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[Oblivion]

they had the 2012 race pegged at Obama +12 about a week before that election, so you tell me

Reuters was so wrong with this election they actually had to change how they do polls, just a few weeks ago. When everyone else had Hillary +1 or tied, they had her at +10 or something ridiculous like that.

so what you guys are saying is that hillary is doing much worse than a +3 point lead

 

[hawk2025]

Do we have FEC reports for Jill Stein?

I just don't see where this money for ads is coming from.

This is what I see:

Receipts $662,231
Individual Icon Individual $622,231
PAC Icon PAC $0
Party Icon Party $0
Candidate Icon Candidate $40,000
Other Icon Other $0

$616,647 $235,208 $40,000 6/30/16



How the fuck is she running ads during late night shows in California?

From last year:

http://www.adweek.com/news/televisi...sers-are-paying-commercials-late-night-167634


A 30-second ad during Jimmy Fallon costs almost $50k, so she would have enough for 10 ads with half a million dollars.

Then you look at the expenditures of her campaign:

http://www.fec.gov/disclosurep/PDownload.do

And it sums up to $600k as you might expect, but... where are the ad buys?

 

[Gruco]

so what you guys are saying is that hillary is doing much worse than a +3 point lead

FUCK! This is going to be trouble when Republicans ditch Trump for Rubio. We should have nominated Bernie!

 

[Farmboy]

Cool map, thanks pigeon (and Nate Cohn). Explains why Virginia and Colorado are off the board as well.

AZ is looking good too. Hillary behind by 2, but a) heavily Latino states often vote bluer than they poll, and b) she'll actually air ads there and set up a ground game. Will Trump? Unlikely.

Spoiler

Great news for John McCain!

 

[User 463088]

I think any poll in which she's within the margin of error (and wants to fight for it) has a potential to swing our way on election day. I just feel the GOTV and stuff will be so much stronger on our side. I could be wrong though.

 

[ampere]

Also, has this been posted yet?

http://www.politico.com/states/flor...o-no-abortions-for-zika-infected-women-104555

Absolutely disgusting. Dude is awful

At least Ted Cruz is open about being a piece of shit, Rubio tries to act like he's better

Where is Tarkus to tell us how good a man Rubio is?

ayyyy lmao

 

[DrForester]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

YouGov has her up 1 and the polls showing her with significant leads begin about 2 weeks later.

I'd like to see a post-convention poll. I know Trump's repeated visits here are probably "his gut", but I hope they don't have internal numbers showing the state might be in play.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'd like to see a post-convention poll. I know Trump's repeated visits here are probably "his gut", but I hope they don't have internal numbers showing the state might be in play.

Her internal numbers are telling her to pull ads.

 

[Valhelm]

Her internal numbers are telling her to pull ads.

Why would that be?

 

[Farmboy]

I think any poll in which she's within the margin of error (and wants to fight for it) has a potential to swing our way on election day. I just feel the GOTV and stuff will be so much stronger on our side. I could be wrong though.

I agree, a superior ground game should normally add a percent or two. But since Trump's is going to be so much worse, it could even be a few percent more. There's really no way to know. But 2% is my cautiously optimistic guess.

 

[Tarkus]

Where is Tarkus to tell us how good a man Rubio is?

ayyyy lmao

Hey! This is what religion does to a man. Yes I agree, this is not a good look. He is short-circuited about these things.

 

[hawk2025]

I literally can only find $2000 or so in Facebook ad buys for Jiil Stein up to June 30th.

So she raised the funds in July AND managed to buy late night show ad slots during the olympics?

 

[Wilsongt]

Jesus. Even Russia's Paralympic team gets banned from Rio. Lol.

 

[User 463088]

Why would that be?

Like, internal polling is constantly in the field and tends to be a bit more accurate. Her numbers may tell her that she's got enough support that she doesn't need to run anymore ads. It may show her support is more firm. The people that say they're never going to vote for Trump may be baked in. It'll also have demographic information about where/how she's getting the numbers she's getting.

She'll still be polling and doing all that stuff in the state to make sure there's no movement away from her. If she needs or feels the need to run ads again, she can go back on the air anytime.

