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[Aaron Strife]

5% of vote = 10 million in public funding.



http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/jill-stein-2016-hillary-clinton-republicans-214146

Good luck with that. Nader couldn't do it.

Guis,

In the Pollster aggregate, Trump is now at 39.1%.

I would love nothing more than for Trump to finish under 40%.

Well, under 30 would be nice too I guess.

I could see the Greens gaining a lot from this election cycle. If they play their cards right, we might get a couple Greens in the House in 2018 or 2020.

Nah fam.

The Greens have a major credibility problem. Even when they field candidates for office they're just whatever local whackos are up for the job. No one with any sense of what it takes to win a Congressional seat is going to want to throw their lot in with a party that has no funding and no network.

This is something of a catch-22 because the strategy of minor parties is generally "hope we win 5% in the presidential election and use the funding to build that network" but they're going about it in completely the wrong way. Candidates like Stein only exist as protest votes, there is nothing about her background or experience that makes her qualified for the office of POTUS. What they need to do is start running in winnable city council, state legislative etc seats (which would probably mean starting in heavily blue D districts where there's really no consequence for voting Green), moving up to Congress as these Green legislators gain experience and connections, and THEN picking one of them to run for president to get that sweet federal funding.

Their approach to party-building is essentially skipping to Step 10. It's ludicrously naive.

 

[pigeon]

I don't know if anybody here is following the Ailes story but the rabbit hole of shame keeps getting deeper.

At this point he's:

* Offered huge numbers of women preferential treatment for sex
* Taken sexual videos of women to use to blackmail them into long-term coercive sexual relationships
* Specifically directed Fox journalists to promote the invasion of Iraq
* Spent Fox News money on sexual harassment settlements to cover up his behavior
* Hired political consultants to run PR campaigns against his personal enemies using Fox's budget
* Hired private detectives and oppo researchers to target and smear his enemies, again using Fox money

Basically all of the crazy things left-wing people thought about Fox were more or less true.

The worst part of having such a corrupt right wing in America is that, if Hillary gets elected, Trump and Manafort get busted for working with Putin and Roger Ailes goes to jail for being basically Kingpin with a news network, it will look just like a long-term political crony coming to power and using accusations of espionage and treason to shut down all her potential enemies. EXCEPT THEY REALLY WERE EVIL

 

[Basileus777]

I could see the Greens gaining a lot from this election cycle. If they play their cards right, we might get a couple Greens in the House in 2018 or 2020.

The Greens don't care about the House and are too incompetent to get anyone elected. Jill won't sniff 5% this year either.

 

[gcubed]

I could see the Greens gaining a lot from this election cycle. If they play their cards right, we might get a couple Greens in the House in 2018 or 2020.

The Greens are a useless and worthless party as constructed. They won't win shit

 

[Valhelm]

The Greens don't care about the House and are too incompetent to get anyone elected.

That isn't true. They only run presidential candidates to get those federal dollars, which they plan to use for attainable local races.

 

[Basileus777]

That isn't true. They only run presidential candidates to get those federal dollars, which they plan to use for attainable local races.

They're never going to get those federal dollars. Their plan is completely backwards as without building the grassroots they will be stuck in this cycle of irrelevancy.

 

[whyamihere]

I feel like we won't be able to get a real sense of what's happening in Nevada until Election Day because, while the state could become redder than in 2012, it's also way too difficult to poll to know for now.

That being said, she is spending a lot of money there.

 

[Y2Kev]

If Stein cracks 3% I would be VERY surprised. I mean she is genuinely a horrible candidate.

 

[Man God]

If Stein cracks 3% I would be VERY surprised.

She'll get 20% when the fed's wise up and throw crooked clinton in jail.

 

[dramatis]

Think Johnson can crack 3%?

 

[B-Dubs]

That isn't true. They only run presidential candidates to get those federal dollars, which they plan to use for attainable local races.

They need competent people running to win those races. The only Green party candidates I've ever seen are local loons. More money ain't gonna help them, they gotta find a better class of candidate.

 

[Valhelm]

If Stein cracks 3% I would be VERY surprised. I mean she is genuinely a horrible candidate.

