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[whyamihere]

He had no choice. He quickly found out his bullshit in the primaries just doesn't work in the general. You can't hop from one controversy to the next, and expect to court voters. That stuff plays to your base and your base only. Once those new poll numbers came out specifically the NH, and PA that's when shit got real for Republicans. It showed two things. One he's going to have a damn hard time winning the general. Two that Trump on the top of the ticket can actually hurt them. Now he has to try and walk back all his shit over the last few months. What Republicans should be worrying about now is if it's already too late to do so. Is he just a zombie nominee right now.

They can probably salvage a few senate seats, like in Ohio where it seems like Strickland is running a pretty bad campaign and Portman is running a really good one, or like in Florida, maaaaaybe, but it's hard. Joe Heck might be favored in a different year, but it's hard to know with such shit and rare Nevada polling. They need to be pretty precise for where they can protect their incumbents.

 

[TheFatOne]

Trump moving to the SCOTUS argument makes me nervous. I think that will really, really get traction with Republicans who don't like him.

Don't see why you would be worried. Both sides have been pushing this for months now. Including in the primaries.

 

[DrForester]

I thought Colorado was out of play for Trump. Why is he buying ads there?

He must think he has a shot. He did two rallies here last week. Pence did two this week, and Trump's coming back next week.

 

[Joeytj]

Oh my god, I just saw the video of Trump endorsing McCain and Paul Ryan. It's the worst forced video since Johnny Depp apologizing to Australia.

He's just reading what he is supposed to say and is obvious he doesn't really mean it.

Anyway, this subdued Trump will last for a couple of hours or days, and they he'll be back at it.

 

[whyamihere]

He must think he has a shot. He did two rallies here last week. Pence did two this week, and Trump's coming back next week.

It's also where they're just requesting ad rates, not necessarily where they will air ads.

Trump moving to the SCOTUS argument makes me nervous. I think that will really, really get traction with Republicans who don't like him.

He's been making this argument for weeks.

 

[TheFatOne]

He must think he has a shot. He did two rallies here last week. Pence did two this week, and Trump's coming back next week.

He doesn't have an analytics team. Everything is just gut instinct for the most part.

 

[Joeytj]

I thought Colorado was out of play for Trump. Why is he buying ads there?

Does confirm that Arizona and Georgia are in play.

The Trump campaign will most likely also try to scare Democrats into thinking Minnesota, Maine and Michigan are in play with these ad buys, but they won't fall for it.

 

[Grief.exe]

He has avoided or dodged every poster asking him for any information about Trump's positions or why he supports them, not just me. He is not that different from qwerty.

Given the posts I've seen him make, he's likely unable to support his positions yet. My guess is his environment or sources have lead him down the path and he is currently experimenting to see if it's the right one.

I thought Colorado was out of play for Trump. Why is he buying ads there?

Does confirm that Arizona and Georgia are in play.

People are still trying to figure out the demographic changes that have happened with Colorado. Hillary pulled out, likely after comparing her internal and external polling.

Since Trump has no ground game and limited polling, he is likely still in the dark on Colorado.

Case in point, the RNC chose to run some extremely far right Republicans to challenge Micheal Bennet's senate seat. As a result, he's pulled way back on his spending as well.

Proves that his big secret to winning wasn't New York like I had assumed.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Cross posting:

Challenger had no chance, I honestly think Trump did it to not let Ryan have a victory against him.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Trump won't be able to stay on script for any three days in a row over the next 94 days. Not unless his kids put meds in his food.

 

[Syncytia]

He had no choice. He quickly found out his bullshit in the primaries just doesn't work in the general. You can't hop from one controversy to the next, and expect to court voters. That stuff plays to your base and your base only. Once those new poll numbers came out specifically the NH, and PA that's when shit got real for Republicans. It showed two things. One he's going to have a damn hard time winning the general. Two that Trump on the top of the ticket can actually hurt them. Now he has to try and walk back all his shit over the last few months. What Republicans should be worrying about now is if it's already too late to do so. Is he just a zombie nominee right now.

I know he didn't have a choice. His demeanor while endorsing them really showed I think how much he didn't give a shit and was doing it just for show. He isn't even good at reading prepared remarks anyway which makes it look even worse. If he really wanted to endorse any of them, he should've held events with each of them, especially given that Ryan and McCain have endorsed him (I don't know if Ayotte has or not). I mean, I know their endorsements of Trump are pretty tepid, but the 'normal' campaign strategy is to hold events with them when they are nationally known figures.