 

[DrForester]

Her internal numbers are telling her to pull ads.

I saw a Clinton ad last night during the Olympics. Though, I guess that could have been a national ad and not a local one.

 

[ampere]

Hey! This is what religion does to a man. Yes I agree, this is not a good look. He is short-circuited about these things.

Yea he really needs to take a page from Joe Biden and Tim Kaine. Morally oppose abortion on your own, sure, but let women decide

 

[Bowdz]

I literally can only find $2000 or so in Facebook ad buys for Jiil Stein up to June 30th.

So she raised the funds in July AND managed to buy late night show ad slots during the olympics?

This is a pretty big deal IMO. Where the hell is she getting her money from?

 

[cartoon_soldier]

This is a pretty big deal IMO. Where the hell is she getting her money from?

Doesn't she get federal matching funds?

 

[hawk2025]

This is a pretty big deal IMO. Where the hell is she getting her money from?

While I'm at it, should the accounting on the money raised table match the other amounts?

Looking at the donations table, I'm getting:


Total - $220,422
Average - $167.99


That's a third of the total expenditures reported and the debt accounted for otherwise seems to only be Jill Stein's own donation to the campaign. What am I missing?


Even with federal matching funds that would bring that total at most up to $400K or so.

Doesn't she get federal matching funds?

As far as I know, only up to $250 per donation. But we're looking at the expenditures table anyways...

 

[pigeon]

Why would that be?

Because Colorado is locked up for Democrats this cycle. Colorado is a state where Latinos and white liberals faced off against Republican college-educated whites. Trump alienated the demographic that made the GOP competitive there.

 

[nature boy]

I literally can only find $2000 or so in Facebook ad buys for Jiil Stein up to June 30th.

So she raised the funds in July AND managed to buy late night show ad slots during the olympics?

FWIW, read somewhere that it's a $975.000 ad buy and the campaign has raised 2 million.

Can't find the article, on twitter a ABC reporter says it's a $575.000 ad buy: https://twitter.com/shushwalshe/status/761659212938248192

 

[Bowdz]

Doesn't she get federal matching funds?

Per Hawk's research, even if she got matching funds, that'd only be $1.2 million, a far cry from the money needed to blanket the airwaves with her ads like she's doing.

 

[Zornack]

On Nevada

Remember

Obama outperformed the Nevada RCP average by 6 points in 2008, too.

 

[hawk2025]

FWIW, read somewhere that it's a $975.000 ad buy and the campaign has raised 2 million.

I see the tweet now, her campaign raised a million in 10 days during the conventions as of July 24th.

So it seems like it all went right into the ad buys we are all seeing. How do you buy late night show ads only 10 days ahead of time during the olympics, though?

Looking forward to the July filings.

 

[Y2Kev]

Also is it really blanketing the airwaves or should you just stop watching MSNBC and late night olympics coverage on saturdays

 

[thestopsign]

While I'm at it, should the accounting on the money raised table match the other amounts?

Looking at the donations table, I'm getting:


Total - $220,422
Average - $167.99


That's a third of the total expenditures reported and the debt accounted for otherwise seems to only be Jill Stein's own donation to the campaign. What am I missing?


Even with federal matching funds that would bring that total at most up to $400K or so.




As far as I know, only up to $250 per donation. But we're looking at the expenditures table anyways...

I could guess that she got a lot of money immediately after Bernie ceded to Hillary at the convention and a lot of Busters switched their support efforts to her campaign. My real conspiracy hat theory is that she is being given money by Republicans to take away support on the far left from Hillary. It would be like Democrats running ads for Gary Johnson in Utah.

 

[ampere]

They should make on of those 'in his own words' attack ads out of that.

Why bother writing anti-Trump material when his own words suffice!

I'm grasping onto anything at this point but reuters is legit right?

Translation: "there's still a chance for nuclear war, the wall and mass deportations! yee-haw". You still haven't given good reasons for your support of Trump so I'm going to continue to assume you love bigoted facism.

Thanks for the tag btw. It wasn't a secret lol.

wow that explains so much lmao

I was referring to discourse by his opponent. He was not called any of those things by McCain or Romney. What Trump has done is nornalize this extreme, dangerous, counter-productive language by using it himself.