Right, I don't expect much to come of her candidacy.

But Johnson?

 

[User 463088]

Think Johnson can crack 3%?

Between the two, I would say he has the best chance of doing it, ya. I think it depends if any big names come out in support of him.

 

[Basileus777]

Think Johnson can crack 3%?

It's definitely possible.

 

[gcubed]

Right, I don't expect much to come of her candidacy.

But Johnson?

But libs actually run local candidates and have held office in some areas.

I'm not as negative on Johnson because I feel attached Republicans will vote for him and the gop down ballot. I wouldn't be surprised by 5%

 

[whyamihere]

I don't think she cracks 3%. She doesn't have the ballot access to do so.

Also wow Glenn is kind of unhinged on this criticism of Stein.

 

[Holmes]

What House districts can the Greens even win? CA-02? OR-03 or OR-04? WA-02 or WA-07? All seem unlikely though.

 

[Y2Kev]

Right, I don't expect much to come of her candidacy.

But Johnson?

It's possible. I don't see why libertarians couldn't win house seats. I just think they'd replace republicans and caucus with republicans so who cares really. Maybe they won't vote to ban aborting Zika children. They'll still be there to repeal the ACA and other shit.

 

[Y2Kev]

Lyin' Pidgin' has me diablosing about nevada.

 

[Valhelm]

It's possible. I don't see why libertarians couldn't win house seats. I just think they'd replace republicans and caucus with republicans so who cares really. Maybe they won't vote to ban aborting Zika children. They'll still be there to repeal the ACA and other shit.

Right. The Libertarians are evil, but in the same way as the GOP.

And a divided conservative base is very, very good for the rest of America.

 

[whyamihere]

Lyin' Pidgin' has me diablosing about nevada.

I think she'll ultimately win, though the Senate seat will be very tough. Tougher than expected.

Also those ABC/WaPo polls. And Virginia! Also, it makes sense why Hillary is opening more Arizona offices.

 

[User 463088]

I mean, I think at this point we're at a relatively safe 269. (PA, VA, CO). So, Trump can do nothing more than tie. We just need one of NH, IA, NV, FL, NC or OH) That doesn't even take into account the NE-2 , AZ, GA or UT.

 

[BrokenFiction]

I don't think she cracks 3%. She doesn't have the ballot access to do so.

Also wow Glenn is kind of unhinged on this criticism of Stein.

Right? It's like its personal with him.

 

[Oblivion]

Why are we seeing the likes of Johnson and Stein in the news so often in the past few days? Are these idiots gonna fuck everything up?

 

[Y2Kev]

I mean, I think at this point we're at a relatively safe 269. (PA, VA, CO). So, Trump can do nothing more than tie. We just need one of NH, IA, NV, FL, NC or OH) That doesn't even take into account the NE-2 , AZ, GA or UT.

But really you only think NH is reliable of those states. IA who knows. NV apparently who knows. Florida is a nailbiter. NC we are, I imagine, not favored to win but have to be pretty close. Maybe 40%? Ohio obviously is a shitball.

It's like she gets so damn close but the last state is a question mark.

 

[Brinbe]

Recent polling of NH has me feeling good that we got that locked up as the tipping point. And we should be safe in NV. The Clinton ground game will turn people out there. IA/FL/OH are def question marks though. But consider that Trump needs ALL of them. And that isn't happening.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That Stein ad seems like its only designed to peel off Clinton supporters. Even with their lack of a chance Johnson/Weld at least seem like they want to govern. Stein. on the other hand, just seems to want to take down Clinton

Isn't this kind of obvious? Stein's chance of actually becoming President is so abominably small it only slightly outranks alien invasion. Her goal is not to put forward a policy manifesto that can win, it is to put forward a policy manifesto than can get the Greens to 5% on election night and so unlock them federal funding for the next time around. That means trying to find 5% of the electorate that are relatively ideologically homogeneous (so you don't have to worry about balancing different appeals) and relatively disaffected (so you don't have to worry about whether your appeals damage electability/strategic voting concerns), and aiming a manifesto directly at them - in this case, that's a part of the Sanders demographic. It's pretty sensible when you consider what the Green Party are actually aiming for.