I wouldn't be surprised to see his concession speech in November play out very similarly. Reading off a piece of paper, not really looking up much, and going on about how it's rigged and crooked Hillary. Losing will be such a huge blow to his ego that I doubt he will be able muster up much for a concession speech.

 

[VenomousCoffee]

Doesn't he need Colorado to win? I mean, if he only buys ads in swing states he can win ... he might as well not buy ads.

 

[jevity]

Trump moving to the SCOTUS argument makes me nervous. I think that will really, really get traction with Republicans who don't like him.

I dont think so.

The cult of personality part of his base, only have a superficial idea about what the SCOTUS is.

The educated and critically discerning repubs have lost most og their faith in his ability to pick proper "southern strategy leaning" justices.

 

[whyamihere]

The Trump campaign will most likely also try to scare Democrats into thinking Minnesota, Maine and Michigan are in play with these ad buys, but they won't fall for it.

Counter to that: Trump really thinks he can compete in states where he has no shot at winning, since he believes that he's going to move the needle in ways that isn't reflecting in polling because he thinks his supporters are a silent majority that he sees as his rallies.

 

[Tranqueris]

Trump: "Senator John McCain."

Audience: "Uhh should we clap? I think he wants us to clap! CLAP EVERYONE!"

 

[aspiegamer]

TIL Trump has no fucking idea what the difference is between individual bank accounts and funds for the US Treasury.

 

[TheFatOne]

lol If the U.S. went to any country on the planet and said we don't have the money they would be rightly laughed at. Man it's so incredibly sad that people fall for such complete and utter bullshit, but it's just the way it is.

 

[Syncytia]

Counter to that: Trump really thinks he can compete in states where he has no shot at winning, since he believes that he's going to move the needle in ways that isn't reflecting in polling because he thinks his supporters are a silent majority that he sees as his rallies.

I'd agree with this. Trump's perception of reality is not based in reality at all, it's in his head. He continually goes on about how he's winning in the polls at rallies when every poll coming out has him behind. Combine that with this:

He doesn't have an analytics team. Everything is just gut instinct for the most part.

And you just get a mess of a campaign.

 

[Fuchsdh]

I don't want to brainchild up this thread so I am going to limit my posts on this topic, since clearly I am not in the majority. I'm disappointed in the lack of solidarity though

This is actually my argument. That is why it's so important to set a clear example of solidarity and reject and shame racism wherever it appears. That is why that's what I expect from people, and why I'm disappointed. It doesn't take many people saying "well, sure, that's racist, but let's try to get along anyway" to make the social pressure to not be racist disappear.

Except you're not actually getting rid of racism or bigotry, you're just making them afraid to speak out. I guess if you just care about the illusion of things that's good enough, but you aren't actually changing hearts and minds, you aren't making sure that their kids aren't going to go along with what's said in private.

As stated in the shaming thread, shaming doesnt work--not for what media people enjoy, not for encouraging fat people to get fit, and not for turning racists into open-minded people. It's simply not a solution.

You can act morally superior and bitch about racists, or you can be pragmatic, try to change people's minds through example and treating them like humans, and working on public and governmental frameworks to address racial or gender or whatever biases.

 

[Grief.exe]

I'd agree with this. Trump's perception of reality is not based in reality at all, it's in his head. He continually goes on about how he's winning in the polls at rallies when every poll coming out has him behind. Combine that with this:

There are right wing polls that aren't used in aggregates that he is likely referring to, or internal polling that could be just as biased.

 

[Joeytj]

Counter to that: Trump really thinks he can compete in states where he has no shot at winning, since he believes that he's going to move the needle in ways that isn't reflecting in polling because he thinks his supporters are a silent majority that he sees as his rallies.

You're right, I forgot Trump actually believes his own hype, although this looks like a list made by someone with a bit more sanity in his campaign, not Trump himself, since he's still going to Washington state by the end of the month. Trump has complete control over his travel schedule, so that's where his delusions will most be represented.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

My god, if people can't even calm down when national polls are showing big leads and Georgia and Arizona are tied then there really is nothing that will do it. Oh my god, Trump went 24 hours without looking like a giant moron, I'M SCARED.