You're right about this. Same goes with the "it's rigged!" nonsense. It's going to have some lasting damage

 

[royalan]

Per Hawk's research, even if she got matching funds, that'd only be $1.2 million, a far cry from the money needed to blanket the airwaves with her ads like she's doing.

russianflag.jpg ?

 

[User 463088]

FWIW, read somewhere that it's a $975.000 ad buy and the campaign has raised 2 million.

Can't find the article, on twitter a ABC reporter says it's a $575.000 ad buy: https://twitter.com/shushwalshe/status/761659212938248192

Then she's raised that $2 million all in the month of July. That would be more than 10x what she raised in June. I want to see those receipts so badly.

 

[hawk2025]

Also is it really blanketing the airwaves or should you just stop watching MSNBC and late night olympics coverage on saturdays

Oh, no doubt that a <$1 million ad buy isn't going very far, especially with Jimmy Fallon ads. I'd guess the money's already gone.

I'm much more interested in the accounting!

 

[Cesare Borgia]

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/762325099785486337

Hannity going all in. There's no way Trump will concede when he loses. I can't fathom him trotting out his family on stage and simply admitting he lost, saying he called Hillary on the phone to congratulate her, etc. Not going to happen.

 

[DrForester]

More Trump Brannigans

http://imgur.com/gallery/IbJAN

 

[Piecake]

Think tanks, which position themselves as “universities without students,” have power in government policy debates because they are seen as researchers independent of moneyed interests. But in the chase for funds, think tanks are pushing agendas important to corporate donors, at times blurring the line between researchers and lobbyists. And they are doing so while reaping the benefits of their tax-exempt status, sometimes without disclosing their connections to corporate interests.

Thousands of pages of internal memos and confidential correspondence between Brookings and other donors — like JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank; K.K.R., the global investment firm; Microsoft, the software giant; and Hitachi, the Japanese conglomerate — show that financial support often came with assurances from Brookings that it would provide “donation benefits,” including setting up events featuring corporate executives with government officials, according to documents obtained by The New York Times and the New England Center for Investigative Reporting.

Similar arrangements exist at many think tanks. On issues as varied as military sales to foreign countries, international trade, highway management systems and real estate development, think tanks have frequently become vehicles for corporate influence and branding campaigns.

The likely conclusions of some think tank reports, documents show, are discussed with donors — or even potential ones — before the research is complete. Drafts of the studies have been shared with donors whose opinions have then helped shape final reports. Donors have outlined how the resulting scholarship will be used as part of broader lobbying efforts. The think tanks also help donors promote their corporate brands, as Brookings does with JPMorgan Chase, whose $15.5 million contribution is the largest by a private corporation in the institution’s history.

Despite these benefits, corporations can write off the donations as charitable contributions. Some tax experts say these arrangements may amount to improper subsidies by taxpayers if think tanks are providing specific services.

The strategy — lining up think tank reports as lobbying tools that echoed each other — was backed up with a series of letters to the editor, dozens of posts on Twitter and Facebook, and op-ed pieces.

“A think tank has more prestige,” Mr. McGrath said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/08/us/politics/think-tanks-research-and-corporate-lobbying.html

I am shocked. Shocked I tells you.

 

[pigeon]

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/762325099785486337

Hannity going all in.

Oh, not this again.

"How could it be possible for Romney to be so unpopular that not a single vote would be cast for him in a black Ohio suburb?"

 

[dramatis]

Oh, no doubt that a <$1 million ad buy isn't going very far, especially with Jimmy Fallon ads. I'd guess the money's already gone.

I'm much more interested in the accounting!

To be fair, official campaigns get more favorable rates for ad time, so it's possible that Stein can air at Fallon time with a more restrained budget.

 

[RustyNails]

More Trump Brannigans

http://imgur.com/gallery/IbJAN

http://i.imgur.com/BY1Qsvd.jpg[/IG][/QUOTE]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/2lXkR8j.jpg

 

[nature boy]

Then she's raised that $2 million all in the month of July. That would be more than 10x what she raised in June. I want to see those receipts so badly.