 

[Piecake]

I don't think she cracks 3%. She doesn't have the ballot access to do so.

Also wow Glenn is kind of unhinged on this criticism of Stein.

Glenn?

 

[Plumbob]

Recent polling of NH has me feeling good that we got that locked up as the tipping point. And we should be safe in NV. The Clinton ground game will turn people out there. IA/FL/OH are def question marks though. But consider that Trump needs ALL of them. And that isn't happening.

Why not? 1/8 chance of happening if you take a coin flip. Crazier things have happened.

 

[User 463088]

But really you only think NH is reliable of those states. IA who knows. NV apparently who knows. Florida is a nailbiter. NC we are, I imagine, not favored to win but have to be pretty close. Maybe 40%? Ohio obviously is a shitball.

It's like she gets so damn close but the last state is a question mark.

Okay, diablos, what have you done with Kev? I'm not wealthy, but I can pay a small random. $20 and a coupon for Starbucks? We got a deal?

I'm arguing that without any swing states shes at 269. I don't consider PA, VA, or CO swing states at this point. Ohio is a shit ball....that is true.

 

[Y2Kev]

Isn't this kind of obvious? Stein's chance of actually becoming President is so abominably small it only slightly outranks alien invasion. Her goal is not to put forward a policy manifesto that can win, it is to put forward a policy manifesto than can get the Greens to 5% on election night and so unlock them federal funding for the next time around. That means trying to find 5% of the electorate that are relatively ideologically homogeneous (so you don't have to worry about balancing different appeals) and relatively disaffected (so you don't have to worry about whether your appeals damage electability/strategic voting concerns), and aiming a manifesto directly at them - in this case, that's a part of the Sanders demographic. It's pretty sensible when you consider what the Green Party are actually aiming for.

Is the Sanders demographic watching Morning Joe and The Tonight Show? Seems like kind of a mismatch. Maybe try getting youtube ads?

 

[SexyFish]

So The Upshot has increased Hillary's chance of being president to 83% and their pathways to winning the presidency is pretty great at this point.

 

[Kusagari]

Trump's only option outside of sweeping PA, FL and OH(and PA is fool's gold as always) is to win FL, OH, NH, Iowa and NV and tie at 269.

His map is just too small with VA and CO both looking like absolute locks.

 

[Diablos]

Ad buy was $575k

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/green-party-candidate-outspends-trump-on-ads/article/2598710

Ughhh. Greens are definitely a thorn in our side if nothing else.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

just saw a nice hillary ad during the olympics

i dont think ive ever seen a trump ad yet.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

They need competent people running to win those races. The only Green party candidates I've ever seen are local loons. More money ain't gonna help them, they gotta find a better class of candidate.

They never will find a better class of candidate, though - or at least, it's unlikely. Running for a political party is hard work, and requires a deep level of commitment. It's especially difficult when you know you aren't going to win. The only sort of person attracted to that are ideological zealots - I hate to use such a slanted word but I can't think of a better synonym. It's people who passionately believe in a particular ideological which is sufficiently different from either existing main party that it spurs them to action. They're very unlikely to be 'normal' people (again, slanted - here I just mean it in "average set of views"), in the sense of having views most people understood or agree with, because the whole point of the Democrats and the Republicans is that, given they want to win elections, they already (attempt) to appeal to 'normal' people. If they had normal views, they would be in either the D or R party already. It's quite rare to have politically driven people with strong outside-the-norm views who are relatable - most people don't give two fucks about politics and by definition have inside-the-norm views. You need to have absolutely outstanding charisma to overcome that kind of default handicap.

 

[Geg]

So The Upshot has increased Hillary's chance of being president to 83% and their pathways to winning the presidency is pretty great at this point.

They took off Virginia and put Mississippi in its place lmao

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Is the Sanders demographic watching Morning Joe and The Tonight Show? Seems like kind of a mismatch. Maybe try getting youtube ads?

A small subsection of Sanders' demographic love Morning Joe - shared dislike of Clinton. No idea about the Tonight Show. I agree Youtube ads would be a good path for the Greens.