 

[Syncytia]

There are right wing polls that aren't used in aggregates that he is likely referring to, or internal polling that could be just as biased.

Oh yeah... can't forget to take into account that Longroom unbiased polling aggregate.

 

[Abinash117]

Is Trump's strategy is just to have rallies and leave? If he does not have much of a campaign then it means he literally has little idea of how he is actually faring besides polling. I guess if he does have bad polling in one state, he'll go there and do rallies to get support. It is largely complete waste of time though, if that is the case; because only his supporters go there and he doesn't say anything different.

 

[davepoobond]

Trump did throw the baby out. How's that dishonest?

-

The republicans made history... by selecting a white man (again)

the dishonest media told the truth

 

[Stumpokapow]

Against unfavorable odds Donald procured the votes he needed with ease and beat Jeb Bush. There wasn't even a contested convention which a lot of people assumed. Even I doubted he would win outright with Lyin' Ted right there for awhile during the primary. He's definitely a good politician. Maybe better than he is at business. He's like Bernie coming up from ground zero except he won the primary whereas Bernie came up way short.

It is an error of analysis to assume that successful things were the product of skill, or that failed things were the product of failure. In fact, quite a lot of what occurs is essentially random. This is the entire premise of, for example, the book The Black Swan.

Trump was no doubt suave and learned from his birther experience that there is a vein of white anger ripe for tapping, and that you can often get free press--there are things about his campaign that are lessons for sure--but it's quite possible it could have went the other way even with nothing structurally being different and if Trump had not won the nomination we'd essentially have discarded any lessons from his candidacy.

I also think, like many people, you are projecting your support (I am assuming unironic at this point) of the candidate into an objective measure of their competency. The same occurs by voters who support any party (see the fact that even in landslide elections, a majority of each party's supporters believe and answer polls saying they are going to win or are the best candidates for the job or other objective things, separate from subjective attachment to the candidate).

Finally I would say borrowing Trump's dumb names for other people is, like, extremely unattractive in terms of what it says about your propensity to repeat uncritically what you hear. Lyin' Ted is a nonsense nickname, that six months after the fact no one even remembers what it's about. I find Cruz extremely odious, he's an embarrassment to his birth country, Canada. But he's not notably dishonest and the things he was being accused of at the time struck me as plainly overblown. Trump just throws insults, there's not really any connection between the nature of the insult and the person he's insulting. Saying Lyin' Ted uncritically is about 90% as dumb as liberals saying Drumpf. You, like most people, have the capacity to actually engage your brain so why opt not to use it?

 

[aspiegamer]

Can anyone explain what this segment is supposed to be? He's talking about immigrants that obtained 100% legal status and citizenship who where later arrested of crimes. Like, uh. So what? Were we supposed to know their awful plans a decade ago when they got here?

 

[whyamihere]

My god, if people can't even calm down when national polls are showing big leads and Georgia and Arizona are tied then there really is nothing that will do it. Oh my god, Trump went 24 hours without looking like a giant moron, I'M SCARED.

I'm kind of in the same boat. Trump meekly reading off of a piece of paper that he endorses Paul Ryan does not mean that we are getting a pivot.

The left really loves its self flagellation.

 

[hawk2025]

It is an error of analysis to assume that successful things were the product of skill, or that failed things were the product of failure. In fact, quite a lot of what occurs is essentially random. This is the entire premise of, for example, the book The Black Swan. Trump was no doubt suave and learned from his birther experience that there is a vein of white anger ripe for tapping, and that you can often get free press, but it's quite possible it could have went the other way even with nothing structurally being different and if Trump had not won the nomination we'd essentially have discarded any lessons from his candidacy. I also think, like many people, you are projecting your support (I am assuming unironic at this point) of the candidate into an objective measure of their competency. The same occurs by voters who support any party (see the fact that even in landslide elections, a majority of each party's supporters believe and answer polls saying they are going to win or are the best candidates for the job or other objective things, separate from subjective attachment to the candidate).

Also I would say borrowing Trump's dumb names for other people is, like, extremely unattractive in terms of what it says about your sheepishness. It's about 90% as dumb as liberals saying Drumpf. You, like most people, have the capacity to actually engage your brain so why opt not to use it?

I know this is neither here nor there and your point doesn't rest on it, but I curse The Black Swan and Nassim Taleb with the wrath of a thousand suns.

