are the heaviest weighted!
Informed racists. White women who say, "Oh...I can't vote for that," with full on racist Trump but diet Racist Trump...we'll, we're ok with that. Because they shouldn't be citizens anyway. I mean why doesn't it make intuitive sense that moderating his position will attract those who have more moderate positions?
Informed racists. White women who say, "Oh...I can't vote for that," with full on racist Trump but diet Racist Trump...we'll, we're ok with that. Because they shouldn't be citizens anyway. I mean why doesn't it make intuitive sense that moderating his position will attract those who have more moderate positions?
Honestly, a lot of Oregon people hate Hillary despite hating Trump as well. A lot of people there expressed wanting a third party candidate. The college kids here love Bernie as a messiah. When Bernie came to our university, some were apparently caressing his arms and shoulders as if he was Jesus Christ himself.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
If you search "Ghostbusters" you see a huge amount of NeoNazi accounts that Twitter should ban, but never does.
No offense but those people sound like the stereotype the rest of the country has for Oregon.
I have seen politicans trying to appeal to minorities by doing something similar to what trump did today when trying to appeal to minorities but usually they don't call their opponent a bigot even though hilary is not one.
Beer Monkey
Member
Behind pay wall, but still a nice tease on Cincinnati Republicans voting for Hillary - and in at least one case, volunteering for her.
None taken as I wasn't raised there. It kinda made me realize I'm a lot more center-left than I thought though.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
OMG this trump surrogate on CNN
metalslimer
Member
This Maddow interview with Conway is great.
Aaron Strife
Banned
THIS IS HILARIOUS
Rachel - "The ideological vetting, the 'extreme vetting', that Donald Trump says has a Cold War precedent does indeed have a Cold War precedent. It was attempted...but ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court."
Kellyanne - "Well, we can have a discussion about what is and what isn't constitutional, or we can talk about what the American people want."
Rachel - "The ideological vetting, the 'extreme vetting', that Donald Trump says has a Cold War precedent does indeed have a Cold War precedent. It was attempted...but ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court."
Kellyanne - "Well, we can have a discussion about what is and what isn't constitutional, or we can talk about what the American people want."
metalslimer
Member
Conway is smart and would be a really scary campaign manager in a normal election. Her candidate just undercuts her because he is not making the campaign about the issues or policy. It feels like she is trying to sell Trump as generic GOP and pretending like you can hit reset.
And they seem to be getting away with it because Clinton's campaign isn't pushing back on their bullshit.
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