No, she had 850K as of June 30.
+1 million raised during the conventions (as tweeted), so 2 million.

Got my numbers wrong on the ad buy.

 

[Paskil]

More Trump Brannigans

http://imgur.com/gallery/IbJAN

I move that we henceforth refer to these as Trump Brannanigans.

 

[BrokenFiction]

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/762325099785486337

Hannity going all in. There's no way Trump will concede when he loses. I can't fathom him trotting out his family on stage and simply admitting he lost, saying he called Hillary on the phone to congratulate her, etc. Not going to happen.

The best part of that evening will be when, as he furiously pounds his tiny fingers on his phone, the Secret Service nod to one another, pack up their shit and leave.

 

[hawk2025]

Ad buy was $575k

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/green-party-candidate-outspends-trump-on-ads/article/2598710

Stein's campaign announced Friday that its three commercials will run during MSNBC's "Morning Joe" and "AM Joy" and on CNN, CBS and BET. The spots will also appear during "The Tonight Show."

 

[Tamanon]

Makes sense, as the Green party is nowhere near the level of needing money for field offices or workers at this time. Ads for awareness for possible future growth is all they can do.

 

[teiresias]

Given Obama's approval ratings I wonder how much an effect it is having that he has no qualms about calling out Trump as actually being unfit for office

 

[metalslimer]

That Stein ad seems like its only designed to peel off Clinton supporters. Even with their lack of a chance Johnson/Weld at least seem like they want to govern. Stein. on the other hand, just seems to want to take down Clinton

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Speaking of Jill Stein, I saw someone holding a sign with her name on it at the Farmer's Market yesterday. I thought about asking them how they feel about NATO but decided to hold off.

 

[User 463088]

That Stein ad seems like its only designed to peel off Clinton supporters. Even with their lack of a chance Johnson/Weld at least seem like they want to govern. Stein. on the other hand, just seems to want to take down Clinton

She doesn't want the Clinton supporter so much as she wants the marginal Bernie supporter. The only way they can grow as a party is to get like 5% of the national vote for future funding purposes. So, she's gonna beat that drum hard, because she sees an opening this year (that she probably hasn't seen in previous years).It's nothing but opportunism. She'd sacrifice anyone or anything to get her 5%.

 

[ampere]

That Stein ad seems like its only designed to peel off Clinton supporters. Even with their lack of a chance Johnson/Weld at least seem like they want to govern. Stein. on the other hand, just seems to want to take down Clinton

I think Box of Kittens summed it up pretty well, she is aiming for that 5% of the vote and that's all she cares about. So yes she's targeting potential D voters mostly

 

[nature boy]

5% of vote = 10 million in public funding.

But let&#8217;s not write off the Greens too soon. Remember: The Green Party&#8217;s objective is not to spoil for the sake of spoiling; it&#8217;s to win at least 5 percent of the popular vote. That threshold would qualify the Green Party for public campaign funds to use in the 2020 presidential campaign that party officials estimate would amount to more than $10 million. With a more reliable funding stream, the Green Party would be more able to retain the far left slice of the electorate, and become a perennial thorn in the Democratic side.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/jill-stein-2016-hillary-clinton-republicans-214146

 

[User 463088]

Guis,

In the Pollster aggregate, Trump is now at 39.1%.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Oh, not this again.

"How could it be possible for Romney to be so unpopular that not a single vote would be cast for him in a black Ohio suburb?"

Of course Hannity would never consider that Obama didn't receive a single vote in many rural areas throughout the country.

I'm from Chicago...voter fraud happens. But voter fraud in a general election is rare. It's been 8 years and republicans have yet to point to any evidence that Obama stole anything.

This election is three months away and the far right has already invalidated Hillary's upcoming presidency. Any hope of the "fever being broken" are misguided in my view. The obstruction and hatred is inevitable.

 

[Valhelm]

Makes sense, as the Green party is nowhere near the level of needing money for field offices or workers at this time. Ads for awareness for possible future growth is all they can do.

I could see the Greens gaining a lot from this election cycle. If they play their cards right, we might get a couple Greens in the House in 2018 or 2020.