He has done a significant disservice to the field of Statistics.

 

[whyamihere]

Drumpf was a stupid thing that everyone should feel bad about using.

 

[User 85168]

Can anyone explain what this segment is supposed to be? He's talking about immigrants that obtained 100% legal status and citizenship who where later arrested of crimes. Like, uh. So what? Were we supposed to know their awful plans a decade ago when they got here?

only immigrants commit preventable crimes, duh

 

[Rebel Leader]

WHAT THE FUCK IS H.. THE FUCK?!

 

[remist]

Supposing that the Libertarian party benefits from getting federal funding by meeting the 5% milestone, would they be taking more votes from Republicans or Democrats in the future? I can't decide whether to leave the presidential race blank or vote for a third party candidate.

 

[SexyFish]

Trump calling for Hillary's bodyguards to stop carrying guns because she is for gun control.... lol. Then describing a situation where someone goes after her with a gun and her trying to talk herself out of it.

edit: mistyping.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Trump calling for Hillary's bodyguards to stop carrying guns because she is against gun control.... lol. The describing a situation where someone goes after her with a gun and her trying to talk herself out of it.

 

[metalslimer]

Doesn't Trump endorsing Ayotte actually hurt her Lol?

 

[Gotchaye]

This is actually my argument. That is why it's so important to set a clear example of solidarity and reject and shame racism wherever it appears. That is why that's what I expect from people, and why I'm disappointed. It doesn't take many people saying "well, sure, that's racist, but let's try to get along anyway" to make the social pressure to not be racist disappear.

To this I'd say that the cat's out of the bag. This thread being universally willing to pile on Trump supporters as racists is not going to give Trump supporters the impression that their views are opposed by almost all reasonable people. All people who intend to vote for Clinton and even Clinton herself calling Trump supporters racists at every opportunity wouldn't even do that. Because obviously it is not the case that there is a large majority of people who find Trump disgusting. I mean, one of our two major parties nominated him for President! The Speaker of the House endorsed him! The highest-rated hosts on the most popular cable news channel are pretty much all in his corner. Trump supporters aren't blind - they can see that they're not actually all alone against the world.

The Republican establishment and conservative media failed here by deciding that supporting Trump was better than conceding the election, but given that they've done that there's not much anyone else can do to create the (false) impression that there's all this solidarity against Trump. Attempts at shaming are easily, naturally, and correctly interpreted not as a signal of society's disdain for Trump supporters but only as people on one side of a controversial subject verbally abusing the other. And while I'm open to an argument that shaming can be effective even in this sort of situation I think it's pretty easy to come up with counterexamples.

I think it's perfectly understandable why someone might get upset at a Trump supporter and might be a bit mean to them on the internet, but I expect that this is mostly only good insofar as it's comforting to the person who's upset and amusing to the audience. I don't think it helps stop Trump and I don't think it really contributes towards building a broader movement against the type of thing Trump is.

Edit: Like, is HuffPo's thing where they attach that note about how Trump is terrible to the end of every article about him actually doing anything besides signalling to Trump supporters that that one media outlet, specifically, is against them? When they had to move Trump out of the entertainment section they lost, and what they're doing now is easily seen to be just throwing a tantrum that Trump is not as unacceptable to the American public as they thought he was.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Pigeon, you should probably consider who you're arguing with.

But Gotchaye is right. Telling Trump voters they're supporting a horribly disgusting candidate with horribly disgusting, racist, misogynistic, bigoted views and policies, if you can even call them that, isn't going to change anything.

 

[Rebel Leader]

The commander of NATO says Trump is right (he did no such thing)

 

[Balphon]

You think at some point Trump would figure out that NATO members don't pay the United States for military protection.

 

[Abinash117]

Supposing that the Libertarian party benefits from getting federal funding by meeting the 5% milestone, would they be taking more votes from Republicans or Democrats in the future? I can't decide whether to leave the presidential race blank or vote for a third party candidate.

The actual Libertarian party is a bunch loons. If they do start getting serious, they might pull from younger and wealthy white males, anti-establishment folks, people who are oppose to government interference, and people who typically don't care about social issues. They also might get really wealthy donors because of that there might be tension within the party. It should be pull from individuals who lean to the right and anti-gov folks who don't really go which way. Perhaps, mostly wealthy and younger people who might vote Republican, and a few who might vote for Democrats. Regardless
I doubt they'll become a threat.