 

[smurfx]

Trump: You people really believed me?

In a turn of events that shocked the political world and threw the presidential race into unprecedented turmoil, Donald J. Trump announced yesterday that he is quitting the race and endorsing Hillary Clinton.

Trump said the only point of his campaign was to show how stupid and gullible many Republican voters are.

found this amusing.

 

[Iolo]

CNN poll, 2012
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/10/01/rel11a.pdf

Stein 3% ( actual result: 0.36% )

4. Now suppose that the presidential candidates on the ballot in your state included Barack Obama as the Democratic Party's candidate, Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate, Gary Johnson as the Libertarian party candidate, and Jill Stein as the Green party candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Likely Voters
Sept. 28-30, 2012

Obama 47%
Romney 44%
Johnson 4%
Stein 3%

 

[Felix Lighter]

So The Upshot has increased Hillary's chance of being president to 83% and their pathways to winning the presidency is pretty great at this point.

So few competitive states that Mississippi has somehow become interactive.

 

[Y2Kev]

A small subsection of Sanders' demographic love Morning Joe - shared dislike of Clinton. No idea about the Tonight Show. I agree Youtube ads would be a good path for the Greens.

Haha, fair point. I think Morning Joe is like one of the worst things on television but I can't get my roommate to stop watching it. He's dumb!

 

[Holmes]

just saw a nice hillary ad during the olympics

i dont think ive ever seen a trump ad yet.

Clinton's the only one running national ads during the Olympics.

 

[Plinko]

Trump's only option outside of sweeping PA, FL and OH(and PA is fool's gold as always) is to win FL, OH, NH, Iowa and NV and tie at 269.

His map is just too small with VA and CO both looking like absolute locks.

I mean, I wouldn't be shocked at this except for Florida.

 

[Y2Kev]

But that assumes he keeps NC. It's definitely possible he loses that, though I think if he is winning NH he probably has that locked up.

 

[B-Dubs]

They never will find a better class of candidate, though - or at least, it's unlikely. Running for a political party is hard work, and requires a deep level of commitment. It's especially difficult when you know you aren't going to win. The only sort of person attracted to that are ideological zealots - I hate to use such a slanted word but I can't think of a better synonym. It's people who passionately believe in a particular ideological which is sufficiently different from either existing main party that it spurs them to action. They're very unlikely to be 'normal' people (again, slanted - here I just mean it in "average set of views"), in the sense of having views most people understood or agree with, because the whole point of the Democrats and the Republicans is that, given they want to win elections, they already (attempt) to appeal to 'normal' people. If they had normal views, they would be in either the D or R party already. It's quite rare to have politically driven people with strong outside-the-norm views who are relatable - most people don't give two fucks about politics and by definition have inside-the-norm views. You need to have absolutely outstanding charisma to overcome that kind of default handicap.

I don't mean normal views, I mean run someone that doesn't look and or sound insane. When Vermin Supreme is more average than you care to admit there's a problem. The third-parties that do win local elections do so because they manage to run people who can not only string more than one sentence together without mentioning chem-trails but also because they focus on local issues. You win local elections by focusing on the issues that affect the residents that live in the district you're running in, not by going on about the NSA when there's a drought.

 

[Iolo]

Why are people polling CO/VA and not OH? Last polls from OH are 2-3 weeks old.

 

[Y2Kev]

But that assumes he keeps NC. It's definitely possible he loses that, though I think if he is winning NH he probably has that locked up.

AHHH DIABLOS

And yeah I don't know. It's like Florida and Ohio have no polls.

 

[Retro]

So few competitive states that Mississippi has somehow become interactive.

I was just about to say, "Wait, where'd Virginia go?" and noticed freakin' Mississippi is considered in play. In fact, if she wins Mississippi and somehow loses everything else on the map (Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico), she still somehow wins. That... can't be right, can it? It's showing only two paths to victory for Trump.

 

[Holmes]

New NBC/Marist poll of Ohio shows Harambe +4 (3.5% MoE, 568 LVs, Aug 1 - 5).