 

[BrokenFiction]

You think at some point Trump would figure out that NATO members don't pay the United States for military protection.

United Mob of America.

 

[pigeon]

Given the posts I've seen him make, he's likely unable to support his positions yet. My guess is his environment or sources have lead him down the path and he is currently experimenting to see if it's the right one.

I don't believe this, but if you believe it, why aren't you making any effort to explain that his environment and sources have led him to support an overtly racist candidate and that racism is bad? Don't you think that is, like, relevant to his decision? If you actually believe he's persuadable, then the normalization of the antisocial positions he's taking is even less supportable.

Except you're not actually getting rid of racism or bigotry, you're just making them afraid to speak out.

That is part of the process. People learn from the behaviors that are displayed in society and their reception what actions it is appropriate for them to take and what beliefs it is appropriate for them to hold.

As stated in the shaming thread, shaming doesnt work--not for what media people enjoy, not for encouraging fat people to get fit, and not for turning racists into open-minded people. It's simply not a solution.

I have actually posted sources in PoliGAF about how shaming does work, but I'm not going to go back and hunt them down because frankly this argument is INCREDIBLY STUPID and I'm tired of entertaining it. Social pressure, the threat of shame, and the promise of acceptance is literally how all people learn to function in society. This is absurdly basic stuff about how people socialize. "Shame doesn't work" is on the order of "earth probably flat" as far as I can tell, except it is possible you might not have traveled around the world before. You have definitely modified your choices because of shame before so maybe just consult your own lived experience.

As far as I can tell what people mean when they say shame doesn't work is that they don't like it. They don't like it being done to them and they don't like the damage in relationships it causes or the short term intensity of feeling it creates in people it is done to.

I understand why they don't like it, but that does not constitute an argument for not doing it. Sometimes fighting racism requires some effort. If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud.

 

[aliengmr]

Wow, he is just awful at speaking.

I lold at "How many here knew we defended Japan?"

 

[Stumpokapow]

I know this is neither here nor there and your point doesn't rest on it, but I curse The Black Swan and Nassim Taleb with the wrath of a thousand suns.

He has done a significant disservice to the field of Statistics.

I'm not a great fan of the Black Swan due largely to the stodgy prose and excessive length. The statistical treatment is shallow and excessively obsessed with cursing the normal distribution rather than actually explaining any statistical concepts. I do work in applied stats and econometrics so I'm not coming to this as a lay person, of course. But as a pop-econ/pop-psych book I think it does raise valuable points about the error of conventional wisdom.

My biggest takeaway from the book is that when people "give advice" "about their success", it largely consists of repeating their own experience as though it was all deliberate, when in reality we have very little control about things and the advice in question is banal. Go to a lecture on "effective study habits" and observe 10 people give 10 totally different systems that "worked for them" without considering that, in fact, perhaps the true causal mechanism is that they're smart motivated people and the explanation for their success is really just a restatement of who they are rather than anything people can learn from.

This is especially relevant to the post I quoted, which essentially argued "We know Trump is a good politician because he has succeeded where some thought he would fail." -- this is exactly what Taleb was warning against in terms of poor inference.

 

[Grief.exe]

I don't believe this, but if you believe it, why aren't you making any effort to explain that his environment and sources have led him to support an overtly racist candidate and that racism is bad? Don't you think that is, like, relevant to his decision? If you actually believe he's persuadable, then the normalization of the antisocial positions he's taking is even less supportable.

I did actually.

The only post I've seen is a question on the money paid to Iran this morning and we had a discussion.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Wow, he is just awful at speaking.

I lold at "How many here knew we defended Japan?"

How many people know why such a treaty exists?

I have to say none.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Sadly there will still be multiple presidential candidates that do worse than him in terms of the popular vote or the electoral college after this election.

Those people didn't light their party on fire. Trump is going to go down as someone who did generational damage to the GOP.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Those people didn't light their party on fire. Trump is going to go down as someone who did generational damage to the GOP.

I hope so

 

[Grief.exe]

Those people didn't light their party on fire. Trump is going to go down as someone who did generational damage to the GOP.

We hate Trump, but he is actually the hero we deserve by fixing our political system through rise of a functioning center-right party.